Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 17 | ROK | DSL Red Sox Red | 10 | 10 | 36 | 147 | 28 | 10 | 4 | 100% | 3.6 | 13.0% | 8.5% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 2.75 | 6.02 | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK | DSL Red Sox Red | 10 | 10 | 36 | 147 | 28 | 10 | 4 | 100% | 3.6 | 19.0% | 6.8% | 12.2% | 2.7% | 2.75 | 3.82 | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK | FCL Red Sox | 12 | 4 | 31 | 125 | 30 | 11 | 1 | 33% | 2.6 | 16.3% | 11.0% | 5.3% | 1.2% | 3.82 | 3.80 | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK | FCL Red Sox | 12 | 4 | 31 | 125 | 30 | 11 | 1 | 33% | 2.6 | 24.0% | 8.8% | 15.2% | 0.8% | 3.82 | 2.64 | — |
| 2025 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 1 | 54 | 241 | 38 | 21 | 5 | 4% | 2.1 | 10.9% | 10.7% | 0.2% | 4.1% | 4.53 | 5.81 | — |
| 2025 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 1 | 54 | 241 | 38 | 21 | 5 | 4% | 2.1 | 15.8% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 2.1% | 4.53 | 4.07 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 20 | A | Salem RidgeYaks | 25 | 0 | 45 | 198 | 46 | 16 | 8 | 0% | 1.8 | 17.2% | 9.5% | 7.7% | 5.3% | 4.63 | 5.74 | -0.6 |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | BOS | 30 | 0 | 32 | 133 | 14 | 17 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 10.7% | 12.8% | -2.1% | 3.1% | 5.89 | 5.89 | -0.5 |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 10.7% | 12.8% | -2.1% | 3.1% | 5.89 | 5.89 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 20 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 76 | 331 | 60 | 33 | 12 | — | — | 18.2% | 10.0% | 8.2% | 3.7% | 5.15 | 5.80 | -0.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | BOS | 32 | 0 | 33 | 140 | 19 | 17 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 13.4% | 12.0% | 1.4% | 3.0% | 5.61 | 5.53 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 22 | MLB | BOS | 33 | 0 | 35 | 147 | 23 | 17 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.8% | 11.4% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 5.34 | 5.22 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB | BOS | 34 | 0 | 36 | 152 | 26 | 17 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.2% | 10.9% | 6.3% | 2.9% | 5.13 | 5.02 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | BOS | 15 | 0 | 16 | 68 | 9 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 13.4% | 12.0% | 1.4% | 3.0% | 5.61 | 5.53 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 22 | MLB | BOS | 24 | 0 | 25 | 106 | 17 | 12 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.8% | 11.4% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 5.34 | 5.22 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB | BOS | 29 | 0 | 30 | 127 | 22 | 14 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.2% | 10.9% | 6.3% | 2.9% | 5.13 | 5.02 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 69 | 0 | 72 | 304 | 48 | 35 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.8% | 11.3% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 5.31 | 4.82 | -0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 133 | 97 | 25 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.8% | 11.3% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 5.31 | 4.82 | +1.4 | ||
| Career | — | 73 | 15 | 165 | 711 | 100 | 71 | 30 | 21% | 2.3 | 14.0% | 10.0% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.04 | 5.48 | -0.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 88 | 18 | 200 | 862 | 121 | 86 | 36 | 21% | 2.3 | 14.0% | 10.0% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.04 | 5.48 | -0.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Wuilliams Rodriguez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.89 | 10.7% | 12.8% | 3.1% | — | 5.25 | 15.5% | 4.1% | 104 | -0.64 | — | — | — |
| Rickey Ramirez R 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 20 | SU | 5.00 | 11.3% | 12.9% | 2.2% | .267 | 3.47 | 17.7% | 6.7% | 60 | -1.53 | 3.12 | 164 | 89 |
| Eli Saul R 2027 · 5.49 FIP | 21 | SW | 5.49 | 12.6% | 14.2% | 3.0% | .305 | 5.48 | 13.8% | -2.9% | 98 | -0.01 | 5.40 | 157 | 86 |
| Johan Montero R 2025 · 4.89 FIP | 19 | SU | 4.89 | 13.5% | 12.8% | 2.4% | .292 | 3.42 | 16.5% | 5.3% | 64 | -1.47 | 2.82 | 106 | 86 |
| Austin Amaral R 2028 · 5.80 FIP | 22 | SU | 5.80 | 12.1% | 14.4% | 3.4% | .254 | 3.65 | 17.6% | 5.7% | 99 | -2.15 | 3.55 | 122 | 86 |
| Ismael Maldonado R 2026 · 5.87 FIP | 20 | SU | 5.87 | 9.8% | 16.4% | 2.8% | .280 | 6.60 | 13.5% | -3.6% | 89 | +0.73 | 5.87 | 119 | 85 |
| Sven Schüller R 2026 · 5.22 FIP | 20 | SU | 5.22 | 10.2% | 11.1% | 2.9% | .380 | 4.13 | 12.1% | 1.9% | 181 | -1.09 | 3.84 | 247 | 84 |
| Walker Weickel R 2027 · 5.38 FIP | 21 | SU | 5.38 | 13.1% | 11.7% | 3.5% | .357 | 3.92 | 15.6% | 8.1% | 188 | -1.46 | 3.76 | 273 | 84 |
| Alejandro Méndez R 2026 · 5.81 FIP | 20 | SU | 5.81 | 14.6% | 14.5% | 3.9% | .321 | 5.56 | 15.8% | -7.5% | 91 | -0.25 | 4.70 | 136 | 84 |
| Jose Miguel Gonzalez R 2025 · 4.84 FIP | 19 | SW | 4.84 | 10.3% | 11.1% | 2.2% | .315 | 5.19 | 13.7% | 0.7% | 36 | +0.35 | 4.84 | 223 | 83 |
| Eury Ramos R 2025 · 5.40 FIP | 19 | SW | 5.40 | 13.0% | 14.8% | 2.8% | .343 | 7.57 | 14.1% | 0.6% | 29 | +2.17 | 3.25 | 176 | 83 |
| David Landeta R 2026 · 5.11 FIP | 20 | SU | 5.11 | 14.5% | 15.3% | 2.4% | .353 | 3.86 | 16.8% | -0.4% | 64 | -1.25 | 3.64 | 111 | 83 |
| Riskiel Tineo R 2026 · 5.74 FIP | 20 | SU | 5.74 | 12.1% | 10.0% | 4.3% | .275 | 6.52 | 14.4% | 0.8% | 56 | +0.78 | 2.43 | 121 | 82 |
| Cole Ayers R 2028 · 5.49 FIP | 22 | SU | 5.49 | 13.0% | 15.4% | 2.8% | .305 | 3.96 | 21.2% | 10.1% | 152 | -1.53 | 3.52 | 171 | 82 |
| Rogelio Martinez R 2029 · 5.15 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.15 | 10.0% | 9.7% | 3.0% | .304 | 5.56 | 11.6% | 4.4% | 73 | +0.41 | 5.15 | 152 | 81 |
| Zac Reininger R 2028 · 4.79 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.79 | 11.8% | 9.8% | 2.6% | .286 | 3.36 | 21.1% | 13.6% | 125 | -1.43 | 2.46 | 259 | 81 |
| Sucre Valdez R 2027 · 5.83 FIP | 21 | SU | 5.83 | 13.6% | 10.4% | 4.7% | .280 | 3.48 | 18.3% | 12.1% | 77 | -2.35 | 2.82 | 102 | 81 |
| Jesus Rios R 2027 · 5.41 FIP | 21 | SU | 5.41 | 10.4% | 14.8% | 2.4% | .321 | 4.72 | 13.9% | 3.7% | 124 | -0.69 | 3.85 | 148 | 81 |
| Jesse Stallings R 2027 · 6.02 FIP | 21 | SU | 6.02 | 13.2% | 15.0% | 3.9% | .296 | 4.01 | 11.6% | 5.0% | 128 | -2.01 | 3.47 | 151 | 81 |
| German Taveras R 2028 · 4.78 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.78 | 13.6% | 13.5% | 2.0% | .265 | 7.24 | 10.9% | -4.8% | 47 | +2.46 | 4.78 | 108 | 81 |
| Jack Jasiak R 2028 · 5.01 FIP | 22 | SU | 5.01 | 12.1% | 14.2% | 2.1% | .288 | 4.05 | 19.1% | 11.1% | 179 | -0.96 | 3.25 | 248 | 81 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 34 | 14.4% | 11.7% | 1.16 | 5.48 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Eddie Butler ('18) | 4 | 62 | 13.3% | 9.8% | 1.49 | 5.74 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Wily Peralta ('22) | 7 | 71 | 16.1% | 9.8% | 1.22 | 4.66 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |