Connor Wietgrefe
P
Altoona Curve
Age 24
LHP
6'2" / 200 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 1.0 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION92 act + 70 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 107116vR 125
ERA4.70
FIP4.70
K%16.0%
BB%7.4%
K-BB%8.6%
ROS IP70
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 162 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 22 | A | Bradenton Marauders | 5 | 4 | 10 | 41 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 80% | 2.0 | 31.7% | 4.9% | 26.8% | 2.4% | 0.90 | 2.38 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A | Bradenton Marauders | 5 | 4 | 10 | 41 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 80% | 2.0 | 31.7% | 4.9% | 26.8% | 2.4% | 0.90 | 2.40 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 26 | 26 | 116 | 455 | 101 | 25 | 13 | 100% | 4.5 | 16.7% | 6.7% | 10.0% | 2.9% | 3.10 | 4.15 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 26 | 26 | 116 | 455 | 101 | 25 | 13 | 100% | 4.5 | 22.2% | 5.5% | 16.7% | 2.9% | 3.10 | 3.46 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | 18 | 17 | 92 | 375 | 85 | 29 | 10 | 94% | 5.1 | 18.7% | 8.5% | 10.2% | 3.0% | 3.53 | 4.26 | +1.0 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | PIT | 12 | 12 | 70 | 295 | 47 | 22 | 9 | 100% | 5.8 | 16.0% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 3.0% | 4.70 | 4.70 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | PIT | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100% | 1.0 | 16.0% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 3.0% | 4.69 | 4.69 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | PIT | — | — | 162 | 670 | 132 | 51 | 19 | — | — | 19.7% | 7.6% | 12.1% | 2.8% | 4.04 | 4.45 | +1.8 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | PIT | — | — | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 16.0% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 3.0% | 4.69 | 4.31 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | PIT | 13 | 13 | 76 | 323 | 56 | 24 | 10 | 100% | 5.9 | 17.3% | 7.4% | 9.9% | 3.0% | 4.62 | 4.59 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | PIT | 13 | 13 | 76 | 323 | 58 | 24 | 10 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.0% | 7.5% | 10.5% | 3.0% | 4.56 | 4.54 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | PIT | 13 | 13 | 75 | 318 | 58 | 24 | 10 | 100% | 5.8 | 18.3% | 7.7% | 10.6% | 3.0% | 4.56 | 4.57 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | PIT | 12 | 12 | 73 | 309 | 56 | 24 | 10 | 100% | 6.1 | 18.3% | 7.9% | 10.4% | 3.1% | 4.61 | 4.65 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | PIT | 12 | 12 | 70 | 295 | 53 | 24 | 10 | 100% | 5.8 | 18.0% | 8.1% | 9.9% | 3.3% | 4.71 | 4.78 | -0.0 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | PIT | 11 | 11 | 66 | 277 | 49 | 23 | 10 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.7% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 3.5% | 4.86 | 4.96 | -0.2 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | PIT | 10 | 10 | 61 | 258 | 45 | 23 | 10 | 100% | 6.1 | 17.3% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 3.7% | 5.04 | 5.16 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | PIT | 6 | 6 | 34 | 144 | 25 | 11 | 4 | 100% | 5.7 | 17.3% | 7.4% | 9.9% | 3.0% | 4.61 | 4.58 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | PIT | 8 | 8 | 51 | 215 | 39 | 16 | 6 | 100% | 6.4 | 18.0% | 7.5% | 10.5% | 3.0% | 4.55 | 4.53 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | PIT | 10 | 10 | 59 | 249 | 46 | 19 | 7 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.3% | 7.7% | 10.6% | 3.0% | 4.55 | 4.56 | -0.0 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | PIT | 10 | 10 | 62 | 262 | 48 | 21 | 8 | 100% | 6.2 | 18.3% | 7.9% | 10.4% | 3.1% | 4.60 | 4.64 | -0.0 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | PIT | 10 | 10 | 61 | 258 | 46 | 21 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 18.0% | 8.1% | 9.9% | 3.3% | 4.70 | 4.77 | -0.1 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | PIT | 10 | 10 | 59 | 249 | 44 | 21 | 9 | 100% | 5.9 | 17.7% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 3.5% | 4.85 | 4.95 | -0.3 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | PIT | 9 | 9 | 56 | 236 | 41 | 21 | 9 | 100% | 6.2 | 17.3% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 3.7% | 5.03 | 5.15 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 64 | 64 | 382 | 1615 | 289 | 129 | 52 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.9% | 8.0% | 9.9% | 3.2% | 4.71 | 4.37 | +4.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 151 | 67 | 27 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.9% | 8.0% | 9.9% | 3.2% | 4.71 | 4.37 | +2.4 | ||
| Career | — | 49 | 47 | 218 | 871 | 159 | 64 | 26 | 96% | 4.4 | 18.3% | 7.4% | 10.9% | 3.0% | 3.18 | 4.11 | +3.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 45 | 43 | 200 | 800 | 146 | 59 | 24 | 96% | 4.4 | 18.3% | 7.4% | 10.9% | 3.0% | 3.18 | 4.11 | +3.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Connor Wietgrefe (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.70 | 16.0% | 7.4% | 3.0% | — | 4.57 | 17.9% | 10.3% | 228 | -0.13 | — | — | — |
| Sebastian Gongora L 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.81 | 18.5% | 7.5% | 2.4% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 152 | 84 |
| Kyle Twomey L 2025 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.89 | 14.8% | 7.9% | 1.9% | .353 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.89 | 141 | 84 |
| Jordan Fowler L 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.30 | 13.2% | 7.9% | 2.4% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.30 | 124 | 84 |
| Jake Zokan L 2026 · 5.12 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.12 | 12.5% | 9.9% | 3.3% | .292 | 1.80 | 24.2% | 22.5% | 37 | -3.32 | 1.80 | 120 | 82 |
| Juan Pablo Oramas L 2027 · 3.95 FIP | 25 | SP | 3.95 | 16.5% | 8.6% | 2.1% | .313 | 3.78 | 17.4% | 6.8% | 186 | -0.17 | 3.37 | 440 | 82 |
| Eric Jokisch L 2028 · 4.47 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.47 | 11.1% | 7.1% | 2.6% | .307 | 4.10 | 14.7% | 6.8% | 342 | -0.37 | 3.80 | 412 | 80 |
| James Paxton L 2028 · 4.26 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.26 | 18.9% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .288 | 3.00 | 27.7% | 21.7% | 468 | -1.26 | 2.48 | 924 | 80 |
| Zach Thornton L 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.22 | 20.9% | 10.1% | 2.9% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.95 | 221 | 79 |
| Miguel Cienfuegos L 2028 · 5.52 FIP | 26 | SP | 5.52 | 13.6% | 10.5% | 4.1% | .257 | 4.63 | 14.5% | 5.5% | 228 | -0.89 | 3.09 | 299 | 79 |
| Aidan Deakins L 2024 · 5.29 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.29 | 17.1% | 11.1% | 4.1% | .267 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 119 | 78 |
| Adalberto Mejía L 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.96 | 18.7% | 8.3% | 2.5% | .313 | 3.76 | 19.5% | 9.3% | 117 | -0.20 | 3.39 | 427 | 78 |
| Brian Holmes L 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.25 | 21.0% | 9.9% | 3.0% | .333 | 4.75 | 17.3% | 8.0% | 104 | +0.50 | 3.42 | 205 | 78 |
| Brandon Schaeffer L 2025 · 4.08 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.08 | 16.4% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .296 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.08 | 134 | 78 |
| Chipper Smith L 2027 · 3.83 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.83 | 15.6% | 9.5% | 1.5% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 109 | 77 |
| Matt Lujan L 2028 · 4.25 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.25 | 15.5% | 10.0% | 2.2% | .326 | 5.04 | 16.0% | 7.6% | 119 | +0.79 | 4.25 | 227 | 77 |
| Jordan Carr L 2027 · 3.86 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.86 | 12.5% | 5.2% | 2.1% | .304 | 3.87 | 14.9% | 6.2% | 162 | +0.01 | 3.39 | 261 | 77 |
| Austin Krob L 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.80 | 18.2% | 9.0% | 2.0% | .333 | 4.89 | 16.4% | 0.1% | 47 | +1.09 | 3.73 | 280 | 77 |
| Tim Cate L 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.31 | 17.4% | 8.9% | 2.8% | .293 | 4.44 | 21.0% | 7.2% | 98 | +0.13 | 3.13 | 469 | 77 |
| Bryan Radziewski L 2025 · 4.19 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.19 | 16.4% | 10.5% | 2.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.19 | 106 | 77 |
| Dalton Pence L 2025 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.89 | 22.0% | 8.1% | 3.0% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.32 | 153 | 77 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 8 | 72 | 17.6% | 7.9% | 1.23 | 4.70 |
| Luis Cessa ('23) | 8 | 53 | 18.3% | 7.8% | 1.40 | 4.43 |
| Shane Greene ('21) | 7 | 56 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 1.16 | 4.67 |
| Matt Wisler ('22) | 8 | 63 | 20.1% | 7.6% | 1.40 | 4.59 |
| Bryan Shaw ('23) | 8 | 64 | 21.4% | 9.4% | 1.12 | 4.19 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Tyler Duffey ('22) | 8 | 59 | 23.0% | 6.8% | 1.25 | 4.57 |