Jesus Alexander — OGILVIE

Jesus AlexanderC ACL Giants

Age 20 L/R 6'1" / 214 lbs ROK HR -8%H -3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 105 proj PA

wRC+†64

AVG/OBP/SLG.218 / .275 / .315

PA105

HR1

K%26

BB%7

ISO98

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 53 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT53

scouting grade only

POWER40

scouting grade only

EYE49

scouting grade only

SPEED49

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.5	$8M	+$7M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.5	$7M	+$7M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.4	$6M	+$6M
2035	Arb-1	$2M	+1.2	$5M	+$4M
2036	Arb-2	$3M	+1.0	$4M	+$3M
2037	Arb-3	$3M	+0.7	$1M	+$0.3M
Totals		$11M		$31M	+$26M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	17	ROK	DSL Giants Orange	—	85	79	11	3	0	1	4	26	2	0	0	139	200	215	415	76	192	31	5	177	-6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK	DSL Giants Orange	—	85	76	13	4	0	1	7	18	2	0	0	171	259	263	522	92	211	21	8	245	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	DSL Giants Black	—	197	183	48	10	2	3	12	42	0	1	0	262	308	388	696	126	321	21	6	304	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	DSL Giants Black	—	197	176	67	17	3	5	19	28	0	1	0	381	441	597	1.038	216	428	14	10	448	201	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK	ACL Giants	—	125	116	20	4	0	0	8	33	0	1	0	172	226	207	433	34	238	26	6	197	9	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK	ACL Giants	—	125	109	27	5	0	0	15	25	0	1	0	248	339	294	632	46	318	20	12	294	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	20	MLB	SF	—	105	96	21	4	1	1	7	27	1	1	0	219	279	312	591	94	289	26	7	268	64	-4	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	21	MLB	SF	34%	191	174	39	7	1	3	13	48	2	3	1	224	286	328	613	103	290	25	7	279	71	-6	+0	+0	+3	+5	0.3
2028	22	MLB	SF	48%	319	291	67	13	2	6	22	79	3	5	2	230	291	351	642	120	291	25	7	285	77	-8	+0	+0	+6	+9	0.7
2029	23	MLB	SF	54%	406	370	85	16	2	8	29	100	4	7	2	230	293	349	641	119	292	25	7	290	80	-9	+1	+0	+7	+12	1.0
2030	24	MLB	SF	55%	465	424	99	19	3	9	34	113	4	8	3	233	297	356	653	123	293	24	7	292	82	-10	+0	+0	+8	+13	1.3
2031	25	MLB	SF	56%	498	454	105	20	3	10	36	121	5	9	3	231	295	355	650	123	293	24	7	293	82	-10	+1	+0	+9	+14	1.4
2032	26	MLB	SF	56%	517	469	110	21	3	11	38	126	5	9	3	235	299	362	661	128	293	24	7	293	83	-10	+1	+0	+9	+15	1.5
2033	27	MLB	SF	55%	520	471	110	21	3	11	39	127	5	10	3	234	299	361	660	127	292	24	8	293	83	-10	+1	+0	+9	+15	1.5
2034	28	MLB	SF	55%	520	471	110	21	3	11	39	128	5	9	3	234	299	361	660	127	292	25	8	292	82	-11	+1	-1	+9	+15	1.4
2035	29	MLB	SF	53%	519	470	108	20	3	10	39	128	5	9	3	230	296	349	645	119	291	25	8	290	80	-12	+1	-1	+9	+15	1.2
2036	30	MLB	SF	57%	510	461	106	20	3	10	39	127	5	9	3	230	297	351	648	121	290	25	8	288	78	-13	+1	-2	+9	+14	1.0
2037	31	MLB	SF	60%	482	439	99	18	3	9	36	122	4	8	2	226	290	342	632	116	288	25	7	283	75	-14	+1	-3	+9	+14	0.7
2027	21	MLB	SF	34%	66	60	12	2	0	1	5	17	1	1	0	200	273	283	556	83	285	26	8	268	63	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.1
2028	22	MLB	SF	48%	155	142	32	6	1	3	11	38	1	3	1	225	286	345	631	120	286	25	7	274	68	-6	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.2
2029	23	MLB	SF	54%	220	200	45	9	1	4	16	54	2	4	1	225	289	340	629	115	287	25	7	278	71	-7	+0	+0	+4	+6	0.3
2030	24	MLB	SF	55%	258	235	54	10	2	5	19	63	2	5	1	230	293	353	646	123	288	24	7	281	73	-8	+1	+0	+5	+7	0.5
2031	25	MLB	SF	56%	279	254	58	11	2	5	20	68	3	5	2	228	292	346	639	118	288	24	7	281	74	-8	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.5
2032	26	MLB	SF	56%	291	265	61	11	2	6	21	71	3	5	2	230	294	355	649	125	287	24	7	282	74	-9	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.5
2033	27	MLB	SF	55%	288	262	60	11	2	6	21	70	3	5	2	229	294	355	649	126	287	24	7	282	74	-9	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.5
2034	28	MLB	SF	55%	285	259	60	11	2	6	21	70	3	5	2	232	297	359	656	127	287	25	7	281	73	-9	+0	-0	+5	+8	0.4
2035	29	MLB	SF	53%	277	252	57	11	2	5	21	69	2	5	2	226	291	345	636	119	286	25	8	279	72	-9	+0	-1	+5	+8	0.3
2036	30	MLB	SF	57%	291	264	59	11	2	5	22	73	3	5	2	223	291	337	628	114	285	25	8	276	70	-10	+0	-1	+5	+8	0.2
2037	31	MLB	SF	60%	287	261	58	11	2	5	22	73	2	5	1	222	288	337	625	115	283	25	8	272	67	-11	+1	-2	+5	+8	0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	2697	2454	556	104	18	51	199	666	25	48	16	227	291	346	637	119	289	25	7	279	71	-87	+3	-4	+48	+76	3.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	591	133	25	4	12	48	161	6	12	4	225	289	342	631	117	288	25	7	279	71	-21	+1	-1	+12	+18	0.9
Career	—			—	5459	4968	1138	217	32	103	395	1347	50	89	28	229	292	348	640	119	292	25	7	286	77	-141	+7	-7	+97	+155	11.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	592	136	26	4	12	47	160	6	11	3	230	293	348	641	118	292	25	7	286	77	-17	+1	-1	+12	+18	1.4

