Ivan Melendez
1B Reno Aces| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 24 | AAARI | 442 | .238/.312/.434 | 22 | 3 | 53 | — | .190/.249/.317 |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA/AAARI | 380 | .267/.351/.480 | 19 | 2 | 68 | — | .201/.271/.329 |
| 2026 | 26 | AAAARI | 50 | .222/.286/.378 | 2 | 0 | 45 | — | .174/.224/.261 |
| 2027PROJ10% MLB | 27 | MLBARI | 10 | .214/.276/.352 | 0 | 0 | 74 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ31% MLB | 28 | MLBARI | 50 | .214/.276/.350 | 1 | 0 | 74 | -0.2 |
Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 60
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 22 | A | Visalia Rawhide | — | 106 | 87 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 20 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 207 | 349 | 368 | 717 | 161 | 234 | 19 | 9 | 333 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 170 | 153 | 42 | 5 | 1 | 12 | 10 | 60 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 275 | 339 | 556 | 895 | 281 | 361 | 35 | 6 | 385 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Hillsboro Hops | — | 256 | 226 | 61 | 17 | 1 | 18 | 21 | 86 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 270 | 353 | 593 | 946 | 323 | 350 | 34 | 8 | 406 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | INTL | Salt River Rafters | — | 97 | 83 | 19 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 27 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 229 | 340 | 386 | 726 | 157 | 315 | 28 | 10 | 331 | 110 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 442 | 399 | 95 | 10 | 1 | 22 | 34 | 133 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 238 | 312 | 434 | 746 | 195 | 299 | 30 | 8 | 332 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA | Reno Aces | — | 98 | 89 | 26 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 24 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 292 | 351 | 483 | 834 | 191 | 365 | 24 | 7 | 364 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 282 | 244 | 63 | 6 | 0 | 16 | 28 | 69 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 258 | 351 | 480 | 831 | 221 | 290 | 24 | 10 | 364 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA | Reno Aces | — | 50 | 45 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 222 | 286 | 378 | 663 | 156 | 286 | 32 | 6 | 292 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 22 | A MLE | Visalia Rawhide | — | 106 | 90 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 27 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 178 | 302 | 300 | 602 | 122 | 213 | 25 | 7 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA MLE | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 170 | 155 | 29 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 73 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 187 | 250 | 323 | 573 | 135 | 293 | 43 | 5 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ MLE | Hillsboro Hops | — | 256 | 233 | 45 | 12 | 1 | 13 | 14 | 118 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 193 | 263 | 421 | 683 | 227 | 300 | 46 | 5 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 442 | 410 | 78 | 8 | 1 | 14 | 23 | 160 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 190 | 249 | 317 | 566 | 127 | 270 | 36 | 5 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA MLE | Reno Aces | — | 98 | 91 | 23 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 28 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 253 | 299 | 396 | 695 | 143 | 328 | 29 | 5 | 304 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA MLE | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 282 | 252 | 46 | 4 | 0 | 9 | 20 | 87 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 183 | 262 | 306 | 567 | 123 | 230 | 31 | 7 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA MLE | Reno Aces | — | 50 | 46 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 174 | 224 | 261 | 485 | 87 | 261 | 38 | 4 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A MLE | Visalia Rawhide | — | 106 | 90 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 27 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 178 | 302 | 300 | 602 | 122 | 230 | 25 | 7 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A RAW | Visalia Rawhide | — | 106 | 87 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 20 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 207 | 349 | 368 | 717 | 161 | 234 | 19 | 9 | 333 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 523 | 476 | 91 | 19 | 2 | 23 | 27 | 234 | 17 | 5 | 2 | 191 | 260 | 384 | 644 | 193 | 306 | 45 | 5 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 523 | 462 | 122 | 27 | 3 | 32 | 41 | 173 | 17 | 5 | 2 | 264 | 346 | 543 | 889 | 279 | 346 | 33 | 8 | 385 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 442 | 410 | 78 | 8 | 1 | 14 | 23 | 160 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 190 | 249 | 317 | 566 | 127 | 271 | 36 | 5 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA RAW | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 442 | 399 | 95 | 10 | 1 | 22 | 34 | 133 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 238 | 312 | 434 | 746 | 195 | 299 | 30 | 8 | 332 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 380 | 343 | 70 | 9 | 1 | 12 | 25 | 115 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 204 | 274 | 341 | 615 | 137 | 264 | 30 | 7 | 268 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 380 | 333 | 89 | 12 | 1 | 19 | 35 | 93 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 267 | 351 | 480 | 832 | 213 | 311 | 24 | 9 | 364 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA MLE | Reno Aces | — | 50 | 46 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 174 | 224 | 261 | 485 | 87 | 259 | 38 | 4 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA RAW | Reno Aces | — | 50 | 45 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 222 | 286 | 378 | 663 | 156 | 286 | 32 | 6 | 292 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A MLE | Visalia Rawhide | — | 106 | 89 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 27 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 180 | 302 | 303 | 605 | 124 | 213 | 25 | 7 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 523 | 474 | 91 | 19 | 2 | 23 | 27 | 234 | 17 | 5 | 2 | 192 | 260 | 386 | 646 | 194 | 297 | 45 | 5 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 442 | 407 | 78 | 8 | 1 | 14 | 23 | 160 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 192 | 249 | 319 | 568 | 128 | 270 | 36 | 5 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 380 | 344 | 70 | 9 | 1 | 12 | 25 | 115 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 203 | 274 | 340 | 614 | 137 | 255 | 30 | 7 | 268 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA MLE | Reno Aces | — | 50 | 47 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 170 | 224 | 255 | 480 | 85 | 261 | 38 | 4 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | Amarillo Sod Poodles | — | 442 | 407 | 78 | 8 | 1 | 14 | 23 | 160 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 192 | 249 | 319 | 568 | 128 | 270 | 36 | 5 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 380 | 344 | 70 | 9 | 1 | 12 | 25 | 115 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 203 | 274 | 340 | 614 | 137 | 255 | 30 | 7 | 268 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA MLE | Reno Aces | — | 50 | 47 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 170 | 224 | 255 | 480 | 85 | 261 | 38 | 4 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB MLE | ARI | 10% | 200 | 182 | 39 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 12 | 62 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 211 | 272 | 349 | 621 | 138 | 278 | 31 | 6 | 278 | 74 | -6 | +0 | +0 | -4 | +4 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB CTX | ARI | 10% | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 214 | 276 | 352 | 628 | 138 | 285 | 30 | 10 | 281 | 74 | -0 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 28 | MLB MLE | ARI | 31% | 161 | 147 | 31 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 49 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 210 | 272 | 347 | 619 | 136 | 277 | 30 | 6 | 277 | 74 | -5 | +0 | -1 | -3 | +3 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB CTX | ARI | 31% | 50 | 46 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 214 | 276 | 350 | 626 | 136 | 284 | 30 | 6 | 280 | 74 | -2 | +0 | -0 | -1 | +1 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 50 | 46 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 217 | 280 | 326 | 606 | 109 | 300 | 30 | 6 | 280 | 65 | -2 | +0 | -0 | -1 | +1 | -0.2 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 598 | 130 | 26 | 0 | 13 | 39 | 195 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 217 | 280 | 326 | 606 | 109 | 300 | 30 | 6 | 280 | 65 | -20 | +0 | -3 | -12 | +14 | -2.1 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1767 | 1608 | 314 | 48 | 5 | 60 | 100 | 636 | 49 | 12 | 3 | 195 | 264 | 343 | 607 | 148 | 275 | 36 | 6 | 265 | 65 | -8 | +0 | -1 | -5 | +6 | -0.8 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 592 | 116 | 18 | 2 | 22 | 37 | 234 | 18 | 4 | 1 | 196 | 265 | 345 | 609 | 149 | 276 | 36 | 6 | 265 | 65 | -20 | +1 | -2 | -12 | +14 | -1.9 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAAReno Aces · 50 PAwOBA .290 → .234 (−56)K% 32.0% → 38.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 32.00% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 38.40% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 4.21% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 1.91% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.14% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.018 | 22.85% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.45% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.018 | 2.91% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.90% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 4.91% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .290 → .234; ISO .156 → .109; BABIP .286 → .261. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 282 PAwOBA .358 → .255 (−103)K% 24.5% → 30.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.47% | ÷0.972 | ×1.220 | — | — | 30.72% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.93% | ÷0.994 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 6.98% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.48% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.998 | 2.16% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.43% | ÷1.041 | ×0.920 | ×0.954 | ×0.998 | 19.71% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.43% | ÷1.119 | ×0.840 | ×0.954 | ×0.998 | 2.45% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.985 | ×0.940 | ×0.954 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.14% | ÷1.333 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 5.48% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 167, 1B 108, 2B 124, 3B 97, K 94, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.954.
Result: wOBA .358 → .255; ISO .221 → .131; BABIP .290 → .230. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAAReno Aces · 98 PAwOBA .358 → .304 (−54)K% 24.5% → 28.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.49% | ÷1.025 | ×1.200 | — | — | 28.66% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.14% | ÷0.964 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 5.28% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.02% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 0.99% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.62% | ÷0.994 | ×0.930 | ×0.977 | ×1.033 | 23.24% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.23% | ÷1.069 | ×0.830 | ×0.977 | ×1.033 | 7.24% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.54% | ÷0.902 | ×0.970 | ×0.977 | ×1.033 | 1.67% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.62% | ÷0.904 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 3.69% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 99, 2B 114, 3B 80, K 105, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.977.
Result: wOBA .358 → .304; ISO .191 → .155; BABIP .365 → .328. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 442 PAwOBA .323 → .247 (−75)K% 30.1% → 36.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.09% | ÷1.018 | ×1.220 | — | — | 36.06% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.69% | ÷1.026 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 5.31% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.04% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.012 | 1.79% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.31% | ÷0.974 | ×0.920 | ×0.982 | ×1.012 | 21.89% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.76% | ÷0.966 | ×0.840 | ×0.982 | ×1.012 | 3.25% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.38% | ÷0.987 | ×0.940 | ×0.982 | ×1.012 | 0.36% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.27% | ÷1.229 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 5.45% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 146, 1B 95, 2B 93, 3B 97, K 104, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.982.
Result: wOBA .323 → .247; ISO .195 → .128; BABIP .299 → .270. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Hillsboro Hops · 256 PAwOBA .396 → .289 (−108)K% 33.6% → 45.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 33.59% | ÷0.987 | ×1.350 | — | — | 45.93% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.20% | ÷1.038 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 5.60% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.12% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×0.998 | 2.53% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.86% | ÷0.980 | ×0.910 | ×0.966 | ×0.998 | 15.98% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.14% | ÷0.947 | ×0.830 | ×0.966 | ×0.998 | 10.25% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.71% | ÷0.900 | ×0.820 | ×0.966 | ×0.998 | 0.63% |
| Home runs /BIP | 12.86% | ÷0.952 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.998 | 11.19% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 96, 2B 89, 3B 80, K 97, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.966.
Result: wOBA .396 → .289; ISO .323 → .235; BABIP .350 → .300. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 170 PAwOBA .378 → .253 (−125)K% 35.3% → 42.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 35.29% | ÷1.003 | ×1.220 | — | — | 42.94% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.88% | ÷0.922 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 4.59% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.94% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.027 | 2.63% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.81% | ÷1.054 | ×0.920 | ×0.981 | ×1.027 | 22.71% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.38% | ÷1.008 | ×0.840 | ×0.981 | ×1.027 | 4.51% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.08% | ÷1.124 | ×0.940 | ×0.981 | ×1.027 | 0.91% |
| Home runs /BIP | 12.90% | ÷1.637 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 6.48% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 227, 1B 111, 2B 102, 3B 125, K 101, BB 84 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.981.
Result: wOBA .378 → .253; ISO .281 → .143; BABIP .361 → .293. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AVisalia Rawhide · 106 PAwOBA .324 → .259 (−65)K% 18.9% → 25.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.87% | ÷1.001 | ×1.360 | — | — | 25.63% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.43% | ÷1.023 | ×0.690 | — | — | 6.36% |
| HBP% /PA | 8.49% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 6.62% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.42% | ÷0.997 | ×0.920 | ×1.006 | — | 15.25% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.48% | ÷0.942 | ×0.830 | ×1.006 | — | 3.97% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.49% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×1.006 | — | 1.37% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.48% | ÷1.062 | ×0.800 | — | — | 3.37% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 99, 2B 88, 3B 100, K 100, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.006.
Result: wOBA .324 → .259; ISO .161 → .126; BABIP .234 → .213. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .