Franklin Arias

SS Portland Sea Dogs

Age 21 R/R 5'11" / 170 lbs AA HR -5%K -4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

Scout OFP58ETA2028FG ETA2026MLB%12%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	19	A+BOS	392	.265/.331/.380	6	7	60	—	.228/.269/.317
2025	19	ASalem Red Sox	86	.346/.407/.397	0	4	94	—	.300/.349/.338
2026	20	AAABOS	188	.331/.397/.506	6	4	122	—	.310/.359/.456
2026	20	AABOS	332	.318/.412/.587	19	5	145	—	.297/.366/.520
2027PROJ12% MLB	21	MLBBOS	38	.278/.333/.444	1	1	113	0.2
2028PROJ63% MLB	22	MLBBOS	360	.281/.338/.455	12	6	117	2.2
2029PROJ81% MLB	23	MLBBOS	483	.282/.341/.461	17	9	120	3.1

Next 3 projected WAR 5.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$9M2033Arb-2$15M2034Arb-3$22M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AAA

Z-Con%90

Whiff%89

K%85

Max EV45

Speed43

Chase%37

Career WAR13 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 68, comp-based) · star 29% · didn't stick 32%

CompsWander Franco (age 21) · Vaughn Grissom (age 22) · Gabriel Moreno (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†113

AVG/OBP/SLG.278 / .333 / .444

PA38

HR1

K%16

BB%5

BABIP302

ISO143

MLB%12%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$136M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 61 / POW 48

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT61

scouting grade only

POWER48

scouting grade only

EYE52

scouting grade only

SPEED47

scouting grade only

DEFENSE59

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+3.1	$25M	+$24M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+3.5	$28M	+$27M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+3.7	$28M	+$28M
2032	Arb-1	$9M	+3.6	$25M	+$20M
2033	Arb-2	$15M	+3.5	$22M	+$14M
2034	Arb-3	$22M	+3.3	$19M	+$8M
Totals		$49M		$147M	+$121M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	17	ROK	DSL Red Sox Red	—	159	137	48	9	1	1	19	14	3	3	2	350	440	453	893	102	385	9	12	404	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	A	Salem Red Sox	—	166	148	38	9	0	3	16	29	1	5	2	257	333	378	712	122	299	17	10	321	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	FCL Red Sox	—	206	166	59	16	2	6	34	36	4	30	4	355	475	584	1.060	229	421	17	17	459	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	—	48	46	12	2	0	2	0	6	0	1	1	261	261	435	696	174	250	12	0	291	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A+	Greenville Drive	—	392	355	94	21	1	6	32	35	3	7	7	265	331	380	711	115	278	9	8	320	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A	Salem Red Sox	—	86	78	27	4	0	0	6	12	2	4	1	346	407	397	804	51	409	14	7	368	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	AAA	Worcester Red Sox	—	188	166	55	11	0	6	16	28	2	4	2	331	397	506	903	175	360	15	9	392	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	—	332	283	90	17	1	19	37	46	8	5	2	318	412	587	998	269	320	14	11	430	145	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	—	159	143	34	6	1	1	13	17	3	3	2	238	314	315	629	77	258	11	8	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	—	166	153	35	7	0	3	11	42	1	5	2	229	285	333	618	105	289	25	7	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	—	206	178	46	11	1	5	22	50	4	30	4	258	353	416	769	157	322	24	11	335	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	—	48	46	12	2	0	1	0	7	0	1	1	261	261	370	630	109	261	15	0	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	—	392	369	84	16	1	5	18	49	3	7	7	228	269	317	586	89	247	12	5	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A MLE	Salem Red Sox	—	86	80	24	3	0	0	4	17	2	4	1	300	349	338	686	38	378	20	5	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	AAA MLE	Worcester Red Sox	—	188	171	53	10	0	5	11	34	2	4	2	310	359	456	815	146	340	18	6	349	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	—	332	296	88	16	1	16	24	56	8	5	2	297	366	520	886	223	309	17	7	382	145	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	—	159	143	34	6	1	1	13	17	3	3	2	238	314	315	629	77	264	11	8	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Red Sox Red	—	159	137	48	9	1	1	19	14	3	3	2	350	440	453	893	102	385	9	12	404	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	372	331	81	18	1	8	33	92	5	35	6	245	322	378	700	133	312	25	9	305	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	2 teams	—	372	314	97	25	2	9	50	65	5	35	6	309	412	487	899	178	362	17	13	397	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	526	495	120	21	1	6	22	73	5	12	9	242	282	325	607	83	271	14	4	268	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	526	479	133	27	1	8	38	53	5	12	9	278	337	388	725	111	296	10	7	325	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	AA MLE	2 teams	—	520	468	141	26	1	21	34	90	10	9	4	301	361	496	857	194	329	17	7	370	137	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	AA RAW	2 teams	—	520	449	145	28	1	25	53	74	10	9	4	323	406	557	963	234	335	14	10	416	137	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	—	159	142	34	6	1	1	13	17	3	3	2	239	314	317	631	77	258	11	8	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	372	331	81	18	1	8	33	92	5	35	6	245	322	378	700	133	307	25	9	305	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	526	494	120	21	1	6	22	73	5	12	9	243	282	326	608	83	270	14	4	268	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	AA MLE	2 teams	—	520	471	141	26	1	21	34	90	10	9	4	299	361	493	854	193	320	17	7	370	137	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	18	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	372	331	81	18	1	8	33	92	5	35	6	245	322	378	700	133	307	25	9	305	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	526	494	120	21	1	6	22	73	5	12	9	243	282	326	608	83	270	14	4	268	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	AA MLE	2 teams	—	520	471	141	26	1	21	34	90	10	9	4	299	361	493	854	193	320	17	7	370	137	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	21	MLB MLE	BOS	12%	630	577	157	29	2	21	39	98	9	10	5	270	326	434	759	163	292	16	6	335	113	+10	+0	+3	+7	+14	1.9
