Charlie Beilenson
P
Arkansas Travelers
+0.5
WAR
Age 26
RHP
6'0" / 215 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.4 · 2026
ERA4.40
FIP4.40
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.6%
BB%7.4%
K-BB%15.2%
IP63
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2026
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 24 | A | Modesto Nuts | 4 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 4 | 5 | 0 | — | — | — | 2.45 | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | 44 | 0 | 63 | 262 | 75 | 12 | 10 | 22.5% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.02 | 4.65 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | 3 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 8 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | SEA | 11 | 11 | 63 | 265 | 60 | 20 | 9 | 22.6% | 7.4% | 3.4% | 4.40 | 4.40 | +0.4 |
| 2026 Total | 26 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 67 | 281 | 68 | 21 | 9 | 24.2% | 7.4% | 3.2% | 4.10 | 4.10 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | SEA | 11 | 11 | 62 | 263 | 60 | 20 | 9 | 22.7% | 7.6% | 3.4% | 4.40 | 4.40 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | SEA | 11 | 11 | 61 | 259 | 59 | 20 | 9 | 22.7% | 7.8% | 3.4% | 4.41 | 4.42 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | SEA | 60 | — | 60 | 253 | 57 | 20 | 9 | 22.7% | 7.9% | 3.4% | 4.44 | 4.46 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | SEA | 58 | — | 58 | 245 | 55 | 20 | 9 | 22.5% | 8.1% | 3.5% | 4.49 | 4.52 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | SEA | 56 | — | 56 | 237 | 53 | 19 | 8 | 22.2% | 8.2% | 3.6% | 4.55 | 4.59 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | SEA | 54 | — | 54 | 228 | 50 | 19 | 8 | 21.9% | 8.3% | 3.6% | 4.63 | 4.68 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | SEA | 52 | — | 52 | 217 | 47 | 19 | 8 | 21.6% | 8.5% | 3.7% | 4.72 | 4.78 | +0.1 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | SEA | 49 | — | 49 | 206 | 44 | 18 | 8 | 21.3% | 8.7% | 3.8% | 4.82 | 4.89 | +0.0 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | SEA | 46 | — | 46 | 195 | 41 | 17 | 8 | 20.9% | 8.9% | 3.9% | 4.93 | 5.01 | -0.0 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | SEA | 43 | — | 43 | 182 | 37 | 17 | 7 | 20.5% | 9.2% | 4.1% | 5.06 | 5.14 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 51 | 0 | 71 | 296 | 71 | 20 | 13 | 23.9% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 3.68 | 4.39 | +0.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 144 | 0 | 200 | 834 | 200 | 56 | 37 | 23.9% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 3.68 | 4.39 | +2.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Charlie Beilenson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.40 | 22.6% | 7.4% | 3.4% | — | 4.43 | 22.7% | 14.9% | 183 | +0.03 | — | — | — |
| Ryan Brasier R 2028 · 3.68 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.68 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.1% | .289 | 3.07 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -0.61 | 2.31 | 403 | 89 |
| Joe Broussard R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.82 | 23.5% | 7.9% | 3.1% | .316 | 3.73 | 21.1% | 12.0% | 95 | -0.09 | 2.62 | 304 | 88 |
| Matt Pushard R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.86 | 24.1% | 8.9% | 3.0% | .242 | 2.97 | 25.1% | 15.7% | 62 | -0.89 | 2.97 | 167 | 87 |
| Simon Castro R 2027 · 3.26 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.26 | 26.4% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .320 | 3.48 | 26.0% | 17.6% | 128 | +0.22 | 3.07 | 185 | 87 |
| Michael Tonkin R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.31 | 25.4% | 7.6% | 4.3% | .338 | 4.05 | 27.3% | 16.7% | 85 | -0.26 | 2.30 | 480 | 86 |
| Jarret Whorff R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.84 | 21.6% | 8.2% | 2.8% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 206 | 86 |
| Trevin Michael R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.45 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.2% | .256 | 3.82 | 23.0% | 13.9% | 56 | -0.63 | 2.68 | 149 | 86 |
| James Farris R 2025 · 3.73 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.73 | 24.4% | 6.6% | 3.4% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.51 | 170 | 86 |
| Brad Boxberger R 2027 · 3.86 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.86 | 27.3% | 10.0% | 3.3% | .280 | 4.05 | 28.5% | 17.2% | 107 | +0.19 | 3.02 | 363 | 85 |
| Bryan Shaw R 2027 · 3.91 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.91 | 20.4% | 6.8% | 3.0% | .276 | 3.53 | 23.3% | 15.0% | 198 | -0.38 | 2.86 | 596 | 85 |
| Shawn Armstrong R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.33 | 22.1% | 9.2% | 3.5% | .282 | 3.20 | 26.9% | 17.2% | 144 | -1.13 | 1.79 | 618 | 85 |
| Steve Geltz R 2027 · 3.88 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.88 | 22.7% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .209 | 4.78 | 22.2% | 12.0% | 89 | +0.90 | 3.57 | 157 | 83 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.52 | 23.1% | 9.3% | 2.2% | .244 | 3.73 | 18.9% | 11.1% | 168 | +0.21 | 3.18 | 253 | 83 |
| Fernery Ozuna R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.86 | 22.4% | 8.7% | 2.8% | .324 | 5.86 | 19.5% | 6.0% | 49 | +2.00 | 3.86 | 157 | 83 |
| Kaleb Bowman R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.85 | 22.0% | 7.5% | 3.0% | .333 | 4.24 | 18.2% | 8.5% | 116 | +0.39 | 3.85 | 149 | 83 |
| Colton Murray R 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.05 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .295 | 4.28 | 21.8% | 13.1% | 41 | +0.23 | 3.34 | 187 | 83 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2028 · 3.91 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.91 | 20.2% | 7.4% | 2.9% | .348 | 3.55 | 23.4% | 13.2% | 86 | -0.36 | 2.38 | 160 | 83 |
| Trent Harris R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.75 | 23.1% | 8.4% | 2.8% | .320 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.46 | 134 | 83 |
| Ryan Tepera R 2027 · 4.05 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.05 | 21.1% | 7.2% | 3.3% | .174 | 3.39 | 24.7% | 16.0% | 206 | -0.66 | 2.27 | 445 | 83 |
| Sam Wolff R 2026 · 3.36 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.36 | 26.6% | 8.0% | 2.7% | .291 | 2.98 | 24.1% | 13.3% | 63 | -0.38 | 2.67 | 178 | 83 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.2 | $0.9M | +$0.0M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | +0.2 | $1.0M | +$0.6M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.7M | +0.1 | $0.5M | -$0.2M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | — | — | — |
| Totals | $4M | $5M | +$0.7M | ||