Dariel Polanco — OGILVIE

Dariel Polanco P ACL Padres

Age 20 RHP 5'11" / 150 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.5 · 2031

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 23 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.47

FIP4.47

K%16.1%

BB%5.8%

K-BB%10.3%

ROS IP23

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 23 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$17M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.5M
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$2M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Brown	8	1	16	79	7	6	1	12%	2.0	6.0%	9.5%	-3.5%	1.9%	3.38	4.84	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Brown	8	1	16	79	7	6	1	12%	2.0	6.0%	9.5%	-3.5%	1.9%	3.38	4.84	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Padres Brown	8	1	16	79	7	6	1	12%	2.0	8.9%	7.6%	1.3%	1.3%	3.38	4.16	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	11	10	50	203	24	8	6	91%	4.5	8.0%	4.9%	3.1%	4.6%	3.24	5.55	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	11	10	50	203	24	8	6	91%	4.5	8.0%	4.9%	3.1%	4.6%	3.24	5.55	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Padres Gold	11	10	50	203	24	8	6	91%	4.5	11.8%	3.9%	7.9%	3.0%	3.24	4.18	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	15	1	37	172	28	7	1	7%	2.5	11.1%	5.1%	6.0%	0.8%	5.79	3.25	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	15	1	37	172	28	7	1	7%	2.5	11.1%	5.1%	6.0%	0.8%	5.79	3.25	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	ACL Padres	15	1	37	172	28	7	1	7%	2.5	16.3%	4.1%	12.2%	0.6%	5.79	2.51	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	22	0	43	186	53	15	8	0%	1.9	19.4%	10.1%	9.3%	6.0%	4.22	6.05	—
YTD	20	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	22	0	43	186	53	15	8	0%	1.9	19.4%	10.1%	9.3%	6.0%	4.22	6.05	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	ROK RAW	SD	22	0	43	186	53	15	8	0%	1.9	28.5%	8.1%	20.4%	4.3%	4.22	4.08	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	SD	45	0	47	199	36	12	6	0%	1.0	18.0%	5.9%	12.1%	2.9%	4.36	4.30	+0.1
2028	22	MLB MLE	SD	47	0	50	209	41	12	6	0%	1.1	19.8%	5.8%	14.0%	2.8%	4.20	4.10	+0.3
2029	23	MLB MLE	SD	49	0	52	217	45	12	6	0%	1.1	20.9%	5.6%	15.2%	2.8%	4.06	3.97	+0.4
2030	24	MLB MLE	SD	50	0	53	223	48	12	6	0%	1.1	21.5%	5.5%	16.0%	2.8%	3.96	3.88	+0.4
2031	25	MLB MLE	SD	51	0	54	226	49	12	6	0%	1.0	21.9%	5.4%	16.5%	2.8%	3.88	3.83	+0.5
2032	26	MLB MLE	SD	51	0	54	226	50	12	6	0%	1.0	22.1%	5.3%	16.7%	2.8%	3.83	3.80	+0.5
2033	27	MLB MLE	SD	50	0	53	223	49	12	6	0%	1.1	22.1%	5.4%	16.7%	2.8%	3.84	3.84	+0.4
2027	21	MLB CTX	SD	22	0	23	97	17	6	3	0%	1.0	18.0%	5.9%	12.1%	3.0%	4.40	4.34	+0.1
2028	22	MLB CTX	SD	34	0	36	152	30	9	4	0%	1.1	19.8%	5.8%	14.0%	2.9%	4.24	4.14	+0.2
2029	23	MLB CTX	SD	41	0	43	182	38	10	5	0%	1.0	20.9%	5.6%	15.2%	2.9%	4.10	4.01	+0.3
2030	24	MLB CTX	SD	45	0	47	198	43	11	6	0%	1.0	21.5%	5.5%	16.0%	2.8%	4.00	3.92	+0.4
2031	25	MLB CTX	SD	47	0	49	207	45	11	6	0%	1.0	21.9%	5.4%	16.5%	2.8%	3.92	3.87	+0.4
2032	26	MLB CTX	SD	48	0	50	211	47	11	6	0%	1.0	22.1%	5.3%	16.7%	2.8%	3.87	3.84	+0.5
2033	27	MLB CTX	SD	48	0	50	211	47	11	6	0%	1.0	22.1%	5.4%	16.7%	2.9%	3.88	3.88	+0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		285	0	299	1262	267	70	36	0%	1.0	21.2%	5.5%	15.7%	2.9%	4.02	3.58	+3.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	179	47	24	0%	1.1	21.2%	5.5%	15.7%	2.9%	4.02	3.58	+2.3
Career	—	MLE		56	12	146	640	76	45	23	21%	2.6	11.9%	7.0%	4.9%	3.6%	4.19	4.99	+2.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		77	16	200	877	104	62	32	21%	2.6	11.9%	7.0%	4.9%	3.6%	4.19	4.99	+1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dariel Polanco (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.47	16.1%	5.8%	2.9%	—	4.12	19.6%	13.8%	148	-0.35	—	—	—
Huei-Sheng Lin R 2019 · 4.59 FIP	20	SW	4.59	17.4%	7.4%	3.7%	.360	5.64	16.1%	3.7%	88	+1.05	4.59	120	86
Jake Elliott R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	21	SU	3.82	19.2%	7.1%	2.6%	.353	3.81	18.1%	10.0%	202	-0.01	2.91	354	85
David Davalillo R 2023 · 3.33 FIP	20	SW	3.33	18.6%	6.8%	1.7%	.292	3.31	20.7%	12.3%	305	-0.02	2.96	322	85
Fabian Anguamea R 2015 · 4.77 FIP	21	SU	4.77	14.7%	5.4%	4.1%	.284	4.38	17.4%	3.3%	87	-0.39	3.99	164	85
Juan Jimenez R 2015 · 3.45 FIP	21	SU	3.45	18.2%	7.2%	1.8%	.327	5.51	17.2%	2.6%	80	+2.06	3.45	115	84
Kevin Velasco R 2023 · 4.46 FIP	17	SW	4.46	12.7%	5.8%	3.1%	.338	3.61	19.3%	8.5%	93	-0.85	2.18	118	84
Yusniel Padron-Artiles R 2018 · 3.27 FIP	20	SW	3.27	14.5%	4.2%	1.6%	.333	5.84	19.5%	11.9%	114	+2.57	3.27	243	84
Alexander Campos R 2023 · 4.05 FIP	20	SU	4.05	17.0%	6.0%	3.0%	.281	4.66	11.1%	6.0%	135	+0.61	4.02	157	84
Osiel Rodriguez R 2022 · 3.38 FIP	20	SU	3.38	19.6%	6.6%	2.0%	.306	5.31	22.3%	7.4%	92	+1.93	3.38	124	84
Steven Sanchez R 2023 · 4.23 FIP	19	SU	4.23	12.1%	4.8%	2.8%	.333	3.90	15.5%	6.7%	64	-0.33	3.07	161	84
Claudio Galva R 2023 · 4.17 FIP	19	SU	4.17	15.0%	6.9%	2.7%	.374	—	—	—	—	—	2.86	113	83
Will Changarotty R 2016 · 4.39 FIP	20	SU	4.39	16.6%	6.9%	3.3%	.302	4.23	15.9%	10.2%	40	-0.16	4.23	118	83
Austin Hutchison R 2017 · 4.05 FIP	22	SW	4.05	19.7%	6.0%	3.4%	.340	4.55	18.7%	9.2%	213	+0.50	3.51	235	83
Alex Mauricio R 2017 · 3.69 FIP	20	SU	3.69	16.1%	6.9%	1.9%	.360	3.13	13.0%	4.2%	37	-0.56	3.13	189	83
Connor Eller R 2016 · 4.35 FIP	22	SU	4.35	16.7%	7.5%	3.1%	.222	4.55	10.8%	-1.2%	136	+0.20	3.79	170	83
Ben Sears R 2022 · 3.57 FIP	22	SU	3.57	16.0%	4.6%	2.2%	.270	4.20	16.8%	10.1%	182	+0.63	3.40	263	82
Carlos Gutierrez R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	19	SW	4.71	15.1%	7.1%	3.6%	.326	3.08	18.3%	6.2%	47	-1.63	3.08	122	82
Diego Cordero R 2019 · 3.95 FIP	19	SU	3.95	11.9%	5.0%	2.2%	.237	4.65	13.8%	3.5%	28	+0.70	2.55	126	82
Elliot Ashbeck R 2015 · 4.62 FIP	21	SU	4.62	13.6%	4.5%	3.8%	.284	3.29	19.5%	13.3%	99	-1.33	2.24	229	82
Vince Arobio R 2017 · 4.49 FIP	22	SU	4.49	16.5%	5.6%	3.8%	.237	3.97	22.7%	13.3%	89	-0.52	3.67	118	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.9	48	20.6%	5.6%	1.09	4.04
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Craig Stammen ('22)	2.0	66	23.0%	5.4%	1.19	3.36
Adam Cimber ('24)	1.6	52	18.3%	6.6%	0.75	3.75
Brandon Kintzler ('21)	1.5	50	16.2%	6.3%	0.91	3.57
Luis Cessa ('23)	2.1	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59