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	21	MLB CTX	BOS	12%	38	35	9	2	0	1	2	6	1	1	0	278	333	444	777	166	302	16	5	343	113	+1	+0	+0	+0	+1	0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	BOS	63%	568	519	142	26	2	20	36	87	8	10	4	273	331	444	775	171	292	15	6	342	117	+12	+0	+3	+6	+12	3.4
2029	23	MLB MLE	BOS	81%	597	544	150	27	2	22	40	91	8	11	4	275	334	451	785	176	293	15	7	346	120	+14	+1	+4	+6	+13	3.9
2030	24	MLB MLE	BOS	85%	615	559	154	28	2	23	42	94	9	11	4	275	335	454	790	179	294	15	7	348	121	+16	+1	+5	+7	+13	4.2
2031	25	MLB MLE	BOS	86%	627	569	157	29	2	23	44	98	9	11	5	275	336	454	790	180	294	16	7	348	121	+16	+0	+5	+7	+14	4.2
2032	26	MLB MLE	BOS	87%	634	575	157	29	2	23	45	101	9	11	5	273	335	452	787	179	293	16	7	347	121	+16	+0	+5	+7	+14	4.2
2033	27	MLB MLE	BOS	85%	634	576	157	29	2	23	45	102	8	10	5	272	334	449	784	177	293	16	7	345	120	+15	+0	+5	+7	+14	4.1
2034	28	MLB MLE	BOS	85%	629	571	155	28	2	23	45	102	8	9	4	271	332	445	777	174	292	16	7	343	118	+14	+0	+4	+7	+14	3.9
2035	29	MLB MLE	BOS	82%	619	562	152	28	2	22	44	103	8	7	4	268	330	439	769	171	292	17	7	339	116	+12	-0	+3	+7	+13	3.5
2036	30	MLB MLE	BOS	81%	609	554	147	27	1	21	43	103	7	5	4	266	327	432	758	166	290	17	7	335	113	+9	-1	+2	+7	+13	3.2
2037	31	MLB MLE	BOS	81%	595	542	142	26	1	20	41	103	7	2	6	262	322	422	744	161	288	17	7	329	109	+6	-2	+2	+6	+13	2.6
2038	32	MLB MLE	BOS	80%	576	525	135	24	1	18	39	102	7	3	7	257	316	410	726	153	285	18	7	322	104	+3	-2	+1	+6	+12	2.0
2039	33	MLB MLE	BOS	87%	546	499	125	22	1	16	36	100	6	3	8	250	308	395	703	144	281	18	7	312	98	-2	-3	-0	+6	+12	1.4
2040	34	MLB MLE	BOS	82%	499	459	111	18	1	14	32	95	5	3	7	242	299	376	675	134	275	19	6	301	90	-6	-2	-1	+5	+11	0.7
2028	22	MLB CTX	BOS	63%	360	329	92	18	1	12	23	55	5	6	3	281	338	455	793	174	303	15	6	349	117	+7	+0	+2	+4	+8	2.2
2029	23	MLB CTX	BOS	81%	483	441	124	25	1	17	32	73	7	9	4	282	341	461	802	179	303	15	7	353	120	+11	+0	+3	+5	+10	3.1
2030	24	MLB CTX	BOS	85%	521	473	134	27	1	19	36	80	7	9	4	283	343	465	807	181	304	15	7	355	121	+13	+0	+4	+6	+11	3.5
2031	25	MLB CTX	BOS	86%	541	491	140	28	2	20	38	84	7	10	4	282	343	464	807	182	304	16	7	355	121	+14	+0	+4	+6	+12	3.7
2032	26	MLB CTX	BOS	87%	551	500	141	28	2	20	39	88	7	9	4	281	342	462	804	181	304	16	7	354	121	+14	+0	+4	+6	+12	3.6
2033	27	MLB CTX	BOS	85%	541	490	137	27	2	19	39	87	7	9	4	280	341	460	801	180	303	16	7	352	120	+13	+0	+4	+6	+12	3.5
2034	28	MLB CTX	BOS	85%	532	482	134	27	1	19	38	87	7	7	4	278	339	455	794	177	303	16	7	350	118	+11	-0	+3	+6	+12	3.3
2035	29	MLB CTX	BOS	82%	510	463	127	25	1	17	36	85	6	6	3	276	337	449	786	173	302	17	7	346	116	+10	+0	+3	+5	+11	2.9
2036	30	MLB CTX	BOS	81%	494	450	122	24	1	16	35	83	6	4	3	273	333	442	775	169	301	17	7	342	113	+8	-0	+2	+5	+11	2.6
2037	31	MLB CTX	BOS	81%	479	437	117	23	1	15	33	83	6	2	5	269	329	433	761	163	298	17	7	336	109	+5	-2	+1	+5	+10	2.1
2038	32	MLB CTX	BOS	80%	462	423	112	22	1	14	31	82	5	2	6	264	322	420	742	156	295	18	7	329	104	+2	-2	+1	+5	+10	1.6
2039	33	MLB CTX	BOS	87%	473	434	112	21	1	14	31	87	5	2	7	257	315	404	719	147	290	18	7	319	98	-1	-2	-0	+5	+10	1.2
2040	34	MLB CTX	BOS	82%	410	377	94	17	1	11	26	78	4	2	6	248	305	385	690	136	284	19	6	307	90	-5	-2	-1	+4	+9	0.5
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	6357	5790	1586	312	16	213	437	1052	79	77	57	274	333	444	777	170	301	17	7	343	111	+102	-7	+30	+68	+138	33.7
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	592	163	32	2	22	45	108	8	8	6	275	335	448	783	172	303	17	7	343	111	+10	-1	+3	+7	+14	3.4
Career	—	MLE		—	9645	8783	2340	427	26	315	654	1603	127	160	90	266	326	429	755	162	293	17	7	332	111	+129	-7	+38	+86	+175	43.0
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	592	158	29	2	21	44	108	9	11	6	267	328	429	757	162	293	17	7	332	111	+10	-1	+3	+7	+14	3.5

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jhonny Peraltalast yr '17 career totals — 14 seasons, 7,291 PA	11.0	7,291	202	17	267	329	423	+66	+63	42.9	37.5
/162	664	18	2	+6.1	+5.8	3.9	pk7: 32
#2Kyle Seagerlast yr '21 career totals — 11 seasons, 6,204 PA	9.3	6,204	242	55	251	321	442	+22	+55	35.4	32.4
/162	664	26	6	+2.4	+5.8	3.8	pk7: 29
#3Asdrúbal Cabreralast yr '21 career totals — 15 seasons, 7,401 PA	11.1	7,401	195	91	266	329	423	+58	+11	38.2	32.2
/162	664	17	8	+5.2	+1.0	3.4	pk7: 26
#4Gil McDougald'51-'60 * career totals — 10 seasons, 5,395 PA	8.1	5,395	112	45	271*	343*	435*	+27	+38	32.4	29.0
/162	664	14	6	+3.3	+4.6	4.0	pk7: 26
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 11 projected seasons	9.6	6,394	220	78	268	324	436	+66	+42	34.0	28.7
/162	664	23	8	+6.8	+4.3	3.5	pk7: 23
#5Freddy Parent'01-'11 * career totals — 10 seasons, 5,563 PA	8.4	5,563	20	184	262*	327*	420*	+51	+27	29.0	27.5
/162	664	2	22	+6.1	+3.2	3.5	pk7: 26
#6Glenn Wright'24-'35 * career totals — 9 seasons, 4,480 PA	6.7	4,480	94	38	260*	307*	452*	+46	+46	23.2	23.2
/162	664	14	6	+6.8	+6.8	3.4	pk7: 23

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Franklin Arias (OGILVIE)	21	54→61	41→48	51→47	52	268/323/430	162	292	11	5	16%	6%	113	+1.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Wander Franco 2022 · MLB	21	56→60	49→55	49→55	52	276/331/440	164	297	14	9	13%	7%	117	+2.6	272/329/439	167	293	16	20	13%	8%	116	+2.5	276/335/445	169	294	16	27	12%	8%	120	+2.0
●Vaughn Grissom 2023 · MLB	22	56→65	48→50	54→55	47	277/339/417	140	321	15	19	19%	6%	115	+2.4	264/329/386	122	318	11	15	19%	7%	104	+1.6	259/326/374	115	315	9	13	20%	8%	98	+0.8
●Gabriel Moreno 2022 · AA	22	54→60	53→50	47→45	46	272/326/449	177	307	20	7	19%	6%	118	+2.6	279/338/393	114	335	11	9	19%	8%	108	+1.9	280/361/429	149	314	16	5	15%	10%	126	+2.2
✕Jordan Diaz 2023 · MLB	22	55→59	50→55	42→30	43	277/313/436	159	316	18	3	19%	5%	109	+2.0	262/307/421	159	308	20	2	21%	5%	104	+1.6	259/307/418	159	304	21	0	22%	5%	101	+1.1
●Alejandro Kirk 2021 · MLB	22	52→57	46→50	49→40	55	253/327/392	139	286	12	5	16%	9%	105	+1.7	260/338/400	140	280	16	2	13%	10%	111	+2.1	263/347/394	131	277	16	0	11%	10%	113	+1.5
●Carlos Correa 2017 · MLB	22	54→61	54→60	54→55	53	273/345/463	190	316	21	17	20%	10%	128	+3.3	269/344/470	201	314	25	7	22%	10%	129	+3.4	263/344/444	182	303	22	0	20%	10%	124	+3.1
●Gleyber Torres 2019 · MLB	22	51→55	53→60	46→50	47	259/324/431	172	322	20	10	26%	8%	113	+2.3	262/329/447	185	304	24	9	22%	9%	118	+2.7	259/345/399	140	294	17	6	17%	11%	114	+2.6
●Miguel Vargas 2022 · AA	22	52→54	50→55	51→50	45	260/311/412	152	306	17	9	21%	6%	103	+1.6	238/317/395	157	283	16	12	21%	9%	101	+1.4	226/328/409	183	251	21	13	19%	12%	110	+2.0
●Bo Bichette 2020 · MLB	22	55→62	51→60	52→55	45	274/322/446	172	332	16	21	22%	6%	115	+2.4	283/327/467	184	336	21	18	22%	6%	122	+3.0	296/338/473	177	346	22	13	20%	5%	129	+3.8
●Elijah Dukes 2006 · AA	22	52→54	50→55	51→50	46	262/312/420	158	307	17	16	21%	6%	105	+1.7	253/337/426	173	297	19	14	21%	10%	116	+2.5	246/353/433	188	290	20	15	21%	12%	123	+1.6
●Jordan Walker 2024 · MLB	22	53→58	51→55	51→50	46	265/331/432	167	333	19	13	25%	8%	116	+2.5	239/297/388	149	309	17	12	27%	7%	93	+0.8	236/293/390	154	305	18	13	28%	7%	92	+0.7
●Omar Infante 2003 · MLB	21	54→64	46→55	44→50	48	266/314/393	127	298	14	8	16%	6%	100	+1.3	241/290/364	123	281	11	13	18%	7%	84	+0.1	285/317/412	127	305	11	9	10%	4%	105	+1.6
●Mike Zunino 2013 · AA	22	49→48	51→65	49→30	46	252/301/414	162	289	19	9	20%	6%	100	+1.3	208/267/379	171	271	22	3	31%	5%	80	-0.1	229/305/466	236	295	33	0	33%	8%	115	+1.9
✕Oscar Taveras 2013 · AA	21	58	50→55	52→45	45	288/327/460	172	322	16	7	16%	5%	120	+2.8	266/303/403	137	299	13	7	16%	5%	98	+1.2	264/298/382	117	297	12	4	15%	4%	91	+0.4
●Junior Caminero 2024 · MLB	21	51→55	55→65	47→45	43	265/312/442	176	315	24	7	24%	6%	111	+2.1	259/309/471	212	287	30	6	22%	6%	117	+2.6	256/314/491	234	268	35	4	20%	7%	124	+3.1
●Angel Salome 2006 · A	20	53→63	49→50	49→45	45	264/300/418	154	294	16	7	17%	5%	101	+1.4	275/312/414	139	321	13	5	18%	5%	103	+1.6	299/336/445	146	347	13	4	17%	5%	119	+1.7
●Maikel Franco 2014 · AA	21	53→58	51→55	43→40	42	269/301/433	164	303	18	3	19%	4%	105	+1.7	258/296/421	163	288	18	3	17%	5%	100	+1.3	250/298/422	172	268	22	1	16%	6%	102	+1.4
✕Adael Amador 2024 · AA	21	52→56	48→50	49→55	54	257/333/399	142	291	15	16	17%	9%	109	+2.0	235/310/364	129	275	14	21	19%	9%	92	+0.7	231/310/357	126	266	13	22	18%	9%	88	+0.4
✕Kyle Blanks 2009 · AA	22	53→60	51→55	47→45	45	267/331/431	164	321	19	6	23%	6%	116	+2.5	243/320/416	173	317	20	5	28%	8%	108	+1.9	226/307/411	185	301	21	3	30%	9%	102	+1.0
●Luis Urías 2020 · MLB	23	51→61	47→55	47→45	50	248/327/387	140	308	14	6	23%	9%	104	+1.6	242/326/400	158	294	18	6	23%	9%	107	+1.8	239/331/399	160	283	19	4	21%	10%	109	+1.3

Franklin Arias

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps