Jose Serrano — OGILVIE

Jose Serrano P Fayetteville Woodpeckers

Age 22 RHP 6'2" / 212 lbs A peak 0.2 · 2030

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 14 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.88

FIP4.88

K%20.8%

BB%12.2%

K-BB%8.6%

ROS IP14

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 14 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL HOU Blue	7	0	11	52	7	4	1	0%	1.6	9.2%	9.6%	-0.5%	2.7%	4.91	5.04	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	DSL HOU Blue	7	0	11	52	7	4	1	0%	1.6	13.5%	7.7%	5.8%	1.9%	4.91	4.10	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	3	0	3	15	4	1	0	0%	1.1	26.7%	6.7%	20.0%	0.0%	5.40	1.69	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	3	0	3	15	4	1	0	0%	1.1	26.7%	6.7%	20.0%	0.0%	5.40	1.69	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	DSL Astros Blue	3	0	3	15	4	1	0	0%	1.1	26.7%	6.7%	20.0%	0.0%	5.40	1.60	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Orange	13	12	48	203	46	22	1	92%	3.7	15.4%	13.5%	1.9%	0.8%	2.62	3.94	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Orange	13	12	48	203	46	22	1	92%	3.7	15.4%	13.5%	1.9%	0.8%	2.62	3.94	—
2024	20	ROK RAW	DSL Astros Orange	13	12	48	203	46	22	1	92%	3.7	22.7%	10.8%	11.8%	0.5%	2.62	2.83	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	0	13	58	15	6	1	0%	1.2	18.7%	12.3%	6.4%	2.7%	4.05	4.55	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	0	13	58	15	6	1	0%	1.2	18.7%	12.3%	6.4%	2.7%	4.05	4.55	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	11	0	13	58	15	6	1	0%	1.2	25.9%	10.3%	15.5%	1.7%	4.05	3.18	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	18	1	58	280	57	36	8	6%	3.2	16.3%	17.7%	-1.4%	1.9%	6.48	5.04	—
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	18	1	58	280	57	36	8	6%	3.2	16.3%	17.7%	-1.4%	1.9%	6.48	5.04	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	ROK RAW	HOU	3	0	9	38	7	2	0	0%	3.0	18.4%	5.3%	13.2%	0.0%	3.00	2.21	—
2026	22	A RAW	HOU	13	1	42	200	44	30	3	8%	3.2	22.0%	15.0%	7.0%	1.5%	6.00	3.97	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	HOU	2	0	7	42	6	4	5	0%	3.6	14.3%	9.5%	4.8%	11.9%	13.50	9.63	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	HOU	56	0	59	250	54	27	7	0%	1.1	21.8%	11.0%	10.8%	2.9%	4.70	4.62	-0.0
2028	24	MLB MLE	HOU	58	0	61	256	58	26	7	0%	1.0	22.4%	10.2%	12.3%	2.9%	4.54	4.45	+0.1
2029	25	MLB MLE	HOU	59	0	62	260	59	25	7	0%	1.0	22.9%	9.7%	13.2%	2.9%	4.42	4.35	+0.1
2030	26	MLB MLE	HOU	59	0	62	260	60	25	7	0%	1.0	23.1%	9.7%	13.4%	2.9%	4.37	4.33	+0.2
2031	27	MLB MLE	HOU	58	0	61	256	59	25	7	0%	1.0	23.1%	9.7%	13.3%	2.9%	4.37	4.37	+0.1
2027	23	MLB CTX	HOU	28	0	29	122	27	13	4	0%	1.0	21.8%	11.0%	10.8%	2.9%	4.70	4.62	-0.0
2028	24	MLB CTX	HOU	40	0	42	177	40	18	5	0%	1.1	22.4%	10.2%	12.3%	2.9%	4.54	4.45	+0.0
2029	25	MLB CTX	HOU	48	0	50	211	48	21	6	0%	1.0	22.9%	9.7%	13.2%	2.9%	4.42	4.35	+0.1
2030	26	MLB CTX	HOU	51	0	54	228	53	22	7	0%	1.1	23.1%	9.7%	13.4%	2.9%	4.37	4.33	+0.1
2031	27	MLB CTX	HOU	52	0	55	232	54	23	7	0%	1.1	23.1%	9.7%	13.3%	2.9%	4.37	4.37	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		219	0	230	970	221	97	28	0%	1.0	22.8%	10.0%	12.8%	2.9%	4.45	4.02	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	192	84	24	0%	1.1	22.8%	10.0%	12.8%	2.9%	4.45	4.02	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		52	13	134	608	96	90	10	25%	2.6	15.9%	14.8%	1.0%	1.6%	4.70	4.54	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		78	19	200	907	144	135	15	25%	2.6	15.9%	14.8%	1.0%	1.6%	4.70	4.54	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jose Serrano (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.88	20.8%	12.2%	2.9%	—	4.47	22.4%	12.1%	181	-0.41	—	—	—
Kyle Zurak R 2017 · 3.96 FIP	22	SU	3.96	21.2%	9.4%	2.6%	.302	3.42	16.7%	7.5%	121	-0.54	3.20	181	86
Luis Romero R 2017 · 5.00 FIP	23	SU	5.00	22.1%	11.9%	4.1%	.367	4.26	21.6%	12.5%	132	-0.74	4.00	293	84
Yunior Montero R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	22	SW	4.82	16.9%	14.1%	2.5%	.276	4.58	21.5%	6.2%	91	-0.24	3.65	127	82
Tyler Santana R 2021 · 4.28 FIP	23	SU	4.28	20.3%	15.1%	1.8%	.333	4.37	16.0%	5.7%	259	+0.09	3.37	399	82
Zac Ryan R 2017 · 3.83 FIP	23	SU	3.83	20.5%	10.9%	2.0%	.233	3.93	21.6%	6.9%	124	+0.10	3.83	184	82
Eccel Correa R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	20	SW	4.39	19.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.316	4.41	14.0%	2.2%	154	+0.02	3.96	189	81
Brandyn Sittinger R 2017 · 4.37 FIP	23	SU	4.37	22.2%	13.8%	2.5%	.324	3.97	21.2%	7.2%	72	-0.40	3.58	152	81
Alec Barger R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SW	4.55	21.7%	13.6%	2.8%	.289	4.17	21.3%	9.4%	148	-0.38	3.85	242	81
Ben Anderson R 2021 · 4.84 FIP	23	SW	4.84	19.8%	9.4%	4.0%	.309	4.02	16.2%	7.7%	147	-0.82	3.80	399	81
Joel Garcia R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	19	SW	4.26	18.4%	13.0%	1.9%	.341	3.88	16.7%	9.5%	72	-0.38	3.02	104	81
Jayson McKinley R 2017 · 4.39 FIP	23	SU	4.39	17.5%	11.4%	2.4%	.308	3.60	20.4%	11.3%	134	-0.79	2.35	173	80
Orlando Ortiz-Mayr R 2022 · 4.61 FIP	24	SU	4.61	21.0%	13.2%	2.9%	.341	4.74	15.7%	4.0%	343	+0.13	3.65	492	80
Josnier Parra R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	21	SU	4.56	15.9%	9.8%	2.9%	.319	5.01	12.1%	2.9%	118	+0.45	3.76	150	80
Junior Rincon R 2015 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	17.8%	13.8%	2.9%	.318	3.75	17.6%	5.1%	82	-1.18	3.52	113	80
Marc Davis R 2022 · 5.26 FIP	22	SU	5.26	20.7%	14.0%	3.9%	.151	4.87	17.1%	-0.3%	88	-0.39	4.02	111	79
Todd Peterson R 2021 · 5.11 FIP	23	SW	5.11	18.4%	10.3%	4.1%	.279	4.83	15.0%	4.3%	124	-0.28	4.45	175	79
Juan Mendez R 2021 · 4.45 FIP	22	SW	4.45	20.5%	14.2%	2.3%	.271	5.07	21.9%	6.1%	128	+0.62	3.69	156	79
Kyle Marman R 2019 · 3.97 FIP	22	SU	3.97	22.2%	12.8%	2.0%	.270	5.16	22.5%	8.4%	71	+1.19	3.97	117	79
Enrique De Los Rios R 2016 · 4.40 FIP	21	SU	4.40	16.4%	10.8%	2.4%	.289	3.85	13.6%	8.3%	126	-0.55	3.57	166	79
Junior Cerda R 2022 · 5.48 FIP	22	SU	5.48	16.9%	13.6%	3.8%	.277	4.56	19.3%	2.0%	68	-0.92	2.76	135	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.6	53	22.6%	10.1%	1.12	4.50
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68