Kyle Nelson — OGILVIE

Kyle Nelson P Reno Aces

Age 30 LHP 6'1" / 175 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118126vR 135

ERA4.91

FIP5.34

K%20.2%

BB%8.1%

K-BB%12.1%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 5 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL5555

CMD5555

K†5050

FB+0.6 (39%)

CT (7%)

SL-1.4 (55%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	46	184	67	6	0	0%	1.3	27.3%	0.9%	26.5%	0.0%	1.58	0.90	—
2018	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	0	46	184	67	6	0	0%	1.3	36.4%	3.3%	33.2%	0.0%	1.58	0.56	—
2019	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	42	1	47	185	69	13	5	2%	1.1	27.8%	8.4%	19.4%	4.0%	2.28	4.00	—
2019	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	42	1	47	185	69	13	5	2%	1.1	37.3%	7.0%	30.3%	2.7%	2.28	2.38	—
2020	24	MLB MLE	Cleveland Indians	1	0	1	6	0	1	1	0%	0.7	0.0%	16.7%	-16.7%	16.7%	54.00	14.36	-0.1
2020	24	MLB RAW	Cleveland Indians	1	0	1	6	0	1	1	0%	0.7	0.0%	16.7%	-16.7%	16.7%	54.00	27.10	-0.2
2021	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	35	168	38	28	1	0%	1.0	22.2%	17.6%	4.5%	0.9%	7.39	3.95	+0.2
2021	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	0	35	168	38	28	1	0%	1.0	22.6%	16.7%	6.0%	0.6%	7.39	3.69	+0.4
2022	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	1	40	165	35	18	1	2%	0.9	19.9%	9.3%	10.6%	0.7%	2.04	2.98	+0.7
2022	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	1	40	165	35	18	1	2%	0.9	21.2%	10.9%	10.3%	0.6%	2.04	3.02	+0.7
2023	27	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	68	2	56	239	67	13	12	3%	0.8	28.0%	5.4%	22.6%	5.3%	4.18	4.34	+0.1
2023	27	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	68	2	56	239	67	13	12	3%	0.8	28.0%	5.4%	22.6%	5.3%	4.18	4.34	+0.1
2023	27	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	68	2	56	239	67	13	12	3%	0.8	28.0%	5.4%	22.6%	5.0%	4.18	4.19	+0.2
2024	28	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	11	0	11	42	8	3	2	0%	1.0	19.0%	7.1%	11.9%	4.8%	4.22	5.01	-0.1
2024	28	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	11	0	11	42	8	3	2	0%	1.0	19.0%	7.1%	11.9%	4.8%	4.22	5.01	-0.1
2024	28	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	11	0	11	42	8	3	2	0%	1.0	19.0%	7.1%	11.9%	4.8%	4.22	4.88	-0.0
2025	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	46	0	37	173	35	21	14	0%	0.8	16.2%	9.6%	6.6%	9.9%	8.84	8.41	-1.6
2025	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	46	0	37	173	35	21	14	0%	0.8	16.2%	9.6%	6.6%	9.9%	8.84	8.41	-1.6
2025	29	MIX RAW	3 levels	46	0	37	173	35	21	14	0%	0.8	20.2%	12.1%	8.1%	8.1%	8.84	7.87	-1.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			136	3	116	498	115	43	17	2%	0.9	23.1%	8.6%	14.5%	3.4%	4.34	4.13	+0.6
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	30	MLB	ARI	5	0	5	21	4	2	1	0%	1.0	20.2%	8.1%	12.1%	4.6%	4.91	5.34	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	ARI	54	0	56	237	46	20	11	0%	1.0	19.4%	8.5%	10.9%	4.8%	5.31	5.57	-0.6
2028	32	MLB MLE	ARI	50	0	52	220	41	19	11	0%	1.0	18.6%	8.8%	9.8%	5.1%	5.62	5.83	-0.7
2027	31	MLB CTX	ARI	20	0	21	89	17	7	4	0%	1.1	19.4%	8.5%	10.9%	4.8%	5.31	5.57	-0.2
