Tzu-Chen Sha

P Lansing Lugnuts

Age 23 RHP 6'2" / 165 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.9 · 2030

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	20	AOAK	24	12	85	6.33	5.60	16.4%	6.9%	—	K 12.1% · BB 8.2% · FIP 6.25
2025	21	MIX2 levels	24	17	100	4.15	3.30	20.4%	7.0%	—	K 15.3% · BB 8.1% · FIP 4.21
2026	22	A+OAK	25	11	72	8.71	4.66	16.8%	6.9%	—	K 12.9% · BB 7.9% · FIP 5.48
2027PROJ	23	MLBOAK	9	9	62	5.00	5.00	13.9%	6.8%	-0.1
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBOAK	6	6	40	4.77	4.70	16.4%	6.6%	0.1
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBOAK	9	9	62	4.61	4.54	17.9%	6.6%	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Arb-1$1M+2

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Control60Command60

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsDustin McGowan (age 23) · Zach Miner (age 24) · Nick Trogrlic-Iverson (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128120vR 112

ERA5.00

FIP5.00

K%13.9%

BB%6.8%

K-BB%7.1%

Proj IP62

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 62 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$6M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL6060

CMD6060

K†3050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.3M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-1	$1M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-2	$2M	—	—	—
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$2M	+$0.6M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	7	52	225	53	8	6	50%	3.7	16.4%	4.3%	12.1%	3.7%	4.53	4.29	—
2023	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	7	52	225	53	8	6	50%	3.7	23.6%	3.6%	20.0%	2.7%	4.53	3.02	—
2024	20	A MLE	Stockton Ports	24	12	85	390	64	27	20	50%	3.6	12.1%	8.2%	4.0%	5.7%	6.33	6.25	—
2024	20	A MLE	Stockton Ports	24	12	85	390	64	27	20	50%	3.6	12.1%	8.2%	4.0%	5.7%	6.33	6.25	—
2024	20	A RAW	Stockton Ports	24	12	85	390	64	27	20	50%	3.6	16.4%	6.9%	9.5%	5.1%	6.33	5.60	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	17	100	427	87	30	8	71%	4.2	15.3%	8.1%	7.1%	2.5%	4.15	4.21	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	17	100	427	87	30	8	71%	4.2	15.3%	8.1%	7.1%	2.5%	4.15	4.21	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	17	100	427	87	30	8	71%	4.2	20.4%	7.0%	13.3%	1.9%	4.15	3.30	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	25	11	72	334	56	23	12	44%	2.9	12.9%	7.9%	5.0%	4.5%	8.71	5.48	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	25	11	72	334	56	23	12	44%	2.9	12.9%	7.9%	5.0%	4.5%	8.71	5.48	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	Lansing Lugnuts	25	11	72	334	56	23	12	44%	2.9	16.8%	6.9%	9.9%	3.6%	8.71	4.66	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	OAK	9	9	62	262	36	18	9	100%	6.9	13.9%	6.8%	7.1%	3.3%	5.00	5.00	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	OAK	14	14	92	388	64	26	13	100%	6.6	16.4%	6.6%	9.8%	3.3%	4.81	4.74	+0.2
2029	25	MLB MLE	OAK	14	14	93	393	70	26	13	100%	6.6	17.9%	6.6%	11.3%	3.2%	4.65	4.58	+0.3
2030	26	MLB MLE	OAK	14	14	93	393	74	26	13	100%	6.6	18.9%	6.6%	12.2%	3.2%	4.55	4.50	+0.4
2031	27	MLB MLE	OAK	14	14	92	387	73	26	13	100%	6.5	18.9%	6.7%	12.2%	3.3%	4.53	4.53	+0.4
2032	28	MLB MLE	OAK	14	14	89	375	71	26	13	100%	6.4	18.8%	6.9%	11.9%	3.4%	4.58	4.61	+0.3
2033	29	MLB MLE	OAK	13	13	85	358	67	25	13	100%	6.5	18.6%	7.1%	11.5%	3.5%	4.68	4.74	+0.2
2034	30	MLB MLE	OAK	12	12	80	337	68	22	13	100%	6.6	20.2%	6.6%	13.6%	3.7%	4.66	4.65	+0.2
2035	31	MLB MLE	OAK	11	11	74	314	62	22	12	100%	6.8	19.8%	6.9%	12.9%	3.9%	4.78	4.85	+0.0
2028	24	MLB CTX	OAK	6	6	40	169	28	11	5	100%	6.7	16.4%	6.6%	9.8%	3.2%	4.77	4.70	+0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	OAK	9	9	62	262	47	17	8	100%	6.9	17.9%	6.6%	11.3%	3.2%	4.61	4.54	+0.2
2030	26	MLB CTX	OAK	11	11	74	312	59	21	10	100%	6.7	18.9%	6.6%	12.2%	3.1%	4.51	4.46	+0.3
2031	27	MLB CTX	OAK	12	12	78	329	62	22	11	100%	6.5	18.9%	6.7%	12.2%	3.2%	4.49	4.49	+0.3
2032	28	MLB CTX	OAK	12	12	79	334	63	23	11	100%	6.6	18.8%	6.9%	11.9%	3.3%	4.53	4.56	+0.3
2033	29	MLB CTX	OAK	12	12	77	325	60	23	11	100%	6.4	18.6%	7.1%	11.5%	3.4%	4.63	4.69	+0.1
2034	30	MLB CTX	OAK	11	11	74	312	63	21	11	100%	6.7	20.2%	6.6%	13.6%	3.6%	4.61	4.60	+0.2
2035	31	MLB CTX	OAK	10	10	69	291	58	20	11	100%	6.9	19.8%	6.9%	12.9%	3.9%	4.73	4.80	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		84	84	552	2332	439	158	79	100%	6.6	18.8%	6.8%	12.1%	3.4%	4.60	4.22	+4.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		30	30	200	844	159	57	29	100%	6.6	18.8%	6.8%	12.1%	3.4%	4.60	4.22	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		87	47	309	1376	193	103	56	54%	3.6	14.0%	7.5%	6.5%	4.1%	5.88	5.11	+2.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		56	30	200	891	125	66	36	54%	3.6	14.0%	7.5%	6.5%	4.1%	5.88	5.11	+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tzu-Chen Sha (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.00	13.9%	6.8%	3.3%	—	4.61	17.7%	11.1%	278	-0.39	—	—	—
Dustin McGowan R 2005 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP-	4.62	16.6%	8.3%	3.4%	.286	3.65	19.1%	10.3%	308	-0.97	3.36	690	90
Zach Miner R 2006 · 4.35 FIP	24	SP-	4.35	14.8%	7.8%	2.8%	.300	4.24	13.8%	4.6%	264	-0.11	3.55	386	87
Nick Trogrlic-Iverson R 2021 · 4.98 FIP	23	SP-	4.98	12.7%	9.1%	3.3%	.348	3.92	16.5%	8.0%	135	-1.06	3.30	218	85
Matt Peacock R 2018 · 4.20 FIP	24	SP-	4.20	16.0%	7.6%	2.7%	.300	4.27	13.6%	5.2%	202	+0.07	3.93	354	84
Connor Johnstone R 2018 · 4.40 FIP	23	SW	4.40	15.7%	7.6%	3.0%	.272	4.51	12.9%	7.9%	166	+0.11	3.78	319	84
Houston Roth R 2021 · 4.63 FIP	23	SW	4.63	16.4%	10.5%	2.9%	.263	4.83	20.8%	8.3%	228	+0.20	3.79	406	83
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	83
Joe DeMers R 2019 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	13.6%	4.9%	3.5%	.329	3.98	10.6%	3.7%	72	-0.49	3.49	167	82
Kyle Scott R 2024 · 4.12 FIP	22	SP-	4.12	17.7%	8.2%	2.7%	.269	3.94	15.9%	4.3%	42	-0.18	3.94	138	82
Justin Dillon R 2018 · 5.26 FIP	24	SP-	5.26	11.8%	8.8%	3.7%	.265	4.34	15.6%	9.1%	124	-0.92	3.65	239	82
Michael Santos R 2018 · 4.41 FIP	23	SW	4.41	17.4%	9.1%	2.9%	.289	4.87	15.0%	6.4%	49	+0.46	2.26	276	81
Nick Payero R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	24	SP-	4.21	16.5%	6.3%	3.1%	.285	5.81	16.6%	4.6%	107	+1.60	4.21	178	81
Luke Young R 2024 · 5.51 FIP	22	SP-	5.51	13.7%	8.7%	4.5%	.284	5.05	17.0%	4.9%	116	-0.46	4.68	308	81
Darrell Rasner R 2006 · 4.07 FIP	25	SP-	4.07	13.3%	6.0%	2.4%	.246	4.56	12.5%	5.2%	138	+0.49	4.07	158	81
Chad Bettis R 2013 · 4.38 FIP	24	SP-	4.38	14.4%	8.7%	2.6%	.318	3.81	17.4%	10.4%	365	-0.57	3.67	672	81
Yaisel Sierra R 2016 · 4.32 FIP	25	SW	4.32	16.9%	8.6%	2.8%	.338	3.04	22.4%	12.3%	71	-1.28	3.04	176	81
Charlie Ruegger R 2019 · 5.43 FIP	22	SW	5.43	10.6%	7.9%	4.0%	.325	4.60	16.2%	4.3%	72	-0.83	4.17	117	81
Dakota Hawkins R 2024 · 4.31 FIP	24	SW	4.31	16.3%	8.9%	2.7%	.277	4.32	19.4%	10.4%	102	+0.01	3.50	186	80
Cale Lansville R 2024 · 3.90 FIP	21	SP-	3.90	15.1%	7.7%	2.0%	.325	5.07	12.8%	0.1%	38	+1.17	3.90	113	80
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.71	16.1%	6.1%	316	+0.16	3.97	371	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.8	84	18.2%	6.7%	1.33	4.68
Ron Taylor ('62-'72, 3 WAR*)	4.0	80	17.8%*	6.8%*	1.26*	4.74*
Willie Blair ('90-'01, 1 WAR*)	6.4	106	16.4%*	7.2%*	1.32*	4.86*
Clyde Shoun ('35-'49, 8 WAR*)	6.4	107	19.3%*	7.4%*	1.24*	4.43*
Anthony Swarzak ('21)	3.3	73	17.8%	7.3%	1.20	4.42
Matt Andriese ('24)	2.6	74	21.8%	6.7%	1.36	4.65
Luis Cessa ('23)	2.1	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43