Connor Wietgrefe

Connor Wietgrefe P Indianapolis Indians

Age 24 LHP 6'2" / 200 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.9 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION145 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 106114vR 122

ERA4.69

FIP4.69

K%16.0%

BB%7.1%

K-BB%8.9%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 152 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$6M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5555

CMD4545

K†3045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1.0M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2031	Arb-1	$2M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-2	$2M	—	—	—
2033	Arb-3	$2M	—	—	—
Totals		$3M		$4M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	22	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	5	4	10	41	13	2	1	80%	2.0	31.7%	4.9%	26.8%	2.4%	0.90	2.38	—
2024	22	A MLE	Bradenton Marauders	5	4	10	41	13	2	1	80%	2.0	31.7%	4.9%	26.8%	2.4%	0.90	2.38	—
2024	22	A RAW	Bradenton Marauders	5	4	10	41	13	2	1	80%	2.0	31.7%	4.9%	26.8%	2.4%	0.90	2.40	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	26	116	455	101	25	13	100%	4.5	16.7%	6.7%	10.0%	3.1%	3.10	4.22	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	26	116	455	101	25	13	100%	4.5	16.7%	6.7%	10.0%	3.1%	3.10	4.22	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	26	116	455	101	25	13	100%	4.5	22.2%	5.5%	16.7%	2.9%	3.10	3.46	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	28	27	145	608	127	50	12	96%	5.2	17.1%	8.2%	8.9%	2.2%	3.41	3.92	—
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	28	27	145	608	127	50	12	96%	5.2	17.1%	8.2%	8.9%	2.2%	3.41	3.92	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	AA RAW	PIT	14	13	67	280	69	25	4	93%	4.8	24.6%	8.9%	15.7%	1.4%	3.51	2.93	—
2026	24	AAA RAW	PIT	14	14	79	328	58	25	8	100%	5.6	17.7%	7.6%	10.1%	2.4%	3.32	3.91	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	PIT	1	1	6	27	4	2	1	100%	6.4	16.0%	7.1%	8.9%	3.0%	4.69	4.69	+0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	PIT	—	—	152	635	131	52	13	—	—	20.7%	8.2%	12.5%	2.0%	3.46	3.96	+1.7
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	PIT	25	25	144	608	105	43	18	100%	5.8	17.2%	7.0%	10.2%	3.0%	4.60	4.57	+0.6
2028	26	MLB MLE	PIT	24	24	144	608	109	43	18	100%	6.0	17.8%	7.1%	10.8%	3.0%	4.54	4.51	+0.7
2029	27	MLB MLE	PIT	24	24	142	599	108	43	18	100%	5.9	18.0%	7.2%	10.9%	3.0%	4.53	4.54	+0.6
2030	28	MLB MLE	PIT	23	23	138	581	105	43	18	100%	6.0	18.0%	7.3%	10.7%	3.1%	4.58	4.62	+0.4
2031	29	MLB MLE	PIT	22	22	131	555	99	42	18	100%	6.0	17.8%	7.6%	10.2%	3.3%	4.68	4.75	+0.2
2032	30	MLB MLE	PIT	21	21	124	521	91	41	18	100%	5.9	17.4%	7.9%	9.6%	3.5%	4.83	4.93	-0.0
2033	31	MLB MLE	PIT	19	19	115	486	83	40	18	100%	6.1	17.0%	8.2%	8.8%	3.7%	5.01	5.13	-0.3
2027	25	MLB CTX	PIT	12	12	70	296	51	21	8	100%	5.8	17.2%	7.0%	10.2%	2.8%	4.48	4.45	+0.3
2028	26	MLB CTX	PIT	17	17	100	422	75	30	12	100%	5.9	17.8%	7.1%	10.8%	2.8%	4.42	4.39	+0.5
2029	27	MLB CTX	PIT	19	19	112	473	85	34	13	100%	5.9	18.0%	7.2%	10.9%	2.8%	4.40	4.41	+0.5
2030	28	MLB CTX	PIT	20	20	117	494	89	36	14	100%	5.8	18.0%	7.3%	10.7%	2.9%	4.45	4.49	+0.4
2031	29	MLB CTX	PIT	19	19	116	490	87	37	15	100%	6.1	17.8%	7.6%	10.2%	3.1%	4.54	4.61	+0.2
2032	30	MLB CTX	PIT	19	19	112	473	82	37	15	100%	5.9	17.4%	7.9%	9.6%	3.2%	4.69	4.79	-0.0
2033	31	MLB CTX	PIT	18	18	106	448	76	37	15	100%	5.9	17.0%	8.2%	8.8%	3.4%	4.86	4.98	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		122	122	733	3095	546	232	93	100%	6.0	17.6%	7.5%	10.2%	3.0%	4.55	4.21	+5.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	149	63	25	100%	6.0	17.6%	7.5%	10.2%	3.0%	4.55	4.21	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		59	57	271	1104	193	83	29	97%	4.6	17.5%	7.5%	10.0%	2.6%	3.18	3.99	+2.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		43	42	200	814	142	61	21	97%	4.6	17.5%	7.5%	10.0%	2.6%	3.18	3.99	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Connor Wietgrefe (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.69	16.0%	7.1%	3.0%	—	4.54	17.7%	10.6%	430	-0.15	—	—	—
Christian MacLeod L 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	16.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.312	4.60	19.5%	5.2%	212	+0.08	3.90	277	85
Kyle Twomey L 2017 · 3.96 FIP	23	SP	3.96	14.8%	7.9%	2.0%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	141	84
Juan Pablo Oramas L 2015 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	16.5%	8.6%	2.2%	.313	3.87	17.4%	6.8%	186	-0.12	3.46	440	83
Jordan Fowler L 2023 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP	4.08	13.2%	7.9%	2.0%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	124	82
Jake Zokan L 2015 · 4.89 FIP	24	SP	4.89	12.5%	9.9%	2.9%	.292	1.79	24.2%	22.5%	37	-3.10	1.79	120	82
Pete Hansen L 2023 · 4.18 FIP	23	SP	4.18	20.1%	9.9%	2.8%	.283	3.89	17.8%	10.2%	362	-0.29	3.77	475	81
James Paxton L 2015 · 4.22 FIP	26	SP	4.22	18.9%	9.4%	2.8%	.288	2.95	27.7%	21.7%	468	-1.27	2.46	924	81
Eric Jokisch L 2015 · 4.34 FIP	26	SP	4.34	11.1%	7.1%	2.3%	.307	4.05	14.7%	6.8%	342	-0.29	3.78	412	81
Jake McSteen L 2021 · 5.05 FIP	25	SP-	5.05	16.8%	7.3%	4.5%	.322	5.18	19.2%	12.5%	172	+0.13	2.22	286	80
Miguel Cienfuegos L 2023 · 5.12 FIP	26	SP	5.12	13.6%	10.5%	3.4%	.257	4.56	14.1%	5.6%	242	-0.56	2.99	313	79
Parker Messick L 2023 · 3.91 FIP	22	SP	3.91	19.8%	8.7%	2.5%	.296	3.21	24.7%	17.0%	444	-0.70	3.02	566	79
Adalberto Mejía L 2017 · 3.96 FIP	24	SP	3.96	18.7%	8.3%	2.5%	.313	3.67	19.5%	9.3%	117	-0.29	3.30	427	78
Brandon Schaeffer L 2023 · 4.07 FIP	23	SP	4.07	16.4%	8.5%	2.3%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	4.07	134	78
Shane Murphy L 2023 · 5.21 FIP	22	SP	5.21	18.9%	7.1%	5.1%	.272	4.94	15.7%	10.6%	358	-0.27	4.00	455	78
Caleb Franzen L 2023 · 4.10 FIP	22	SP	4.10	16.2%	10.1%	2.0%	.336	5.82	12.6%	0.2%	42	+1.72	4.10	155	78
Reid Love L 2016 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	13.8%	6.8%	2.7%	.293	3.74	15.2%	9.0%	140	-0.55	3.66	280	77
David Parkinson L 2019 · 3.70 FIP	23	SP	3.70	19.6%	8.8%	2.1%	.303	5.44	16.0%	8.2%	78	+1.74	3.07	517	77
Daniel Camarena L 2017 · 3.83 FIP	24	SP	3.83	13.1%	6.8%	1.8%	.292	4.59	17.1%	9.6%	222	+0.76	3.76	674	77
Grant Watson L 2017 · 4.70 FIP	24	SP-	4.70	16.4%	10.3%	3.0%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	2.59	180	77
Aaron Leasher L 2019 · 4.31 FIP	23	SP	4.31	17.5%	7.9%	3.1%	.301	4.15	19.8%	9.5%	152	-0.16	4.04	477	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.1	127	17.5%	7.4%	1.24	4.67
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Cole Irvin ('24)	2.9	118	17.1%	5.6%	1.28	4.46
Mike Minor ('22)	3.8	126	22.3%	7.2%	1.44	4.38
Marco Gonzales ('24)	4.4	111	17.5%	6.1%	1.26	4.13
Alex Cobb ('23)	4.0	114	19.5%	6.6%	1.03	4.14
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.5	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75