Connor Wietgrefe

P Indianapolis Indians

Age 25 LHP 6'2" / 200 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.5 · 2028

Overview

AAAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

OGV OFP35OGV rank#423ETA2029MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	APIT	5	4	10	0.90	2.40	31.7%	4.9%	—	K 31.7% · BB 4.9% · FIP 2.38
2025	23	MIX3 levels	26	26	116	3.10	3.46	22.2%	5.5%	—	K 16.7% · BB 6.7% · FIP 4.22
2026	24	MIX2 levels	29	28	151	3.27	3.39	21.3%	8.3%	—	K 17.8% · BB 8.2% · FIP 3.83
2027PROJ	25	MLBPIT	2	2	9	4.50	4.50	16.9%	7.9%	0.1
2028PROJ37% MLB	26	MLBPIT	7	7	43	4.33	4.30	18.1%	7.8%	0.5
2029PROJ53% MLB	27	MLBPIT	10	10	57	4.33	4.33	18.4%	7.9%	0.6

Next 3 projected WAR 1.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$1M2033Arb-2$1M2034Arb-3$0.6M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.7 / P90 7.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 84%

CompsJuan Pablo Oramas (age 25) · Joe Saunders (age 25) · Scott Downs (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 102111vR 119

ERA4.50

FIP4.50

K%16.9%

BB%7.9%

K-BB%9.1%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$21M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2032	Arb-1	$1M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.4M
2033	Arb-2	$1M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.2M
2034	Arb-3	$0.6M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$8M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	22	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	5	4	10	41	13	2	1	80%	2.0	31.7%	4.9%	26.8%	2.4%	0.90	2.38	—
2024	22	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	5	4	10	41	13	2	1	80%	2.0	31.7%	4.9%	26.8%	2.4%	0.90	2.38	—
2024	22	A RAW	Bradenton Marauders	5	4	10	41	13	2	1	80%	2.0	31.7%	4.9%	26.8%	2.4%	0.90	2.40	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	26	116	455	101	25	13	100%	4.5	16.7%	6.7%	10.0%	3.1%	3.10	4.22	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	26	116	455	101	25	13	100%	4.5	16.7%	6.7%	10.0%	3.1%	3.10	4.22	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	26	116	455	101	25	13	100%	4.5	22.2%	5.5%	16.7%	2.9%	3.10	3.46	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	28	151	628	134	52	12	97%	5.2	17.8%	8.2%	9.6%	2.2%	3.27	3.83	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	28	151	628	134	52	12	97%	5.2	17.8%	8.2%	9.6%	2.2%	3.27	3.83	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	28	151	628	134	52	12	97%	5.2	21.3%	8.3%	13.1%	1.9%	3.27	3.39	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	PIT	2	2	9	38	6	3	1	100%	4.5	16.9%	7.9%	9.1%	2.7%	4.50	4.50	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	PIT	19	19	116	488	88	38	13	100%	6.1	18.1%	7.8%	10.3%	2.7%	4.44	4.41	+1.3
2029	27	MLB MLE	PIT	18	18	107	452	83	36	12	100%	5.9	18.4%	7.9%	10.5%	2.8%	4.44	4.44	+1.2
2030	28	MLB MLE	PIT	17	17	102	432	80	35	12	100%	6.0	18.5%	8.0%	10.4%	2.9%	4.48	4.51	+1.1
2031	29	MLB MLE	PIT	16	16	95	399	73	33	12	100%	5.9	18.3%	8.2%	10.1%	3.0%	4.57	4.64	+0.8
2032	30	MLB MLE	PIT	14	14	86	361	65	31	12	100%	6.1	18.0%	8.6%	9.4%	3.2%	4.72	4.82	+0.6
2033	31	MLB MLE	PIT	13	13	76	323	57	29	11	100%	5.9	17.6%	8.9%	8.7%	3.5%	4.90	5.02	+0.3
2034	32	MLB MLE	PIT	11	11	68	285	49	27	11	100%	6.1	17.1%	9.3%	7.8%	3.7%	5.11	5.24	+0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	PIT	7	7	43	182	33	14	5	100%	6.1	18.1%	7.8%	10.3%	2.5%	4.33	4.30	+0.5
2029	27	MLB CTX	PIT	10	10	57	241	44	19	6	100%	5.7	18.4%	7.9%	10.5%	2.6%	4.33	4.33	+0.6
2030	28	MLB CTX	PIT	11	11	66	279	51	22	7	100%	6.0	18.5%	8.0%	10.4%	2.7%	4.36	4.39	+0.7
2031	29	MLB CTX	PIT	11	11	67	283	52	23	8	100%	6.1	18.3%	8.2%	10.1%	2.8%	4.45	4.52	+0.6
2032	30	MLB CTX	PIT	11	11	65	274	49	23	8	100%	5.9	18.0%	8.6%	9.4%	3.0%	4.59	4.69	+0.4
2033	31	MLB CTX	PIT	10	10	62	262	46	23	8	100%	6.2	17.6%	8.9%	8.7%	3.2%	4.76	4.88	+0.3
2034	32	MLB CTX	PIT	10	10	57	241	41	22	8	100%	5.7	17.1%	9.3%	7.8%	3.4%	4.96	5.09	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		69	69	417	1759	317	148	51	100%	6.0	18.0%	8.4%	9.6%	2.9%	4.54	4.23	+5.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	152	71	24	100%	6.0	18.0%	8.4%	9.6%	2.9%	4.54	4.23	+2.8
Career	—	MLE		60	58	277	1124	201	84	29	97%	4.6	17.9%	7.5%	10.4%	2.5%	3.12	3.94	+5.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		43	42	200	811	145	61	21	97%	4.6	17.9%	7.5%	10.4%	2.5%	3.12	3.94	+1.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 85 IPFIP 3.77 → 4.02 (+0.25)K% 18.7% → 16.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.68%	—	×0.860	16.06%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.76%	—	×0.900	6.98%
HR / BF /BF	2.30%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.53%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.77 → 4.02, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAAltoona Curve · 67 IPFIP 2.93 → 3.60 (+0.67)K% 24.6% → 20.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.64%	—	×0.810	19.96%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.93%	—	×1.100	9.82%
HR / BF /BF	1.43%	÷1.000	×1.200	1.71%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.93 → 3.60, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Greensboro Grasshoppers · 108 IPFIP 3.42 → 4.22 (+0.80)K% 21.7% → 16.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.73%	—	×0.770	16.73%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.84%	—	×1.150	6.72%
HR / BF /BF	2.57%	÷1.048	×1.250	3.06%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 110).

Result: FIP 3.42 → 4.22, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ABradenton Marauders · 10 IPFIP 2.38 → 3.51 (+1.13)K% 31.7% → 23.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.71%	—	×0.740	23.46%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.88%	—	×1.180	5.76%
HR / BF /BF	2.44%	÷1.046	×1.300	3.03%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 109).

Result: FIP 2.38 → 3.51, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Connor Wietgrefe (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.7%	—	4.45	18.3%	10.4%	325	-0.05	—	—	—
Juan Pablo Oramas L 2015 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	16.5%	8.6%	2.2%	.313	3.87	17.4%	6.8%	186	-0.12	3.46	440	89
Joe Saunders L 2006 · 3.94 FIP	25	SP	3.94	16.9%	9.3%	2.0%	.300	4.48	13.1%	6.1%	491	+0.54	3.86	1,378	85
Scott Downs L 2000 · 4.63 FIP	24	SP	4.63	14.3%	8.8%	2.9%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	2.68	748	84
Seth Lonsway L 2024 · 3.35 FIP	25	SP	3.35	16.0%	7.6%	1.2%	.301	4.52	15.2%	3.1%	226	+1.17	3.35	506	84
Emmett Olson L 2024 · 3.88 FIP	22	SP	3.88	16.6%	9.3%	1.8%	.290	4.59	16.3%	7.9%	35	+0.71	3.88	147	83
Sean West L 2009 · 4.32 FIP	23	SP	4.32	15.0%	9.4%	2.4%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	4.32	103	83
Joe Whitman L 2024 · 3.89 FIP	22	SP	3.89	18.6%	9.9%	2.0%	.303	3.65	19.8%	11.7%	252	-0.24	3.51	355	83
Hunter Owen L 2024 · 4.32 FIP	22	SP	4.32	14.5%	8.7%	2.5%	.270	4.72	20.7%	10.2%	189	+0.40	4.16	291	83
Marco Tovar L 2015 · 3.78 FIP	26	SP	3.78	17.1%	7.8%	2.1%	.323	4.70	13.0%	6.1%	120	+0.92	3.78	327	82
Brandon Claussen L 2004 · 4.80 FIP	25	SP	4.80	14.4%	10.5%	2.9%	.314	4.56	16.5%	9.2%	244	-0.24	4.41	310	82
Michael O'Connor L 2006 · 4.93 FIP	25	SP	4.93	13.0%	8.8%	3.3%	.238	—	—	—	—	—	4.93	105	82
Matt Lujan L 2015 · 4.06 FIP	26	SP	4.06	15.5%	10.0%	1.8%	.326	4.84	16.0%	7.6%	119	+0.78	4.06	227	82
Ryan Bollinger L 2018 · 3.56 FIP	27	SP	3.56	17.1%	7.5%	1.7%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	112	82
Daniel Camarena L 2018 · 4.32 FIP	25	SP	4.32	15.9%	9.7%	2.4%	.338	4.71	16.9%	10.5%	187	+0.39	3.76	674	82
Brandon Schaeffer L 2023 · 4.07 FIP	23	SP	4.07	16.4%	8.5%	2.3%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	4.07	134	82
David Purcey L 2008 · 4.39 FIP	26	SP	4.39	20.1%	10.0%	3.1%	.301	4.39	17.9%	5.0%	116	-0.00	3.60	206	81
Kyle Twomey L 2017 · 3.96 FIP	23	SP	3.96	14.8%	7.9%	2.0%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	141	81
Misael Siverio L 2015 · 3.89 FIP	26	SP	3.89	16.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.343	4.32	17.3%	8.2%	63	+0.43	3.89	185	81
Aríel Miranda L 2015 · 3.46 FIP	26	SP	3.46	18.3%	10.2%	1.1%	.280	5.12	19.2%	10.2%	364	+1.66	3.46	431	81
Austin Krob L 2024 · 3.75 FIP	24	SP	3.75	18.2%	9.0%	1.9%	.333	4.61	16.0%	2.1%	47	+0.86	3.59	280	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.7	92	17.9%	8.3%	1.16	4.61
Alfredo Simon ('16)	3.9	111	15.7%	8.0%	1.22	4.56
Randy O'Neal ('84-'90, 1 WAR*)	2.2	73	17.4%*	7.8%*	1.21*	4.65*
Jack Lamabe ('62-'68, -0 WAR*)	3.6	102	17.8%*	8.0%*	1.07*	5.00*
Lerrin LaGrow ('70-'80, 2 WAR*)	3.9	87	16.8%*	9.1%*	1.23*	4.50*
Chris Rusin ('20)	2.3	78	16.8%	7.6%	1.06	4.65
Ross Ohlendorf ('16)	2.9	84	17.2%	8.6%	1.38	4.82