Cristobal Abreu — OGILVIE

Cristobal Abreu P Augusta GreenJackets

Age 20 RHP 6'1" / 165 lbs A peak 0.1 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 16 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.57

FIP4.57

K%22.4%

BB%10.6%

K-BB%11.8%

ROS IP16

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 16 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Braves	11	2	27	126	20	14	0	18%	2.5	10.8%	13.9%	-3.1%	0.0%	5.60	3.95	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Braves	11	2	27	126	20	14	0	18%	2.5	10.8%	13.9%	-3.1%	0.0%	5.60	3.95	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Braves	11	2	27	126	20	14	0	18%	2.5	15.9%	11.1%	4.8%	0.0%	5.60	3.17	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	FCL Braves	3	1	8	46	3	6	2	33%	2.8	6.5%	13.0%	-6.5%	4.3%	11.88	6.59	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	FCL Braves	3	1	8	46	3	6	2	33%	2.8	6.5%	13.0%	-6.5%	4.3%	11.88	6.59	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	FCL Braves	3	1	8	46	3	6	2	33%	2.8	6.5%	13.0%	-6.5%	4.3%	11.88	7.66	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	29	0	32	166	25	48	2	0%	1.1	10.6%	34.5%	-23.9%	1.7%	3.06	7.50	—
YTD	20	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	29	0	32	166	25	48	2	0%	1.1	10.6%	34.5%	-23.9%	1.7%	3.06	7.50	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	ROK RAW	ATL	3	0	2	12	3	3	0	0%	0.8	25.0%	25.0%	0.0%	0.0%	3.86	4.16	—
2026	20	A RAW	ATL	26	0	30	154	22	45	2	0%	1.2	14.3%	29.2%	-14.9%	1.3%	3.00	6.31	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	ATL	32	0	33	141	32	14	4	0%	1.0	22.9%	9.9%	13.0%	2.9%	4.46	4.41	+0.1
2027	21	MLB CTX	ATL	15	0	16	68	15	7	2	0%	1.1	22.9%	9.9%	13.0%	2.9%	4.46	4.41	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		16	0	16	69	16	7	2	0%	1.0	22.9%	9.9%	13.0%	2.9%	4.46	4.03	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	195	86	24	0%	1.1	22.9%	9.9%	13.0%	2.9%	4.46	4.03	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		43	3	68	338	34	81	5	7%	1.6	10.1%	23.9%	-13.8%	1.4%	5.16	6.05	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		126	9	200	994	100	237	14	7%	1.6	10.1%	23.9%	-13.8%	1.4%	5.16	6.05	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cristobal Abreu (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.57	22.4%	10.6%	3.0%	—	4.41	22.9%	13.0%	33	-0.16	—	—	—
Caleb Freeman R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	21	SU	3.98	24.6%	12.9%	2.4%	.267	5.15	21.7%	8.1%	58	+1.17	3.98	225	88
Blake Workman R 2018 · 4.00 FIP	20	SU	4.00	18.9%	9.5%	2.4%	.307	3.98	23.8%	19.5%	105	-0.02	3.09	213	88
Sandy Lugo R 2015 · 3.86 FIP	21	SU	3.86	20.7%	9.5%	2.4%	.352	3.98	23.6%	12.5%	119	+0.12	3.48	146	88
Anthony Hoopii-Tuionetoa R 2021 · 4.14 FIP	20	SU	4.14	25.1%	13.3%	2.7%	.327	3.29	23.8%	13.4%	81	-0.85	3.21	104	87
Max Gieg R 2022 · 5.10 FIP	21	SU	5.10	21.1%	11.8%	4.2%	.317	4.65	20.4%	2.3%	92	-0.45	3.98	149	87
Danny Dopico R 2015 · 3.87 FIP	21	SU	3.87	25.4%	10.8%	2.8%	.333	3.90	22.8%	8.1%	173	+0.03	3.00	318	87
Mason Fox R 2018 · 3.59 FIP	21	SU	3.59	21.9%	11.5%	1.6%	.260	6.72	21.3%	4.8%	30	+3.13	3.59	112	87
Enmanuel Marcano R 2019 · 4.32 FIP	20	SU	4.32	21.1%	8.4%	3.5%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.84	138	86
Justin Meis R 2021 · 4.07 FIP	21	SU	4.07	25.6%	13.6%	2.6%	.300	5.14	18.2%	5.5%	261	+1.07	3.68	408	85
Chris Gau R 2018 · 4.76 FIP	21	SU	4.76	20.0%	8.6%	4.1%	.290	3.19	29.5%	23.5%	37	-1.57	2.96	211	85
Luis Alvarado R 2018 · 5.24 FIP	21	SU	5.24	20.2%	12.4%	4.2%	.276	5.16	18.7%	4.4%	140	-0.08	4.89	162	85
Cody Palmquist R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	22	SU	4.31	21.9%	9.0%	3.5%	.278	6.02	14.7%	7.1%	62	+1.71	4.31	104	85
Osiris German R 2018 · 4.26 FIP	19	SU	4.26	20.6%	8.7%	3.3%	.346	3.15	26.3%	15.5%	59	-1.11	3.11	187	85
Pedro Da Costa Lemos R 2023 · 3.57 FIP	20	SU	3.57	23.5%	13.2%	1.4%	.286	4.64	18.0%	7.8%	180	+1.07	3.57	204	85
Heath Holder R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.94	367	85
Peyton Williams R 2021 · 3.69 FIP	23	SU	3.69	22.3%	10.3%	2.1%	.311	4.82	22.2%	10.2%	100	+1.13	3.69	123	84
Ty Tice R 2017 · 4.29 FIP	21	SU	4.29	22.2%	12.9%	2.6%	.271	3.53	19.4%	8.3%	108	-0.76	3.24	288	84
Victor Castaneda R 2019 · 3.95 FIP	20	SU	3.95	21.1%	8.9%	2.7%	.348	4.99	20.1%	9.2%	230	+1.04	2.90	377	84
Kenny Oakley R 2016 · 3.50 FIP	22	SU	3.50	23.8%	9.1%	2.3%	.348	3.87	17.3%	7.8%	115	+0.37	3.13	144	84
Felix Castro R 2023 · 3.52 FIP	19	SU	3.52	24.0%	12.2%	1.6%	.295	4.94	14.9%	-1.8%	97	+1.42	3.52	144	84