Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 22 | ROK | FCL Nationals | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.0% | 0.0% | 25.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0.99 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | ROK | FCL Nationals | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.0% | 0.0% | 25.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 1.10 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 0 | 42 | 175 | 38 | 13 | 3 | 0% | 1.6 | 15.2% | 10.9% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 3.67 | 4.41 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 0 | 42 | 175 | 38 | 13 | 3 | 0% | 1.6 | 21.7% | 7.4% | 14.3% | 1.7% | 3.67 | 3.15 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | 42 | 0 | 68 | 264 | 72 | 14 | 4 | 0% | 1.6 | 20.2% | 6.3% | 13.9% | 1.7% | 2.78 | 3.12 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | 42 | 0 | 68 | 264 | 72 | 14 | 4 | 0% | 1.6 | 27.3% | 5.3% | 22.0% | 1.5% | 2.78 | 2.36 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | 5 | 0 | 6 | 27 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0% | 1.2 | 18.5% | 7.4% | 11.1% | 3.7% | 3.00 | 4.51 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | 5 | 0 | 6 | 27 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0% | 1.2 | 18.5% | 7.4% | 11.1% | 3.7% | 3.00 | 4.60 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | WSH | 40 | 0 | 42 | 175 | 40 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.7% | 8.8% | 13.9% | 2.9% | 4.27 | 4.27 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | WSH | 39 | 0 | 41 | 173 | 39 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.8% | 8.9% | 13.9% | 3.0% | 4.29 | 4.31 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | WSH | 14 | 0 | 15 | 63 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.8% | 8.9% | 13.9% | 3.0% | 4.29 | 4.31 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 14 | 0 | 15 | 63 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.8% | 8.9% | 13.9% | 3.0% | 4.29 | 3.93 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 187 | 80 | 27 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.8% | 8.9% | 13.9% | 3.0% | 4.29 | 3.93 | +3.4 | ||
| Career | — | 75 | 0 | 118 | 474 | 87 | 38 | 9 | 0% | 1.6 | 18.3% | 7.9% | 10.4% | 2.0% | 3.06 | 3.64 | +2.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 127 | 0 | 200 | 806 | 148 | 64 | 16 | 0% | 1.6 | 18.3% | 7.9% | 10.4% | 2.0% | 3.06 | 3.64 | +4.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Bubba Hall (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.27 | 22.7% | 8.8% | 2.9% | — | 4.31 | 22.8% | 13.9% | 41 | +0.04 | — | — | — |
| Kaleb Bowman R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.80 | 22.0% | 7.5% | 2.9% | .333 | 4.41 | 18.1% | 6.6% | 151 | +0.61 | 3.74 | 185 | 91 |
| Jason Stoffel R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.54 | 23.4% | 10.1% | 2.1% | .267 | 3.70 | 27.2% | 19.2% | 59 | +0.16 | 3.54 | 103 | 91 |
| Matt Pushard R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.77 | 24.1% | 8.9% | 2.9% | .242 | 3.56 | 22.5% | 12.4% | 100 | -0.21 | 3.05 | 205 | 89 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.91 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.5% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.01 | 3.21 | 161 | 88 |
| Shawn Armstrong R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.11 | 22.1% | 9.2% | 3.1% | .282 | 3.23 | 26.9% | 17.2% | 144 | -0.88 | 1.79 | 647 | 88 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.46 | 23.1% | 9.3% | 2.1% | .244 | 3.76 | 18.9% | 11.1% | 168 | +0.30 | 3.23 | 253 | 87 |
| Colton Murray R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.04 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .295 | 4.19 | 21.8% | 13.1% | 41 | +0.15 | 3.43 | 187 | 87 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.34 | 23.4% | 11.6% | 3.2% | .273 | 4.52 | 18.7% | 7.1% | 88 | +0.18 | 3.57 | 187 | 87 |
| Jack Hartman R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.36 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 3.5% | .310 | 4.40 | 17.6% | 5.6% | 46 | +0.04 | 3.42 | 161 | 86 |
| Nick Altermatt R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.51 | 23.2% | 8.5% | 4.2% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.25 | 121 | 86 |
| Kyle Winkler R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.60 | 23.1% | 8.7% | 2.5% | .234 | 3.53 | 18.4% | 8.3% | 43 | -0.07 | 2.96 | 114 | 86 |
| Joe Broussard R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.84 | 23.5% | 7.9% | 3.1% | .316 | 3.66 | 21.1% | 12.0% | 95 | -0.18 | 2.61 | 304 | 86 |
| Jarret Whorff R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.81 | 21.6% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .316 | 6.96 | 13.7% | 6.1% | 26 | +3.15 | 3.81 | 233 | 86 |
| Jose Rafael De Paula R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.46 | 19.9% | 9.8% | 3.3% | .278 | 5.02 | 22.7% | 10.3% | 89 | +0.56 | 2.69 | 315 | 86 |
| Simon Castro R 2027 · 3.16 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.16 | 26.4% | 8.5% | 2.2% | .320 | 3.55 | 26.0% | 17.6% | 128 | +0.39 | 2.85 | 185 | 85 |
| Fernery Ozuna R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.97 | 22.4% | 8.7% | 3.0% | .324 | 5.77 | 19.5% | 6.0% | 49 | +1.80 | 3.97 | 157 | 85 |
| Jaye Chapman R 2028 · 3.36 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.36 | 21.6% | 8.5% | 1.8% | .276 | 4.03 | 20.3% | 11.3% | 85 | +0.67 | 3.27 | 150 | 84 |
| Jackson Hicks R 2025 · 3.94 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.94 | 22.6% | 10.5% | 2.6% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 116 | 84 |
| Jeff Johnson R 2026 · 3.12 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.12 | 21.9% | 9.6% | 1.2% | .284 | 3.59 | 23.6% | 8.0% | 55 | +0.47 | 2.49 | 160 | 84 |
| Blake Treinen R 2027 · 3.10 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.10 | 23.2% | 9.3% | 1.4% | .314 | 2.59 | 26.4% | 19.2% | 223 | -0.51 | 1.51 | 544 | 84 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 41 | 22.7% | 8.8% | 1.13 | 4.28 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| Carlos Torres ('17) | 3 | 71 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 0.97 | 3.77 |
| Jim Johnson ('18) | 4 | 63 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 0.90 | 4.19 |
| Zach McAllister ('18) | 4 | 57 | 24.8% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 3.63 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |