Erick Lara — OGILVIE

Erick LaraSS FCL Rays

Age 20 L/R 6'2" / 165 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 2.2 · 2032

wRC+†65

AVG/OBP/SLG.202 / .281 / .309

PA91

HR2

K%30

BB%9

MLB%0%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

20↗25

PWR

28↗33

SPD

48↗53

EYE

58↗63

trajectory · 10 yrs

2.2peak

2033

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+2.2	$21M	+$20M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+2.2	$22M	+$21M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+2.1	$21M	+$20M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$4M	+1.9	$20M	+$16M
2036	Ext / FA-deal	$6M	+1.6	$17M	+$11M
2037	Ext / FA-deal	$7M	+1.4	$16M	+$9M
Totals		$19M		$116M	+$97M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	17	ROK	DSL Marlins	154	137	31	6	1	1	14	53	2	5	1	.226	.307	.307	.614	.080	.357	34	9	.276	69	-5	+1	+0	+2	+4	0.1
2024	18	ROK	FCL Rays	132	116	13	3	0	0	12	45	0	5	2	.112	.195	.138	.333	.026	.176	34	9	.169	-12	-17	+0	+0	+1	+4	-1.2
2025	19	ROK	FCL Rays	106	90	10	2	1	0	13	52	0	2	2	.111	.223	.156	.379	.044	.244	49	12	.176	-7	-13	-0	+0	+1	+3	-0.9
▸ 2026 Season
2026	20	MLB	TB	91	82	17	3	1	2	8	27	1	2	0	.207	.286	.341	.627	.134	.281	30	9	.271	65	-4	+0	+0	+1	+3	0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	21	MLB 11%	TB	178	157	34	6	1	4	17	50	2	4	1	.217	.301	.344	.645	.127	.284	28	10	.288	79	-4	+0	+0	+2	+5	0.3
2028	22	MLB 28%	TB	309	272	60	11	2	8	31	84	3	7	2	.221	.307	.364	.671	.143	.285	27	10	.299	87	-5	+1	+0	+3	+9	0.8
2029	23	MLB 48%	TB	399	351	78	15	2	10	41	105	4	9	2	.222	.311	.362	.672	.140	.286	26	10	.306	92	-4	+1	+0	+4	+11	1.3
2030	24	MLB 62%	TB	460	404	92	17	3	13	48	120	5	10	2	.228	.317	.381	.698	.153	.286	26	10	.310	96	-2	+1	+0	+5	+13	1.7
2031	25	MLB 80%	TB	495	434	99	18	3	14	53	128	5	10	2	.228	.319	.380	.699	.152	.287	26	11	.313	98	-1	+1	+0	+5	+14	2.0
2032	26	MLB 94%	TB	515	449	103	19	3	15	56	133	5	11	2	.229	.322	.385	.707	.156	.287	26	11	.315	99	-0	+1	+0	+6	+15	2.2
2033	27	MLB	TB	523	455	104	19	3	15	57	136	6	11	2	.229	.322	.382	.705	.154	.287	26	11	.315	99	-0	+1	+0	+6	+15	2.2
2034	28	MLB	TB	524	455	104	19	3	15	58	137	6	10	2	.229	.324	.382	.706	.154	.287	26	11	.314	99	-1	+1	-1	+6	+15	2.1
2035	29	MLB	TB	517	449	102	19	3	14	58	137	5	10	1	.227	.322	.376	.699	.149	.286	26	11	.312	97	-2	+2	-1	+6	+15	1.9
2036	30	MLB	TB	509	442	99	18	3	14	57	136	5	9	1	.224	.319	.373	.693	.149	.285	27	11	.309	95	-3	+1	-2	+5	+14	1.6
2037	31	MLB	TB	496	433	94	17	2	13	55	135	5	8	0	.217	.312	.356	.668	.139	.283	27	11	.305	92	-5	+2	-3	+5	+14	1.4
2038	32	MLB	TB	479	418	89	16	2	12	53	133	5	7	0	.213	.309	.347	.656	.134	.281	28	11	.300	88	-6	+1	-4	+5	+14	1.0
2039	33	MLB	TB	450	393	83	15	2	11	50	128	4	7	0	.211	.306	.344	.650	.132	.280	28	11	.295	84	-8	+1	-4	+5	+13	0.7
2040	34	MLB	TB	404	353	73	13	2	9	44	118	4	6	0	.207	.302	.331	.633	.125	.278	29	11	.289	79	-10	+1	-5	+4	+11	0.3
2041	35	MLB	TB	349	305	61	11	2	7	38	106	3	6	0	.200	.295	.318	.613	.118	.275	30	11	.281	73	-11	+1	-6	+4	+10	-0.1
2042	36	MLB	TB	291	255	50	9	1	6	31	91	3	5	0	.196	.291	.310	.600	.114	.272	31	11	.272	66	-11	+1	-6	+3	+8	-0.5
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			7381	6450	1396	256	40	183	794	2054	73	144	22	.216	.309	.354	.663	.137	.285	28	11	.299	87	-111	+20	-31	+79	+209	16.9
/ 162G	—			650	568	124	23	4	16	70	181	6	13	2	.218	.311	.357	.668	.139	.288	28	11	.299	87	-10	+2	-3	+7	+18	1.5

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	17	ROK	DSL Marlins	154	128	39	8	2	2	23	37	2	5	1	.305	.418	.445	.864	.141	.411	24	15	.387	154	+9	+1	—	—	+4	1.5
2024	18	ROK	FCL Rays	132	108	18	4	1	0	20	30	0	5	2	.167	.297	.222	.519	.056	.222	23	15	.246	46	-8	+0	—	—	+4	-0.4
2025	19	ROK	FCL Rays	106	82	15	3	2	0	21	35	0	2	2	.183	.350	.268	.618	.085	.300	33	20	.290	80	-2	-0	—	—	+3	0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Erick Lara (OGILVIE)	20	20→25	28→33	48→53	63	.202/.281/.309	.107	.281	2	2	30%	9%	65	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Carlos Rodriguez 2023 · A	20	38	40→45	47→45	45	.183/.271/.272	.089	.286	7	6	36%	10%	52	-1.6	.190/.265/.267	.077	.298	5	6	35%	9%	47	-1.9	.182/.268/.267	.085	.274	6	3	33%	10%	48	-0.6
✕Carlos Jimenez 2022 · A	19	39→41	42→50	53→55	44	.191/.270/.293	.102	.283	10	11	34%	8%	56	-1.3	.199/.283/.318	.119	.317	11	15	37%	9%	69	-0.4	.216/.296/.349	.133	.314	15	19	33%	9%	78	+0.1
✕Jaden Rudd 2023 · A	20	40→36	40→30	49→50	49	.191/.281/.282	.091	.264	6	11	28%	9%	59	-1.1	.179/.294/.247	.068	.289	3	14	35%	11%	57	-1.2	.155/.287/.208	.053	.265	2	16	36%	11%	43	-1.1
✕Angel Ortiz 2022 · A	19	42→40	41→50	46→40	44	.207/.262/.297	.091	.272	9	9	27%	7%	53	-1.5	.205/.256/.301	.096	.278	8	7	27%	6%	51	-1.7	.210/.263/.325	.115	.276	10	3	27%	6%	59	-0.6
✕Iverson Leonardo 2023 · A	21	37	44→50	49→50	40	.188/.259/.305	.117	.281	12	9	36%	7%	55	-1.4	.194/.278/.291	.097	.346	7	8	42%	9%	59	-1.1	.146/.273/.221	.075	.359	3	4	52%	12%	39	-0.5
●Bo Naylor 2019 · A	19	44→43	39→55	52→50	46	.211/.278/.300	.089	.298	6	9	30%	8%	60	-1.0	.194/.251/.313	.119	.273	11	7	31%	7%	53	-1.5	.216/.308/.399	.183	.269	22	12	28%	11%	97	+1.2
✕Anthony Seigler 2019 · A	20	45→39	38→45	48→55	49	.214/.283/.295	.081	.271	6	5	22%	8%	62	-0.9	.194/.271/.270	.076	.279	5	5	29%	9%	50	-1.7	.200/.299/.321	.122	.247	12	27	23%	12%	74	-0.1
✕Carter Jensen 2023 · A	20	38→47	43→50	46→50	46	.188/.269/.299	.110	.273	10	7	33%	10%	58	-1.2	.198/.288/.331	.133	.275	13	9	30%	11%	74	-0.1	.206/.294/.357	.151	.275	17	10	30%	11%	81	+0.4
✕Daniel Vellojin 2019 · A	19	40	39→45	47→45	48	.192/.270/.277	.084	.265	6	7	28%	9%	52	-1.6	.212/.301/.309	.097	.270	7	8	22%	10%	74	-0.1	.195/.299/.312	.117	.259	12	6	27%	12%	71	-0.1
✕Daury Arias 2022 · A	20	43→38	45→40	50→45	51	.216/.290/.337	.122	.261	13	9	22%	9%	76	+0.1	.189/.274/.285	.096	.258	9	8	28%	9%	56	-1.3	.161/.251/.238	.077	.233	7	8	31%	9%	32	-1.4
✕LeVon Washington 2012 · A	21	44	39→45	51→50	46	.205/.280/.288	.083	.305	6	13	32%	9%	59	-1.1	.234/.309/.335	.101	.341	7	12	30%	9%	82	+0.5	.246/.314/.364	.118	.341	8	12	28%	8%	89	+0.4
✕Robert Gonzalez 2021 · A	20	41	40→45	54→60	47	.189/.291/.289	.100	.303	7	8	36%	10%	66	-0.6	.201/.301/.282	.081	.273	6	17	26%	10%	68	-0.5	.180/.308/.228	.048	.225	5	30	19%	12%	56	-0.5
✕Canaan Smith-Njigba 2019 · A	20	45→47	41→45	46→55	51	.216/.301/.314	.097	.294	9	7	28%	10%	74	-0.1	.227/.294/.343	.116	.313	11	10	29%	8%	79	+0.3	.228/.299/.352	.124	.336	11	21	33%	9%	80	+0.2
✕Omar Martinez 2021 · A	20	43→38	39→45	48→40	47	.206/.280/.291	.085	.290	7	5	30%	9%	59	-1.1	.199/.285/.312	.113	.295	12	5	34%	10%	68	-0.5	.178/.269/.306	.128	.257	16	4	35%	10%	57	-0.7
✕Nelson Quiroz 2022 · A	20	45	37→40	47→40	49	.211/.278/.287	.076	.265	3	4	21%	8%	57	-1.2	.229/.290/.332	.103	.270	9	4	18%	7%	74	-0.1	.264/.310/.326	.062	.295	2	0	11%	6%	75	+0.0
✕Christian Cerda 2023 · A	20	40→38	39→45	50→40	50	.195/.279/.287	.092	.255	6	9	25%	9%	59	-1.1	.193/.287/.299	.106	.258	11	4	27%	11%	66	-0.6	.180/.275/.286	.106	.231	13	2	27%	11%	56	-0.9
✕Rudy van Heydoorn 2009 · A	20	40	43→45	43→50	47	.193/.290/.298	.105	.281	11	10	32%	10%	67	-0.5	.182/.264/.285	.103	.284	10	6	37%	8%	52	-1.6	.153/.236/.254	.101	.237	11	2	38%	9%	32	-0.9
✕Freizer Pedron 2007 · A	20	44	37→40	48→55	42	.208/.263/.284	.076	.278	4	12	26%	6%	50	-1.8	.229/.294/.302	.073	.305	3	16	24%	7%	68	-0.5	.262/.328/.337	.075	.341	2	29	22%	6%	87	+0.3
✕Cole Roederer 2021 · A	21	38→33	43→45	51→50	43	.192/.259/.300	.108	.274	11	13	33%	8%	53	-1.5	.205/.268/.319	.114	.301	12	12	34%	7%	62	-0.9	.179/.252/.298	.118	.265	14	11	36%	8%	49	-1.0
✕Ronarsy Ledesma 2012 · A	19	42	42→45	47→50	43	.205/.277/.309	.104	.271	9	8	27%	6%	64	-0.8	.224/.284/.326	.102	.290	5	11	24%	5%	70	-0.3	.226/.280/.337	.111	.291	6	11	23%	4%	69	-0.2

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)