Jesus Lopez

P DSL Giants Orange

Age 22 RHP 6'2" / 170 lbs ROK

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	20	ROKDSL Giants Bl…	4	4	11	4.22	3.48	25.0%	19.2%	—	K 17.0% · BB 24.0% · FIP 4.71
2026	21	ROKDSL Giants Or…	16	4	40	5.17	3.92	16.0%	7.2%	—	K 10.9% · BB 9.0% · FIP 5.02
2027PROJ	22	MLBSF	17	0	18	4.92	4.92	17.9%	10.4%	-0.1
2028PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBSF	17	0	18	4.74	4.66	19.6%	9.7%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsNick Lockhart (age 22) · Adam Bernero (age 23) · Brad Deppermann (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 110

ERA4.92

FIP4.92

K%17.9%

BB%10.4%

K-BB%7.5%

Proj IP18

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 18 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	12	8	33	155	17	18	2	67%	2.8	7.5%	14.5%	-7.1%	1.6%	6.75	5.20	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Giants Black	12	8	33	155	17	18	2	67%	2.8	11.0%	11.6%	-0.6%	1.3%	6.75	4.48	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	16	0	29	143	30	10	3	0%	1.8	14.3%	8.7%	5.5%	2.7%	5.59	4.48	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	16	0	29	143	30	10	3	0%	1.8	14.3%	8.7%	5.5%	2.7%	5.59	4.48	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL Giants Black	16	0	29	143	30	10	3	0%	1.8	21.0%	7.0%	14.0%	2.1%	5.59	3.41	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	4	4	11	52	13	10	0	100%	2.7	17.0%	24.0%	-7.0%	0.0%	4.22	4.71	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	4	4	11	52	13	10	0	100%	2.7	17.0%	24.0%	-7.0%	0.0%	4.22	4.71	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	DSL Giants Black	4	4	11	52	13	10	0	100%	2.7	25.0%	19.2%	5.8%	0.0%	4.22	3.48	—
2026	21	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Orange	16	4	40	181	29	13	4	25%	2.5	10.9%	9.0%	1.9%	3.1%	5.17	5.02	—
2026	21	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Orange	16	4	40	181	29	13	4	25%	2.5	10.9%	9.0%	1.9%	3.1%	5.17	5.02	—
2026	21	ROK RAW	DSL Giants Orange	16	4	40	181	29	13	4	25%	2.5	16.0%	7.2%	8.8%	2.2%	5.17	3.92	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	SF	17	0	18	76	14	8	2	0%	1.1	17.9%	10.4%	7.5%	3.0%	4.92	4.92	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	SF	36	0	37	158	31	15	5	0%	1.0	19.6%	9.7%	10.0%	2.9%	4.74	4.66	-0.0
2028	23	MLB CTX	SF	17	0	18	76	15	7	2	0%	1.1	19.6%	9.7%	10.0%	2.9%	4.74	4.66	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		18	0	18	78	15	7	2	0%	1.0	19.6%	9.7%	10.0%	2.9%	4.74	4.28	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	163	76	22	0%	1.1	19.6%	9.7%	10.0%	2.9%	4.74	4.28	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		48	16	113	531	61	64	12	33%	2.4	11.4%	12.0%	-0.6%	2.3%	5.65	4.89	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		85	28	200	940	107	113	21	33%	2.4	11.4%	12.0%	-0.6%	2.3%	5.65	4.89	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jesus Lopez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.92	17.9%	10.4%	3.0%	—	4.66	19.6%	10.0%	37	-0.26	—	—	—
Nick Lockhart R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	22	SW	4.63	16.1%	10.6%	2.8%	.274	—	—	—	—	—	4.44	140	85
Adam Bernero R 2000 · 4.15 FIP	23	SW	4.15	14.2%	8.5%	2.1%	.283	4.88	14.2%	6.3%	247	+0.73	3.45	376	85
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	84
Juan Mendez R 2021 · 4.45 FIP	22	SW	4.45	20.5%	14.2%	2.3%	.271	5.07	21.9%	6.1%	128	+0.62	3.69	156	83
A.J. Bogucki R 2017 · 3.84 FIP	22	SW	3.84	15.5%	8.4%	1.8%	.308	4.40	19.2%	8.2%	87	+0.56	3.84	142	82
Todd Peterson R 2021 · 5.11 FIP	23	SW	5.11	18.4%	10.3%	4.1%	.279	4.83	15.0%	4.3%	124	-0.28	4.45	175	82
Yunior Montero R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	22	SW	4.82	16.9%	14.1%	2.5%	.276	4.58	21.5%	6.2%	91	-0.24	3.65	127	82
Dan Wheeler R 2000 · 3.82 FIP	22	SW	3.82	15.3%	8.1%	1.8%	.325	4.16	15.7%	9.7%	69	+0.34	2.77	641	81
Nick Gallagher R 2018 · 4.26 FIP	22	SW	4.26	17.2%	7.1%	3.1%	.310	4.55	22.4%	7.1%	90	+0.29	4.10	196	81
Huei-Sheng Lin R 2021 · 4.71 FIP	22	SW	4.71	15.4%	8.7%	3.3%	.310	6.28	16.6%	1.7%	52	+1.57	4.59	120	81
Ben Anderson R 2021 · 4.84 FIP	23	SW	4.84	19.8%	9.4%	4.0%	.309	4.02	16.2%	7.7%	147	-0.82	3.80	399	81
Billy Corcoran R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SW	4.20	19.5%	10.0%	2.7%	.308	5.26	16.4%	8.7%	208	+1.06	4.20	277	81
Luis Rujano R 2024 · 4.54 FIP	21	SW	4.54	17.0%	12.3%	2.4%	.361	4.80	17.9%	-0.8%	97	+0.26	4.54	203	81
Daniel Hudson R 2009 · 5.06 FIP	22	SW	5.06	17.1%	11.0%	3.7%	.232	3.42	19.4%	13.6%	363	-1.64	1.68	850	80
Kyle Zurak R 2017 · 3.96 FIP	22	SU	3.96	21.2%	9.4%	2.6%	.302	3.42	16.7%	7.5%	121	-0.54	3.20	181	80
Luis F. Castillo R 2016 · 4.51 FIP	21	SU	4.51	16.7%	10.5%	2.7%	.337	3.50	19.7%	12.3%	96	-1.01	2.95	254	80
Tanner Dodson R 2019 · 5.04 FIP	22	SW	5.04	13.6%	10.8%	3.1%	.433	4.48	17.7%	2.8%	91	-0.56	3.87	277	79
Jeff Manship R 2009 · 4.69 FIP	24	SW	4.69	14.4%	10.3%	2.7%	.330	4.23	14.9%	9.5%	51	-0.46	2.83	250	79
Jeff Niemann R 2008 · 5.04 FIP	25	SW	5.04	18.4%	10.5%	4.0%	.294	4.16	17.4%	10.3%	490	-0.88	2.96	544	79
Cole Stapler R 2017 · 3.83 FIP	22	SW	3.83	19.2%	6.0%	2.9%	.266	3.31	18.1%	13.2%	220	-0.52	3.26	255	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	28	19.1%	9.9%	1.14	4.80
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Randy Flores ('10)	1.2	42	17.7%	9.3%	1.04	4.61
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Bill Pleis ('61-'66, -0 WAR*)	1.4	56	19.7%*	9.8%*	1.15*	4.53*