Riskiel Tineo — OGILVIE

Riskiel Tineo P Jupiter Hammerheads

Age 23 RHP 6'3" / 190 lbs A

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 18 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 135127vR 119

ERA5.38

FIP5.38

K%17.4%

BB%12.3%

K-BB%5.1%

ROS IP18

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 18 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	19	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	13	1	32	125	29	2	1	8%	2.5	15.8%	2.0%	13.8%	0.9%	2.81	2.51	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	DSL Miami	13	1	32	125	29	2	1	8%	2.5	23.2%	1.6%	21.6%	0.8%	2.81	1.88	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	0	38	168	28	14	4	0%	1.7	12.1%	10.0%	2.0%	4.0%	3.76	5.54	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	0	38	168	28	14	4	0%	1.7	12.1%	10.0%	2.0%	4.0%	3.76	5.54	—
2023	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	0	38	168	28	14	4	0%	1.7	16.7%	8.3%	8.3%	2.4%	3.76	4.09	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	0	35	150	28	15	3	0%	1.5	13.2%	15.2%	-2.0%	4.3%	3.86	6.30	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	0	35	150	28	15	3	0%	1.5	13.2%	15.2%	-2.0%	4.3%	3.86	6.30	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	0	35	150	28	15	3	0%	1.5	18.7%	10.0%	8.7%	2.0%	3.86	3.90	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	30	1	46	227	46	24	9	3%	1.5	15.1%	12.7%	2.4%	5.7%	6.11	6.55	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	30	1	46	227	46	24	9	3%	1.5	15.1%	12.7%	2.4%	5.7%	6.11	6.55	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	30	1	46	227	46	24	9	3%	1.5	20.3%	10.6%	9.7%	4.0%	6.11	5.22	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	3	0	5	24	8	4	0	0%	1.7	—	—	—	—	7.20	—	—
YTD	23	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	3	0	5	24	8	4	0	0%	1.7	—	—	—	—	7.20	—	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A RAW	MIA	3	0	5	24	8	4	0	0%	1.7	33.3%	16.7%	16.7%	0.0%	7.20	2.40	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	MIA	40	0	42	178	34	20	6	0%	1.1	19.1%	11.2%	7.9%	3.2%	5.14	5.05	-0.2
2027	24	MLB CTX	MIA	17	0	18	76	15	8	2	0%	1.1	19.1%	11.2%	7.9%	3.2%	5.14	5.05	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		17	0	18	76	14	8	2	0%	1.1	19.1%	11.2%	7.9%	3.2%	5.14	4.67	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	156	89	22	0%	1.1	19.1%	11.2%	7.9%	3.2%	5.14	4.67	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		91	2	156	694	102	75	27	2%	1.7	14.7%	10.8%	3.9%	3.9%	4.38	5.38	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		117	3	200	890	131	96	35	2%	1.7	14.7%	10.8%	3.9%	3.9%	4.38	5.38	-1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Riskiel Tineo (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.38	17.4%	12.3%	3.3%	—	5.05	19.1%	7.9%	42	-0.33	—	—	—
Junior Rincon R 2015 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	17.8%	13.8%	2.9%	.318	3.75	17.6%	5.1%	82	-1.18	3.52	113	90
Jayson McKinley R 2017 · 4.39 FIP	23	SU	4.39	17.5%	11.4%	2.4%	.308	3.60	20.4%	11.3%	134	-0.79	2.35	173	88
Kasey Ford R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	23	SU	4.89	20.3%	14.5%	3.0%	.310	4.26	21.9%	5.8%	98	-0.63	2.53	114	88
Sean Isaac R 2016 · 4.27 FIP	23	SU	4.27	19.5%	12.3%	2.3%	.342	3.76	25.0%	10.7%	128	-0.51	3.27	155	88
Zack Hess R 2019 · 5.00 FIP	22	SU	5.00	18.1%	13.1%	3.2%	.232	5.47	22.9%	6.3%	50	+0.47	5.00	101	88
Kieran Lovegrove R 2017 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	17.9%	12.6%	3.2%	.273	4.46	19.3%	4.5%	76	-0.46	3.79	215	87
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	87
Michael Hobbs R 2022 · 4.54 FIP	23	SU	4.54	17.3%	12.9%	2.3%	.232	4.48	20.1%	3.9%	158	-0.06	4.14	184	87
Anyelo Leclerc R 2015 · 5.00 FIP	23	SU	5.00	16.2%	9.8%	3.7%	.326	4.65	15.9%	6.1%	96	-0.35	4.65	140	87
Alaska Abney R 2023 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	18.8%	13.8%	3.0%	.301	3.89	17.4%	7.9%	104	-1.03	3.38	207	86
Stephen Perakslis R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	24	SU	4.54	14.6%	9.9%	2.6%	.254	3.99	16.9%	9.9%	190	-0.55	3.07	211	86
Jason Ruffcorn R 2021 · 4.74 FIP	23	SU	4.74	16.6%	14.2%	2.3%	.297	4.69	17.6%	4.2%	136	-0.05	4.01	280	86
Luis Eusebio R 2019 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	18.2%	10.6%	3.7%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	4.79	131	86
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	85
Jacinto Arredondo R 2021 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	14.4%	12.7%	2.6%	.310	4.89	15.7%	5.0%	50	-0.04	4.89	101	85
Todd Peterson R 2021 · 5.11 FIP	23	SW	5.11	18.4%	10.3%	4.1%	.279	4.83	15.0%	4.3%	124	-0.28	4.45	175	85
Bubba Hall R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SU	4.30	15.2%	10.9%	2.0%	.237	3.19	20.2%	13.9%	68	-1.11	3.19	101	85
Everhett Hazelwood R 2022 · 5.23 FIP	23	SU	5.23	13.8%	12.2%	3.2%	.306	6.51	18.7%	2.9%	63	+1.28	5.23	117	85
Jake Johansen R 2015 · 5.34 FIP	24	SU	5.34	15.8%	12.8%	3.6%	.351	4.14	13.6%	3.0%	114	-1.20	3.65	162	85
Davison Palermo R 2023 · 4.32 FIP	23	SU	4.32	19.0%	12.4%	2.3%	.246	5.02	18.8%	6.8%	174	+0.70	4.32	218	84

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	30	18.6%	11.5%	1.25	5.21
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Jharel Cotton ('22)	1.2	58	19.8%	9.2%	1.59	4.50
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86