Juan Cruz — OGILVIE

Juan Cruz1B Fredericksburg Nationals

Age 21 R/R 6'5" / 240 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 ROS PROJECTION342 act + 8 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†73

AVG/OBP/SLG.125 / .125 / .125

PA8

HR0

K%38

BB%5

BABIP293

ISO134

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 52

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT25

scouting grade only

POWER52

scouting grade only

EYE41

scouting grade only

SPEED54

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.8M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
YTD	21	A MLE	WSH	—	342	321	72	17	2	10	14	127	5	10	3	224	268	383	651	159	333	37	4	279	75	-10	+1	+0	-6	+7	-0.8
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A RAW	WSH	—	342	311	91	24	3	12	22	89	5	10	3	293	347	505	852	212	373	26	6	371	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	21	A MLE	WSH	0%	8	8	1	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	125	125	125	250		294	38	0	276	73	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.0
TOT	21	A MLE	WSH	—	350	329	73	17	2	10	14	130	5	10	3	222	264	377	641	155	330	37	4	279	75	-10	+1	+0	-6	+8	-0.8
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	WSH	34%	454	423	94	20	3	13	23	138	5	9	2	222	271	376	646	154	294	30	5	284	79	-12	+1	+0	-8	+10	-0.9
2028	23	MLB MLE	WSH	48%	490	455	103	21	3	15	26	145	6	10	3	226	277	385	662	158	295	30	5	291	83	-10	+1	+0	-9	+11	-0.7
2029	24	MLB MLE	WSH	53%	529	488	111	23	3	16	30	154	6	11	3	227	281	385	666	158	296	29	6	295	86	-9	+1	+0	-9	+11	-0.6
2030	25	MLB MLE	WSH	55%	571	526	121	25	3	18	33	165	7	12	3	230	284	392	676	162	295	29	6	297	87	-9	+1	+0	-10	+12	-0.5
2031	26	MLB MLE	WSH	56%	617	570	131	27	4	19	35	178	7	13	4	230	283	391	674	161	295	29	6	298	88	-9	+1	+0	-11	+13	-0.6
2027	22	MLB CTX	WSH	34%	156	145	32	7	1	4	8	48	2	3	1	221	271	366	636	145	292	31	5	274	79	-4	+0	+0	-3	+3	-0.3
2028	23	MLB CTX	WSH	48%	237	219	49	10	1	7	13	70	3	5	1	224	277	374	651	151	293	30	5	280	83	-5	+1	+0	-4	+5	-0.3
2029	24	MLB CTX	WSH	53%	279	258	58	12	1	8	16	81	3	6	2	225	278	372	650	147	294	29	6	284	86	-5	+0	+0	-5	+6	-0.3
2030	25	MLB CTX	WSH	55%	312	287	67	14	2	10	18	90	4	7	2	233	288	401	689	167	294	29	6	287	87	-5	+1	+0	-6	+7	-0.3
2031	26	MLB CTX	WSH	56%	343	316	73	15	2	11	20	99	4	7	2	231	285	396	681	165	294	29	6	287	88	-5	+1	+0	-6	+7	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1327	1225	279	58	7	40	75	388	16	28	8	228	281	384	666	157	297	29	6	284	85	-23	+2	+0	-24	+29	-1.6
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	600	136	28	3	20	37	190	8	14	4	227	281	383	664	157	295	29	6	284	85	-11	+1	+0	-12	+14	-0.8
Career	—	MLE		—	2669	2470	561	116	16	81	147	783	31	55	15	227	279	385	665	158	296	29	6	293	85	-49	+5	+0	-48	+58	-3.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	602	137	28	4	20	36	191	8	13	4	228	281	387	668	159	297	29	6	293	85	-12	+1	+0	-12	+14	-0.8

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	4.8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
/162	664	20	20	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5
#2Justin Smoaklast yr '20 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,750 PA	7.2	4,750	196	3	229	322	419	-85	-77	1.9	3.9
/162	664	27	0	-11.9	-10.7	0.3	pk7: 6
#3Gaby Sanchezlast yr '14 career totals — 5 seasons, 2,240 PA	3.4	2,240	59	12	254	332	411	-40	-26	2.2	2.2
/162	664	17	4	-11.9	-7.8	0.6	pk7: 2
#4Ike Davislast yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,377 PA	3.6	2,377	81	7	239	332	416	-42	-36	1.7	1.7
/162	664	23	2	-11.9	-10.1	0.5	pk7: 2
#5Dayan Viciedolast yr '14 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,798 PA	2.7	1,798	66	2	254	298	424	-18	-29	0.3	0.3
/162	664	24	1	-6.6	-10.7	0.1	pk7: 0
#6Hunter Dozierlast yr '23 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,294 PA	3.5	2,294	73	19	238	305	421	-23	-45	0.0	0.0
/162	664	21	5	-6.5	-13.2	0.0	pk7: 0
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	2.5	1,648	48	33	225	274	379	-29	-4	-1.7	-0.8
/162	664	20	13	-11.9	-1.8	-0.7	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Juan Cruz (OGILVIE)	21	20→25	47→52	49→54	41	215/261/359	144	294	9	8	32%	5%	73	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Luis Hidalgo 2017 · A	21	37	44→45	47→45	43	190/252/303	113	229	13	12	24%	6%	57	-1.8	224/274/348	124	267	13	8	21%	5%	75	-0.5	259/302/380	121	288	12	8	14%	4%	90	+0.3
✕Aristides Aquino 2015 · A	21	37→41	47→60	50	34	194/233/333	139	262	14	11	32%	4%	56	-1.9	201/240/340	139	269	14	9	30%	4%	60	-1.6	212/278/428	216	266	32	9	33%	7%	91	+0.4
✕Johan Mieses 2016 · A	21	41→33	45→55	52→50	39	207/251/337	130	273	12	14	29%	5%	63	-1.3	187/234/345	158	264	20	4	37%	5%	60	-1.6	191/265/355	164	235	23	7	30%	7%	72	-0.4
✕Alexander Canario 2022 · A	22	36→34	50→60	50	36	193/240/341	148	278	18	14	37%	6%	61	-1.5	207/269/387	180	291	23	14	36%	7%	83	+0.1	201/270/393	193	274	26	13	36%	8%	82	-0.0
✕Iverson Leonardo 2023 · A	21	37	44→50	49→50	40	187/257/301	114	274	12	9	35%	7%	58	-1.7	198/280/293	95	349	7	8	41%	9%	65	-1.2	152/277/229	77	359	3	4	50%	12%	49	-0.5
✕Daz Cameron 2018 · A	21	40→45	45→50	53→55	40	202/262/329	127	284	11	19	32%	6%	66	-1.1	201/268/318	117	295	9	17	33%	7%	66	-1.1	225/296/393	168	284	19	27	27%	8%	91	+0.3
✕Jabari Henry 2013 · A	22	42→41	46→55	49→45	44	211/272/346	135	274	13	6	28%	7%	74	-0.6	207/286/361	154	270	17	6	28%	9%	83	+0.1	192/278/355	163	249	19	6	30%	10%	76	-0.3
✕Jhonkensy Noel 2021 · A	20	41→40	44→55	47→45	41	205/267/321	116	274	12	7	29%	6%	66	-1.1	215/264/381	166	280	22	5	31%	5%	80	-0.2	195/249/365	169	248	24	1	32%	5%	68	-0.6
✕Alberto Odreman 2010 · A	21	40	46→50	44→30	39	205/259/325	120	275	15	3	31%	6%	64	-1.3	196/246/297	101	298	10	5	35%	6%	52	-2.2	137/181/222	86	221	7	2	40%	5%	7	-1.1
✕Jose Paniagua 2015 · A	21	38	40→50	50→55	42	189/249/288	99	268	7	12	31%	7%	52	-2.2	198/248/295	97	288	8	8	32%	6%	53	-2.1	179/215/276	97	256	10	2	33%	3%	32	-1.0
✕Marino Campana 2019 · A	21	39→37	47→55	49→45	35	203/247/342	139	281	15	4	33%	4%	63	-1.3	195/242/309	114	324	11	6	41%	5%	53	-2.1	102/141/153	51	225	6	3	56%	4%	-22	-1.5
✕Stanley Martinez 2018 · A	21	42	41→45	49→50	46	203/276/300	97	261	8	8	25%	7%	65	-1.2	227/289/332	105	321	9	7	30%	7%	77	-0.3	220/280/293	72	342	5	3	34%	6%	61	-0.4
✕Walking Cabrera 2022 · A	21	40→37	45	53→45	44	205/266/330	125	268	13	13	28%	7%	68	-1.0	196/249/300	104	292	10	8	34%	6%	55	-2.0	184/237/285	101	275	10	6	35%	6%	45	-1.6
✕Luis Matos 2023 · A	21	42→52	44→50	49→50	41	209/250/324	114	243	12	12	20%	4%	60	-1.6	231/282/369	138	250	16	12	15%	6%	83	+0.1	237/289/389	152	247	18	13	13%	6%	88	+0.4
✕Sean Coyle 2013 · A	21	38→36	45→50	54→50	38	193/255/316	124	276	12	13	34%	6%	61	-1.5	204/262/352	148	296	18	14	36%	6%	72	-0.7	194/255/352	157	279	21	15	37%	7%	68	-0.5
✕Coby Mayo 2023 · AA	21	42→45	50→60	51→45	41	217/278/369	152	291	18	8	31%	7%	82	-0.0	222/298/396	174	297	20	5	30%	9%	95	+1.0	216/298/397	181	285	21	4	30%	9%	93	+0.7
✕Michael A. Taylor 2012 · A	21	39→49	44→55	49→60	36	196/239/313	117	273	11	12	32%	5%	53	-2.1	203/255/318	115	309	10	22	35%	6%	61	-1.5	240/298/383	143	310	19	14	28%	7%	90	+0.5
✕Brayan Buelvas 2023 · A	21	34→43	46→45	50→55	39	183/243/312	128	244	14	13	31%	6%	55	-1.9	192/254/310	118	276	11	18	33%	7%	59	-1.7	197/258/324	127	284	12	14	34%	7%	60	-1.1
●Trayce Thompson 2012 · A	21	35→45	48→60	45→50	36	186/243/331	145	276	16	6	38%	6%	60	-1.6	191/251/336	145	278	16	13	36%	6%	64	-1.3	206/295/413	207	291	28	7	37%	10%	97	+0.6
✕Christian Villanueva 2012 · A	21	44→46	43→55	53→50	40	217/263/333	116	270	11	16	24%	5%	67	-1.1	216/266/341	125	279	12	9	27%	5%	70	-0.8	223/280/397	174	256	23	3	23%	6%	88	+0.3

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps