Connor Wietgrefe
P
Altoona Curve
+0.9
WAR
Age 24
LHP
6'2" / 200 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 1.5 · 2029
ERA4.43
FIP4.43
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%20.3%
BB%8.0%
K-BB%12.3%
IP108
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.5peak
2029
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | A | Bradenton Marauders | 5 | 4 | 10 | 41 | 13 | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | 0.90 | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA | Altoona Curve | 26 | 26 | 116 | 455 | 101 | 25 | 13 | 16.7% | 6.7% | 3.1% | 3.10 | 4.21 | +1.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AA | Altoona Curve | 3 | 3 | 13 | 57 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 11.4% | 13.5% | 2.1% | 6.07 | 5.01 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | PIT | 20 | 20 | 108 | 456 | 93 | 37 | 14 | 20.3% | 8.0% | 3.0% | 4.43 | 4.43 | +1.1 |
| 2026 Total | 24 | MLB | PIT | — | — | 121 | 513 | 101 | 44 | 15 | 19.6% | 8.5% | 2.9% | 4.61 | 4.49 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | PIT | 22 | 22 | 121 | 512 | 107 | 40 | 15 | 21.0% | 7.8% | 3.0% | 4.38 | 4.35 | +1.3 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | PIT | 23 | 23 | 128 | 542 | 115 | 42 | 16 | 21.2% | 7.8% | 3.0% | 4.34 | 4.32 | +1.4 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | PIT | 24 | 24 | 131 | 554 | 118 | 43 | 17 | 21.3% | 7.8% | 3.0% | 4.33 | 4.33 | +1.4 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | PIT | 24 | 24 | 131 | 554 | 118 | 44 | 17 | 21.3% | 7.9% | 3.0% | 4.34 | 4.35 | +1.4 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | PIT | 23 | 23 | 128 | 542 | 115 | 43 | 17 | 21.1% | 8.0% | 3.1% | 4.37 | 4.40 | +1.3 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | PIT | 23 | 23 | 124 | 526 | 110 | 42 | 17 | 20.9% | 8.1% | 3.1% | 4.42 | 4.46 | +1.2 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | PIT | 22 | 22 | 120 | 507 | 105 | 41 | 16 | 20.7% | 8.2% | 3.2% | 4.49 | 4.53 | +1.0 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | PIT | 21 | 21 | 115 | 487 | 99 | 41 | 16 | 20.4% | 8.3% | 3.3% | 4.57 | 4.62 | +0.9 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | PIT | 20 | 20 | 110 | 465 | 93 | 40 | 16 | 20.1% | 8.5% | 3.4% | 4.66 | 4.72 | +0.7 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | PIT | 19 | 19 | 105 | 442 | 87 | 38 | 15 | 19.8% | 8.7% | 3.5% | 4.76 | 4.83 | +0.6 |
| 2037 | 35 | MLB | PIT | 18 | 18 | 99 | 416 | 81 | 37 | 15 | 19.4% | 8.9% | 3.6% | 4.87 | 4.95 | +0.4 |
| 2038 | 36 | MLB | PIT | 17 | 17 | 92 | 389 | 74 | 36 | 14 | 18.9% | 9.2% | 3.7% | 5.00 | 5.08 | +0.2 |
| 2039 | 37 | MLB | PIT | 16 | 16 | 86 | 361 | 67 | 34 | 14 | 18.5% | 9.5% | 3.8% | 5.14 | 5.23 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 34 | 33 | 139 | 553 | 96 | 40 | 16 | 17.3% | 7.3% | 2.9% | 3.23 | 4.16 | +1.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 49 | 47 | 200 | 794 | 138 | 57 | 23 | 17.3% | 7.3% | 2.9% | 3.23 | 4.16 | +2.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Connor Wietgrefe (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.43 | 20.3% | 8.0% | 3.0% | — | 4.33 | 21.2% | 13.3% | 381 | -0.10 | — | — | — |
| Charlie McDaniel L 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.80 | 17.3% | 7.1% | 2.3% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 100 | 92 |
| Dalton Sawyer L 2025 · 4.07 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.07 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.07 | 160 | 91 |
| Brian Holmes L 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.31 | 21.0% | 9.9% | 3.1% | .333 | 4.77 | 17.3% | 8.0% | 104 | +0.46 | 3.58 | 205 | 91 |
| Luke Heimlich L 2025 · 4.21 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.21 | 18.2% | 7.6% | 3.1% | .350 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 118 | 90 |
| Hayden Wynja L 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.73 | 20.5% | 10.5% | 3.7% | .315 | 4.79 | 18.0% | 7.5% | 56 | +0.06 | 4.73 | 154 | 89 |
| Jackson Kent L 2024 · 4.40 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.40 | 20.2% | 8.5% | 3.5% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.40 | 123 | 89 |
| Juan Pablo Oramas L 2027 · 3.99 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.99 | 16.5% | 8.6% | 2.2% | .313 | 3.83 | 17.4% | 6.8% | 186 | -0.16 | 3.41 | 440 | 88 |
| David Parkinson L 2025 · 3.69 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.69 | 19.6% | 8.8% | 2.1% | .303 | 5.45 | 16.0% | 8.2% | 78 | +1.76 | 3.06 | 517 | 88 |
| Adalberto Mejía L 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.87 | 18.7% | 8.3% | 2.4% | .313 | 3.65 | 19.5% | 9.3% | 117 | -0.22 | 3.26 | 427 | 87 |
| Brad Hand L 2027 · 3.96 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.96 | 16.4% | 7.6% | 2.4% | .326 | 2.69 | 32.9% | 25.0% | 241 | -1.27 | 0.84 | 577 | 86 |
| Aaron Leasher L 2025 · 4.38 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.38 | 17.5% | 7.9% | 3.2% | .301 | 4.17 | 19.8% | 9.5% | 152 | -0.21 | 4.10 | 477 | 86 |
| A.J. Block L 2025 · 3.73 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.73 | 22.8% | 10.0% | 2.4% | .262 | 5.75 | 20.1% | 8.4% | 51 | +2.02 | 3.65 | 203 | 86 |
| Garrett Schoenle L 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.62 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 3.5% | .263 | 4.28 | 21.0% | 9.5% | 219 | -0.34 | 2.32 | 304 | 86 |
| Marco Tovar L 2028 · 3.78 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.78 | 17.1% | 7.8% | 2.1% | .323 | 4.69 | 13.0% | 6.1% | 120 | +0.91 | 3.78 | 327 | 86 |
| Luis Leroy Cruz L 2026 · 5.02 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.02 | 16.0% | 10.1% | 3.6% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.02 | 116 | 85 |
| Nick Maronde L 2027 · 3.82 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.82 | 18.3% | 8.9% | 2.1% | .359 | 3.62 | 16.3% | 8.9% | 48 | -0.20 | 3.62 | 133 | 85 |
| Hunter Owen L 2025 · 4.14 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.14 | 21.0% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.14 | 197 | 85 |
| Jonathan Santucci L 2024 · 3.63 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.63 | 22.6% | 9.6% | 2.2% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 118 | 85 |
| Jake McSteen L 2027 · 5.14 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.14 | 16.8% | 7.3% | 4.6% | .322 | 5.19 | 19.2% | 12.5% | 172 | +0.05 | 2.22 | 286 | 85 |
| Eric Wooten L 2027 · 3.99 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.99 | 14.6% | 7.5% | 2.1% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.99 | 116 | 84 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +1.5 | $13M | +$12M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +1.4 | $13M | +$12M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +1.3 | $12M | +$11M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +1.2 | $11M | +$9M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $3M | +1.0 | $10M | +$7M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $4M | +0.9 | $5M | +$0.6M |
| Totals | $12M | $64M | +$52M | ||