Morris Austin — OGILVIE

Morris Austin P Birmingham Barons

Age 26 RHP 6'2" / 215 lbs AA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 42 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131123vR 115

ERA5.17

FIP5.17

K%18.8%

BB%14.6%

K-BB%4.2%

ROS IP43

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 42 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	23	ROK MLE	ACL Brewers	4	0	4	15	5	4	0	0%	0.9	33.3%	26.7%	6.7%	0.0%	7.36	3.66	—
2023	23	ROK MLE	ACL Brewers	4	0	4	15	5	4	0	0%	0.9	33.3%	26.7%	6.7%	0.0%	7.36	3.66	—
2023	23	ROK RAW	ACL Brewers	4	0	4	15	5	4	0	0%	0.9	33.3%	26.7%	6.7%	0.0%	7.36	3.65	—
2024	24	A MLE	Carolina Mudcats	36	1	70	310	79	46	2	3%	1.9	18.9%	17.5%	1.3%	0.8%	4.26	4.14	—
2024	24	A MLE	Carolina Mudcats	36	1	70	310	79	46	2	3%	1.9	18.9%	17.5%	1.3%	0.8%	4.26	4.14	—
2024	24	A RAW	Carolina Mudcats	36	1	70	310	79	46	2	3%	1.9	25.5%	14.8%	10.6%	0.6%	4.26	3.19	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	57	242	55	29	2	0%	1.3	17.2%	13.9%	3.3%	1.1%	3.97	4.02	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	57	242	55	29	2	0%	1.3	17.2%	13.9%	3.3%	1.1%	3.97	4.02	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	0	57	242	55	29	2	0%	1.3	22.7%	12.0%	10.7%	0.8%	3.97	3.15	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	41	0	58	254	67	35	5	0%	1.4	20.7%	15.6%	5.1%	2.5%	4.34	4.69	—
YTD	26	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	41	0	58	254	67	35	5	0%	1.4	20.7%	15.6%	5.1%	2.5%	4.34	4.69	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	A+ RAW	CWS	16	0	24	100	31	15	1	0%	1.5	31.0%	15.0%	16.0%	1.0%	2.28	2.93	—
2026	26	AA RAW	CWS	23	0	32	144	33	19	4	0%	1.4	22.9%	13.2%	9.7%	2.8%	5.91	4.36	—
2026	26	AAA RAW	CWS	2	0	2	10	3	1	0	0%	1.1	30.0%	10.0%	20.0%	0.0%	3.86	1.83	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	CWS	59	0	62	261	50	37	7	0%	1.0	19.3%	14.2%	5.1%	2.7%	5.11	5.13	-0.4
2028	28	MLB MLE	CWS	57	0	60	253	49	35	7	0%	1.1	19.4%	14.0%	5.5%	2.8%	5.11	5.15	-0.4
2027	27	MLB CTX	CWS	22	0	23	97	19	14	3	0%	1.0	19.3%	14.2%	5.1%	2.7%	5.11	5.13	-0.2
2028	28	MLB CTX	CWS	34	0	36	152	30	21	4	0%	1.1	19.4%	14.0%	5.5%	2.8%	5.11	5.15	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		56	0	59	249	48	35	7	0%	1.1	19.4%	14.0%	5.3%	2.8%	5.11	4.76	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	163	119	24	0%	1.1	19.4%	14.0%	5.3%	2.8%	5.11	4.76	-0.5
Career	—	MLE		124	1	188	821	158	132	11	1%	1.5	19.2%	16.0%	3.2%	1.4%	4.26	4.27	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		132	1	200	873	168	140	12	1%	1.5	19.2%	16.0%	3.2%	1.4%	4.26	4.27	-1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Morris Austin (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.17	18.8%	14.6%	2.6%	—	5.14	19.4%	5.3%	122	-0.03	—	—	—
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	90
Armando Rivero R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	27	SU	4.29	18.7%	13.5%	1.9%	.256	2.70	32.9%	19.8%	68	-1.59	2.70	125	89
Derek Eitel R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	27	SU	4.35	18.1%	13.9%	1.8%	.338	4.26	19.7%	5.0%	113	-0.09	3.96	138	88
Justin Courtney R 2022 · 5.11 FIP	26	SU	5.11	16.8%	12.8%	3.3%	.331	8.63	18.4%	7.1%	21	+3.52	4.58	108	88
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	87
Juan Paniagua R 2016 · 4.57 FIP	26	SU	4.57	17.7%	14.7%	2.0%	.246	4.75	12.9%	-1.0%	29	+0.18	4.57	151	87
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	87
Ray Gaither R 2023 · 4.89 FIP	25	SU	4.89	18.1%	16.4%	2.3%	.278	4.19	17.7%	6.6%	90	-0.70	3.90	164	86
Dylan Hall R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	25	SU	3.98	21.0%	13.2%	1.8%	.305	7.24	15.1%	2.4%	58	+3.26	3.47	153	86
Brad Schreiber R 2017 · 4.23 FIP	26	SU	4.23	17.3%	12.7%	1.8%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	171	86
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	86
Jake Gilbert R 2022 · 4.65 FIP	25	SU	4.65	18.2%	16.2%	1.9%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	103	86
Rene Coss R 2015 · 4.11 FIP	26	SU	4.11	16.7%	13.9%	1.2%	.250	4.79	13.0%	2.1%	82	+0.68	3.84	123	85
Gonzalez Germen R 2015 · 4.24 FIP	27	SU	4.24	18.0%	12.5%	1.9%	.296	3.88	19.2%	8.3%	54	-0.36	3.70	146	85
Julian Arballo R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	27	SU	5.13	15.1%	13.8%	2.8%	.335	4.46	12.6%	0.6%	116	-0.67	4.45	214	85
Jacob Webb R 2023 · 4.55 FIP	24	SU	4.55	19.8%	15.3%	2.1%	.283	4.56	18.8%	8.2%	155	+0.01	3.33	268	85
Matt Lollis R 2016 · 4.95 FIP	25	SU	4.95	19.2%	14.5%	3.0%	.221	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	120	85
Cody Scroggins R 2022 · 4.50 FIP	25	SU	4.50	20.5%	16.2%	2.0%	.351	3.78	14.2%	4.6%	18	-0.72	3.78	108	85
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	85
Chase Plymell R 2023 · 4.23 FIP	25	SU	4.23	19.2%	13.0%	2.0%	.330	4.53	13.6%	5.9%	162	+0.30	3.85	291	85

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.8	55	19.2%	14.2%	1.05	5.13
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41