Jose Serrano
P
Fayetteville Woodpeckers
Age 22
RHP
6'2" / 212 lbs
A
peak 0.1 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION42 act + 14 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119109vR 100
ERA4.38
FIP4.38
K%22.8%
BB%9.6%
K-BB%13.2%
ROS IP14
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 56 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | DSL HOU Blue | 7 | 0 | 11 | 52 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.6 | 9.2% | 9.6% | -0.5% | 2.8% | 4.91 | 5.06 | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | DSL HOU Blue | 7 | 0 | 11 | 52 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.6 | 13.5% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 1.9% | 4.91 | 4.10 | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | DSL Astros Blue | 3 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.7% | 6.7% | 20.0% | 0.0% | 5.40 | 1.69 | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | DSL Astros Blue | 3 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.7% | 6.7% | 20.0% | 0.0% | 5.40 | 1.60 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | ROK | DSL Astros Orange | 13 | 12 | 48 | 203 | 46 | 22 | 1 | 92% | 3.7 | 15.4% | 13.5% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 2.62 | 3.99 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | ROK | DSL Astros Orange | 13 | 12 | 48 | 203 | 46 | 22 | 1 | 92% | 3.7 | 22.7% | 10.8% | 11.8% | 0.5% | 2.62 | 2.83 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 11 | 0 | 13 | 58 | 15 | 6 | 1 | 0% | 1.2 | 18.7% | 12.3% | 6.4% | 2.6% | 4.05 | 4.52 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 11 | 0 | 13 | 58 | 15 | 6 | 1 | 0% | 1.2 | 25.9% | 10.3% | 15.5% | 1.7% | 4.05 | 3.18 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | A+ | Asheville Tourists | 14 | 0 | 42 | 214 | 44 | 28 | 8 | 0% | 3.0 | 17.2% | 18.8% | -1.6% | 2.6% | 7.87 | 5.44 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | HOU | 13 | 0 | 14 | 60 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.8% | 9.6% | 13.2% | 2.9% | 4.38 | 4.38 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 22.8% | 9.6% | 13.2% | 2.9% | 4.38 | 4.38 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 22 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 56 | 274 | 58 | 34 | 10 | — | — | 21.0% | 12.3% | 8.7% | 3.6% | 7.00 | 5.18 | -0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | HOU | 19 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 20 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.5% | 9.0% | 14.5% | 2.9% | 4.29 | 4.23 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | HOU | 10 | 0 | 10 | 42 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.5% | 9.0% | 14.5% | 2.9% | 4.29 | 4.23 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 9 | 0 | 10 | 42 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.5% | 9.0% | 14.5% | 2.9% | 4.29 | 3.85 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 203 | 81 | 20 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.5% | 9.0% | 14.5% | 2.9% | 4.29 | 3.85 | +3.6 | ||
| Career | — | 48 | 12 | 118 | 542 | 88 | 81 | 10 | 25% | 2.5 | 16.2% | 14.9% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 4.96 | 4.66 | +1.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 81 | 20 | 200 | 919 | 148 | 137 | 17 | 25% | 2.5 | 16.2% | 14.9% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 4.96 | 4.66 | +1.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jose Serrano (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.38 | 22.8% | 9.6% | 2.9% | — | 4.23 | 23.5% | 14.5% | 20 | -0.15 | — | — | — |
| Kyle Zurak R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.96 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 2.6% | .302 | 3.48 | 16.7% | 7.5% | 121 | -0.48 | 3.28 | 181 | 91 |
| Luis Romero R 2027 · 4.50 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.50 | 22.1% | 11.9% | 3.2% | .367 | 4.16 | 21.6% | 12.5% | 132 | -0.34 | 3.99 | 293 | 85 |
| Clark Beeker R 2027 · 4.04 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.04 | 20.0% | 7.1% | 3.2% | .270 | 4.35 | 11.6% | 6.4% | 244 | +0.31 | 4.04 | 287 | 83 |
| Cody Palmquist R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.04 | 21.9% | 9.0% | 3.0% | .278 | 5.78 | 14.7% | 7.1% | 62 | +1.74 | 4.04 | 104 | 83 |
| Addison Russ R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.90 | 22.2% | 7.9% | 3.1% | .324 | 3.02 | 25.6% | 17.5% | 121 | -0.88 | 2.96 | 194 | 83 |
| J.T. Hintzen R 2026 · 3.20 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.20 | 20.1% | 7.0% | 1.7% | .303 | 4.45 | 24.1% | 15.1% | 123 | +1.25 | 3.20 | 205 | 83 |
| Michael Gomez R 2026 · 3.38 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.38 | 22.6% | 9.2% | 1.9% | .283 | 3.78 | 17.9% | 8.3% | 110 | +0.40 | 3.33 | 286 | 82 |
| Austin Hutchison R 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.05 | 19.7% | 6.0% | 3.4% | .340 | 5.20 | 18.7% | 9.2% | 213 | +1.15 | 3.60 | 235 | 82 |
| Ryan Conroy R 2028 · 3.86 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.86 | 22.2% | 9.8% | 2.5% | .353 | 4.73 | 19.3% | 6.7% | 54 | +0.87 | 3.86 | 106 | 82 |
| Sam Delaplane R 2026 · 3.18 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.18 | 24.6% | 7.7% | 2.1% | .342 | 3.15 | 32.7% | 23.4% | 128 | -0.03 | 3.11 | 194 | 81 |
| Kevin Coulter R 2026 · 3.27 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.27 | 21.0% | 7.4% | 1.8% | .287 | 4.31 | 16.1% | 7.6% | 92 | +1.04 | 3.27 | 128 | 81 |
| Zac Ryan R 2027 · 3.74 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.74 | 20.5% | 10.9% | 1.8% | .233 | 3.92 | 21.6% | 6.9% | 124 | +0.18 | 3.74 | 184 | 80 |
| Daniel Bies R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.96 | 24.5% | 6.8% | 3.8% | .339 | 3.22 | 20.3% | 11.0% | 89 | -0.74 | 3.22 | 115 | 80 |
| Kyle Zimmer R 2027 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.89 | 21.8% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .293 | 4.63 | 20.4% | 9.0% | 33 | +0.74 | 2.08 | 276 | 80 |
| Chris Gau R 2025 · 4.76 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.76 | 20.0% | 8.6% | 4.1% | .290 | 3.23 | 29.5% | 23.5% | 37 | -1.53 | 2.88 | 211 | 80 |
| Ian Koenig R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.55 | 20.0% | 6.6% | 2.4% | .310 | 5.84 | 14.4% | 5.9% | 225 | +2.29 | 3.55 | 244 | 80 |
| Ben Anderson R 2027 · 5.05 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.05 | 19.8% | 9.4% | 4.4% | .309 | 3.93 | 16.2% | 7.7% | 147 | -1.12 | 3.71 | 361 | 80 |
| Owen Holt R 2027 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.89 | 20.7% | 10.2% | 2.3% | .258 | 4.52 | 18.7% | 6.4% | 107 | +0.63 | 3.89 | 145 | 80 |
| Tyler Mitzel R 2027 · 4.21 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.21 | 24.1% | 12.0% | 3.0% | .245 | 4.19 | 22.4% | 14.3% | 96 | -0.02 | 3.95 | 142 | 79 |
| Parker Curry R 2027 · 3.68 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.68 | 22.5% | 8.2% | 2.6% | .341 | 4.68 | 18.6% | 11.6% | 193 | +1.00 | 3.68 | 256 | 79 |