Aiven Cabral — OGILVIE

Aiven Cabral P Rome Emperors

Age 22 RHP 5'11" / 195 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.8 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 103

ERA4.51

FIP4.51

K%19.3%

BB%8.0%

K-BB%11.3%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$32M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2033	Arb-1	$3M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.2M
2034	Arb-2	$3M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-3	$3M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$9M	+$6M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Rome Emperors	23	16	115	464	88	29	11	70%	5.0	14.3%	7.3%	7.1%	3.0%	3.45	4.47	—
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Rome Emperors	23	16	115	464	88	29	11	70%	5.0	14.3%	7.3%	7.1%	3.0%	3.45	4.47	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A RAW	ATL	10	4	50	198	41	13	5	40%	5.0	20.7%	6.6%	14.1%	2.5%	2.54	3.57	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	ATL	13	12	65	266	47	16	6	92%	5.0	17.7%	6.0%	11.7%	2.3%	4.15	3.61	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	ATL	16	16	116	492	101	38	15	100%	7.3	20.6%	7.7%	12.9%	3.0%	4.40	4.34	+0.8
2028	24	MLB MLE	ATL	17	17	119	504	107	38	15	100%	7.0	21.3%	7.4%	13.8%	2.9%	4.30	4.23	+0.9
2029	25	MLB MLE	ATL	17	17	121	510	111	37	15	100%	7.1	21.7%	7.3%	14.4%	2.9%	4.23	4.18	+1.0
2030	26	MLB MLE	ATL	17	17	121	510	112	37	15	100%	7.1	21.9%	7.3%	14.6%	2.9%	4.19	4.16	+1.1
2031	27	MLB MLE	ATL	17	17	119	503	110	37	15	100%	7.0	21.9%	7.4%	14.5%	3.0%	4.19	4.19	+1.0
2032	28	MLB MLE	ATL	16	16	116	488	106	37	15	100%	7.2	21.8%	7.5%	14.3%	3.1%	4.24	4.28	+0.8
2033	29	MLB MLE	ATL	15	15	110	466	100	36	15	100%	7.4	21.5%	7.8%	13.8%	3.2%	4.34	4.41	+0.6
2034	30	MLB MLE	ATL	14	14	104	438	93	35	15	100%	7.4	21.2%	8.1%	13.1%	3.4%	4.49	4.59	+0.4
2035	31	MLB MLE	ATL	13	13	97	408	85	34	15	100%	7.4	20.8%	8.4%	12.4%	3.6%	4.67	4.79	+0.1
2036	32	MLB MLE	ATL	12	12	89	377	77	33	15	100%	7.5	20.3%	8.8%	11.5%	3.9%	4.88	5.01	-0.1
2027	23	MLB CTX	ATL	8	8	58	245	50	19	7	100%	7.2	20.6%	7.7%	12.9%	3.0%	4.40	4.34	+0.4
2028	24	MLB CTX	ATL	12	12	83	350	75	26	10	100%	6.9	21.3%	7.4%	13.8%	2.9%	4.30	4.23	+0.7
2029	25	MLB CTX	ATL	14	14	98	414	90	30	12	100%	7.0	21.7%	7.3%	14.4%	2.9%	4.23	4.18	+0.8
2030	26	MLB CTX	ATL	15	15	106	448	98	33	13	100%	7.1	21.9%	7.3%	14.6%	2.9%	4.19	4.16	+0.9
2031	27	MLB CTX	ATL	15	15	108	456	100	34	14	100%	7.2	21.9%	7.4%	14.5%	3.0%	4.19	4.19	+0.9
2032	28	MLB CTX	ATL	15	15	106	448	97	34	14	100%	7.1	21.8%	7.5%	14.3%	3.1%	4.24	4.28	+0.8
2033	29	MLB CTX	ATL	14	14	103	435	94	34	14	100%	7.4	21.5%	7.8%	13.8%	3.2%	4.34	4.41	+0.6
2034	30	MLB CTX	ATL	14	14	97	410	87	33	14	100%	6.9	21.2%	8.1%	13.1%	3.4%	4.49	4.59	+0.3
2035	31	MLB CTX	ATL	13	13	92	388	81	33	14	100%	7.1	20.8%	8.4%	12.4%	3.6%	4.67	4.79	+0.1
2036	32	MLB CTX	ATL	12	12	85	359	73	32	14	100%	7.1	20.3%	8.8%	11.5%	3.9%	4.88	5.01	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		131	131	935	3949	843	306	126	100%	7.1	21.4%	7.7%	13.6%	3.2%	4.38	4.03	+9.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		28	28	200	844	180	65	27	100%	7.2	21.4%	7.7%	13.6%	3.2%	4.38	4.03	+2.1
Career	—	MLE		23	16	115	464	67	34	14	70%	5.0	14.3%	7.3%	7.1%	3.0%	3.45	4.47	+6.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		40	28	200	809	116	59	24	70%	5.0	14.3%	7.3%	7.1%	3.0%	3.45	4.47	+1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Aiven Cabral (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.51	19.3%	8.0%	3.0%	—	4.25	21.2%	13.7%	357	-0.26	—	—	—
Gus Varland R 2019 · 4.29 FIP	22	SP-	4.29	19.6%	8.7%	3.2%	.294	5.73	18.1%	5.7%	105	+1.44	2.39	330	87
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	81
Jesus Lugo R 2019 · 3.79 FIP	21	SP-	3.79	17.8%	8.1%	2.1%	.243	6.08	19.8%	10.5%	45	+2.29	3.79	113	80
Jordan Geber R 2022 · 5.03 FIP	23	SP-	5.03	15.3%	10.7%	3.4%	.341	4.39	15.4%	7.7%	176	-0.64	4.26	241	79
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	79
Nick Belzer R 2019 · 4.23 FIP	23	SP-	4.23	14.5%	9.1%	2.2%	.291	4.51	12.8%	4.2%	63	+0.28	4.23	112	79
Hunter Dollander R 2022 · 3.92 FIP	25	SP-	3.92	19.2%	5.7%	3.1%	.311	6.77	17.6%	-0.7%	51	+2.85	3.92	106	79
Randy Dobnak R 2017 · 5.03 FIP	22	SP-	5.03	14.5%	7.3%	4.1%	.222	3.28	14.7%	9.1%	339	-1.75	3.01	962	78
Yusniel Padron-Artiles R 2019 · 4.48 FIP	21	SP-	4.48	17.6%	7.9%	3.4%	.343	6.27	19.2%	11.3%	197	+1.79	3.27	243	78
Garrett Hill R 2018 · 3.39 FIP	22	SP-	3.39	19.2%	7.7%	1.7%	.390	3.16	21.6%	11.0%	200	-0.23	3.02	539	78
Chris Clarke R 2021 · 4.59 FIP	23	SP	4.59	15.8%	6.7%	3.6%	.340	3.85	16.2%	9.8%	241	-0.74	3.57	291	78
Lucas Long R 2015 · 4.84 FIP	22	SP-	4.84	14.5%	5.9%	4.0%	.300	3.94	15.0%	9.1%	386	-0.90	3.42	441	77
Travis Herrin R 2017 · 4.40 FIP	22	SP-	4.40	21.1%	7.3%	3.9%	.315	4.92	17.6%	5.2%	106	+0.52	4.40	236	77
Nick Fraze R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	23	SP-	4.49	18.8%	7.3%	3.8%	.271	4.70	17.9%	10.2%	162	+0.21	3.86	278	77
Jarrod Cande R 2022 · 4.31 FIP	22	SP-	4.31	19.1%	7.3%	3.5%	.330	4.94	18.1%	9.1%	212	+0.63	4.31	304	77
Jack Perkins R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	21	SP-	4.34	13.6%	5.4%	3.1%	.312	4.91	16.4%	7.5%	156	+0.57	4.34	176	77
Kevin Folman R 2018 · 4.54 FIP	23	SP	4.54	13.2%	5.9%	3.3%	.312	5.37	16.0%	6.4%	122	+0.83	4.54	161	77
Zach Lewis R 2017 · 3.57 FIP	22	SP-	3.57	14.3%	7.6%	1.3%	.286	4.17	16.3%	5.2%	213	+0.60	3.57	266	76
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	76
Matt Eckelman R 2016 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP	4.30	15.6%	4.7%	3.5%	.265	4.44	16.3%	5.4%	169	+0.14	4.07	386	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.7	103	21.3%	7.7%	1.22	4.38
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Marco Gonzales ('24)	4.4	111	17.5%	6.1%	1.26	4.13
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01