Tanner Shears prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Tanner Shears P Wisconsin Timber Rattlers

Age 27 RHP 6'3" / 205 lbs A+

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 29 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.85

FIP4.85

K%24.1%

BB%14.1%

K-BB%10.0%

ROS IP30

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 29 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†6060

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	50	223	77	39	3	0%	1.2	26.1%	20.3%	5.8%	1.6%	1.45	4.36	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	50	223	77	39	3	0%	1.2	26.1%	20.3%	5.8%	1.6%	1.45	4.36	—
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	0	50	223	77	39	3	0%	1.2	34.5%	17.5%	17.0%	1.3%	1.45	3.14	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	0	7	43	10	14	0	0%	1.0	23.3%	32.6%	-9.3%	0.0%	15.43	5.26	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	7	0	7	43	10	14	0	0%	1.0	23.3%	32.6%	-9.3%	0.0%	15.43	5.26	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	7	0	7	43	10	14	0	0%	1.0	23.3%	32.6%	-9.3%	0.0%	15.43	6.24	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	27	MLB	MIL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	24.1%	14.1%	10.0%	3.0%	4.85	4.85	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	MIL	27	0	29	121	29	17	4	0%	1.1	23.9%	13.7%	10.2%	3.1%	4.85	4.88	-0.1
2027	28	MLB CTX	MIL	10	0	11	46	11	6	1	0%	1.1	23.9%	13.7%	10.2%	3.1%	4.85	4.88	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		10	0	11	44	11	6	1	0%	1.1	23.9%	13.7%	10.2%	3.1%	4.85	4.50	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	209	114	19	0%	1.1	23.9%	13.7%	10.2%	3.1%	4.85	4.50	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		48	0	57	266	68	59	4	0%	1.2	25.7%	22.3%	3.4%	1.4%	3.18	4.51	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		169	0	200	939	241	209	13	0%	1.2	25.7%	22.3%	3.4%	1.4%	3.18	4.51	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tanner Shears (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.85	24.1%	14.1%	3.0%	—	4.88	23.9%	10.2%	29	+0.03	—	—	—
Beck Wheeler R 2016 · 4.42 FIP	27	SU	4.42	24.9%	14.5%	2.9%	.360	5.40	15.3%	3.1%	58	+0.98	3.46	173	87
Jacob Bosiokovic R 2021 · 3.93 FIP	27	SU	3.93	26.4%	14.3%	2.3%	.274	4.80	21.7%	10.2%	69	+0.87	3.84	181	85
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2011 · 3.85 FIP	27	SU	3.85	24.7%	10.8%	2.7%	.315	3.90	25.2%	16.5%	70	+0.05	3.34	335	85
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.18	22.3%	9.0%	119	-0.38	2.12	165	84
Logan VanWey R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	23.9%	14.0%	2.7%	.301	3.74	25.9%	15.2%	147	-0.60	2.97	194	84
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	84
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	84
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.23	26.7%	16.4%	76	-0.81	2.28	121	83
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	83
Grant Balfour R 2004 · 3.79 FIP	26	SU	3.79	24.4%	11.6%	2.3%	.292	4.01	24.8%	8.3%	25	+0.22	2.04	533	83
Scott Dohmann R 2005 · 4.93 FIP	27	SU	4.93	24.5%	12.6%	4.2%	.321	4.69	18.9%	7.5%	96	-0.24	4.28	173	83
Michael Flynn R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	26	SU	4.31	26.5%	11.2%	3.7%	.299	4.36	21.4%	10.8%	92	+0.05	3.89	168	82
Jason Bulger R 2008 · 4.60 FIP	29	SU	4.60	27.4%	12.3%	4.1%	.293	3.94	25.1%	13.3%	90	-0.66	3.78	106	82
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	81
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.29	16.7%	9.8%	248	+0.82	4.47	303	81
Brandon Johnson R 2023 · 4.94 FIP	24	SU	4.94	22.4%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	4.47	22.1%	12.1%	189	-0.47	3.35	250	81
Michael Ynoa R 2019 · 4.68 FIP	27	SU	4.68	23.1%	13.8%	3.3%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	3.30	142	81
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	81
Jake Haberer R 2022 · 5.24 FIP	27	SU	5.24	24.3%	16.0%	4.0%	.324	5.08	16.4%	0.9%	62	-0.16	3.46	183	81
Grant Sides R 2016 · 3.83 FIP	27	SU	3.83	22.4%	11.9%	2.0%	.247	3.31	21.7%	11.9%	47	-0.52	3.31	159	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	29	24.0%	13.9%	1.17	4.85
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Tim Byrdak ('13)	1.7	42	21.4%	13.3%	1.22	4.35
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68