Heriberto Caraballo
C Palm Beach Cardinals| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 19 | A/ROKSTL | 158 | .132/.248/.199 | 2 | 0 | -8 | — | .106/.191/.163 |
| 2025 | 20 | A/ROKSTL | 121 | .190/.325/.250 | 1 | 4 | 24 | — | .153/.258/.201 |
| 2026 | 21 | ASTL | 179 | .212/.328/.338 | 5 | 1 | 50 | — | .178/.271/.280 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 22 | MLBSTL | 289 | .181/.259/.280 | 5 | 4 | 54 | -0.1 | |
| 2028PROJ34% MLB | 23 | MLBSTL | 51 | .186/.264/.289 | 1 | 1 | 58 | -0.0 | |
| 2029PROJ46% MLB | 24 | MLBSTL | 103 | .190/.268/.297 | 2 | 1 | 62 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 33 / POW 43
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | DSL Cardinals | — | 129 | 116 | 28 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 19 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 241 | 318 | 310 | 628 | 69 | 289 | 15 | 7 | 291 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 24 | 22 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 45 | 125 | 91 | 216 | 45 | 77 | 38 | 8 | 112 | -66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | FCL Cardinals | — | 134 | 114 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 27 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 149 | 271 | 219 | 490 | 70 | 174 | 20 | 10 | 239 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 71 | 61 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 19 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 148 | 257 | 197 | 454 | 49 | 190 | 27 | 11 | 220 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK | FCL Cardinals | — | 50 | 39 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 256 | 420 | 333 | 753 | 77 | 333 | 18 | 16 | 359 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 179 | 151 | 32 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 45 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 212 | 328 | 338 | 665 | 126 | 262 | 25 | 11 | 305 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Cardinals | — | 129 | 119 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 24 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 151 | 217 | 193 | 410 | 42 | 182 | 19 | 5 | 181 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 24 | 23 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 43 | 83 | 87 | 170 | 43 | 58 | 54 | 4 | 71 | -66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Cardinals | — | 134 | 119 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 38 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 118 | 211 | 176 | 387 | 59 | 145 | 28 | 6 | 171 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 71 | 63 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 26 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 127 | 214 | 175 | 389 | 48 | 174 | 37 | 8 | 172 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK MLE | FCL Cardinals | — | 50 | 42 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 190 | 320 | 238 | 558 | 48 | 254 | 26 | 10 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 179 | 157 | 28 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 61 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 178 | 271 | 280 | 551 | 102 | 244 | 34 | 8 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Cardinals | — | 129 | 119 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 24 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 151 | 217 | 193 | 410 | 42 | 189 | 19 | 5 | 181 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL Cardinals | — | 129 | 116 | 28 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 19 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 241 | 318 | 310 | 628 | 69 | 289 | 15 | 7 | 291 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 158 | 142 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 51 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 106 | 191 | 162 | 353 | 56 | 144 | 32 | 6 | 156 | -8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 158 | 136 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 36 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 132 | 248 | 199 | 447 | 66 | 162 | 23 | 9 | 219 | -8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 121 | 105 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 39 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 143 | 250 | 190 | 440 | 48 | 212 | 32 | 9 | 203 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 121 | 100 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 28 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 190 | 325 | 250 | 575 | 60 | 250 | 23 | 13 | 278 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 179 | 157 | 28 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 61 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 178 | 271 | 280 | 551 | 102 | 255 | 34 | 8 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A RAW | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 179 | 151 | 32 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 45 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 212 | 328 | 338 | 665 | 126 | 262 | 25 | 11 | 305 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Cardinals | — | 129 | 118 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 24 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 153 | 217 | 195 | 412 | 42 | 182 | 19 | 5 | 181 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 158 | 142 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 51 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 106 | 191 | 162 | 353 | 56 | 132 | 32 | 6 | 156 | -8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 121 | 105 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 39 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 143 | 250 | 190 | 440 | 48 | 207 | 32 | 9 | 203 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 179 | 157 | 28 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 61 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 178 | 271 | 280 | 551 | 102 | 244 | 34 | 8 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 158 | 142 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 51 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 106 | 191 | 162 | 353 | 56 | 132 | 32 | 6 | 156 | -8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 121 | 105 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 39 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 143 | 250 | 190 | 440 | 48 | 207 | 32 | 9 | 203 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 179 | 157 | 28 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 61 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 178 | 271 | 280 | 551 | 102 | 244 | 34 | 8 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB MLE | STL | 0% | 289 | 259 | 47 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 23 | 81 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 181 | 259 | 280 | 539 | 99 | 238 | 28 | 8 | 247 | 54 | -16 | +0 | +0 | +5 | +6 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 23 | MLB MLE | STL | 34% | 147 | 132 | 25 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 40 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 186 | 264 | 292 | 555 | 105 | 242 | 27 | 8 | 254 | 58 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +3 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB MLE | STL | 46% | 224 | 201 | 38 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 61 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 190 | 268 | 301 | 569 | 110 | 245 | 27 | 8 | 260 | 62 | -10 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +5 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB MLE | STL | 52% | 286 | 257 | 50 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 23 | 77 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 193 | 271 | 307 | 578 | 114 | 248 | 27 | 8 | 263 | 64 | -12 | +0 | +0 | +5 | +6 | -0.0 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB MLE | STL | 54% | 332 | 297 | 58 | 10 | 2 | 7 | 27 | 88 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 196 | 273 | 312 | 585 | 116 | 250 | 27 | 8 | 266 | 66 | -13 | +0 | +0 | +6 | +7 | 0.0 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB MLE | STL | 54% | 352 | 315 | 63 | 11 | 2 | 8 | 29 | 93 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 197 | 275 | 314 | 589 | 117 | 251 | 26 | 8 | 268 | 67 | -14 | +0 | +0 | +6 | +8 | 0.0 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB MLE | STL | 54% | 359 | 322 | 63 | 11 | 2 | 7 | 29 | 96 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 195 | 273 | 309 | 582 | 114 | 250 | 27 | 8 | 265 | 65 | -15 | -0 | -1 | +6 | +8 | -0.2 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB MLE | STL | 53% | 355 | 318 | 61 | 11 | 1 | 7 | 29 | 96 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 193 | 270 | 303 | 573 | 110 | 249 | 27 | 8 | 261 | 63 | -16 | +0 | -1 | +6 | +8 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB CTX | STL | 34% | 51 | 46 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 186 | 264 | 289 | 552 | 102 | 243 | 27 | 8 | 253 | 58 | -3 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +1 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB CTX | STL | 46% | 103 | 92 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 28 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 190 | 268 | 297 | 565 | 107 | 247 | 27 | 8 | 258 | 62 | -5 | -0 | +0 | +2 | +2 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB CTX | STL | 52% | 148 | 133 | 26 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 40 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 193 | 271 | 303 | 575 | 110 | 249 | 27 | 8 | 262 | 64 | -6 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +3 | -0.0 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB CTX | STL | 54% | 180 | 160 | 32 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 48 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 196 | 273 | 308 | 581 | 112 | 251 | 27 | 8 | 265 | 66 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +4 | -0.0 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB CTX | STL | 54% | 191 | 170 | 34 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 51 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 197 | 275 | 310 | 585 | 113 | 253 | 27 | 8 | 266 | 67 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +4 | 0.0 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB CTX | STL | 54% | 195 | 174 | 34 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 52 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 195 | 273 | 306 | 578 | 110 | 252 | 27 | 8 | 264 | 65 | -8 | +0 | -0 | +3 | +4 | -0.1 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB CTX | STL | 53% | 188 | 168 | 32 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 51 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 193 | 270 | 300 | 569 | 107 | 250 | 27 | 8 | 260 | 63 | -8 | -0 | -1 | +3 | +4 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 1056 | 943 | 184 | 34 | 5 | 21 | 86 | 284 | 17 | 11 | 6 | 195 | 274 | 309 | 583 | 113 | 253 | 27 | 8 | 262 | 54 | -44 | -0 | -1 | +19 | +23 | -0.4 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 580 | 113 | 21 | 3 | 13 | 53 | 175 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 195 | 273 | 309 | 582 | 114 | 253 | 27 | 8 | 262 | 54 | -27 | -0 | -1 | +12 | +14 | -0.3 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2746 | 2458 | 451 | 75 | 12 | 51 | 215 | 755 | 51 | 29 | 15 | 183 | 263 | 286 | 549 | 103 | 240 | 27 | 8 | 249 | 54 | -93 | +0 | -2 | +39 | +47 | -0.9 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 582 | 107 | 18 | 3 | 12 | 51 | 179 | 12 | 7 | 4 | 184 | 264 | 287 | 551 | 103 | 241 | 28 | 8 | 249 | 54 | -28 | +0 | -1 | +12 | +14 | -0.3 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 APalm Beach Cardinals · 179 PAwOBA .301 → .242 (−60)K% 25.1% → 34.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.14% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 34.19% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.17% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 7.83% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.35% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 2.65% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.64% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.016 | ×1.015 | 21.47% |
| Doubles /BIP | 1.89% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.016 | ×1.015 | 1.61% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.94% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×1.016 | ×1.015 | 0.89% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.72% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 3.83% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.016.
Result: wOBA .301 → .242; ISO .126 → .098; BABIP .262 → .244. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 APalm Beach Cardinals · 71 PAwOBA .218 → .172 (−46)K% 26.8% → 36.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.76% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 36.41% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.27% | ÷0.988 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 8.10% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.41% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 1.13% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.05% | ÷0.995 | ×0.920 | ×0.967 | ×1.030 | 17.54% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.896 | ×0.830 | ×0.967 | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.910 | ×0.967 | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.38% | ÷0.973 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 2.02% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 99, 2B 79, 3B 80, K 100, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.967.
Result: wOBA .218 → .172; ISO .049 → .038; BABIP .190 → .174. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ROKFCL Cardinals · 50 PAwOBA .352 → .247 (−104)K% 18.0% → 26.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.00% | ÷0.996 | ×1.440 | — | — | 26.01% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.00% | ÷1.011 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 9.76% |
| HBP% /PA | 6.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 4.30% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.33% | ÷1.030 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.995 | 18.48% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.00% | ÷1.035 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 6.92% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.149 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 130, 1B 106, 2B 107, 3B 100, K 99, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .352 → .247; ISO .077 → .053; BABIP .333 → .254. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ROKFCL Cardinals · 134 PAwOBA .235 → .171 (−64)K% 20.1% → 28.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.15% | ÷1.018 | ×1.440 | — | — | 28.51% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.70% | ÷1.043 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 5.81% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.48% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 3.25% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.94% | ÷0.998 | ×0.820 | ×1.031 | ×1.008 | 12.74% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.30% | ÷1.016 | ×0.720 | ×1.031 | ×1.008 | 1.69% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.935 | ×0.720 | ×1.031 | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.30% | ÷0.975 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 1.85% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 100, 2B 103, 3B 87, K 104, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.031.
Result: wOBA .235 → .171; ISO .070 → .053; BABIP .174 → .145. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 APalm Beach Cardinals · 24 PAwOBA .109 → .071 (−38)K% 37.5% → 52.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 37.50% | ÷0.968 | ×1.360 | — | — | 52.68% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.33% | ÷0.999 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.045 | 6.01% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.045 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.040 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.045 | 0.00% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.69% | ÷1.153 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.045 | 5.79% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.946 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.045 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.036 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.045 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 108, 2B 131, 3B 89, K 94, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .109 → .071; ISO .045 → .026; BABIP .077 → .058. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 DSLDSL Cardinals · 129 PAwOBA .284 → .181 (−103)K% 14.7% → 18.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.73% | ÷0.965 | ×1.220 | — | — | 18.62% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.98% | ÷0.985 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 5.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.10% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 2.19% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.65% | ÷1.086 | ×0.680 | ×1.050 | ×1.008 | 14.34% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.19% | ÷1.206 | ×0.600 | ×1.050 | ×1.008 | 3.26% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.03% | ÷1.062 | ×0.600 | ×1.050 | ×1.008 | 0.62% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.932 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 117, 2B 141, 3B 112, K 93, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .284 → .181; ISO .069 → .037; BABIP .289 → .182. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).