Kyle Nelson
P
Reno Aces
+0.0
WAR
Age 30
LHP
6'1" / 175 lbs
AAA
ERA4.95
FIP5.46
xFIP10.99
SIERA10.62
K%21.6%
BB%9.5%
K-BB%12.2%
IP30
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.0peak
2026
STUF6060
CTRL5555
CMD5555
K†5050
FB+0.6 (39%)
CT (7%)
SL-1.4 (55%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 22 | A+ | Lynchburg Hillcats | 35 | 0 | 46 | 184 | 67 | 6 | 0 | 27.3% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 1.58 | 0.90 | +2.1 |
| 2019 | 23 | AAA | Columbus Clippers | 42 | 1 | 47 | 185 | 69 | 13 | 5 | 27.8% | 8.4% | 3.9% | 2.28 | 3.94 | +0.5 |
| 2020 | 24 | MLB | Cleveland Indians | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | 54.00 | — | — |
| 2021 | 25 | MLB | Cleveland Indians | 35 | 0 | 35 | 168 | 38 | 28 | 1 | 22.2% | 17.6% | 0.9% | 7.39 | 3.95 | +0.4 |
| 2022 | 26 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 46 | 1 | 40 | 165 | 35 | 18 | 1 | 19.9% | 9.3% | 0.7% | 2.04 | 2.99 | +0.9 |
| 2023 | 27 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 68 | 2 | 56 | 239 | 67 | 13 | 12 | 28.0% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 4.18 | 4.11 | +0.5 |
| 2024 | 28 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 11 | 0 | 11 | 42 | 8 | 3 | 2 | — | — | — | 4.22 | — | — |
| 2025 | 29 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 46 | 0 | 37 | 173 | 35 | 21 | 14 | 17.2% | 11.2% | 9.7% | 8.84 | 8.38 | -1.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | ARI | 30 | — | 30 | 128 | 27 | 12 | 6 | 21.1% | 9.0% | 4.5% | 4.84 | 5.33 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | ARI | 29 | — | 29 | 124 | 25 | 11 | 6 | 20.5% | 9.2% | 4.6% | 5.20 | 5.44 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 284 | 4 | 272 | 1162 | 276 | 98 | 41 | 23.8% | 8.5% | 3.6% | 4.27 | 4.11 | +3.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 209 | 3 | 200 | 854 | 203 | 72 | 30 | 23.8% | 8.5% | 3.6% | 4.27 | 4.11 | +2.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Kyle Nelson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.33 | 21.1% | 9.0% | 4.5% | — | 5.44 | 20.5% | 11.4% | 29 | +0.11 | — | — | — |
| Vidal Nuño L 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.61 | 20.7% | 8.1% | 4.1% | .315 | 4.24 | 20.6% | 15.0% | 125 | -0.37 | 4.10 | 424 | 75 |
| Luis Avilán L 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.40 | 21.3% | 9.9% | 3.4% | .304 | 5.45 | 22.2% | 12.2% | 26 | +1.05 | 2.65 | 256 | 75 |
| Buddy Baumann L 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.87 | 20.5% | 11.9% | 3.6% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.92 | 155 | 72 |
| Brandon Mann L 2028 · 4.73 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.73 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 4.1% | .320 | 3.99 | 19.0% | 7.6% | 128 | -0.74 | 3.59 | 190 | 72 |
| Chris Narveson L 2029 · 4.81 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.81 | 23.6% | 8.0% | 4.9% | .333 | 4.63 | 14.1% | 4.5% | 193 | -0.18 | 4.62 | 249 | 71 |
| Yuki Matsui L 2025 · 4.44 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.44 | 22.4% | 11.4% | 3.3% | .253 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.52 | 126 | 71 |
| Lucas Luetge L 2026 · 5.03 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.03 | 20.6% | 8.9% | 4.6% | .352 | 2.93 | 22.7% | 15.4% | 68 | -2.10 | 2.60 | 430 | 71 |
| Dan Jennings L 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.33 | 19.1% | 9.0% | 3.1% | .245 | 3.85 | 16.6% | 8.5% | 64 | -0.48 | 3.06 | 244 | 70 |
| Antonio Bastardo L 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.54 | 24.9% | 9.8% | 4.2% | .268 | 7.97 | 15.0% | -1.4% | 20 | +3.43 | 2.98 | 145 | 69 |
| Josh Outman L 2027 · 4.54 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.54 | 15.3% | 3.7% | 4.1% | .323 | 5.68 | 12.8% | -1.0% | 86 | +1.14 | 4.54 | 106 | 69 |
| Jose Meraz L 2025 · 4.31 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.31 | 16.4% | 10.3% | 2.4% | .282 | 3.80 | 10.5% | -2.0% | 30 | -0.51 | 3.70 | 110 | 69 |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2025 · 4.68 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.68 | 20.2% | 9.6% | 3.8% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.70 | 175 | 68 |
| Luke Westphal L 2028 · 4.68 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.68 | 22.7% | 13.1% | 3.4% | .321 | 4.72 | 22.0% | 7.0% | 95 | +0.04 | 2.97 | 294 | 68 |
| Adam Morgan L 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.59 | 27.6% | 10.3% | 4.6% | .333 | 4.05 | 26.9% | 18.7% | 42 | -0.54 | 3.44 | 522 | 67 |
| Ian Krol L 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.24 | 23.3% | 10.6% | 3.2% | .311 | 5.66 | 23.8% | 9.2% | 25 | +1.42 | 2.81 | 344 | 67 |
| Jeff Beliveau L 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.43 | 25.2% | 11.3% | 3.7% | .261 | 3.85 | 23.3% | 8.9% | 26 | -0.58 | 3.19 | 137 | 65 |
| Keith Hessler L 2025 · 5.04 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.04 | 19.8% | 13.3% | 3.5% | .348 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.29 | 228 | 64 |
| Matt Grace L 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.82 | 17.0% | 4.9% | 4.6% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.68 | 289 | 64 |
| Roenis Elías L 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.47 | 21.8% | 7.9% | 4.0% | .254 | 4.12 | 17.4% | 10.2% | 65 | -0.35 | 3.14 | 564 | 64 |
| Tyler Alexander L 2025 · 5.28 FIP | 29 | SU | 5.28 | 15.7% | 10.7% | 3.9% | .272 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.28 | 128 | 64 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.