Steven Sanchez — OGILVIE

Steven Sanchez P ACL Mariners

Age 22 RHP 6'0" / 160 lbs ROK peak 0.2 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 2 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 102

ERA4.50

FIP4.50

K%19.1%

BB%8.0%

K-BB%11.1%

ROS IP2

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 2 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	11	0	18	85	17	6	0	0%	1.7	13.6%	8.8%	4.8%	0.0%	4.91	3.07	—
2021	17	ROK RAW	DSL Mariners	11	0	18	85	17	6	0	0%	1.7	20.0%	7.1%	12.9%	0.0%	4.91	2.23	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	17	4	43	166	39	12	1	24%	2.5	16.0%	9.0%	6.9%	0.8%	2.32	3.35	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	DSL Mariners	17	4	43	166	39	12	1	24%	2.5	23.5%	7.2%	16.3%	0.6%	2.32	2.42	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	ACL Mariners	16	2	36	157	28	6	3	12%	2.3	12.1%	4.8%	7.4%	2.8%	3.96	4.23	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	ACL Mariners	16	2	36	157	28	6	3	12%	2.3	12.1%	4.8%	7.4%	2.8%	3.96	4.23	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	ACL Mariners	16	2	36	157	28	6	3	12%	2.3	17.8%	3.8%	14.0%	1.9%	3.96	3.13	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	3 levels	16	0	20	86	13	9	1	0%	1.2	11.3%	13.9%	-2.6%	2.3%	3.20	5.14	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	3 levels	16	0	20	86	13	9	1	0%	1.2	11.3%	13.9%	-2.6%	2.3%	3.20	5.14	—
2024	20	MIX RAW	3 levels	16	0	20	86	13	9	1	0%	1.2	15.1%	10.5%	4.7%	1.2%	3.20	3.81	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	1	48	205	49	12	2	5%	2.2	16.8%	7.1%	9.7%	1.7%	3.17	3.50	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	1	48	205	49	12	2	5%	2.2	16.8%	7.1%	9.7%	1.7%	3.17	3.50	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	1	48	205	49	12	2	5%	2.2	23.9%	5.9%	18.0%	1.0%	3.17	2.36	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	22	MLB	SEA	2	0	2	8	2	1	0	0%	1.0	19.1%	8.0%	11.1%	2.9%	4.50	4.50	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	SEA	43	0	45	190	39	15	6	0%	1.0	20.5%	7.8%	12.7%	2.9%	4.39	4.33	+0.1
2028	24	MLB MLE	SEA	44	0	46	195	42	15	6	0%	1.1	21.3%	7.7%	13.6%	2.9%	4.30	4.24	+0.2
2029	25	MLB MLE	SEA	45	0	47	198	43	15	6	0%	1.0	21.8%	7.6%	14.2%	2.9%	4.23	4.18	+0.2
2030	26	MLB MLE	SEA	45	0	47	198	44	15	6	0%	1.0	22.1%	7.6%	14.4%	2.9%	4.19	4.17	+0.2
2031	27	MLB MLE	SEA	44	0	46	195	43	15	6	0%	1.0	22.0%	7.7%	14.3%	2.9%	4.20	4.20	+0.2
2032	28	MLB MLE	SEA	43	0	45	189	41	15	6	0%	1.0	21.9%	7.9%	14.1%	3.0%	4.25	4.29	+0.1
2027	23	MLB CTX	SEA	21	0	22	93	19	7	3	0%	1.0	20.5%	7.8%	12.7%	2.9%	4.39	4.33	+0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	SEA	30	0	32	135	29	10	4	0%	1.1	21.3%	7.7%	13.6%	2.9%	4.30	4.24	+0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	SEA	36	0	38	160	35	12	5	0%	1.1	21.8%	7.6%	14.2%	2.9%	4.23	4.18	+0.2
2030	26	MLB CTX	SEA	39	0	41	173	38	13	5	0%	1.1	22.1%	7.6%	14.4%	2.9%	4.19	4.17	+0.2
2031	27	MLB CTX	SEA	40	0	42	177	39	14	5	0%	1.1	22.0%	7.7%	14.3%	2.9%	4.20	4.20	+0.2
2032	28	MLB CTX	SEA	39	0	41	173	38	14	5	0%	1.1	21.9%	7.9%	14.1%	3.0%	4.25	4.29	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		206	0	216	912	198	70	27	0%	1.0	21.7%	7.7%	14.0%	2.9%	4.25	3.85	+1.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	183	65	25	0%	1.1	21.7%	7.7%	14.0%	2.9%	4.25	3.85	+1.7
Career	—	MLE		82	7	165	699	101	57	11	9%	2.0	14.5%	8.1%	6.4%	1.6%	3.32	3.78	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		99	8	200	846	123	68	14	9%	2.0	14.5%	8.1%	6.4%	1.6%	3.32	3.78	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Steven Sanchez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.50	19.1%	8.0%	2.9%	—	4.25	21.2%	13.5%	138	-0.25	—	—	—
Kyle Zurak R 2017 · 3.96 FIP	22	SU	3.96	21.2%	9.4%	2.6%	.302	3.42	16.7%	7.5%	121	-0.54	3.20	181	92
Matt Pidich R 2018 · 4.42 FIP	23	SU	4.42	17.1%	8.3%	3.1%	.303	4.08	20.8%	13.3%	115	-0.34	4.05	196	90
Chris Gau R 2018 · 4.76 FIP	21	SU	4.76	20.0%	8.6%	4.1%	.290	3.19	29.5%	23.5%	37	-1.57	2.96	211	88
Reece Karalus R 2016 · 4.80 FIP	22	SU	4.80	18.5%	8.6%	4.0%	.298	4.81	14.8%	4.1%	103	+0.01	4.73	149	88
Cody Palmquist R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	22	SU	4.31	21.9%	9.0%	3.5%	.278	6.02	14.7%	7.1%	62	+1.71	4.31	104	88
Addison Russ R 2017 · 3.62 FIP	22	SU	3.62	22.2%	7.9%	2.5%	.324	3.09	25.6%	17.5%	121	-0.53	3.08	194	88
Justin Lasko R 2019 · 3.66 FIP	22	SU	3.66	17.1%	8.6%	1.7%	.286	4.62	15.8%	8.1%	152	+0.96	3.66	173	88
Devon Roedahl R 2019 · 3.94 FIP	22	SU	3.94	19.7%	6.7%	3.0%	.305	4.64	16.5%	9.2%	100	+0.70	3.94	122	87
Josh Advocate R 2018 · 3.78 FIP	24	SU	3.78	18.8%	7.3%	2.4%	.291	3.71	20.4%	10.1%	75	-0.07	3.71	118	87
Fred Villarreal R 2021 · 3.93 FIP	23	SU	3.93	17.6%	6.8%	2.6%	.331	3.64	14.1%	3.5%	63	-0.29	3.64	114	87
Connor Eller R 2016 · 4.35 FIP	22	SU	4.35	16.7%	7.5%	3.1%	.222	4.55	10.8%	-1.2%	136	+0.20	3.79	170	87
Heath Holder R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.94	367	87
Michael Gomez R 2019 · 3.32 FIP	22	SU	3.32	22.6%	9.2%	1.8%	.283	3.81	17.9%	8.3%	110	+0.49	3.32	286	85
Josnier Parra R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	21	SU	4.56	15.9%	9.8%	2.9%	.319	5.01	12.1%	2.9%	118	+0.45	3.76	150	85
Owen Holt R 2022 · 3.72 FIP	23	SU	3.72	20.7%	10.2%	2.0%	.258	4.51	18.7%	6.4%	107	+0.79	3.72	145	85
Aaron Brooks R 2015 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	15.2%	7.3%	2.5%	.314	3.54	13.7%	6.0%	77	-0.55	3.54	109	85
Andrés Núñez R 2018 · 3.42 FIP	22	SU	3.42	18.0%	8.6%	1.4%	.269	3.43	22.5%	15.3%	128	+0.01	2.73	259	85
Gerlin Rosario R 2023 · 3.79 FIP	21	SU	3.79	20.3%	9.1%	2.3%	.294	4.94	18.1%	5.4%	153	+1.15	3.02	248	84
Alexander Campos R 2023 · 4.05 FIP	20	SU	4.05	17.0%	6.0%	3.0%	.281	4.66	11.1%	6.0%	135	+0.61	4.02	157	84
Mike Morrison R 2016 · 4.86 FIP	22	SU	4.86	17.3%	10.7%	3.4%	.280	4.02	19.0%	7.1%	128	-0.84	3.36	145	84

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.5	43	21.4%	7.7%	1.13	4.28
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63
Luis Cessa ('23)	2.1	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19