Jake Murray — OGILVIE

Jake Murray P Fort Myers Mighty Mussels

Age 25 LHP 6'1" / 215 lbs A

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 21 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 106115vR 123

ERA4.71

FIP4.71

K%23.2%

BB%12.3%

K-BB%10.9%

ROS IP21

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 21 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	25	0	30	148	45	23	1	0%	1.2	22.5%	18.3%	4.2%	0.9%	6.23	4.00	—
YTD	25	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	25	0	30	148	45	23	1	0%	1.2	22.5%	18.3%	4.2%	0.9%	6.23	4.00	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	A RAW	MIN	25	0	30	148	45	23	1	0%	1.2	30.4%	15.5%	14.9%	0.7%	6.23	2.87	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	MIN	28	0	30	125	29	15	4	0%	1.1	23.5%	12.0%	11.5%	3.0%	4.66	4.65	-0.0
2027	26	MLB CTX	MIN	12	0	13	55	13	7	2	0%	1.1	23.5%	12.0%	11.5%	3.0%	4.66	4.65	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		12	0	13	54	13	6	2	0%	1.1	23.5%	12.0%	11.5%	3.0%	4.66	4.27	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	205	95	32	0%	1.1	23.5%	12.0%	11.5%	3.0%	4.66	4.27	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		25	0	30	148	33	27	1	0%	1.2	22.5%	18.3%	4.2%	0.9%	6.23	4.00	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		165	0	200	976	220	179	9	0%	1.2	22.5%	18.3%	4.2%	0.9%	6.23	4.00	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jake Murray (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.71	23.2%	12.3%	3.0%	—	4.65	23.5%	11.5%	30	-0.06	—	—	—
Mitchell Tyranski L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	20.4%	13.6%	3.7%	.269	4.10	20.7%	6.1%	103	-1.04	3.46	145	86
Jared Tobey L 2021 · 4.11 FIP	25	SU	4.11	23.6%	11.8%	2.8%	.341	8.03	20.1%	1.1%	25	+3.92	3.99	158	83
Seth Clark L 2023 · 4.23 FIP	23	SU	4.23	22.5%	15.0%	2.1%	.287	5.23	18.4%	0.6%	82	+1.00	4.23	128	82
Andrew Walling L 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SU	4.20	23.7%	14.8%	2.2%	.272	3.90	22.0%	8.8%	105	-0.30	3.14	161	82
Brandon Hughes L 2021 · 3.68 FIP	25	SU	3.68	27.0%	11.1%	2.7%	.300	4.61	24.0%	15.0%	149	+0.93	3.68	206	82
Elvis Araujo L 2016 · 4.09 FIP	25	SU	4.09	21.0%	9.8%	2.8%	.308	5.18	22.9%	11.1%	38	+1.09	2.46	120	82
Wesley Moore L 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SU	3.62	25.9%	13.2%	1.9%	.254	4.18	18.3%	5.6%	58	+0.56	3.62	111	82
Haylen Green L 2023 · 4.09 FIP	25	SU	4.09	18.6%	10.8%	2.2%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	82
Will Gilbert L 2019 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	19.9%	10.3%	3.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	141	81
Giovanni Soto L 2016 · 4.01 FIP	25	SU	4.01	21.3%	14.3%	1.6%	.348	4.18	25.6%	15.1%	25	+0.17	3.30	128	81
Hunter Cervenka L 2015 · 3.63 FIP	25	SU	3.63	25.2%	14.7%	1.5%	.381	4.34	22.0%	10.0%	109	+0.71	3.08	194	81
Jake Miednik L 2021 · 4.94 FIP	25	SU	4.94	23.7%	11.7%	4.3%	.308	6.12	10.5%	-4.1%	32	+1.18	1.55	126	81
Tony Cingrani L 2015 · 3.60 FIP	26	SU	3.60	25.8%	12.9%	1.9%	.305	3.84	25.4%	15.7%	128	+0.24	1.68	186	81
Thomas Burrows L 2019 · 3.99 FIP	24	SU	3.99	22.0%	10.5%	2.6%	.276	3.93	26.5%	12.9%	82	-0.06	2.67	271	81
Jerry Vasto L 2017 · 4.16 FIP	25	SU	4.16	22.2%	10.2%	3.0%	.382	3.52	24.0%	12.5%	38	-0.64	2.89	206	80
Peyton Alford L 2023 · 3.69 FIP	25	SU	3.69	28.0%	12.4%	2.5%	.303	4.16	24.1%	12.9%	172	+0.47	3.66	288	80
Sean Mellen L 2022 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	21.3%	10.4%	2.5%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	101	80
John Beller L 2023 · 4.16 FIP	24	SU	4.16	21.6%	14.2%	2.0%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.16	170	80
Keylan Killgore L 2023 · 5.09 FIP	26	SU	5.09	21.7%	12.3%	4.1%	.342	3.73	24.6%	10.5%	53	-1.36	3.73	161	80
Bailey Horn L 2023 · 3.97 FIP	25	SU	3.97	20.7%	10.3%	2.4%	.322	4.62	21.8%	11.1%	110	+0.65	3.96	265	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	25	23.4%	12.1%	1.15	4.68
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10