2028	32	MLB CTX	ARI	28	0	29	122	23	11	6	0%	1.0	18.6%	8.8%	9.8%	5.1%	5.62	5.83	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		183	3	165	706	154	61	27	2%	0.9	21.9%	8.6%	13.2%	3.9%	4.69	4.48	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		221	4	200	854	186	74	33	2%	0.9	21.9%	8.6%	13.2%	3.9%	4.69	4.48	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		284	4	272	1162	275	96	43	1%	1.0	23.6%	8.2%	15.4%	3.7%	4.27	4.17	-0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		209	3	200	854	202	70	32	1%	1.0	23.6%	8.2%	15.4%	3.7%	4.27	4.17	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kyle Nelson (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.34	20.2%	8.1%	4.6%	—	5.69	19.0%	10.4%	108	+0.35	—	—	—
Luis Avilán L 2019 · 4.51 FIP	30	SU	4.51	21.3%	9.9%	3.5%	.304	5.40	22.2%	12.2%	26	+0.89	2.62	256	75
Vidal Nuño L 2017 · 4.57 FIP	30	SU	4.57	20.7%	8.1%	4.0%	.315	4.17	20.6%	15.0%	125	-0.40	4.00	424	74
Dan Jennings L 2017 · 4.32 FIP	30	SU	4.32	19.1%	9.0%	3.1%	.245	3.88	16.6%	8.5%	64	-0.44	3.11	244	72
Buddy Baumann L 2018 · 4.87 FIP	30	SU	4.87	20.5%	11.9%	3.6%	.258	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	155	71
Antonio Bastardo L 2016 · 4.43 FIP	30	SU	4.43	24.9%	9.8%	4.0%	.268	8.05	15.0%	-1.4%	20	+3.62	3.10	145	71
Lucas Luetge L 2017 · 4.96 FIP	30	SU	4.96	20.6%	8.9%	4.5%	.352	2.91	22.7%	15.4%	68	-2.05	2.53	430	70
Jose Meraz L 2017 · 4.34 FIP	29	SU	4.34	16.4%	10.3%	2.4%	.282	3.80	10.5%	-2.0%	30	-0.54	3.78	110	69
Josh Outman L 2016 · 4.53 FIP	31	SU	4.53	15.3%	3.7%	4.1%	.323	5.73	12.8%	-1.0%	86	+1.20	4.53	106	68
Roenis Elías L 2019 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	21.8%	7.9%	4.6%	.254	4.06	17.4%	10.2%	65	-0.74	3.15	564	67
Andrew Barbosa L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	29	SU	4.67	20.2%	9.6%	3.8%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	2.70	175	67
Matt Grace L 2019 · 5.21 FIP	30	SU	5.21	17.0%	4.9%	5.3%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	2.68	289	66
Adam Morgan L 2020 · 4.73 FIP	30	SU	4.73	27.6%	10.3%	4.8%	.333	4.16	26.9%	18.7%	42	-0.57	3.45	522	66
Ian Krol L 2021 · 4.25 FIP	30	SU	4.25	23.3%	10.6%	3.2%	.311	5.55	23.8%	9.2%	25	+1.30	2.80	344	65
Ryan Buchter L 2017 · 4.45 FIP	30	SU	4.45	24.3%	9.3%	4.0%	.202	4.19	25.3%	15.6%	85	-0.26	2.37	296	65
Keith Hessler L 2018 · 4.96 FIP	29	SU	4.96	19.8%	13.3%	3.4%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	228	65
Jeff Beliveau L 2017 · 4.40 FIP	30	SU	4.40	25.2%	11.3%	3.6%	.261	3.86	23.3%	8.9%	26	-0.54	3.19	137	65
Zach Duke L 2015 · 4.21 FIP	32	SU	4.21	25.9%	11.0%	3.5%	.250	2.85	22.9%	14.7%	131	-1.36	2.44	215	64
Josh Osich L 2019 · 4.83 FIP	30	SU	4.83	22.4%	5.1%	5.4%	.258	5.37	21.9%	14.0%	48	+0.54	3.41	315	64
Chris Narveson L 2015 · 4.79 FIP	33	SW	4.79	23.6%	8.0%	4.9%	.333	4.59	14.1%	4.5%	193	-0.20	4.59	249	63
Aaron Brown L 2022 · 5.38 FIP	30	SU	5.38	21.3%	12.5%	4.5%	.253	—	—	—	—	—	4.04	269	62

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	56	19.4%	8.4%	1.87	5.26
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63
Jharel Cotton ('22)	1.2	58	19.8%	9.2%	1.59	4.50
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47
Adam Plutko ('21)	1.4	68	17.0%	7.2%	2.17	5.37