Luis Avila — OGILVIE

Luis Avila P Clearwater Threshers

Age 23 RHP 6'1" / 221 lbs A

2026 ROS PROJECTION38 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 145137vR 129

ERA5.91

FIP5.91

K%17.9%

BB%18.8%

K-BB%-0.9%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 44 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL2020

CMD4040

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	20	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies White	14	0	23	100	23	8	0	0%	1.6	15.6%	10.0%	5.6%	0.0%	2.35	3.05	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies White	14	0	23	100	23	8	0	0%	1.6	15.6%	10.0%	5.6%	0.0%	2.35	3.05	—
2023	20	ROK RAW	DSL Phillies White	14	0	23	100	23	8	0	0%	1.6	23.0%	8.0%	15.0%	0.0%	2.35	2.14	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	0	37	157	42	21	2	0%	1.3	19.3%	16.1%	3.2%	1.9%	2.17	4.57	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	0	37	157	42	21	2	0%	1.3	19.3%	16.1%	3.2%	1.9%	2.17	4.57	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	0	37	157	42	21	2	0%	1.3	26.8%	13.4%	13.4%	1.3%	2.17	3.23	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	52	231	56	36	4	0%	1.5	18.1%	18.3%	-0.2%	2.1%	4.88	5.03	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	52	231	56	36	4	0%	1.5	18.1%	18.3%	-0.2%	2.1%	4.88	5.03	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	0	52	231	56	36	4	0%	1.5	24.2%	15.6%	8.7%	1.7%	4.88	4.03	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	34	0	38	168	49	26	5	0%	1.1	21.9%	18.0%	3.9%	3.8%	4.70	5.62	—
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	34	0	38	168	49	26	5	0%	1.1	21.9%	18.0%	3.9%	3.8%	4.70	5.62	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A RAW	PHI	19	0	26	101	31	11	3	0%	1.4	30.7%	10.9%	19.8%	3.0%	2.45	3.52	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	PHI	15	0	13	67	18	15	2	0%	0.8	26.9%	22.4%	4.5%	3.0%	9.24	5.31	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	PHI	5	0	5	22	4	4	1	0%	1.0	17.9%	18.8%	-0.9%	2.8%	5.91	5.91	-0.1
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	PHI	—	—	44	190	53	30	6	—	—	27.9%	15.9%	12.0%	3.0%	4.84	5.66	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	PHI	60	0	63	266	51	43	8	0%	1.1	19.1%	16.2%	2.9%	2.8%	5.58	5.47	-0.6
2028	25	MLB MLE	PHI	61	0	64	270	53	39	8	0%	1.0	19.8%	14.5%	5.2%	2.8%	5.32	5.20	-0.5
2027	24	MLB CTX	PHI	26	0	27	114	22	18	3	0%	1.0	19.1%	16.2%	2.9%	2.8%	5.58	5.47	-0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	PHI	40	0	42	177	35	26	5	0%	1.1	19.8%	14.5%	5.2%	2.8%	5.32	5.20	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		66	0	69	293	57	44	8	0%	1.1	19.5%	15.2%	4.3%	2.8%	5.42	4.93	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	164	127	23	0%	1.1	19.5%	15.2%	4.3%	2.8%	5.42	4.93	-0.9
Career	—	MLE		111	0	150	656	125	108	14	0%	1.4	19.0%	16.4%	2.6%	2.2%	3.77	4.77	-1.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		148	0	200	873	166	143	19	0%	1.4	19.0%	16.4%	2.6%	2.2%	3.77	4.77	-1.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Avila (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.91	17.9%	18.8%	2.8%	—	5.33	19.4%	4.1%	127	-0.58	—	—	—
Jonathan Teaney R 2019 · 5.65 FIP	23	SU	5.65	16.4%	15.7%	3.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.77	108	89
Roberto Espinosa R 2015 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	18.9%	18.6%	1.9%	.273	4.43	14.8%	2.2%	77	-0.49	4.32	117	88
Jacob Morris R 2015 · 5.43 FIP	24	SU	5.43	18.0%	19.6%	2.5%	.218	4.77	18.7%	-2.4%	46	-0.66	4.77	102	87
Jeff Soptic R 2015 · 5.30 FIP	24	SU	5.30	15.5%	17.2%	2.5%	.237	5.52	13.6%	-1.7%	68	+0.22	5.30	124	87
Cody Scroggins R 2021 · 5.35 FIP	24	SU	5.35	17.4%	15.1%	3.3%	.263	4.28	18.6%	4.4%	59	-1.07	3.78	108	87
James Acuna R 2021 · 5.12 FIP	23	SU	5.12	21.3%	17.0%	3.0%	.302	4.33	19.4%	4.6%	60	-0.79	4.33	107	86
Matt Brill R 2018 · 4.90 FIP	23	SU	4.90	20.8%	16.3%	2.7%	.248	3.89	19.4%	4.9%	60	-1.01	3.73	161	86
Brett Lockwood R 2021 · 5.46 FIP	24	SU	5.46	16.2%	15.5%	3.2%	.312	4.58	11.0%	-6.3%	79	-0.88	4.24	132	86
Tommy DeJuneas R 2019 · 5.15 FIP	23	SU	5.15	20.8%	18.8%	2.6%	.324	5.65	13.7%	-3.9%	51	+0.50	3.93	178	86
Ocean Gabonia R 2023 · 5.04 FIP	22	SU	5.04	15.4%	14.6%	2.5%	.283	3.29	19.1%	10.9%	91	-1.75	2.79	144	86
Sal Biasi R 2019 · 5.22 FIP	23	SU	5.22	20.1%	15.8%	3.3%	.295	7.66	15.3%	-0.2%	23	+2.44	4.68	188	84
Luis Ledo R 2018 · 5.51 FIP	23	SU	5.51	17.1%	17.6%	3.0%	.329	3.65	20.8%	8.0%	85	-1.86	3.27	376	84
Aroni Nina R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	25	SU	4.90	16.8%	20.5%	1.1%	.312	3.04	18.8%	8.7%	64	-1.86	2.68	115	83
Austin Pettibone R 2016 · 5.11 FIP	23	SU	5.11	14.6%	16.2%	2.2%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.99	142	82
Jackson Rose R 2018 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	17.3%	17.2%	2.8%	.267	4.77	23.5%	16.5%	56	-0.55	3.33	147	82
Alaska Abney R 2023 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	18.8%	13.8%	3.0%	.301	3.89	17.4%	7.9%	104	-1.03	3.38	207	82
Juan Mendez R 2022 · 4.99 FIP	23	SU	4.99	21.0%	17.9%	2.5%	.279	5.12	22.5%	7.9%	82	+0.13	3.69	156	82
Stephen Nogosek R 2018 · 5.74 FIP	23	SU	5.74	19.4%	18.6%	3.5%	.237	3.01	24.8%	12.8%	85	-2.73	2.56	419	82
Zach Barnes R 2022 · 5.35 FIP	23	SU	5.35	18.2%	22.0%	1.8%	.378	5.03	14.9%	1.5%	119	-0.32	4.90	145	82
Morgan McSweeney R 2021 · 5.36 FIP	23	SU	5.36	21.9%	16.3%	3.7%	.295	5.17	18.2%	4.9%	93	-0.19	3.20	213	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	63	19.0%	16.5%	1.10	5.60
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99