Kyle Nelson
P
Reno Aces
Age 30
LHP
6'1" / 175 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 60 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125134vR 143
ERA5.03
FIP5.53
K%20.7%
BB%9.1%
K-BB%11.6%
ROS IP60
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP
Grades · Arsenal · Contract
FB+0.6 (39%)
CT (7%)
SL-1.4 (55%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 0 | 46 | 184 | 67 | 6 | 0 | 0% | 1.3 | 27.3% | 0.9% | 26.5% | 0.0% | 1.58 | 0.90 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 0 | 46 | 184 | 67 | 6 | 0 | 0% | 1.3 | 36.4% | 3.3% | 33.2% | 0.0% | 1.58 | 0.56 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 42 | 1 | 47 | 185 | 69 | 13 | 5 | 2% | 1.1 | 27.8% | 8.4% | 19.4% | 4.7% | 2.28 | 4.41 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 42 | 1 | 47 | 185 | 69 | 13 | 5 | 2% | 1.1 | 37.3% | 7.0% | 30.3% | 2.7% | 2.28 | 2.38 | — |
| 2020 | 24 | MLB | Cleveland Indians | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0% | 0.7 | 0.0% | 16.7% | -16.7% | 16.7% | 54.00 | 14.36 | -0.1 |
| 2020 | 24 | MLB | Cleveland Indians | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0% | 0.7 | 0.0% | 16.7% | -16.7% | 16.7% | 54.00 | 27.10 | -0.2 |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 0 | 35 | 168 | 38 | 28 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.2% | 17.6% | 4.5% | 0.9% | 7.39 | 3.94 | +0.3 |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 0 | 35 | 168 | 38 | 28 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.6% | 16.7% | 6.0% | 0.6% | 7.39 | 3.69 | +0.4 |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 46 | 1 | 40 | 165 | 35 | 18 | 1 | 2% | 0.9 | 19.9% | 9.3% | 10.6% | 0.6% | 2.04 | 2.94 | +0.7 |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 46 | 1 | 40 | 165 | 35 | 18 | 1 | 2% | 0.9 | 21.2% | 10.9% | 10.3% | 0.6% | 2.04 | 3.02 | +0.7 |
| 2023 | 27 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 68 | 2 | 56 | 239 | 67 | 13 | 12 | 3% | 0.8 | 28.0% | 5.4% | 22.6% | 4.8% | 4.18 | 4.06 | +0.3 |
| 2023 | 27 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 68 | 2 | 56 | 239 | 67 | 13 | 12 | 3% | 0.8 | 28.0% | 5.4% | 22.6% | 5.0% | 4.18 | 4.19 | +0.2 |
| 2024 | 28 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 11 | 0 | 11 | 42 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.0% | 7.1% | 11.9% | 4.8% | 4.22 | 5.01 | -0.1 |
| 2024 | 28 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 11 | 0 | 11 | 42 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.0% | 7.1% | 11.9% | 4.8% | 4.22 | 4.88 | -0.0 |
| 2025 | 29 | MIX | 3 levels | 46 | 0 | 37 | 173 | 35 | 21 | 14 | 0% | 0.8 | 17.2% | 11.2% | 5.9% | 11.1% | 8.84 | 9.18 | -2.0 |
| 2025 | 29 | MIX | 3 levels | 46 | 0 | 37 | 173 | 35 | 21 | 14 | 0% | 0.8 | 20.2% | 12.1% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 8.84 | 7.87 | -1.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | ARI | 57 | 0 | 60 | 255 | 53 | 23 | 12 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.7% | 9.1% | 11.6% | 4.8% | 5.03 | 5.53 | -0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | ARI | 54 | 0 | 56 | 237 | 47 | 22 | 12 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.9% | 9.4% | 10.5% | 5.0% | 5.47 | 5.76 | -0.8 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | ARI | 50 | 0 | 52 | 220 | 42 | 22 | 12 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.1% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 5.3% | 5.80 | 6.02 | -0.9 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | ARI | 20 | 0 | 21 | 89 | 18 | 8 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.9% | 9.4% | 10.5% | 5.0% | 5.47 | 5.76 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | ARI | 28 | 0 | 29 | 122 | 23 | 12 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.1% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 5.3% | 5.80 | 6.02 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 183 | 3 | 165 | 706 | 155 | 63 | 28 | 2% | 0.9 | 22.0% | 8.9% | 13.1% | 3.9% | 4.74 | 4.53 | +1.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 221 | 4 | 200 | 854 | 188 | 76 | 34 | 2% | 0.9 | 22.0% | 8.9% | 13.1% | 3.9% | 4.74 | 4.53 | +2.0 | ||
| Career | — | 284 | 4 | 272 | 1162 | 276 | 98 | 45 | 1% | 1.0 | 23.8% | 8.5% | 15.3% | 3.9% | 4.27 | 4.29 | +3.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 209 | 3 | 200 | 854 | 203 | 72 | 33 | 1% | 1.0 | 23.8% | 8.5% | 15.3% | 3.9% | 4.27 | 4.29 | +2.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Kyle Nelson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.53 | 20.7% | 9.1% | 4.8% | — | 5.88 | 19.5% | 9.9% | 108 | +0.35 | — | — | — |
| Luis Avilán L 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.52 | 21.3% | 9.9% | 3.6% | .304 | 5.19 | 22.2% | 12.2% | 26 | +0.67 | 2.68 | 256 | 75 |
| Vidal Nuño L 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.69 | 20.7% | 8.1% | 4.2% | .315 | 4.13 | 20.6% | 15.0% | 125 | -0.56 | 4.07 | 424 | 74 |
| Yuki Matsui L 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.48 | 23.7% | 11.1% | 3.6% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 172 | 74 |
| Buddy Baumann L 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.85 | 20.5% | 11.9% | 3.6% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.83 | 155 | 72 |
| Dan Jennings L 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.37 | 19.1% | 9.0% | 3.2% | .245 | 3.99 | 16.6% | 8.5% | 64 | -0.38 | 3.09 | 244 | 71 |
| Jose Meraz L 2025 · 4.51 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.51 | 16.4% | 10.3% | 2.7% | .282 | 3.80 | 10.5% | -2.0% | 30 | -0.71 | 3.59 | 110 | 70 |
| Lucas Luetge L 2026 · 5.42 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.42 | 20.6% | 8.9% | 5.3% | .352 | 2.86 | 22.7% | 15.4% | 68 | -2.56 | 2.52 | 430 | 70 |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2025 · 4.83 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.83 | 20.2% | 9.6% | 4.0% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.68 | 175 | 67 |
| Felix Doubront L 2025 · 4.45 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.45 | 23.7% | 9.0% | 4.0% | .304 | 3.39 | 17.6% | 12.6% | 126 | -1.06 | 3.39 | 291 | 67 |
| Adam Morgan L 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.82 | 27.6% | 10.3% | 5.0% | .333 | 4.02 | 26.9% | 18.7% | 42 | -0.80 | 3.49 | 522 | 67 |
| Roenis Elías L 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.80 | 21.8% | 7.9% | 4.6% | .254 | 3.89 | 17.4% | 10.2% | 65 | -0.91 | 3.19 | 564 | 66 |
| Jeff Beliveau L 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.55 | 25.2% | 11.3% | 3.9% | .261 | 3.76 | 23.3% | 8.9% | 26 | -0.79 | 3.10 | 137 | 66 |
| Josh Outman L 2027 · 4.70 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.70 | 15.3% | 3.7% | 4.4% | .323 | 5.71 | 12.8% | -1.0% | 86 | +1.01 | 4.70 | 106 | 65 |
| Ryan Buchter L 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.42 | 24.3% | 9.3% | 4.0% | .202 | 4.09 | 25.3% | 15.6% | 85 | -0.33 | 2.37 | 296 | 64 |
| Keith Hessler L 2025 · 4.73 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.73 | 19.8% | 13.3% | 3.0% | .348 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 228 | 64 |
| Matt Grace L 2026 · 5.21 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.21 | 17.0% | 4.9% | 5.3% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.69 | 289 | 64 |
| Aaron Brown L 2026 · 5.22 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.22 | 21.3% | 12.5% | 4.2% | .253 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.88 | 269 | 63 |
| Chris Narveson L 2029 · 4.83 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.83 | 23.6% | 8.0% | 4.9% | .333 | 4.57 | 14.1% | 4.5% | 193 | -0.26 | 4.40 | 249 | 63 |
| Kevin Chapman L 2026 · 5.93 FIP | 30 | SU | 5.93 | 17.1% | 15.7% | 4.2% | .238 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.04 | 153 | 63 |
| Miguel Cienfuegos L 2025 · 5.14 FIP | 29 | SU | 5.14 | 17.5% | 11.1% | 3.9% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.09 | 299 | 62 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 56 | 19.9% | 9.4% | 1.95 | 5.41 |
| Ross Detwiler ('22) | 5 | 51 | 17.3% | 9.5% | 1.76 | 6.03 |
| Chris Young ('17) | 3 | 81 | 18.9% | 9.5% | 1.90 | 4.76 |
| Alex Young ('23) | 5 | 52 | 19.5% | 8.6% | 1.61 | 4.43 |
| Edwin Jackson ('19) | 5 | 75 | 17.0% | 9.7% | 1.75 | 5.37 |
| Mike Wright Jr. ('19) | 5 | 52 | 17.7% | 8.4% | 1.53 | 6.00 |
| Jharel Cotton ('22) | 4 | 58 | 19.8% | 9.2% | 1.59 | 4.50 |