Erick Lara — OGILVIE

Erick LaraSS FCL Rays

Age 21 L/R 6'2" / 165 lbs ROK HR -6%H +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 60 proj PA

wRC+†51

AVG/OBP/SLG.188 / .260 / .264

PA60

HR0

K%33

BB%8

ISO77

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	17	ROK	DSL Marlins	—	154	128	39	8	2	2	23	37	2	5	1	305	418	445	864	141	411	24	15	387	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	FCL Rays	—	132	108	18	4	1	0	20	30	0	5	2	167	297	222	519	56	222	23	15	246	5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK	FCL Rays	—	106	82	15	3	2	0	21	35	0	2	2	183	350	268	618	85	300	33	20	290	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	154	135	27	5	1	1	16	45	2	5	1	200	294	274	568	74	293	29	10	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	—	132	116	15	3	1	0	12	44	0	5	2	129	211	172	383	43	182	33	9	176	5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	—	106	90	10	2	1	0	13	51	0	2	2	111	223	156	379	44	217	48	12	185	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	154	135	27	5	1	1	16	45	2	5	1	200	294	274	568	74	289	29	10	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Marlins	—	154	128	39	8	2	2	23	37	2	5	1	305	418	445	864	141	411	24	15	387	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	—	132	116	15	3	1	0	12	44	0	5	2	129	211	172	383	43	200	33	9	176	5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	FCL Rays	—	132	108	18	4	1	0	20	30	0	5	2	167	297	222	519	56	222	23	15	246	5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	—	106	90	10	2	1	0	13	51	0	2	2	111	223	156	379	44	238	48	12	185	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	FCL Rays	—	106	82	15	3	2	0	21	35	0	2	2	183	350	268	618	85	300	33	20	290	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	154	135	27	5	1	1	16	45	2	5	1	200	294	274	568	74	293	29	10	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	—	132	119	15	3	1	0	12	44	0	5	2	126	211	168	379	42	182	33	9	176	5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	—	106	92	10	2	1	0	13	51	0	2	2	109	223	152	375	43	217	48	12	185	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	18	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	—	132	119	15	3	1	0	12	44	0	5	2	126	211	168	379	42	182	33	9	176	5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	—	106	92	10	2	1	0	13	51	0	2	2	109	223	152	375	43	217	48	12	185	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	21	MLB MLE	TB	0%	216	195	38	7	2	2	18	72	1	4	1	190	262	267	529	77	286	33	8	243	51	-13	+0	+0	+2	+5	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	TB	34%	116	104	21	4	1	1	10	38	1	3	1	195	268	284	551	88	288	33	9	252	57	-6	+0	+0	+1	+3	-0.2
2028	22	MLB CTX	TB	34%	40	37	6	1	0	0	3	13	0	1	0	197	270	285	555	87	292	32	8	254	57	-2	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	40	37	6	1	0	0	3	13	0	1	0	162	225	189	414	27	250	32	8	254	38	-2	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	601	97	16	0	0	49	211	0	16	0	161	225	188	413	27	249	32	8	254	38	-33	+3	+0	+7	+14	-0.9
Career	—	MLE		—	568	500	82	16	4	2	56	198	3	16	6	164	252	224	476	60	260	35	10	224	38	-9	+0	+0	+2	+4	-0.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	572	94	18	5	2	64	227	3	18	7	164	252	224	475	59	261	35	10	224	38	-35	+1	+0	+7	+14	-1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Erick Lara (OGILVIE)	21	—	—	—	—	188/260/264	76	286	0	1	33%	8%	51	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Luis Mendez 2024 · A	21	38	38→40	47→50	43	182/254/259	77	275	6	10	34%	8%	47	-2.5	193/255/274	81	270	5	12	28%	7%	50	-2.3	187/247/263	77	253	5	13	27%	7%	43	-1.2
✕Jaden Rudd 2024 · A	21	39→36	37→30	52→50	48	179/290/250	70	276	4	14	32%	10%	61	-1.5	193/286/269	76	307	5	13	35%	9%	63	-1.4	155/260/202	47	253	3	16	35%	10%	36	-0.9
✕Deivis Nadal 2023 · A	21	38	36→40	48→55	37	178/244/244	65	288	3	14	37%	6%	40	-3.1	173/249/273	100	324	9	19	45%	8%	49	-2.4	138/226/243	104	269	10	25	48%	9%	32	-1.5
✕Jhon Diaz 2024 · A	21	37→26	40→45	49→50	39	181/241/278	97	288	6	11	38%	7%	46	-2.6	174/225/289	115	248	13	16	34%	6%	43	-2.8	154/204/269	115	207	15	17	34%	5%	28	-2.5
✕Dan Arcila 2011 · A	21	33	37→40	53→50	42	166/231/239	73	242	5	12	32%	7%	34	-3.5	196/250/324	128	265	13	6	30%	6%	61	-1.5	174/233/338	164	215	19	3	29%	6%	53	-0.8
✕Yohairo Cuevas 2024 · A	20	39→38	40	53→50	46	189/269/285	96	280	8	13	33%	9%	59	-1.6	194/280/279	85	302	5	15	34%	10%	62	-1.4	185/278/271	86	290	5	16	34%	10%	58	-1.1
✕Ismael Alcantara 2019 · A	20	36→30	38→45	50	43	177/250/254	77	257	5	13	32%	7%	45	-2.7	207/272/309	102	322	8	15	36%	7%	65	-1.2	191/253/307	116	283	12	16	35%	6%	55	-0.9
✕Andry Arias 2021 · A	21	38	39→40	51→40	42	186/255/269	83	272	6	8	32%	8%	50	-2.3	190/255/289	99	292	8	6	35%	7%	55	-2.0	163/234/264	101	246	9	3	35%	7%	39	-1.0
✕Cole Roederer 2021 · A	21	39→33	43→45	51→50	42	193/261/303	109	286	10	12	34%	8%	60	-1.6	207/272/319	112	304	11	12	33%	7%	68	-1.0	183/257/295	112	268	12	11	34%	8%	56	-1.1
✕Henrry Rosario 2014 · A	21	36	37→45	47→45	46	174/247/252	78	242	4	8	28%	8%	42	-2.9	195/249/297	102	250	8	7	24%	6%	53	-2.1	198/245/326	128	246	14	9	25%	5%	57	-0.6
✕Chris Roller 2018 · A	21	37	37→45	53→55	45	177/253/254	77	242	4	12	27%	8%	46	-2.6	204/272/316	112	294	8	11	31%	7%	67	-1.1	189/255/293	104	275	7	15	32%	6%	54	-1.0
✕Neyfy Castillo 2021 · A	20	39→33	37→45	54→55	39	187/245/260	73	279	3	11	32%	6%	43	-2.8	186/260/317	131	336	16	16	46%	8%	63	-1.3	173/250/304	131	303	16	19	45%	8%	53	-1.4
✕Shane Mardirosian 2017 · A	21	41→40	36→40	46→45	39	198/244/266	69	266	3	9	26%	4%	44	-2.8	203/257/283	80	293	6	8	31%	6%	53	-2.1	198/267/282	84	301	7	7	34%	7%	57	-0.6
✕Nelson Medina 2022 · A	21	38	38→45	53→50	51	181/272/260	79	252	4	15	28%	10%	55	-2.0	185/255/278	93	317	6	13	40%	8%	52	-2.2	140/198/215	76	278	6	16	49%	6%	14	-1.7
✕Sandy Acevedo 2013 · A	20	37	38→40	49→50	44	181/259/263	83	253	5	11	29%	8%	51	-2.3	186/256/284	98	256	7	9	28%	7%	54	-2.0	123/201/242	119	154	9	9	26%	8%	23	-1.1
✕Lexer Saduy 2024 · A	21	43	37→40	49→50	41	196/273/271	76	315	4	13	36%	8%	57	-1.8	206/273/295	89	296	7	13	31%	7%	63	-1.4	180/250/241	61	225	9	18	23%	6%	40	-0.7
✕Jefrey De Los Santos 2024 · A	21	37	39→40	47→45	43	176/259/267	91	286	6	7	38%	9%	51	-2.2	171/233/264	93	272	7	8	37%	7%	40	-3.0	145/202/235	90	226	7	8	37%	6%	20	-2.3
✕Rolando Gomez 2011 · A	22	41	40→45	51→50	38	198/245/294	96	295	6	10	34%	6%	51	-2.3	214/255/304	90	314	5	14	32%	5%	56	-1.9	221/260/308	88	316	5	16	30%	5%	57	-1.1
✕Michael Swinson 2011 · A	21	41	41→40	52→50	43	201/265/299	98	278	8	12	29%	7%	60	-1.6	201/265/274	73	267	4	10	24%	8%	54	-2.0	196/267/258	62	261	2	10	23%	9%	49	-1.1
✕Alexis Rivera 2015 · A	21	42	37→45	49→50	40	202/256/274	73	289	5	11	31%	6%	51	-2.3	219/266/330	111	298	11	9	29%	5%	67	-1.1	229/272/355	125	296	13	7	27%	5%	72	-0.3