Luis Avila
P
Jersey Shore BlueClaws
Age 23
RHP
6'1" / 221 lbs
A+
peak 0.1 · 2028
2026 ROS PROJECTION23 act + 62 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 148139vR 130
ERA5.75
FIP5.75
K%17.9%
BB%17.6%
K-BB%0.3%
ROS IP62
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 84 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 20 | ROK | DSL Phillies White | 14 | 0 | 23 | 100 | 23 | 8 | 0 | 0% | 1.6 | 15.6% | 10.0% | 5.6% | 0.0% | 2.35 | 3.05 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK | DSL Phillies White | 14 | 0 | 23 | 100 | 23 | 8 | 0 | 0% | 1.6 | 23.0% | 8.0% | 15.0% | 0.0% | 2.35 | 2.14 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 0 | 37 | 157 | 42 | 21 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 19.3% | 16.1% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 2.17 | 4.67 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 0 | 37 | 157 | 42 | 21 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 26.8% | 13.4% | 13.4% | 1.3% | 2.17 | 3.23 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 0 | 52 | 231 | 56 | 36 | 4 | 0% | 1.5 | 18.1% | 18.3% | -0.2% | 2.0% | 4.88 | 4.96 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 0 | 52 | 231 | 56 | 36 | 4 | 0% | 1.5 | 24.2% | 15.6% | 8.7% | 1.7% | 4.88 | 4.03 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | Jersey Shore BlueClaws | 22 | 0 | 23 | 101 | 32 | 18 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.7% | 25.7% | -5.1% | 3.7% | 5.16 | 6.66 | -0.6 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | PHI | 59 | 0 | 62 | 260 | 47 | 46 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.9% | 17.6% | 0.3% | 2.8% | 5.75 | 5.75 | -0.8 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 17.9% | 17.6% | 0.3% | 2.8% | 5.75 | 5.75 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 84 | 361 | 79 | 64 | 9 | — | — | 21.8% | 17.7% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 5.59 | 6.00 | -0.9 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 17.9% | 17.6% | 0.3% | 2.8% | 5.75 | 5.37 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | PHI | 60 | 0 | 63 | 266 | 51 | 41 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.1% | 15.3% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 5.46 | 5.36 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | PHI | 61 | 0 | 64 | 270 | 53 | 37 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.8% | 13.9% | 5.9% | 2.8% | 5.22 | 5.11 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | PHI | 61 | 0 | 64 | 270 | 54 | 37 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.2% | 13.6% | 6.6% | 2.8% | 5.10 | 5.05 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | PHI | 26 | 0 | 27 | 114 | 22 | 17 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.1% | 15.3% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 5.46 | 5.36 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | PHI | 40 | 0 | 42 | 177 | 35 | 25 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.8% | 13.9% | 5.9% | 2.8% | 5.22 | 5.11 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | PHI | 49 | 0 | 51 | 215 | 43 | 29 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.2% | 13.6% | 6.6% | 2.8% | 5.10 | 5.05 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 115 | 0 | 121 | 509 | 101 | 72 | 14 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.8% | 14.1% | 5.7% | 2.8% | 5.22 | 4.76 | +0.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 168 | 119 | 23 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.8% | 14.1% | 5.7% | 2.8% | 5.22 | 4.76 | +1.5 | ||
| Career | — | 99 | 0 | 135 | 589 | 109 | 104 | 12 | 0% | 1.4 | 18.4% | 17.6% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 3.74 | 4.85 | +0.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 147 | 0 | 200 | 875 | 161 | 154 | 17 | 0% | 1.4 | 18.4% | 17.6% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 3.74 | 4.85 | +1.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Luis Avila (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.75 | 17.9% | 17.6% | 2.8% | — | 5.17 | 19.7% | 5.4% | 191 | -0.58 | — | — | — |
| Roberto Espinosa R 2026 · 5.02 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.02 | 18.9% | 18.6% | 2.1% | .273 | 4.46 | 14.8% | 2.2% | 77 | -0.56 | 4.32 | 117 | 89 |
| Hunter Mann R 2026 · 5.68 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.68 | 18.4% | 18.5% | 3.3% | .303 | 4.27 | 19.6% | 8.1% | 49 | -1.41 | 3.01 | 135 | 89 |
| James Acuna R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.89 | 21.3% | 17.0% | 2.6% | .302 | 4.23 | 19.4% | 4.6% | 60 | -0.66 | 4.23 | 107 | 87 |
| Matt Brill R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.94 | 20.8% | 16.3% | 2.8% | .248 | 3.84 | 19.4% | 4.9% | 60 | -1.10 | 3.75 | 161 | 87 |
| Luis Germán R 2026 · 5.67 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.67 | 16.0% | 19.6% | 2.6% | .305 | 8.13 | 12.2% | -10.4% | 19 | +2.46 | 5.21 | 115 | 87 |
| Jacob Morris R 2027 · 5.72 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.72 | 18.0% | 19.6% | 3.0% | .218 | 4.72 | 18.7% | -2.4% | 46 | -1.00 | 4.72 | 102 | 87 |
| Brett Lockwood R 2027 · 5.51 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.51 | 16.2% | 15.5% | 3.3% | .312 | 4.61 | 11.0% | -6.3% | 79 | -0.90 | 4.29 | 132 | 86 |
| Cody Scroggins R 2027 · 5.62 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.62 | 17.4% | 15.1% | 3.8% | .263 | 4.25 | 18.6% | 4.4% | 59 | -1.37 | 3.67 | 108 | 86 |
| Jeff Soptic R 2027 · 5.27 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.27 | 15.5% | 17.2% | 2.4% | .237 | 5.45 | 13.6% | -1.7% | 68 | +0.18 | 5.27 | 124 | 86 |
| Cody Adcock R 2026 · 5.54 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.54 | 18.6% | 16.5% | 3.5% | .253 | 3.69 | 25.7% | 3.9% | 26 | -1.85 | 3.34 | 139 | 86 |
| Tommy DeJuneas R 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.09 | 20.8% | 18.8% | 2.5% | .324 | 5.52 | 13.7% | -3.9% | 51 | +0.43 | 3.90 | 178 | 86 |
| Jonathan Teaney R 2026 · 6.06 FIP | 23 | SU | 6.06 | 16.4% | 15.7% | 4.3% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.70 | 108 | 86 |
| Sal Biasi R 2026 · 5.19 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.19 | 20.1% | 15.8% | 3.3% | .295 | 7.85 | 15.3% | -0.2% | 23 | +2.66 | 4.68 | 188 | 86 |
| Will McAffer R 2025 · 4.59 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.59 | 20.4% | 18.1% | 1.7% | .270 | 6.10 | 18.5% | -4.0% | 77 | +1.51 | 4.59 | 133 | 86 |
| Kris Hall R 2027 · 4.65 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.65 | 18.3% | 17.8% | 1.5% | .281 | 7.02 | 12.7% | -7.8% | 34 | +2.37 | 4.65 | 106 | 85 |
| Cole Hillier R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.69 | 16.9% | 14.7% | 2.1% | .297 | 4.61 | 18.4% | 4.4% | 95 | -0.08 | 3.72 | 153 | 85 |
| Mason McCullough R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.62 | 20.8% | 19.2% | 1.5% | .340 | 3.91 | 26.7% | 6.9% | 77 | -0.71 | 3.30 | 154 | 84 |
| Alaska Abney R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.83 | 18.8% | 13.8% | 2.9% | .301 | 3.88 | 17.4% | 7.9% | 104 | -0.95 | 3.31 | 207 | 84 |
| Kevin Kopps R 2028 · 4.78 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.78 | 20.2% | 15.1% | 2.7% | .278 | 4.59 | 16.5% | 2.8% | 182 | -0.19 | 3.64 | 237 | 84 |
| Luis Ledo R 2026 · 5.45 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.45 | 17.1% | 17.6% | 2.9% | .329 | 3.60 | 20.8% | 8.0% | 85 | -1.85 | 3.22 | 376 | 84 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 63 | 19.3% | 15.1% | 1.09 | 5.38 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |