Connor Wietgrefe

Connor Wietgrefe P Altoona Curve

Age 24 LHP 6'2" / 200 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.0 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION92 act + 70 ip · rates below = ROS only

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 107116vR 125

ERA4.70

FIP4.70

K%16.0%

BB%7.4%

K-BB%8.6%

ROS IP70

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 162 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5555

CMD4545

K†3045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1.0M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.3M
2031	Arb-1	$1M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-2	$1M	—	—	—
2033	Arb-3	$1.0M	—	—	—
Totals		$3M		$4M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2024	22	A	Bradenton Marauders	5	4	10	41	13	2	1	80%	2.0	31.7%	4.9%	26.8%	2.4%	0.90	2.38	—
2024	22	A	Bradenton Marauders	5	4	10	41	13	2	1	80%	2.0	31.7%	4.9%	26.8%	2.4%	0.90	2.40	—
2025	23	MIX	3 levels	26	26	116	455	101	25	13	100%	4.5	16.7%	6.7%	10.0%	2.9%	3.10	4.15	—
2025	23	MIX	3 levels	26	26	116	455	101	25	13	100%	4.5	22.2%	5.5%	16.7%	2.9%	3.10	3.46	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	24	AAA	Indianapolis Indians	18	17	92	375	85	29	10	94%	5.1	18.7%	8.5%	10.2%	3.0%	3.53	4.26	+1.0
ROS	24	MLB	PIT	12	12	70	295	47	22	9	100%	5.8	16.0%	7.4%	8.6%	3.0%	4.70	4.70	+0.0
ROS	24	MLB	PIT	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	16.0%	7.4%	8.6%	3.0%	4.69	4.69	-0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB	PIT	—	—	162	670	132	51	19	—	—	19.7%	7.6%	12.1%	2.8%	4.04	4.45	+1.8
2026 FULL	24	MLB	PIT	—	—	1	6	1	0	0	—	—	16.0%	7.4%	8.6%	3.0%	4.69	4.31	+0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	25	MLB	PIT	13	13	76	323	56	24	10	100%	5.9	17.3%	7.4%	9.9%	3.0%	4.62	4.59	+0.3
2028	26	MLB	PIT	13	13	76	323	58	24	10	100%	5.9	18.0%	7.5%	10.5%	3.0%	4.56	4.54	+0.3
2029	27	MLB	PIT	13	13	75	318	58	24	10	100%	5.8	18.3%	7.7%	10.6%	3.0%	4.56	4.57	+0.3
2030	28	MLB	PIT	12	12	73	309	56	24	10	100%	6.1	18.3%	7.9%	10.4%	3.1%	4.61	4.65	+0.2
2031	29	MLB	PIT	12	12	70	295	53	24	10	100%	5.8	18.0%	8.1%	9.9%	3.3%	4.71	4.78	-0.0
2032	30	MLB	PIT	11	11	66	277	49	23	10	100%	6.0	17.7%	8.4%	9.3%	3.5%	4.86	4.96	-0.2
2033	31	MLB	PIT	10	10	61	258	45	23	10	100%	6.1	17.3%	8.8%	8.5%	3.7%	5.04	5.16	-0.4
2027	25	MLB	PIT	6	6	34	144	25	11	4	100%	5.7	17.3%	7.4%	9.9%	3.0%	4.61	4.58	-0.0
2028	26	MLB	PIT	8	8	51	215	39	16	6	100%	6.4	18.0%	7.5%	10.5%	3.0%	4.55	4.53	+0.0
2029	27	MLB	PIT	10	10	59	249	46	19	7	100%	5.9	18.3%	7.7%	10.6%	3.0%	4.55	4.56	-0.0
2030	28	MLB	PIT	10	10	62	262	48	21	8	100%	6.2	18.3%	7.9%	10.4%	3.1%	4.60	4.64	-0.0
2031	29	MLB	PIT	10	10	61	258	46	21	8	100%	6.1	18.0%	8.1%	9.9%	3.3%	4.70	4.77	-0.1
2032	30	MLB	PIT	10	10	59	249	44	21	9	100%	5.9	17.7%	8.4%	9.3%	3.5%	4.85	4.95	-0.3
2033	31	MLB	PIT	9	9	56	236	41	21	9	100%	6.2	17.3%	8.8%	8.5%	3.7%	5.03	5.15	-0.4
▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections)
Career	—			64	64	382	1615	289	129	52	100%	6.0	17.9%	8.0%	9.9%	3.2%	4.71	4.37	+4.6
/ 200 IP	—			33	33	200	844	151	67	27	100%	6.0	17.9%	8.0%	9.9%	3.2%	4.71	4.37	+2.4
Career	—			49	47	218	871	159	64	26	96%	4.4	18.3%	7.4%	10.9%	3.0%	3.18	4.11	+3.3
/ 200 IP	—			45	43	200	800	146	59	24	96%	4.4	18.3%	7.4%	10.9%	3.0%	3.18	4.11	+3.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Connor Wietgrefe (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.70	16.0%	7.4%	3.0%	—	4.57	17.9%	10.3%	228	-0.13	—	—	—
Sebastian Gongora L 2026 · 3.81 FIP	24	SP	3.81	18.5%	7.5%	2.4%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	152	84
Kyle Twomey L 2025 · 3.89 FIP	23	SP	3.89	14.8%	7.9%	1.9%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.89	141	84
Jordan Fowler L 2026 · 4.30 FIP	24	SP	4.30	13.2%	7.9%	2.4%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	4.30	124	84
Jake Zokan L 2026 · 5.12 FIP	24	SP	5.12	12.5%	9.9%	3.3%	.292	1.80	24.2%	22.5%	37	-3.32	1.80	120	82
Juan Pablo Oramas L 2027 · 3.95 FIP	25	SP	3.95	16.5%	8.6%	2.1%	.313	3.78	17.4%	6.8%	186	-0.17	3.37	440	82
Eric Jokisch L 2028 · 4.47 FIP	26	SP	4.47	11.1%	7.1%	2.6%	.307	4.10	14.7%	6.8%	342	-0.37	3.80	412	80
James Paxton L 2028 · 4.26 FIP	26	SP	4.26	18.9%	9.4%	2.8%	.288	3.00	27.7%	21.7%	468	-1.26	2.48	924	80
Zach Thornton L 2026 · 4.22 FIP	24	SP	4.22	20.9%	10.1%	2.9%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	2.95	221	79
Miguel Cienfuegos L 2028 · 5.52 FIP	26	SP	5.52	13.6%	10.5%	4.1%	.257	4.63	14.5%	5.5%	228	-0.89	3.09	299	79
Aidan Deakins L 2024 · 5.29 FIP	22	SP	5.29	17.1%	11.1%	4.1%	.267	—	—	—	—	—	3.83	119	78
Adalberto Mejía L 2026 · 3.96 FIP	24	SP	3.96	18.7%	8.3%	2.5%	.313	3.76	19.5%	9.3%	117	-0.20	3.39	427	78
Brian Holmes L 2026 · 4.25 FIP	24	SP-	4.25	21.0%	9.9%	3.0%	.333	4.75	17.3%	8.0%	104	+0.50	3.42	205	78
Brandon Schaeffer L 2025 · 4.08 FIP	23	SP	4.08	16.4%	8.5%	2.4%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	134	78
Chipper Smith L 2027 · 3.83 FIP	25	SP-	3.83	15.6%	9.5%	1.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.83	109	77
Matt Lujan L 2028 · 4.25 FIP	26	SP	4.25	15.5%	10.0%	2.2%	.326	5.04	16.0%	7.6%	119	+0.79	4.25	227	77
Jordan Carr L 2027 · 3.86 FIP	25	SP-	3.86	12.5%	5.2%	2.1%	.304	3.87	14.9%	6.2%	162	+0.01	3.39	261	77
Austin Krob L 2026 · 3.80 FIP	24	SP	3.80	18.2%	9.0%	2.0%	.333	4.89	16.4%	0.1%	47	+1.09	3.73	280	77
Tim Cate L 2026 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	17.4%	8.9%	2.8%	.293	4.44	21.0%	7.2%	98	+0.13	3.13	469	77
Bryan Radziewski L 2025 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	16.4%	10.5%	2.1%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.19	106	77
Dalton Pence L 2025 · 3.89 FIP	23	SP	3.89	22.0%	8.1%	3.0%	.254	—	—	—	—	—	3.32	153	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	Yrs	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	8	72	17.6%	7.9%	1.23	4.70
Luis Cessa ('23)	8	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43
Shane Greene ('21)	7	56	21.4%	8.5%	1.16	4.67
Matt Wisler ('22)	8	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Bryan Shaw ('23)	8	64	21.4%	9.4%	1.12	4.19
Drew VerHagen ('23)	6	43	19.7%	9.4%	1.40	4.82
Tyler Duffey ('22)	8	59	23.0%	6.8%	1.25	4.57