Miguel Toscano

P FCL Rays

Age 21 RHP 6'3" / 170 lbs ROK peak 0.8 · 2030

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	18	ROKDSL Tampa Bay	12	11	40	3.15	2.83	15.8%	5.8%	—	K 10.7% · BB 7.3% · FIP 3.58
2025	19	ROKTB	11	7	40	3.83	3.78	19.0%	15.2%	—	K 12.9% · BB 19.0% · FIP 4.93
2026	20	MIX2 levels	16	5	62	5.69	3.55	17.4%	7.0%	—	K 12.1% · BB 8.7% · FIP 4.58
2027PROJ	21	MLBTB	7	7	42	6.00	6.00	11.3%	15.0%	-0.5
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBTB	5	5	29	5.67	5.56	14.4%	13.8%	-0.2
2029PROJ73% MLB	23	MLBTB	7	7	44	5.40	5.29	16.3%	13.0%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff30Control20Command20

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 98%

CompsLuis Martinez-Gomez (age 21) · Juan Gomez (age 20) · Luis Mateo (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 147139vR 131

ERA6.00

FIP6.00

K%11.3%

BB%15.0%

K-BB%-3.6%

Proj IP42

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 42 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL2020

CMD2020

K†3045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rays	12	10	42	180	28	15	5	83%	3.5	10.6%	10.4%	0.2%	4.1%	4.97	5.80	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Rays	12	10	42	180	28	15	5	83%	3.5	15.6%	8.3%	7.2%	2.8%	4.97	4.40	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	12	11	40	171	27	10	1	92%	3.3	10.7%	7.3%	3.4%	0.8%	3.15	3.58	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	12	11	40	171	27	10	1	92%	3.3	10.7%	7.3%	3.4%	0.8%	3.15	3.58	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Tampa Bay	12	11	40	171	27	10	1	92%	3.3	15.8%	5.8%	9.9%	0.6%	3.15	2.83	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	11	7	40	184	35	28	1	64%	3.6	12.9%	19.0%	-6.1%	0.9%	3.83	4.93	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	11	7	40	184	35	28	1	64%	3.6	12.9%	19.0%	-6.1%	0.9%	3.83	4.93	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	FCL Rays	11	7	40	184	35	28	1	64%	3.6	19.0%	15.2%	3.8%	0.5%	3.83	3.78	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	5	62	270	47	19	5	31%	3.9	12.1%	8.7%	3.4%	2.6%	5.69	4.58	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	5	62	270	47	19	5	31%	3.9	12.1%	8.7%	3.4%	2.6%	5.69	4.58	—
2026	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	5	62	270	47	19	5	31%	3.9	17.4%	7.0%	10.4%	1.9%	5.69	3.55	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	TB	7	7	42	177	20	27	5	100%	6.0	11.3%	15.0%	-3.6%	2.9%	6.00	6.00	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	TB	9	9	58	246	35	34	7	100%	6.5	14.4%	13.8%	0.7%	2.8%	5.67	5.56	-0.4
2029	23	MLB MLE	TB	10	10	60	255	42	33	7	100%	6.0	16.3%	13.0%	3.3%	2.8%	5.40	5.29	-0.3
2030	24	MLB MLE	TB	10	10	62	262	46	33	7	100%	6.2	17.5%	12.6%	4.9%	2.8%	5.22	5.13	-0.2
2031	25	MLB MLE	TB	10	10	63	265	48	33	7	100%	6.3	18.1%	12.4%	5.7%	2.8%	5.11	5.05	-0.1
2032	26	MLB MLE	TB	10	10	63	265	48	33	7	100%	6.3	18.3%	12.4%	5.9%	2.8%	5.06	5.02	-0.1
2033	27	MLB MLE	TB	10	10	62	261	48	33	7	100%	6.2	18.3%	12.4%	5.8%	2.8%	5.06	5.06	-0.1
2028	22	MLB CTX	TB	5	5	29	122	18	17	3	100%	5.8	14.4%	13.8%	0.7%	2.8%	5.67	5.56	-0.2
2029	23	MLB CTX	TB	7	7	44	186	30	24	5	100%	6.3	16.3%	13.0%	3.3%	2.8%	5.40	5.29	-0.2
2030	24	MLB CTX	TB	8	8	51	215	38	27	6	100%	6.4	17.5%	12.6%	4.9%	2.8%	5.22	5.13	-0.1
2031	25	MLB CTX	TB	9	9	55	232	42	29	6	100%	6.1	18.1%	12.4%	5.7%	2.8%	5.11	5.05	-0.1
2032	26	MLB CTX	TB	9	9	57	241	44	30	7	100%	6.3	18.3%	12.4%	5.9%	2.8%	5.06	5.02	-0.1
2033	27	MLB CTX	TB	9	9	57	241	44	30	7	100%	6.3	18.3%	12.4%	5.8%	2.8%	5.06	5.06	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		47	47	294	1243	217	157	35	100%	6.3	17.4%	12.7%	4.8%	2.8%	5.21	4.77	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		32	32	200	844	147	107	24	100%	6.2	17.4%	12.7%	4.8%	2.8%	5.21	4.77	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		51	33	183	805	94	90	18	65%	3.6	11.7%	11.1%	0.5%	2.2%	4.57	4.72	-1.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		56	36	200	878	102	98	19	65%	3.6	11.7%	11.1%	0.5%	2.2%	4.57	4.72	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Miguel Toscano (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.00	11.3%	15.0%	2.9%	—	5.32	16.1%	3.0%	181	-0.68	—	—	—
Luis Martinez-Gomez R 2024 · 5.22 FIP	21	SP-	5.22	13.9%	15.4%	2.5%	.237	4.69	20.8%	6.1%	105	-0.53	3.76	133	87
Juan Gomez R 2017 · 5.39 FIP	20	SP-	5.39	10.9%	12.6%	2.9%	.345	3.58	11.2%	-0.1%	61	-1.81	3.58	113	87
Luis Mateo R 2015 · 5.17 FIP	22	SP-	5.17	11.4%	14.7%	2.1%	.315	5.67	15.0%	-1.3%	55	+0.50	4.52	112	86
Will Childers R 2023 · 5.41 FIP	22	SP-	5.41	11.8%	12.1%	3.2%	.305	4.43	19.5%	8.9%	150	-0.98	3.60	209	84
Danny Flatt R 2024 · 6.12 FIP	20	SP-	6.12	14.5%	15.7%	4.1%	.304	5.81	13.0%	-1.9%	76	-0.31	5.37	122	84
Trey Riley R 2019 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP-	5.78	10.6%	19.0%	2.1%	.344	5.78	17.4%	5.2%	74	-0.00	4.35	227	83
Nolberto Henriquez R 2021 · 4.99 FIP	21	SP-	4.99	16.0%	13.4%	2.8%	.305	5.60	11.3%	-3.1%	52	+0.61	4.99	108	83
Kevin Gowdy R 2019 · 5.31 FIP	21	SP-	5.31	11.1%	17.0%	1.8%	.321	5.50	16.3%	6.0%	130	+0.19	3.11	333	83
Mason McGwire R 2024 · 6.46 FIP	20	SP-	6.46	11.7%	21.2%	3.0%	.298	4.11	21.4%	10.7%	79	-2.35	4.11	155	81
Kyle Larsen R 2024 · 5.54 FIP	21	SP-	5.54	15.8%	17.9%	2.8%	.274	4.95	19.9%	6.2%	83	-0.59	4.83	143	81
Ramon Santos R 2016 · 5.00 FIP	21	SP-	5.00	12.7%	10.6%	3.0%	.323	4.18	15.6%	5.5%	199	-0.82	3.74	355	81
Seth McClung R 2003 · 5.63 FIP	22	SW	5.63	15.0%	14.4%	3.6%	.241	5.29	15.3%	2.8%	212	-0.34	2.52	430	80
Jol Concepcion R 2021 · 6.54 FIP	22	SW	6.54	12.2%	20.0%	3.5%	.272	4.60	23.9%	3.9%	50	-1.94	4.60	154	80
Orlando Gonzalez R 2024 · 6.34 FIP	21	SP-	6.34	13.8%	18.8%	3.7%	.155	4.18	18.9%	4.9%	71	-2.16	3.83	114	80
Jhon Vergara R 2019 · 5.75 FIP	19	SW	5.75	11.1%	13.1%	3.5%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	106	80
Gillian Wernet R 2018 · 5.46 FIP	19	SP-	5.46	11.2%	16.6%	2.2%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	107	80
Moises Ruiz R 2019 · 5.62 FIP	20	SP-	5.62	8.7%	12.8%	3.0%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	4.57	104	80
Adrian Acosta R 2024 · 6.02 FIP	19	SP-	6.02	7.9%	21.7%	1.5%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	120	79
Jacob Cravey R 2024 · 5.15 FIP	22	SP-	5.15	14.4%	18.0%	1.8%	.333	5.84	14.7%	1.0%	124	+0.69	4.97	208	79
Jheyson Caraballo R 2017 · 5.25 FIP	21	SW	5.25	11.9%	10.6%	3.3%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	101	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.1	59	16.6%	13.0%	1.09	5.32
Mike Mohler ('01)	2.1	60	15.0%	12.4%	0.97	4.99
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
C.J. Nitkowski ('05)	2.4	68	15.8%	11.9%	1.07	5.37
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*