Casey Hintz — OGILVIE

Casey Hintz P Everett AquaSox

Age 22 RHP 6'0" / 161 lbs A+ peak 0.3 · 2028

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 38 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 100

ERA4.38

FIP4.38

K%22.6%

BB%9.0%

K-BB%13.5%

ROS IP38

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 38 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5560

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	0	8	40	9	6	1	0%	1.1	22.5%	15.0%	7.5%	2.5%	6.75	4.47	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	0	8	40	9	6	1	0%	1.1	22.5%	15.0%	7.5%	2.5%	6.75	4.47	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	0	8	40	9	6	1	0%	1.1	22.5%	15.0%	7.5%	2.5%	6.75	4.72	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	36	0	55	247	67	19	7	0%	1.5	20.9%	8.8%	12.0%	3.5%	4.25	4.40	—
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	36	0	55	247	67	19	7	0%	1.5	20.9%	8.8%	12.0%	3.5%	4.25	4.40	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A+ RAW	SEA	36	0	55	247	67	19	7	0%	1.5	27.1%	7.7%	19.4%	2.8%	4.25	3.34	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	SEA	53	0	56	236	55	20	7	0%	1.1	23.4%	8.6%	14.7%	3.0%	4.29	4.23	+0.2
2028	24	MLB MLE	SEA	55	0	57	242	58	20	7	0%	1.0	23.9%	8.4%	15.5%	2.9%	4.21	4.14	+0.3
2029	25	MLB MLE	SEA	55	0	58	245	59	20	7	0%	1.1	24.3%	8.3%	15.9%	2.9%	4.15	4.10	+0.3
2030	26	MLB MLE	SEA	55	0	58	245	60	20	7	0%	1.1	24.5%	8.3%	16.1%	2.9%	4.11	4.08	+0.3
2031	27	MLB MLE	SEA	54	0	57	241	59	20	7	0%	1.1	24.4%	8.4%	16.0%	3.0%	4.11	4.12	+0.3
2027	23	MLB CTX	SEA	27	0	28	118	28	10	4	0%	1.0	23.4%	8.6%	14.7%	3.0%	4.29	4.23	+0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	SEA	38	0	40	169	40	14	5	0%	1.1	23.9%	8.4%	15.5%	2.9%	4.21	4.14	+0.2
2029	25	MLB CTX	SEA	45	0	47	198	48	17	6	0%	1.0	24.3%	8.3%	15.9%	2.9%	4.15	4.10	+0.3
2030	26	MLB CTX	SEA	49	0	51	215	53	18	6	0%	1.0	24.5%	8.3%	16.1%	2.9%	4.11	4.08	+0.3
2031	27	MLB CTX	SEA	50	0	52	220	54	18	7	0%	1.0	24.4%	8.4%	16.0%	3.0%	4.11	4.12	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		207	0	217	916	222	77	27	0%	1.0	24.2%	8.4%	15.8%	3.0%	4.16	3.74	+2.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	205	71	25	0%	1.1	24.2%	8.4%	15.8%	3.0%	4.16	3.74	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		43	0	63	287	61	28	10	0%	1.5	21.1%	9.7%	11.4%	3.4%	4.57	4.41	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		137	0	200	911	192	88	31	0%	1.5	21.1%	9.7%	11.4%	3.4%	4.57	4.41	+1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Casey Hintz (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.38	22.6%	9.0%	3.0%	—	4.16	23.9%	15.4%	171	-0.22	—	—	—
Cody Palmquist R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	22	SU	4.31	21.9%	9.0%	3.5%	.278	6.02	14.7%	7.1%	62	+1.71	4.31	104	93
Heath Holder R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.94	367	92
Addison Russ R 2017 · 3.62 FIP	22	SU	3.62	22.2%	7.9%	2.5%	.324	3.09	25.6%	17.5%	121	-0.53	3.08	194	91
David Garner R 2015 · 3.81 FIP	22	SU	3.81	21.7%	10.0%	2.3%	.282	4.52	19.8%	5.2%	98	+0.71	3.81	154	91
Tyler Bray R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	23	SU	4.07	22.3%	9.1%	3.1%	.356	3.21	17.9%	7.6%	114	-0.86	2.82	152	90
Austin Smith R 2022 · 3.88 FIP	23	SU	3.88	22.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.274	5.15	16.3%	0.7%	52	+1.27	3.88	148	90
Corey Copping R 2016 · 4.13 FIP	22	SU	4.13	21.4%	8.7%	3.1%	.265	4.55	19.6%	6.7%	179	+0.42	3.38	214	90
Kenny Oakley R 2016 · 3.50 FIP	22	SU	3.50	23.8%	9.1%	2.3%	.348	3.87	17.3%	7.8%	115	+0.37	3.13	144	89
RJ Petit R 2022 · 4.43 FIP	22	SU	4.43	20.3%	8.4%	3.6%	.270	3.44	22.2%	12.7%	177	-0.99	3.08	231	89
Reilly Hovis R 2017 · 4.28 FIP	23	SU	4.28	21.1%	7.7%	3.6%	.250	4.36	19.8%	6.4%	50	+0.08	4.28	130	89
John Russell R 2018 · 3.98 FIP	22	SU	3.98	22.5%	8.5%	3.1%	.232	4.76	24.0%	11.2%	60	+0.78	3.94	158	88
Peyton Williams R 2021 · 3.69 FIP	23	SU	3.69	22.3%	10.3%	2.1%	.311	4.82	22.2%	10.2%	100	+1.13	3.69	123	88
Michael Gomez R 2019 · 3.32 FIP	22	SU	3.32	22.6%	9.2%	1.8%	.283	3.81	17.9%	8.3%	110	+0.49	3.32	286	88
Devon Roedahl R 2019 · 3.94 FIP	22	SU	3.94	19.7%	6.7%	3.0%	.305	4.64	16.5%	9.2%	100	+0.70	3.94	122	88
Collin Kober R 2017 · 3.39 FIP	22	SU	3.39	21.3%	7.5%	2.1%	.268	2.76	24.0%	17.9%	128	-0.63	2.38	294	88
Jonathan Brand R 2023 · 3.95 FIP	23	SU	3.95	22.7%	10.8%	2.5%	.236	4.79	19.7%	9.4%	160	+0.84	3.34	198	87
Fineas Del Bonta-Smith R 2021 · 3.52 FIP	24	SU	3.52	23.4%	8.2%	2.5%	.262	6.07	20.4%	11.3%	128	+2.55	3.52	207	87
Aaron Holiday R 2022 · 4.81 FIP	22	SU	4.81	21.9%	11.3%	3.9%	.310	5.23	19.7%	-3.3%	59	+0.42	4.73	126	87
Kevin Coulter R 2019 · 3.27 FIP	22	SU	3.27	21.0%	7.4%	1.8%	.287	4.51	16.1%	7.6%	92	+1.24	3.27	128	87
Jacob Rhame R 2015 · 3.98 FIP	22	SU	3.98	23.0%	9.9%	2.9%	.240	3.61	24.4%	17.8%	182	-0.37	2.78	251	87

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.6	54	23.9%	8.5%	1.15	4.20
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47