Aiven Cabral

P Rome Emperors

Age 23 RHP 5'11" / 195 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 1.0 · 2030

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

OGV OFP40OGV rank#408ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	22	MIX2 levels	23	16	115	3.45	3.57	19.0%	6.2%	—	K 14.3% · BB 7.3% · FIP 4.47
2027PROJ	23	MLBATL	—	—	0	4.73	4.73	15.8%	7.4%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBATL	5	5	37	4.59	4.53	17.8%	7.2%	0.4
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBATL	7	7	53	4.47	4.40	19.0%	7.1%	0.6

Next 3 projected WAR 1.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Arb-1$0.8M+2

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 0.4, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 95%

CompsLuis Santos (age 24) · Enrique Gonzalez (age 24) · Nick Payero (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.73

FIP4.73

K%15.8%

BB%7.4%

K-BB%8.3%

Proj IP80

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 80 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$32M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†3045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2034	Arb-1	$0.8M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.6M
2035	Arb-2	$1M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$5M		$7M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	16	115	464	88	29	11	70%	5.0	14.3%	7.3%	7.1%	3.0%	3.45	4.47	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	16	115	464	88	29	11	70%	5.0	14.3%	7.3%	7.1%	3.0%	3.45	4.47	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	16	115	464	88	29	11	70%	5.0	19.0%	6.2%	12.7%	2.4%	3.45	3.57	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	ATL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	15.8%	7.4%	8.3%	3.0%	4.73	4.73	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	ATL	12	12	86	362	64	26	11	100%	7.1	17.8%	7.2%	10.5%	3.0%	4.59	4.53	+0.9
2029	25	MLB MLE	ATL	11	11	79	335	64	24	10	100%	7.2	19.0%	7.1%	11.8%	3.0%	4.47	4.40	+0.9
2030	26	MLB MLE	ATL	11	11	78	331	65	24	10	100%	7.1	19.7%	7.1%	12.5%	3.0%	4.39	4.34	+1.0
2031	27	MLB MLE	ATL	11	11	76	321	63	23	10	100%	6.9	19.7%	7.2%	12.5%	3.0%	4.38	4.38	+0.9
2032	28	MLB MLE	ATL	10	10	72	305	60	22	9	100%	7.2	19.6%	7.4%	12.2%	3.1%	4.43	4.46	+0.8
2033	29	MLB MLE	ATL	9	9	67	283	55	22	9	100%	7.4	19.4%	7.6%	11.8%	3.3%	4.53	4.59	+0.6
2034	30	MLB MLE	ATL	8	8	60	255	49	20	9	100%	7.6	19.0%	7.9%	11.1%	3.5%	4.68	4.77	+0.4
2035	31	MLB MLE	ATL	8	8	54	228	42	19	8	100%	6.7	18.6%	8.3%	10.4%	3.7%	4.86	4.97	+0.3
2028	24	MLB CTX	ATL	5	5	37	156	28	11	5	100%	7.4	17.8%	7.2%	10.5%	3.0%	4.59	4.53	+0.4
2029	25	MLB CTX	ATL	7	7	53	224	42	16	7	100%	7.6	19.0%	7.1%	11.8%	3.0%	4.47	4.40	+0.6
2030	26	MLB CTX	ATL	9	9	62	262	52	19	8	100%	6.9	19.7%	7.1%	12.5%	3.0%	4.39	4.34	+0.8
2031	27	MLB CTX	ATL	9	9	65	274	54	20	8	100%	7.2	19.7%	7.2%	12.5%	3.0%	4.38	4.38	+0.8
2032	28	MLB CTX	ATL	9	9	64	270	53	20	8	100%	7.1	19.6%	7.4%	12.2%	3.1%	4.43	4.46	+0.7
2033	29	MLB CTX	ATL	9	9	61	258	50	20	8	100%	6.8	19.4%	7.6%	11.8%	3.3%	4.53	4.59	+0.6
2034	30	MLB CTX	ATL	8	8	56	236	45	19	8	100%	7.0	19.0%	7.9%	11.1%	3.5%	4.68	4.77	+0.4
2035	31	MLB CTX	ATL	7	7	50	211	39	17	8	100%	7.1	18.6%	8.3%	10.4%	3.7%	4.86	4.97	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		62	62	448	1890	363	141	60	100%	7.2	19.2%	7.5%	11.7%	3.2%	4.53	4.17	+6.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		28	28	200	844	162	63	27	100%	7.2	19.2%	7.5%	11.7%	3.2%	4.53	4.17	+2.9
Career	—	MLE		23	16	115	464	67	34	14	70%	5.0	14.3%	7.3%	7.1%	3.0%	3.45	4.47	+5.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		40	28	200	809	116	59	24	70%	5.0	14.3%	7.3%	7.1%	3.0%	3.45	4.47	+2.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Rome Emperors · 65 IPFIP 3.61 → 4.37 (+0.77)K% 17.7% → 13.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.67%	—	×0.770	13.61%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.02%	—	×1.150	6.92%
HR / BF /BF	2.26%	÷1.000	×1.250	2.82%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.61 → 4.37, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAugusta GreenJackets · 50 IPFIP 3.57 → 4.59 (+1.02)K% 20.7% → 15.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.71%	—	×0.740	15.32%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.57%	—	×1.180	7.75%
HR / BF /BF	2.53%	÷1.000	×1.300	3.28%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.57 → 4.59, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Aiven Cabral (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.73	15.8%	7.4%	3.0%	—	4.43	18.8%	11.6%	244	-0.30	—	—	—
Luis Santos R 2015 · 4.48 FIP	24	SP-	4.48	17.0%	6.5%	3.6%	.293	4.12	19.1%	10.5%	315	-0.36	3.53	472	87
Enrique Gonzalez R 2006 · 4.49 FIP	24	SP-	4.49	14.3%	7.4%	3.0%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.49	132	87
Nick Payero R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	24	SP-	4.21	16.5%	6.3%	3.1%	.285	5.81	16.6%	4.6%	107	+1.60	4.21	178	86
Kyle Dowdy R 2016 · 3.94 FIP	23	SP-	3.94	14.2%	6.3%	2.3%	.311	3.90	17.5%	8.6%	323	-0.04	2.98	606	86
Braden Olthoff R 2022 · 4.50 FIP	23	SP-	4.50	12.5%	8.0%	2.6%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.50	108	85
Chris Devenski R 2015 · 4.09 FIP	24	SP-	4.09	16.8%	7.2%	2.7%	.298	2.96	27.7%	21.7%	236	-1.13	2.12	624	85
Nick Dean R 2024 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP-	3.86	17.5%	8.1%	2.2%	.275	3.47	21.7%	14.6%	111	-0.39	2.73	202	85
Sergio Mitre R 2004 · 4.16 FIP	23	SP-	4.16	15.2%	7.8%	2.5%	.357	4.16	13.2%	6.5%	250	+0.00	3.55	602	85
Nick Belzer R 2019 · 4.23 FIP	23	SP-	4.23	14.5%	9.1%	2.2%	.291	4.51	12.8%	4.2%	63	+0.28	4.23	112	84
Collin Lowe R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	24	SP-	3.62	15.2%	6.2%	1.8%	.292	3.11	15.1%	11.2%	75	-0.51	3.11	165	84
Conor Fisk R 2015 · 4.77 FIP	23	SP-	4.77	11.2%	6.7%	3.2%	.282	4.20	15.2%	8.4%	352	-0.57	3.38	523	84
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.27	22.8%	15.4%	121	+0.08	2.98	262	84
Matthew DeRosier R 2017 · 3.89 FIP	23	SP-	3.89	16.6%	6.6%	2.5%	.294	5.67	15.1%	6.0%	57	+1.78	2.72	200	84
Logan Martin R 2024 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP-	3.95	16.9%	8.9%	2.1%	.278	4.58	17.6%	5.0%	140	+0.63	3.95	242	84
Brooks Hall R 2015 · 4.12 FIP	25	SP-	4.12	14.3%	6.9%	2.5%	.291	4.00	14.0%	7.0%	153	-0.12	3.45	274	83
Angel Araiza R 2015 · 4.57 FIP	25	SP-	4.57	16.7%	6.5%	3.8%	.287	3.79	15.0%	7.6%	193	-0.78	3.40	289	83
Tyler Davis R 2016 · 5.18 FIP	23	SP-	5.18	16.7%	8.0%	4.5%	.349	4.48	12.0%	6.5%	196	-0.70	4.27	294	83
Randy Bell R 2018 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP-	4.36	14.4%	6.6%	3.0%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.36	120	83
Wil Jensen R 2021 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP	4.37	18.9%	6.9%	3.6%	.300	4.37	21.0%	11.3%	266	+0.00	3.48	368	83
Kenten Egbert R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	19.6%	9.6%	2.9%	.257	4.34	10.8%	3.5%	133	+0.08	4.04	231	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.3	73	18.7%	7.4%	1.21	4.55
Anthony Swarzak ('21)	3.3	73	17.8%	7.3%	1.20	4.42
Cris Carpenter ('88-'96, 2 WAR*)	2.1	69	18.3%*	7.4%*	1.15*	4.29*
Ron Taylor ('62-'72, 3 WAR*)	4.0	80	17.8%*	6.8%*	1.26*	4.74*
Randy Moffitt ('72-'83, 4 WAR*)	3.9	78	19.4%*	8.3%*	1.08*	4.19*
Juan Carlos Oviedo ('14)	1.9	56	18.9%	8.0%	1.16	4.28
Mike Trombley ('02)	4.0	80	19.4%	9.2%	1.29	4.48