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	17	ROK	DSL Giants Orange	—	85	76	13	4	0	1	7	18	2	0	171	259	263	522	92	211	21	8	245	46	-5	+0	—	—	+2	-0.3
2024	18	ROK	DSL Giants Black	—	197	176	67	17	3	5	19	28	0	1	381	441	597	1.038	216	428	14	10	448	201	+23	+0	—	—	+6	2.9
2025	19	ROK	ACL Giants	—	125	109	27	5	0	0	15	25	0	1	248	339	294	632	46	318	20	12	294	83	-2	+0	—	—	+4	0.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Tucker Barnhartlast yr '24 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,088 PA	11	3,088	53	8	241	318	351	+55	+57	16.6	16.1
	/162	664	11	2	241	318	351	+11.9	+12.3	3.6	pk7: 16
#2John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	11	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
#2John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	/162	664	22	1	234	301	398	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#3Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#4Adeiny Hechavarríalast yr '20 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,288 PA	9	3,288	37	35	253	291	351	+32	+46	8.6	8.9
	/162	664	7	7	253	291	351	+6.5	+9.3	1.7	pk7: 9
#5Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	7	2,801	55	49	231	291	352	+50	+28	6.7	5.9
	/162	664	13	12	231	291	352	+11.9	+6.6	1.6	pk7: 5
#6Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	9	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
	/162	664	10	9	246	289	354	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jesus Alexander (OGILVIE)	20	48→53	35→40	44→49	49	218/275/315	97	289	1	1	26%	7%	64	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Cam Maron 2011 · A	20	47→57	40	50→40	47	225/290/318	93	285	7	6	23%	8%	70	-0.3	245/313/328	83	314	6	4	22%	8%	82	+0.5	244/317/320	76	314	4	2	22%	9%	78	+0.1
✕Hoy Park 2016 · A	20	40→49	41→45	47→55	46	196/269/296	99	264	8	11	28%	8%	56	-1.3	205/280/294	89	283	5	16	27%	8%	59	-1.1	227/314/325	98	300	8	17	25%	10%	79	+0.2
✕Canaan Smith-Njigba 2019 · A	20	45→49	41→45	46→55	51	216/301/314	97	294	9	7	28%	10%	74	-0.1	230/299/349	119	326	11	11	30%	9%	82	+0.5	228/302/349	121	326	10	15	31%	9%	80	+0.2
✕Rio Ruiz 2014 · A	20	44→51	44→50	50→40	45	216/272/344	128	281	10	8	26%	7%	69	-0.4	233/298/343	110	302	8	4	24%	9%	80	+0.4	236/304/339	103	303	8	2	23%	9%	79	+0.2
✕Marcus Lemon 2008 · A	20	48→53	37→40	46→45	46	226/292/310	84	301	3	10	24%	7%	69	-0.4	240/291/327	87	298	5	8	20%	6%	72	-0.2	233/281/325	92	296	4	6	22%	6%	63	-0.4
●Jorbit Vivas 2021 · A	20	46→56	37→45	49→50	46	217/288/299	82	276	3	11	21%	7%	66	-0.6	248/321/370	122	279	11	7	15%	7%	98	+1.6	245/326/365	120	273	11	9	14%	7%	96	+1.4
✕Adrian Cardenas 2008 · A	20	51→59	41→45	50	44	246/290/344	98	299	8	12	20%	6%	76	+0.1	259/306/354	95	312	6	10	18%	6%	85	+0.7	274/322/369	95	316	5	8	14%	6%	95	+1.2
✕Edgardo Rodriguez 2021 · A	20	48	41→45	48→30	43	233/283/334	102	283	8	5	21%	5%	72	-0.2	201/244/277	76	295	6	5	32%	5%	39	-2.5	180/204/231	51	257	9	0	33%	2%	11	-0.8
●Eliezer Álvarez 2015 · A	20	43→53	40→45	54→55	44	206/262/313	106	260	6	11	22%	6%	56	-1.3	245/295/352	107	322	5	15	24%	6%	81	+0.4	254/308/362	108	342	5	19	26%	6%	87	+0.4
✕John Drennen 2007 · A	20	47→56	43→50	45	44	229/290/340	111	297	10	8	26%	6%	76	+0.0	217/271/318	101	276	9	5	24%	6%	62	-0.9	246/296/375	130	293	10	1	19%	6%	85	+0.5
✕James Triantos 2023 · A	20	49→56	43→45	52→60	41	238/280/347	109	301	10	12	24%	5%	72	-0.2	245/290/342	97	292	8	24	18%	5%	76	+0.0	263/301/369	107	303	9	35	16%	4%	85	+0.5
✕Meibrys Viloria 2017 · A	20	51→47	41→45	45→40	45	245/298/350	105	302	7	3	21%	6%	82	+0.5	233/278/335	102	311	9	3	27%	5%	69	-0.4	205/291/302	97	307	9	3	33%	10%	64	-0.4
✕Jesus Rodriguez 2022 · A	20	47→55	38→45	48→50	49	218/288/307	89	289	3	11	24%	9%	66	-0.6	244/304/360	116	301	9	13	21%	7%	87	+0.8	254/315/362	108	309	9	16	20%	7%	88	+0.7
✕Taylor Lindsey 2012 · A	20	50→52	43→50	51→45	38	241/269/365	123	300	8	9	23%	3%	72	-0.2	242/278/373	131	281	13	6	19%	4%	79	+0.3	235/275/364	129	266	14	5	18%	5%	72	-0.2
✕Tucker Barnhart 2011 · A	20	47→54	35→45	48→40	45	216/280/282	66	302	2	7	28%	8%	56	-1.3	225/284/304	79	292	4	3	22%	7%	63	-0.8	242/327/368	126	287	12	2	19%	11%	89	+0.7
✕Logan Watkins 2010 · A	20	50→52	36→40	50→55	48	229/306/299	69	323	3	7	28%	9%	72	-0.2	234/294/316	82	315	3	14	25%	7%	70	-0.3	238/303/328	90	315	4	17	24%	8%	74	-0.1
✕Harold Garcia 2007 · A	20	45→55	39→45	46→55	47	211/305/306	95	281	6	9	25%	8%	76	+0.0	229/295/330	101	292	7	15	23%	5%	76	+0.1	253/307/360	107	342	7	26	27%	4%	86	+0.5
✕Brayan Rocchio 2021 · A	20	48→55	38→45	48→50	43	226/277/308	82	281	5	13	21%	5%	62	-0.9	225/284/354	129	286	12	14	25%	6%	77	+0.1	229/300/349	120	276	11	15	20%	8%	80	+0.3
✕Jorge Burgos 2023 · A	20	52	39→50	48→45	45	240/302/328	88	332	6	6	28%	8%	78	+0.2	200/265/315	115	283	12	4	32%	7%	59	-1.1	176/242/322	145	236	18	3	33%	7%	50	-1.0
✕Daniel Vellojin 2021 · A	21	45	39→45	47→45	51	215/298/306	91	267	6	8	21%	9%	71	-0.3	200/293/314	114	279	11	5	29%	11%	72	-0.2	179/275/290	111	249	12	4	31%	11%	56	-0.7