Jake Murray
P
Fort Myers Mighty Mussels
Age 25
LHP
6'1" / 215 lbs
A
peak 0.1 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION24 act + 17 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 100109vR 118
ERA4.35
FIP4.35
K%23.4%
BB%9.6%
K-BB%13.8%
ROS IP17
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 41 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | A | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | 20 | 0 | 24 | 119 | 36 | 23 | 1 | 0% | 1.2 | 22.4% | 22.8% | -0.4% | 1.1% | 7.40 | 4.70 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | MIN | 16 | 0 | 17 | 72 | 17 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.4% | 9.6% | 13.8% | 3.0% | 4.35 | 4.35 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 23.4% | 9.6% | 13.8% | 3.0% | 4.35 | 4.35 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 41 | 191 | 53 | 30 | 3 | — | — | 27.7% | 15.7% | 12.0% | 1.6% | 6.14 | 4.55 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | MIN | 19 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 20 | 8 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.6% | 9.5% | 14.1% | 3.0% | 4.34 | 4.33 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | MIN | 9 | 0 | 9 | 38 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.6% | 9.5% | 14.1% | 3.0% | 4.34 | 4.33 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 8 | 0 | 9 | 36 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.6% | 9.5% | 14.1% | 3.0% | 4.34 | 3.95 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 211 | 70 | 23 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.6% | 9.5% | 14.1% | 3.0% | 4.34 | 3.95 | +3.4 | ||
| Career | — | 20 | 0 | 24 | 119 | 27 | 27 | 1 | 0% | 1.2 | 22.4% | 22.8% | -0.4% | 1.1% | 7.40 | 4.70 | -0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 164 | 0 | 200 | 978 | 219 | 223 | 11 | 0% | 1.2 | 22.4% | 22.8% | -0.4% | 1.1% | 7.40 | 4.70 | +1.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jake Murray (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.35 | 23.4% | 9.6% | 3.0% | — | 4.33 | 23.6% | 14.1% | 20 | -0.02 | — | — | — |
| Jackson Lancaster L 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.45 | 24.0% | 11.1% | 3.6% | .355 | 5.10 | 17.6% | 4.9% | 78 | +0.65 | 4.28 | 127 | 86 |
| Brandon Hughes L 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.62 | 27.0% | 11.1% | 2.5% | .300 | 4.49 | 24.4% | 14.8% | 149 | +0.87 | 3.62 | 206 | 84 |
| Elvis Araujo L 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.17 | 21.0% | 9.8% | 2.9% | .308 | 5.33 | 22.9% | 11.1% | 38 | +1.16 | 2.35 | 120 | 83 |
| Colton Johnson L 2027 · 4.04 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.04 | 20.8% | 11.0% | 2.4% | .309 | 4.49 | 12.2% | -0.4% | 48 | +0.45 | 4.04 | 106 | 82 |
| Gabriel Sequeira L 2026 · 3.30 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.30 | 21.0% | 8.8% | 1.6% | .276 | 5.09 | 23.0% | 2.4% | 14 | +1.79 | 2.65 | 160 | 82 |
| Robbie Ross Jr. L 2027 · 3.72 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.72 | 20.5% | 6.9% | 2.7% | .287 | 3.19 | 22.3% | 9.6% | 66 | -0.53 | 2.79 | 159 | 81 |
| Greg Nappo L 2027 · 3.40 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.40 | 22.7% | 7.5% | 2.3% | .267 | 5.45 | 16.5% | 5.9% | 79 | +2.05 | 3.40 | 144 | 81 |
| Jared Tobey L 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.46 | 23.6% | 11.8% | 3.4% | .341 | 8.96 | 20.1% | 1.1% | 25 | +4.50 | 4.11 | 158 | 81 |
| Jerry Vasto L 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.92 | 22.2% | 10.2% | 2.5% | .382 | 3.44 | 24.0% | 12.5% | 38 | -0.48 | 2.84 | 206 | 80 |
| Thomas Burrows L 2025 · 4.17 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .276 | 3.94 | 26.5% | 12.9% | 82 | -0.23 | 2.83 | 271 | 80 |
| Darien Núñez L 2026 · 3.18 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.18 | 26.4% | 11.0% | 1.7% | .377 | 2.59 | 34.2% | 23.5% | 78 | -0.59 | 2.50 | 122 | 80 |
| Dario Alvarez L 2027 · 3.41 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.41 | 26.0% | 13.1% | 1.5% | .260 | 3.76 | 27.7% | 17.1% | 129 | +0.35 | 3.41 | 160 | 80 |
| Will Gilbert L 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.26 | 19.9% | 10.3% | 2.8% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.85 | 141 | 80 |
| Adam Laskey L 2026 · 3.16 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.16 | 21.7% | 9.4% | 1.3% | .331 | 3.75 | 18.1% | 10.1% | 167 | +0.59 | 3.08 | 310 | 79 |
| Sean Mellen L 2025 · 3.97 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.97 | 21.3% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.97 | 101 | 79 |
| Peyton Alford L 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.67 | 28.0% | 12.4% | 2.5% | .303 | 4.48 | 25.1% | 13.7% | 150 | +0.81 | 2.95 | 266 | 79 |
| Haylen Green L 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.08 | 18.6% | 10.8% | 2.2% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 104 | 79 |
| Kit Scheetz L 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.45 | 22.9% | 8.7% | 4.0% | .340 | 5.20 | 16.2% | 2.6% | 55 | +0.75 | 2.34 | 195 | 78 |
| Adam Liberatore L 2029 · 3.84 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.84 | 21.1% | 7.3% | 2.9% | .267 | 3.21 | 23.3% | 15.2% | 73 | -0.63 | 2.44 | 124 | 78 |
| Bailey Horn L 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.13 | 21.9% | 12.0% | 2.5% | .322 | 4.78 | 22.8% | 10.7% | 110 | +0.65 | 4.13 | 265 | 78 |