Jesus Alexander

C ACL Giants

Age 21 L/R 6'1" / 214 lbs ROK HR -15%H -3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1195ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2023	17	ROKDSL Giants Or…	85	.171/.259/.263	1	0	-6	—	.103/.176/.128
2024	18	ROKDSL Giants Bl…	197	.381/.441/.597	5	1	68	—	.227/.282/.331
2025	19	ROKSF	125	.248/.339/.294	0	1	22	—	.174/.234/.200
2027PROJMLE	21	MLBSF	235	.214/.273/.303	3	3	63	0.0
2028PROJ34% MLB	22	MLBSF	25	.215/.275/.312	0	0	68	0.0
2029PROJ48% MLB	23	MLBSF	76	.218/.279/.324	1	1	73	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2025 Rk

K%58

Whiff%44

BB%39

Chase%34

Z-Con%32

wRC+24

CompsAngel Ortiz (age 21) · Leandro Pineda (age 21) · Luis Valenzuela (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 41 proj PA

wRC+†63

AVG/OBP/SLG.212 / .271 / .300

PA41

HR0

K%27

BB%7

ISO89

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$12M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.2M
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M
2036	Arb-1	$0.6M	—	—	—
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$2M	+$0.8M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	17	ROK	DSL Giants Orange	—	85	76	13	4	0	1	7	18	2	0	0	171	259	263	522	92	211	21	8	245	-6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	DSL Giants Black	—	197	176	67	17	3	5	19	28	0	1	0	381	441	597	1.038	216	428	14	10	448	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK	ACL Giants	—	125	109	27	5	0	0	15	25	0	1	0	248	339	294	632	46	318	20	12	294	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Orange	—	85	78	8	2	0	0	5	22	2	0	0	103	176	128	305	26	147	26	6	159	-6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	—	197	181	41	9	2	2	14	35	0	1	0	227	282	331	614	105	262	18	7	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL Giants	—	125	115	20	3	0	0	9	34	0	1	0	174	234	200	434	26	241	27	7	200	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Orange	—	85	78	8	2	0	0	5	22	2	0	0	103	176	128	305	26	143	26	6	159	-6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Giants Orange	—	85	76	13	4	0	1	7	18	2	0	0	171	259	263	522	92	211	21	8	245	-6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	—	197	181	41	9	2	2	14	35	0	1	0	227	282	331	614	105	267	18	7	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Giants Black	—	197	176	67	17	3	5	19	28	0	1	0	381	441	597	1.038	216	428	14	10	448	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL Giants	—	125	115	20	3	0	0	9	34	0	1	0	174	234	200	434	26	244	27	7	200	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	ACL Giants	—	125	109	27	5	0	0	15	25	0	1	0	248	339	294	632	46	318	20	12	294	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Orange	—	85	78	8	2	0	0	5	22	2	0	0	103	176	128	305	26	147	26	6	159	-6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	—	197	181	41	9	2	2	14	35	0	1	0	227	282	331	614	105	262	18	7	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL Giants	—	125	115	20	3	0	0	9	34	0	1	0	174	234	200	434	26	241	27	7	200	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	—	197	181	41	9	2	2	14	35	0	1	0	227	282	331	614	105	262	18	7	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL Giants	—	125	115	20	3	0	0	9	34	0	1	0	174	234	200	434	26	241	27	7	200	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	21	MLB MLE	SF	0%	235	216	46	8	2	3	16	63	1	3	1	214	273	303	576	89	286	27	7	261	63	-10	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	SF	34%	73	68	14	3	0	1	5	19	0	1	0	218	278	319	597	100	287	26	7	269	68	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.0
