Juan Cruz — OGILVIE

Juan Cruz1B Fredericksburg Nationals

Age 21 R/R 6'5" / 240 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 ROS PROJECTION198 act + 132 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†66

AVG/OBP/SLG.211 / .260 / .350

PA132

HR3

K%33

BB%5

BABIP299

ISO138

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	21	A	WSH	—	198	189	38	11	1	6	8	82	1	3	1	201	237	365	602	164	317	41	4	255	53	-10	+0	+0	-4	+6	-0.8
YTD	21	A	WSH	—	198	182	49	15	1	8	13	58	1	3	1	269	318	495	813	225	353	29	7	353	129	+6	+0	+0	-4	+6	0.9
ROS	21	A	WSH	0%	132	123	26	6	1	3	7	44	1	2	1	211	260	350	609	138	298	33	5	272	66	-5	+0	+0	-2	+4	-0.4
ROS	21	MLB	WSH	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		298	—	—	267	63	—	—	+0	-0	—	—
FULL	21	A	WSH	—	198	190	38	11	1	6	8	82	1	3	1	200	237	363	601	163	314	41	4	255	53	-10	+0	+0	-4	+6	-0.8
TOT	21	A	WSH	—	330	312	64	17	2	9	15	126	2	5	2	205	246	359	605	154	309	38	5	262	59	-15	+0	+0	-6	+9	-1.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	22	MLB	WSH	34%	484	449	97	21	3	13	28	157	4	8	2	216	268	363	631	147	296	32	6	279	71	-16	+1	+0	-9	+14	-1.0
2028	23	MLB	WSH	48%	541	500	110	24	3	15	32	171	4	9	3	220	272	370	642	150	296	32	6	284	76	-15	+1	+0	-10	+15	-0.9
2027	22	MLB	WSH	34%	166	154	33	7	1	5	10	54	1	3	1	214	267	370	637	156	296	33	6	273	67	-6	+0	+0	-3	+5	-0.4
2028	23	MLB	WSH	48%	262	242	53	12	1	7	16	83	2	4	1	219	273	364	637	145	296	32	6	279	72	-8	+0	+0	-5	+7	-0.5
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	428	397	86	19	2	12	26	137	3	7	2	217	271	365	636	149	296	32	6	277	70	-15	+1	+0	-8	+12	-1.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	603	130	29	3	18	39	208	5	11	3	216	270	363	633	148	295	32	6	277	70	-22	+1	+0	-12	+18	-1.5
Career	—			—	1157	1072	233	51	7	31	67	372	9	19	6	217	269	365	634	147	299	32	6	281	73	-35	+1	+0	-21	+33	-2.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	602	131	29	4	17	38	209	5	11	3	218	270	364	634	146	301	32	6	281	73	-20	+1	+0	-12	+18	-1.2

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
	/162	664	20	20	241	309	409	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5
#2Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	7	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
#2Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	/162	664	19	6	236	292	400	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#3Chad Pinderlast yr '22 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,740 PA	7	1,740	62	5	242	294	417	-17	-20	0.6	0.6
	/162	664	24	2	242	294	417	-6.5	-7.6	0.2	pk7: 1
#4Hunter Dozierlast yr '23 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,294 PA	6	2,294	73	19	238	305	421	-23	-45	0.0	0.0
	/162	664	21	5	238	305	421	-6.5	-13.2	0.0	pk7: 0
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	2	748	19	12	218	268	361	-13	-3	-1.5	-0.7
	/162	664	17	11	218	268	361	-11.9	-2.7	-1.3	pk7: 0
#5Brennan Boeschlast yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,713 PA	6	1,713	48	22	250	303	400	-17	-35	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	19	9	250	303	400	-6.6	-13.6	-0.4	pk7: -1
#6Domonic Brownlast yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,748 PA	6	1,748	54	23	246	305	405	-19	-39	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	21	9	246	305	405	-7.1	-14.7	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Juan Cruz (OGILVIE)	21	—	—	—	—	205/246/359	154	309	9	5	38%	5%	59	-1.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jhonkensy Noel 2021 · A	20	41→40	44→55	47→45	41	205/267/321	116	274	12	7	29%	6%	62	-0.9	215/265/384	169	280	22	5	31%	5%	78	+0.2	194/257/378	183	244	25	1	32%	6%	70	-0.3
✕Ramon Alvarado 2006 · A	21	44	44→45	49→50	44	216/294/339	122	282	11	10	26%	7%	79	+0.3	205/269/308	103	276	10	9	28%	6%	59	-1.1	149/205/231	81	185	13	9	27%	4%	14	-0.8
✕Jose Medina 2008 · A	21	42	44→45	45→50	46	208/284/326	117	271	12	10	27%	8%	71	-0.3	206/282/321	115	291	11	8	31%	8%	69	-0.4	181/269/305	124	250	11	4	30%	6%	59	-0.2
✕Malcom Nuñez 2021 · A	20	46→42	46→45	50→45	44	229/285/358	129	285	14	6	25%	6%	79	+0.3	223/284/344	121	292	14	6	27%	7%	75	-0.0	217/283/338	121	282	16	4	28%	7%	70	-0.2
✕Jabari Henry 2013 · A	22	42→40	46→55	49→45	44	211/272/346	135	274	13	6	28%	7%	70	-0.3	203/283/350	147	273	16	6	30%	9%	76	+0.1	186/275/344	157	252	18	6	32%	10%	68	-0.3
✕Clint Coulter 2014 · A	21	41→42	42→50	44→40	42	203/268/308	105	278	10	5	30%	7%	59	-1.1	211/283/348	137	270	14	4	26%	7%	76	+0.1	202/269/353	151	245	18	4	25%	5%	68	-0.1
✕Patrick Leonard 2015 · A	22	42→49	45	52→50	40	209/267/331	123	293	13	8	32%	6%	65	-0.7	215/274/331	116	315	10	10	33%	6%	67	-0.5	210/268/321	110	305	10	11	33%	6%	59	-1.0
✕Stanley Martinez 2018 · A	21	42	41→45	49→50	46	203/276/300	97	261	8	8	25%	7%	61	-1.0	227/289/332	105	321	9	7	30%	7%	74	-0.1	220/280/293	72	342	5	3	34%	6%	56	-0.4
✕Johermyn Chavez 2010 · A	21	41→45	45→50	46→45	35	204/254/323	119	297	13	7	35%	5%	56	-1.3	213/269/350	137	287	16	5	31%	5%	70	-0.3	207/268/344	138	272	17	4	30%	6%	66	-0.5
✕Alberto Odreman 2010 · A	21	40	46→50	44→30	39	205/259/325	120	275	15	3	31%	6%	59	-1.1	196/246/296	100	299	10	5	36%	6%	46	-2.0	136/180/222	86	222	7	2	41%	5%	-6	-1.2
✕Wuilmer Becerra 2016 · A	21	48→51	45	46→50	38	235/277/354	119	314	13	10	29%	5%	74	-0.1	231/276/314	83	346	6	11	33%	5%	63	-0.9	223/273/281	57	356	3	12	36%	5%	50	-1.0
✕Devin Davis 2018 · A	21	41	46→45	47→30	40	209/265/339	130	282	13	4	30%	6%	66	-0.6	207/260/308	101	286	9	3	29%	6%	55	-1.4	198/251/289	91	275	9	1	30%	5%	44	-1.4
✕Brahiam Maldonado 2007 · A	21	41→44	43→55	51→50	40	201/261/321	120	296	10	8	34%	7%	59	-1.1	218/263/340	122	322	12	9	34%	5%	65	-0.7	216/265/341	125	322	14	10	35%	5%	63	-0.5
●Ryan Royster 2007 · A	21	40→50	49→50	51→45	36	210/254/353	143	287	18	8	33%	5%	65	-0.7	235/275/377	142	333	17	8	33%	5%	79	+0.3	226/267/354	127	325	15	6	34%	5%	67	-0.4
✕Conner Capel 2018 · A	21	40→46	46→50	49→55	42	204/258/333	129	267	13	11	28%	6%	61	-1.0	214/265/332	118	288	11	11	28%	6%	63	-0.8	213/283/334	121	267	13	19	25%	8%	68	-0.4
✕Matthew Lugo 2023 · A	22	47→48	45→55	52→50	40	233/278/362	129	297	12	13	26%	5%	76	+0.1	213/262/357	144	294	15	14	32%	5%	69	-0.4	204/267/368	164	283	19	16	34%	6%	70	-0.2
✕Marino Campana 2019 · A	21	39→37	49→55	49→45	36	205/249/353	148	279	16	4	33%	4%	63	-0.9	194/241/311	117	325	12	6	42%	5%	47	-1.9	94/134/138	43	224	5	3	58%	4%	-45	-1.6
✕Marco Luciano 2023 · A	21	41→49	48→50	44→45	40	208/265/345	137	289	16	4	33%	6%	67	-0.5	209/286/350	141	307	17	7	35%	9%	78	+0.2	204/288/354	149	289	19	8	34%	10%	77	+0.1
✕Jose Peroza 2021 · A	21	43→44	47→45	49→45	38	214/267/351	137	301	14	7	33%	6%	69	-0.4	210/279/332	122	318	12	5	35%	7%	70	-0.3	203/275/326	123	308	13	4	36%	7%	65	-0.5
✕Francisco Rodriguez 2016 · A	21	40	42→45	46→50	48	196/289/304	108	280	10	9	31%	10%	68	-0.5	185/262/277	92	319	7	6	41%	7%	50	-1.8	144/219/247	103	250	8	2	43%	6%	20	-0.9