Chris Devenski — OGILVIE

Chris Devenski P Syracuse Mets

Age 35 RHP 6'3" / 208 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION32 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111103vR 95

ERA4.06

FIP4.10

K%22.3%

BB%7.4%

K-BB%14.9%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 37 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL4040

CMD4040

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2192.4

Whiff%

p2621.9%

p4521.5%

xwOBA vs

p620.300

SL+2.2 (21%)

CH+1.7 (39%)

FB+0.6 (23%)

SI (1%)

CT-1.6 (18%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	24	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	24	17	120	501	104	33	12	71%	5.0	16.8%	7.2%	9.6%	2.7%	3.01	4.09	—
2015	24	AA RAW	Corpus Christi Hooks	24	17	120	501	104	33	12	71%	5.0	20.8%	6.6%	14.2%	2.4%	3.01	3.49	—
2016	25	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	48	5	108	408	104	20	4	10%	2.3	25.5%	4.9%	20.6%	1.0%	2.16	2.12	+3.2
2016	25	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	48	5	108	408	104	20	4	10%	2.3	25.5%	4.9%	20.6%	1.0%	2.16	2.21	+3.1
2017	26	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	62	0	81	316	100	23	11	0%	1.3	31.6%	7.3%	24.4%	3.6%	2.68	3.31	+1.2
2017	26	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	62	0	81	316	100	23	11	0%	1.3	31.6%	7.3%	24.4%	3.5%	2.68	3.25	+1.3
2018	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	55	3	52	221	61	13	11	5%	0.9	26.0%	6.1%	19.9%	4.7%	4.50	4.27	+0.2
2018	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	55	3	52	221	61	13	11	5%	0.9	27.6%	5.9%	21.7%	5.0%	4.50	4.25	+0.2
2019	28	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	61	1	69	298	72	21	13	2%	1.1	24.2%	7.0%	17.1%	4.5%	4.83	4.41	+0.1
2019	28	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	61	1	69	298	72	21	13	2%	1.1	24.2%	7.0%	17.1%	4.4%	4.83	4.38	+0.1
2020	29	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	4	0	4	21	5	3	1	0%	0.9	23.8%	14.3%	9.5%	4.8%	14.73	5.51	-0.0
2020	29	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	4	0	4	21	5	3	1	0%	0.9	23.8%	14.3%	9.5%	4.8%	14.73	6.37	-0.1
2021	30	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	8	0	7	35	5	2	2	0%	0.9	14.3%	5.7%	8.6%	5.7%	8.59	5.75	-0.1
2021	30	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	8	0	7	35	5	2	2	0%	0.9	14.3%	5.7%	8.6%	5.7%	8.59	6.10	-0.1
2022	31	MIX MLE	3 levels	31	3	34	141	35	6	7	10%	1.1	22.8%	4.8%	18.0%	5.4%	5.61	4.76	-0.1
2022	31	MIX RAW	3 levels	31	3	34	141	35	6	7	10%	1.1	24.8%	4.3%	20.6%	5.0%	5.61	4.26	+0.1
2023	32	MIX MLE	4 levels	53	6	60	248	67	13	7	11%	1.1	24.3%	5.8%	18.5%	3.6%	3.88	3.74	+0.6
2023	32	MIX MLE	4 levels	53	6	60	248	67	13	7	11%	1.1	24.3%	5.8%	18.5%	3.6%	3.88	3.74	+0.6
2023	32	MIX RAW	4 levels	53	6	60	248	67	13	7	11%	1.1	27.0%	5.2%	21.8%	2.8%	3.88	3.03	+1.1
2024	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	56	239	63	24	11	0%	1.2	23.6%	9.6%	14.0%	4.7%	4.85	4.90	-0.2
2024	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	56	239	63	24	11	0%	1.2	23.6%	9.6%	14.0%	4.7%	4.85	4.90	-0.2
2024	33	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	0	56	239	63	24	11	0%	1.2	26.4%	10.0%	16.3%	4.6%	4.85	4.70	-0.1
2025	34	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	2	54	219	46	13	8	4%	1.1	18.5%	5.6%	12.9%	3.5%	2.98	4.15	+0.3
2025	34	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	2	54	219	46	13	8	4%	1.1	18.5%	5.6%	12.9%	3.5%	2.98	4.15	+0.3
2025	34	MIX RAW	2 levels	48	2	54	219	46	13	8	4%	1.1	21.0%	5.9%	15.1%	3.7%	2.98	4.04	+0.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			325	8	424	1739	434	112	62	2%	1.3	25.0%	6.4%	18.5%	3.6%	4.05	3.75	+4.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	35	MLB MLE	New York Mets	26	1	32	131	37	8	5	4%	1.2	31.9%	6.9%	25.0%	3.4%	3.69	3.14	—
YTD	35	MLB MLE	New York Mets	26	1	32	131	37	8	5	4%	1.2	31.9%	6.9%	25.0%	3.4%	3.69	3.14	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	35	ROK RAW	NYM	1	0	1	5	2	0	0	0%	1.0	40.0%	0.0%	40.0%	0.0%	9.00	-0.28	—
2026	35	A RAW	NYM	5	0	7	23	5	2	0	0%	1.3	21.7%	8.7%	13.0%	0.0%	0.00	2.37	—
2026	35	AAA RAW	NYM	11	1	16	65	25	5	2	9%	1.5	38.5%	7.7%	30.8%	3.1%	1.10	2.52	—
2026	35	MLB RAW	NYM	9	0	8	38	5	1	3	0%	0.9	13.2%	2.6%	10.5%	7.9%	11.74	6.66	—
SO FAR	35	MLB RAW	NYM	9	0	8	38	5	1	3	0%	0.9	13.2%	2.6%	10.5%	7.9%	11.74	6.66	—
ROS	35	MLB MLE	NYM	5	0	5	22	5	2	1	0%	1.1	22.3%	7.4%	14.9%	3.5%	4.06	4.10	+0.0
ROS	35	MLB CTX	NYM	5	0	5	21	5	2	1	0%	1.0	22.3%	7.4%	14.9%	3.5%	4.06	4.10	+0.0
2026 TOT	35	MLB MLE	NYM	—	—	37	153	42	10	6	—	—	27.4%	6.3%	21.1%	3.8%	3.75	3.28	+0.6
FULL	35	MLB A+C	NYM	—	—	13	55	42	10	6	—	—	76.8%	17.7%	59.2%	10.6%	10.70	4.66	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	36	MLB MLE	NYM	49	0	51	217	41	16	9	0%	1.0	18.9%	7.6%	11.3%	4.2%	5.00	5.16	-0.4
2028	37	MLB MLE	NYM	43	0	45	189	34	16	9	0%	1.0	17.8%	8.2%	9.6%	4.6%	5.34	5.56	-0.5
2027	36	MLB CTX	NYM	49	0	51	215	41	16	9	0%	1.0	18.9%	7.6%	11.3%	4.2%	5.00	5.16	-0.3
2028	37	MLB CTX	NYM	43	0	45	190	34	16	9	0%	1.0	17.8%	8.2%	9.6%	4.6%	5.34	5.56	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		422	8	526	2167	514	146	81	2%	1.2	23.7%	6.7%	17.0%	3.7%	4.25	3.99	+3.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		160	3	200	824	196	56	31	2%	1.2	23.7%	6.7%	17.0%	3.7%	4.25	3.99	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		465	38	676	2778	659	184	96	8%	1.5	23.7%	6.6%	17.1%	3.4%	3.65	3.82	+3.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		138	11	200	821	195	54	28	8%	1.5	23.7%	6.6%	17.1%	3.4%	3.65	3.82	+1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Chris Devenski (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.61	20.8%	7.4%	3.5%	—	5.35	18.4%	10.5%	96	+0.74	—	—	—
Jean Machi R 2017 · 4.12 FIP	35	SU	4.12	18.6%	6.6%	3.2%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	186	82
Josh Lueke R 2019 · 4.11 FIP	34	SU	4.11	20.4%	6.4%	3.5%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	107	81
Mark Serrano R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	33	SU	5.25	20.2%	7.9%	5.2%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	120	81
Wade Davis R 2021 · 5.18 FIP	35	SU	5.18	20.0%	10.0%	4.5%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	2.00	320	80
Hector Navarro R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	35	SU	4.35	15.0%	5.4%	3.3%	.281	3.00	15.2%	9.0%	81	-1.35	2.30	126	79
Ryan Madson R 2016 · 3.93 FIP	35	SU	3.93	18.1%	6.3%	2.9%	.284	2.40	27.2%	22.6%	112	-1.53	1.42	240	79
Casey Fien R 2017 · 5.10 FIP	33	SU	5.10	15.8%	4.0%	5.1%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	136	78
Manny Acosta R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	35	SU	4.19	18.1%	9.1%	2.7%	.273	3.08	23.2%	9.9%	44	-1.11	3.08	102	77
Mark Lowe R 2017 · 5.03 FIP	34	SU	5.03	16.4%	10.0%	3.7%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	2.37	153	77
Dustin McGowan R 2017 · 4.58 FIP	35	SU	4.58	19.4%	6.7%	4.2%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	208	77
Jim Johnson R 2018 · 4.48 FIP	35	SU	4.48	16.8%	7.8%	3.3%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	2.56	251	77
Fernando Rodney R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	38	SU	4.37	20.9%	9.4%	3.4%	.272	3.37	26.2%	15.2%	185	-1.00	2.69	295	77
Brian Schlitter R 2021 · 4.70 FIP	35	SU	4.70	14.9%	9.1%	3.1%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	3.28	244	75
Santiago Casilla R 2015 · 3.50 FIP	35	SU	3.50	25.4%	8.6%	2.7%	.290	3.97	22.4%	12.7%	161	+0.47	3.50	219	73
Ross Ohlendorf R 2016 · 4.93 FIP	33	SU	4.93	23.4%	10.7%	4.5%	.254	—	—	—	—	—	3.30	122	73
Shawn Kelley R 2019 · 4.97 FIP	35	SU	4.97	21.0%	4.4%	5.6%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	2.23	232	72
Rafael Martín R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	35	SU	4.71	22.5%	6.0%	5.0%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	227	71
Matt Albers R 2018 · 5.52 FIP	35	SU	5.52	20.4%	6.4%	6.1%	.333	4.13	22.1%	12.0%	60	-1.39	3.15	244	71
Tom Wilhelmsen R 2017 · 5.42 FIP	33	SU	5.42	14.3%	10.4%	4.0%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	3.07	148	71
Ramon E Ramirez R 2017 · 3.49 FIP	35	SU	3.49	14.0%	5.8%	1.5%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	2.37	140	70

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	51	19.3%	7.7%	1.58	4.94
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47
Jharel Cotton ('22)	1.2	58	19.8%	9.2%	1.59	4.50
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79