Jefrey De Los Santos
SS Brooklyn Cyclones| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 20 | A/ROKNYM | 293 | .238/.368/.392 | 5 | 5 | 53 | — | .165/.272/.263 |
| 2024 | 21 | A+/ANYM | 376 | .193/.280/.325 | 6 | 4 | 17 | — | .145/.207/.241 |
| 2025 | 22 | AA/A+NYM | 239 | .204/.288/.332 | 4 | 8 | 25 | — | .158/.212/.253 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 24 | MLBNYM | 1 | .183/.240/.275 | 0 | 0 | 48 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ30% MLB | 25 | MLBNYM | 48 | .188/.245/.288 | 1 | 1 | 53 | -0.1 | |
| 2029PROJ44% MLB | 26 | MLBNYM | 95 | .191/.250/.296 | 2 | 2 | 57 | -0.2 |
Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 40
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | DSL Mets 2 | — | 157 | 137 | 34 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 18 | 40 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 248 | 344 | 372 | 716 | 124 | 337 | 25 | 11 | 325 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | FCL Mets | — | 150 | 132 | 27 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 41 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 205 | 291 | 333 | 624 | 129 | 267 | 27 | 10 | 281 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A | St. Lucie Mets | — | 267 | 218 | 48 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 43 | 73 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 220 | 357 | 372 | 729 | 151 | 305 | 27 | 16 | 333 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK | FCL Mets | — | 26 | 22 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 409 | 480 | 591 | 1.071 | 182 | 500 | 19 | 8 | 454 | 111 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ | Brooklyn Cyclones | — | 358 | 314 | 61 | 19 | 3 | 6 | 34 | 98 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 194 | 285 | 331 | 617 | 137 | 257 | 27 | 9 | 279 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A | St. Lucie Mets | — | 18 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 167 | 167 | 222 | 389 | 56 | 231 | 28 | 0 | 172 | -23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 44 | 41 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 244 | 279 | 317 | 596 | 73 | 385 | 34 | 5 | 263 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Brooklyn Cyclones | — | 195 | 170 | 33 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 21 | 58 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 194 | 290 | 335 | 625 | 141 | 266 | 30 | 11 | 282 | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Mets 2 | — | 157 | 142 | 21 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 49 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 148 | 229 | 218 | 448 | 70 | 212 | 31 | 8 | 198 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Mets | — | 150 | 138 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 61 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 123 | 182 | 196 | 378 | 72 | 201 | 41 | 6 | 178 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A MLE | St. Lucie Mets | — | 267 | 231 | 35 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 31 | 105 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 152 | 263 | 247 | 510 | 95 | 259 | 39 | 12 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK MLE | FCL Mets | — | 26 | 23 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 304 | 360 | 435 | 795 | 130 | 383 | 31 | 4 | 332 | 111 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ MLE | Brooklyn Cyclones | — | 358 | 327 | 47 | 14 | 3 | 4 | 21 | 130 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 144 | 209 | 242 | 451 | 98 | 207 | 36 | 6 | 196 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A MLE | St. Lucie Mets | — | 18 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 167 | 167 | 222 | 389 | 56 | 218 | 39 | 0 | 134 | -23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA MLE | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 44 | 42 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 238 | 256 | 310 | 565 | 71 | 387 | 41 | 2 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | Brooklyn Cyclones | — | 195 | 179 | 25 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 75 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 140 | 202 | 240 | 442 | 101 | 215 | 38 | 6 | 199 | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Mets 2 | — | 157 | 142 | 21 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 49 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 148 | 229 | 218 | 448 | 70 | 217 | 31 | 8 | 198 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL Mets 2 | — | 157 | 137 | 34 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 18 | 40 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 248 | 344 | 372 | 716 | 124 | 337 | 25 | 11 | 325 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Mets | — | 150 | 138 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 61 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 123 | 182 | 196 | 378 | 72 | 195 | 41 | 6 | 178 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK RAW | FCL Mets | — | 150 | 132 | 27 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 41 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 205 | 291 | 333 | 624 | 129 | 267 | 27 | 10 | 281 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 293 | 254 | 42 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 32 | 113 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 165 | 271 | 264 | 535 | 98 | 279 | 39 | 11 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 293 | 240 | 57 | 14 | 4 | 5 | 45 | 78 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 237 | 368 | 392 | 759 | 154 | 327 | 27 | 15 | 344 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 376 | 345 | 48 | 14 | 3 | 4 | 21 | 137 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 139 | 202 | 232 | 433 | 93 | 212 | 36 | 6 | 193 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 376 | 332 | 64 | 20 | 3 | 6 | 34 | 103 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 193 | 280 | 325 | 605 | 133 | 256 | 27 | 9 | 273 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 239 | 221 | 35 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 93 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 158 | 212 | 253 | 465 | 95 | 254 | 39 | 5 | 206 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 239 | 211 | 43 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 23 | 73 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 204 | 288 | 332 | 620 | 128 | 289 | 31 | 10 | 279 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Mets 2 | — | 157 | 141 | 21 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 49 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 149 | 229 | 220 | 449 | 71 | 212 | 31 | 8 | 198 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Mets | — | 150 | 139 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 61 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 122 | 182 | 194 | 377 | 72 | 201 | 41 | 6 | 178 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 293 | 254 | 42 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 32 | 113 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 165 | 271 | 264 | 535 | 98 | 270 | 39 | 11 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 376 | 346 | 48 | 14 | 3 | 4 | 21 | 137 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 139 | 202 | 231 | 433 | 92 | 208 | 36 | 6 | 193 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 239 | 222 | 35 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 93 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 158 | 212 | 252 | 464 | 95 | 247 | 39 | 5 | 206 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 376 | 346 | 48 | 14 | 3 | 4 | 21 | 137 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 139 | 202 | 231 | 433 | 92 | 208 | 36 | 6 | 193 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 239 | 222 | 35 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 93 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 158 | 212 | 252 | 464 | 95 | 247 | 39 | 5 | 206 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB MLE | NYM | 0% | 289 | 267 | 51 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 83 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 189 | 245 | 283 | 529 | 94 | 256 | 29 | 6 | 239 | 48 | -18 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +6 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB CTX | NYM | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 183 | 240 | 275 | 515 | 92 | 248 | 0 | 0 | 234 | 48 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 25 | MLB MLE | NYM | 30% | 157 | 144 | 28 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 45 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 193 | 251 | 296 | 547 | 103 | 258 | 29 | 6 | 247 | 53 | -9 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +3 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB MLE | NYM | 44% | 214 | 197 | 39 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 60 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 197 | 255 | 304 | 559 | 108 | 260 | 28 | 6 | 252 | 57 | -11 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +5 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB CTX | NYM | 30% | 48 | 45 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 188 | 245 | 288 | 533 | 100 | 250 | 29 | 6 | 241 | 53 | -3 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +1 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB CTX | NYM | 44% | 95 | 88 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 27 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 191 | 250 | 296 | 545 | 105 | 251 | 28 | 6 | 246 | 57 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +2 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 143 | 133 | 26 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 41 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 195 | 252 | 316 | 568 | 120 | 258 | 29 | 6 | 245 | 34 | -8 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +3 | -0.3 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 605 | 119 | 23 | 5 | 14 | 41 | 186 | 5 | 14 | 5 | 197 | 254 | 321 | 575 | 124 | 259 | 29 | 6 | 245 | 34 | -34 | +1 | +0 | +7 | +14 | -1.3 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1708 | 1554 | 252 | 51 | 16 | 21 | 118 | 593 | 21 | 37 | 18 | 162 | 231 | 256 | 487 | 94 | 243 | 35 | 7 | 219 | 34 | -27 | +1 | +0 | +5 | +11 | -1.1 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 591 | 95 | 19 | 6 | 8 | 45 | 226 | 8 | 14 | 7 | 161 | 230 | 254 | 484 | 93 | 240 | 35 | 7 | 219 | 34 | -36 | +1 | +0 | +7 | +14 | -1.4 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2025 A+Brooklyn Cyclones · 195 PAwOBA .275 → .199 (−75)K% 29.7% → 38.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.74% | ÷1.011 | ×1.310 | — | — | 38.55% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.26% | ÷1.022 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.012 | 6.10% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.03% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.012 | 0.80% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.75% | ÷1.021 | ×0.870 | ×0.958 | ×1.012 | 15.50% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.57% | ÷0.989 | ×0.780 | ×0.958 | ×1.012 | 2.73% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.57% | ÷1.051 | ×0.850 | ×0.958 | ×1.012 | 2.80% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.57% | ÷1.073 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 2.96% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 115, 1B 104, 2B 98, 3B 110, K 102, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.958.
Result: wOBA .275 → .199; ISO .141 → .108; BABIP .266 → .215. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AABinghamton Rumble Ponies · 44 PAwOBA .256 → .235 (−21)K% 34.1% → 41.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 34.09% | ÷1.015 | ×1.220 | — | — | 40.97% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.55% | ÷0.983 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.042 | 3.37% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.92% | ÷0.982 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.042 | 27.72% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.54% | ÷0.941 | ×0.860 | — | ×1.042 | 10.99% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.911 | ×0.950 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.990 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 96, 2B 88, 3B 82, K 103, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .256 → .235; ISO .073 → .066; BABIP .385 → .387. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Brooklyn Cyclones · 358 PAwOBA .275 → .196 (−78)K% 27.4% → 36.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.37% | ÷0.988 | ×1.310 | — | — | 36.31% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.50% | ÷0.973 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.027 | 6.01% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.68% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.027 | 1.33% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.28% | ÷1.032 | ×0.870 | ×0.964 | ×1.027 | 12.75% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.80% | ÷1.005 | ×0.780 | ×0.964 | ×1.027 | 6.76% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.39% | ÷0.929 | ×0.850 | ×0.964 | ×1.027 | 1.26% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.78% | ÷1.341 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.027 | 1.87% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 168, 1B 106, 2B 101, 3B 86, K 98, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.964.
Result: wOBA .275 → .196; ISO .137 → .096; BABIP .257 → .207. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ASt. Lucie Mets · 18 PAwOBA .167 → .134 (−33)K% 27.8% → 38.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.78% | ÷0.990 | ×1.360 | — | — | 38.16% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 0.00% | ÷1.030 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.38% | ÷0.957 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.015 | 15.00% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.69% | ÷0.954 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.015 | 6.79% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.826 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 65, 1B 91, 2B 91, 3B 130, K 98, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .167 → .134; ISO .056 → .042; BABIP .231 → .218. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ASt. Lucie Mets · 267 PAwOBA .326 → .237 (−90)K% 27.3% → 39.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.34% | ÷0.947 | ×1.360 | — | — | 39.27% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.10% | ÷0.977 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 11.71% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.50% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 1.20% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷1.054 | ×0.920 | ×0.975 | ×1.030 | 17.53% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.90% | ÷0.987 | ×0.830 | ×0.975 | ×1.030 | 5.82% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.76% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×0.975 | ×1.030 | 2.19% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.45% | ÷1.274 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 2.23% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 155, 1B 111, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 89, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.975.
Result: wOBA .326 → .237; ISO .151 → .099; BABIP .305 → .259. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKFCL Mets · 26 PAwOBA .459 → .332 (−127)K% 19.2% → 29.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.23% | ÷0.949 | ×1.440 | — | — | 29.19% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.69% | ÷1.004 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 4.73% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.85% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 2.76% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.41% | ÷1.046 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.995 | 22.93% |
| Doubles /BIP | 23.53% | ÷0.953 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 17.68% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.979 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.040 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 109, 2B 91, 3B 96, K 90, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .459 → .332; ISO .182 → .132; BABIP .500 → .383. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ROKFCL Mets · 150 PAwOBA .277 → .178 (−100)K% 27.3% → 40.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.33% | ÷0.964 | ×1.440 | — | — | 40.81% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.00% | ÷1.014 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 6.16% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.67% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 0.48% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.78% | ÷1.015 | ×0.820 | ×0.977 | ×1.008 | 15.72% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.40% | ÷1.103 | ×0.720 | ×0.977 | ×1.008 | 2.83% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.20% | ÷1.012 | ×0.720 | ×0.977 | ×1.008 | 1.54% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.30% | ÷1.078 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 2.40% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 103, 2B 121, 3B 102, K 93, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.977.
Result: wOBA .277 → .178; ISO .129 → .078; BABIP .267 → .201. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 DSLDSL Mets 2 · 157 PAwOBA .317 → .198 (−119)K% 25.5% → 31.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.48% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 31.08% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.46% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 8.09% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.27% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 0.90% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.80% | ÷1.000 | ×0.680 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 17.45% |
| Doubles /BIP | 1.03% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 0.59% |
| Triples /BIP | 5.15% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×0.950 | ×1.008 | 2.96% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.06% | ÷1.000 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 0.98% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .317 → .198; ISO .124 → .065; BABIP .337 → .212. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).