2029	23	MLB MLE	SF	48%	156	143	32	6	1	3	11	41	1	2	1	222	283	331	614	109	288	26	7	276	73	-5	+0	+0	+3	+3	0.1
2030	24	MLB MLE	SF	53%	239	218	49	9	2	4	17	62	2	3	1	225	287	342	628	117	290	26	7	282	77	-7	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.3
2031	25	MLB MLE	SF	55%	310	283	64	12	2	6	22	79	2	4	2	227	289	350	639	123	290	25	7	286	80	-7	+0	+0	+6	+7	0.5
2032	26	MLB MLE	SF	56%	357	325	74	13	2	8	26	91	3	5	2	229	291	356	647	127	290	25	7	290	82	-8	+0	+0	+6	+8	0.7
2033	27	MLB MLE	SF	55%	379	345	78	14	2	8	28	97	3	5	2	228	290	353	643	125	289	26	7	288	81	-9	+0	+0	+7	+8	0.7
2034	28	MLB MLE	SF	55%	388	354	79	14	2	8	28	100	3	5	2	226	288	348	637	123	288	26	7	285	79	-10	+0	-1	+7	+8	0.5
2035	29	MLB MLE	SF	53%	386	353	79	14	2	8	28	100	2	4	3	223	285	342	627	119	287	26	7	282	77	-11	-0	-1	+7	+8	0.3
2036	30	MLB MLE	SF	53%	379	347	76	14	2	7	27	100	2	4	3	220	282	334	616	114	285	26	7	277	74	-12	-0	-2	+7	+8	0.1
2028	22	MLB CTX	SF	34%	25	23	5	1	0	0	2	7	0	0	0	215	275	312	587	97	284	28	8	265	68	-1	+0	+0	+0	+1	0.0
2029	23	MLB CTX	SF	48%	76	70	16	3	1	1	5	20	1	1	0	218	279	324	603	105	285	26	7	272	73	-2	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.1
2030	24	MLB CTX	SF	53%	126	115	26	5	1	2	9	32	1	2	1	221	283	333	617	112	286	25	7	277	77	-3	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.2
2031	25	MLB CTX	SF	55%	170	155	34	6	1	3	12	43	1	2	1	223	286	341	626	117	286	25	7	281	80	-4	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.3
2032	26	MLB CTX	SF	56%	199	181	41	8	1	4	15	50	1	3	1	225	288	346	634	122	286	25	8	284	82	-4	+0	+0	+4	+4	0.4
2033	27	MLB CTX	SF	55%	208	190	42	8	1	4	15	53	1	3	1	224	287	344	630	120	285	25	7	283	81	-5	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.4
2034	28	MLB CTX	SF	55%	212	193	43	8	1	4	16	55	1	3	1	222	285	339	624	117	284	26	8	280	79	-5	+0	-0	+4	+5	0.3
2035	29	MLB CTX	SF	53%	206	188	42	8	1	4	15	54	1	2	1	219	282	333	615	114	283	26	7	277	77	-6	+0	-1	+4	+4	0.2
2036	30	MLB CTX	SF	53%	199	182	40	7	1	4	14	52	1	2	2	216	278	326	604	109	281	26	7	272	74	-6	-0	-1	+4	+4	0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1421	1297	289	54	8	26	103	366	8	18	8	223	284	337	621	114	288	26	7	279	73	-37	+0	-2	+25	+31	1.8
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	593	133	25	4	12	47	167	4	8	4	224	286	341	626	116	290	26	7	279	73	-17	+0	-1	+12	+14	0.8
Career	—	MLE		—	3115	2848	621	114	17	55	223	791	20	35	16	218	280	328	607	110	280	25	7	275	73	-72	+0	-4	+48	+59	3.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	594	130	24	4	11	47	165	4	7	3	219	281	328	609	109	282	25	7	275	73	-17	+0	-1	+12	+14	0.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 ROKACL Giants · 125 PAwOBA .290 → .200 (−89)K% 20.0% → 27.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.00%	÷1.045	×1.440	—	—	27.55%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.00%	÷1.070	×0.620	—	×0.995	6.92%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.720	—	×0.995	0.00%
Singles /BIP	26.19%	÷1.042	×0.820	×0.986	×0.995	20.24%
Doubles /BIP	5.95%	÷1.001	×0.720	×0.986	×0.995	4.20%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.720	×0.986	×0.995	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.128	×0.780	—	×0.995	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 126, 1B 108, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 109, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.986.

Result: wOBA .290 → .200; ISO .046 → .032; BABIP .318 → .241. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 DSLDSL Giants Black · 197 PAwOBA .441 → .269 (−172)K% 14.2% → 17.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.21%	÷0.977	×1.220	—	—	17.75%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.64%	÷0.971	×0.700	—	×0.995	6.92%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.700	—	×0.995	0.00%
Singles /BIP	28.38%	÷0.982	×0.680	×0.966	×0.995	18.89%
Doubles /BIP	11.49%	÷1.057	×0.600	×0.966	×0.995	6.27%
Triples /BIP	2.03%	÷1.127	×0.600	×0.966	×0.995	1.04%
Home runs /BIP	3.38%	÷1.092	×0.470	—	×0.995	1.45%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 118, 1B 96, 2B 111, 3B 125, K 95, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.966.

Result: wOBA .441 → .269; ISO .216 → .107; BABIP .428 → .262. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 DSLDSL Giants Orange · 85 PAwOBA .239 → .159 (−80)K% 21.2% → 25.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.18%	÷0.997	×1.220	—	—	25.92%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.24%	÷1.027	×0.700	—	×1.008	5.65%
HBP% /PA	2.35%	—	×0.700	—	×1.008	1.66%
Singles /BIP	13.79%	÷0.952	×0.680	×1.034	×1.008	10.27%
Doubles /BIP	6.90%	÷0.993	×0.600	×1.034	×1.008	4.34%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.600	×1.034	×1.008	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.72%	÷0.949	×0.470	—	×1.008	0.86%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 90, 2B 99, 3B 130, K 99, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.034.

Result: wOBA .239 → .159; ISO .092 → .052; BABIP .211 → .147. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Curt Casalilast yr '24 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,566 PA	2.4	1,566	47	2	217	311	367	+28	+19	7.8	7.9
/162	664	20	1	+11.9	+7.9	3.3	pk7: 8
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#3Chris Widger'95-'06 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,998 PA	3.0	1,998	55	10	227*	283*	381*	+33	-0	3.6	4.1
/162	664	18	3	+11.1	-0.2	1.2	pk7: 5
#4Ben Davis'98-'04 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,698 PA	2.6	1,698	38	9	228*	295*	352*	+30	-0	3.6	3.6
/162	664	15	4	+11.5	-0.0	1.4	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	2.2	1,462	29	18	226	284	346	+26	+24	2.7	2.7
/162	664	13	8	+11.9	+10.9	1.2	pk7: 3
#5Mike Difelice'96-'08 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,714 PA	2.6	1,714	28	3	226*	277*	345*	+30	+0	0.6	1.5
/162	664	11	1	+11.7	+0.0	0.2	pk7: 2
#6Chad Moeller'00-'10 * career totals — 10 seasons, 1,539 PA	2.3	1,539	29	2	218*	277*	341*	+27	-0	-0.2	1.0
/162	664	13	1	+11.6	-0.1	-0.1	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jesus Alexander (OGILVIE)	21	—	—	—	—	212/271/300	89	286	0	0	27%	7%	63	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Angel Ortiz 2024 · A	21	40→45	39→50	47→45	40	197/244/283	86	268	6	8	28%	6%	48	-2.5	228/285/354	126	301	11	6	26%	7%	80	-0.1	227/286/370	143	294	13	8	26%	7%	82	+0.0
✕Leandro Pineda 2023 · A	21	36→46	39→50	48→45	42	174/249/268	95	270	5	6	35%	8%	47	-2.5	202/266/320	118	277	11	6	30%	7%	66	-1.1	218/291/356	137	276	14	5	25%	7%	81	-0.0
✕Luis Valenzuela 2015 · A	21	40	37→45	55→45	39	195/234/270	75	262	4	7	27%	5%	40	-3.0	244/269/336	92	305	5	7	21%	3%	69	-0.9	263/285/365	102	319	5	7	19%	2%	78	-0.1
✕Anderson Suriel 2024 · A	21	41	37→60	44→50	40	196/247/271	75	267	5	8	28%	6%	47	-2.6	198/258/315	117	298	11	8	35%	6%	62	-1.4	173/238/310	137	255	13	9	36%	5%	50	-0.6
✕Travis Swaggerty 2019 · A	21	39→46	41→45	50→55	40	192/251/290	98	279	8	7	33%	7%	53	-2.1	211/277/311	100	301	9	15	31%	8%	68	-1.0	209/278/308	99	307	7	19	32%	8%	63	-0.8
✕Raynel Delgado 2022 · A	22	38→48	40	47→60	37	187/242/274	87	288	8	13	36%	6%	46	-2.6	219/288/314	95	306	8	18	29%	8%	72	-0.7	246/311/338	92	338	7	32	27%	8%	82	+0.0
✕Miguel Gómez 2014 · A	21	40→50	38→50	49→40	42	193/246/275	81	258	4	5	26%	6%	47	-2.5	221/260/321	100	262	8	4	19%	4%	63	-1.4	272/289/402	130	307	13	1	16%	2%	89	+0.4
✕Thomas Milone 2015 · A	20	41→46	36→45	51→55	38	195/248/268	73	295	3	10	33%	6%	46	-2.6	200/255/265	65	287	3	13	29%	6%	48	-2.5	237/293/355	117	331	8	17	29%	6%	79	-0.1
✕Donald Lutz 2010 · A	21	39→49	39→50	50→45	40	192/244/278	86	264	5	8	29%	6%	47	-2.5	217/263/341	124	299	13	6	31%	5%	69	-0.9	217/262/369	152	289	16	8	30%	4%	73	-0.4
✕Isan Díaz 2015 · A	19	34→43	39→55	47→45	40	170/236/260	90	270	6	8	37%	7%	40	-3.0	210/275/349	139	306	13	8	34%	8%	76	-0.4	212/290/379	167	275	21	5	30%	9%	86	+0.2
✕Shane Mardirosian 2017 · A	21	41→40	36→40	46→45	39	198/244/266	69	266	3	9	26%	4%	44	-2.8	203/257/283	80	293	6	8	31%	6%	53	-2.1	198/267/282	84	301	7	7	34%	7%	57	-0.6
✕Juan Silva 2012 · A	21	42→47	40→45	46→55	42	200/264/291	91	304	7	7	34%	8%	58	-1.7	225/301/328	103	316	8	21	29%	10%	80	-0.1	231/313/335	104	314	8	29	27%	10%	85	+0.1
✕Je'Von Ward 2021 · A	21	43→37	37→45	47→50	42	199/261/272	74	301	4	8	33%	8%	52	-2.2	202/251/297	95	324	8	10	37%	6%	54	-2.0	195/284/320	125	290	14	8	35%	11%	73	-0.3
✕Derrick Mitchell 2008 · A	21	39→47	39→50	46→55	38	192/246/277	84	273	6	9	31%	5%	48	-2.5	200/239/321	121	260	11	10	27%	4%	55	-1.9	215/265/343	128	275	14	19	26%	5%	68	-0.7
✕Jason Denham 2007 · A	21	41→45	35→40	53→55	44	191/255/252	61	281	3	10	31%	8%	45	-2.7	220/280/300	80	293	8	18	26%	7%	65	-1.2	220/282/295	75	288	8	21	25%	8%	64	-0.8
✕Rosell Herrera 2013 · A	20	40→50	37→45	48→55	42	193/245/268	75	263	5	9	28%	6%	45	-2.7	238/286/328	90	316	8	10	26%	6%	74	-0.6	253/308/344	91	321	4	24	21%	7%	84	+0.1
✕KD Kang 2009 · A	21	44→51	40→50	47→45	41	213/261/311	97	294	6	6	29%	6%	61	-1.5	229/294/339	110	328	6	7	30%	8%	80	-0.2	229/303/348	119	323	8	6	29%	8%	83	+0.1
✕Luis Suisbel 2023 · A	20	33→43	38→50	46→45	40	163/257/237	74	251	5	6	34%	7%	45	-2.7	200/279/328	128	306	15	5	37%	7%	73	-0.6	191/267/326	136	288	18	4	38%	7%	68	-0.8
✕Dylan Johnston 2008 · A	21	39	38→55	48→50	36	175/239/252	77	323	5	12	44%	7%	40	-3.1	197/250/319	122	343	14	8	44%	6%	59	-1.6	185/237/314	129	314	16	5	45%	6%	51	-0.9
✕Jalen Miller 2018 · A	21	39→44	39→45	47→50	38	192/234/281	89	260	6	7	28%	5%	44	-2.8	207/251/318	111	274	11	12	28%	5%	59	-1.7	184/243/300	116	238	12	18	28%	7%	49	-1.5

Jesus Alexander

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps