Leuris Portorreal

Leuris Portorreal P Fredericksburg Nationals

Age 20 RHP 6'3" / 160 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 1.2 · 2031

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 26 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 139131vR 123

ERA5.59

FIP5.59

K%11.0%

BB%11.1%

K-BB%-0.1%

ROS IP27

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 26 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$3M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF2525

CTRL5050

CMD3030

K†3045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2034	Arb-1	$1M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-2	$1M	—	—	—
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	11	11	36	162	29	10	2	100%	3.2	12.2%	7.7%	4.5%	1.7%	4.79	3.99	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	11	11	36	162	29	10	2	100%	3.2	12.2%	7.7%	4.5%	1.7%	4.79	3.99	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Nationals	11	11	36	162	29	10	2	100%	3.2	17.9%	6.2%	11.7%	1.2%	4.79	3.04	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	13	11	52	230	40	21	5	85%	4.0	11.8%	11.4%	0.4%	3.1%	3.83	5.26	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	13	11	52	230	40	21	5	85%	4.0	11.8%	11.4%	0.4%	3.1%	3.83	5.26	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	FCL Nationals	13	11	52	230	40	21	5	85%	4.0	17.4%	9.1%	8.3%	2.2%	3.83	4.03	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	11	6	40	183	31	12	5	55%	3.7	11.5%	8.2%	3.3%	2.9%	5.13	4.75	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	11	6	40	183	31	12	5	55%	3.7	11.5%	8.2%	3.3%	2.9%	5.13	4.75	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	FCL Nationals	11	6	40	183	31	12	5	55%	3.7	16.9%	6.6%	10.4%	2.7%	5.13	4.07	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	20	13	65	281	49	24	4	65%	3.2	12.9%	10.1%	2.8%	1.9%	4.87	4.30	—
YTD	20	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	20	13	65	281	49	24	4	65%	3.2	12.9%	10.1%	2.8%	1.9%	4.87	4.30	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	A RAW	WSH	20	13	65	281	49	24	4	65%	3.2	17.4%	8.5%	8.9%	1.4%	4.87	3.49	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	WSH	14	14	66	281	38	30	8	100%	4.8	13.7%	10.7%	3.0%	2.9%	5.36	5.29	-0.3
2028	22	MLB MLE	WSH	14	14	70	295	47	30	8	100%	5.0	15.9%	10.2%	5.8%	2.9%	5.11	5.00	-0.1
2029	23	MLB MLE	WSH	14	14	72	306	53	30	9	100%	5.2	17.3%	9.8%	7.5%	2.8%	4.92	4.81	+0.1
2030	24	MLB MLE	WSH	13	13	74	313	57	30	9	100%	5.7	18.1%	9.6%	8.6%	2.8%	4.79	4.70	+0.2
2031	25	MLB MLE	WSH	13	13	75	317	59	30	9	100%	5.8	18.5%	9.4%	9.1%	2.8%	4.70	4.65	+0.2
2032	26	MLB MLE	WSH	13	13	75	317	59	30	9	100%	5.8	18.7%	9.4%	9.3%	2.8%	4.65	4.62	+0.2
2033	27	MLB MLE	WSH	12	12	74	312	58	30	9	100%	6.2	18.7%	9.5%	9.2%	2.8%	4.66	4.66	+0.2
2034	28	MLB MLE	WSH	12	12	72	303	56	29	9	100%	6.0	18.6%	9.6%	9.0%	2.9%	4.71	4.75	+0.1
2035	29	MLB MLE	WSH	11	11	69	290	53	29	9	100%	6.2	18.3%	9.8%	8.5%	3.1%	4.81	4.88	+0.0
2036	30	MLB MLE	WSH	11	11	64	272	49	28	9	100%	5.9	18.0%	10.1%	7.8%	3.3%	4.96	5.05	-0.1
2027	21	MLB CTX	WSH	7	7	33	139	19	15	4	100%	4.7	13.7%	10.7%	3.0%	2.9%	5.36	5.29	-0.1
2028	22	MLB CTX	WSH	10	10	51	215	34	22	6	100%	5.1	15.9%	10.2%	5.8%	2.9%	5.11	5.00	-0.1
2029	23	MLB CTX	WSH	11	11	61	258	45	25	7	100%	5.5	17.3%	9.8%	7.5%	2.8%	4.92	4.81	+0.1
2030	24	MLB CTX	WSH	12	12	66	279	51	27	8	100%	5.5	18.1%	9.6%	8.6%	2.8%	4.79	4.70	+0.2
2031	25	MLB CTX	WSH	12	12	69	291	54	27	8	100%	5.8	18.5%	9.4%	9.1%	2.8%	4.70	4.65	+0.2
2032	26	MLB CTX	WSH	12	12	70	296	55	28	8	100%	5.8	18.7%	9.4%	9.3%	2.8%	4.65	4.62	+0.2
2033	27	MLB CTX	WSH	12	12	70	296	55	28	8	100%	5.8	18.7%	9.5%	9.2%	2.8%	4.66	4.66	+0.2
2034	28	MLB CTX	WSH	11	11	68	287	53	28	8	100%	6.2	18.6%	9.6%	9.0%	2.9%	4.71	4.75	+0.1
2035	29	MLB CTX	WSH	11	11	65	274	50	27	8	100%	5.9	18.3%	9.8%	8.5%	3.1%	4.81	4.88	+0.0
2036	30	MLB CTX	WSH	10	10	61	258	46	26	8	100%	6.1	18.0%	10.1%	7.8%	3.3%	4.96	5.05	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		107	107	615	2595	463	253	76	100%	5.7	17.9%	9.7%	8.1%	2.9%	4.83	4.43	+3.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	151	82	25	100%	5.7	17.9%	9.7%	8.1%	2.9%	4.83	4.43	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		55	41	192	856	104	82	20	75%	3.5	12.2%	9.6%	2.6%	2.4%	4.63	4.60	+0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		57	43	200	890	108	85	21	75%	3.5	12.2%	9.6%	2.6%	2.4%	4.63	4.60	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Leuris Portorreal (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.59	11.0%	11.1%	3.0%	—	5.03	15.7%	5.5%	209	-0.56	—	—	—
Juan Gomez R 2017 · 5.39 FIP	20	SP-	5.39	10.9%	12.6%	2.9%	.345	3.58	11.2%	-0.1%	61	-1.81	3.58	113	87
Miguel Toscano R 2023 · 5.80 FIP	17	SP	5.80	10.6%	10.4%	4.2%	.288	4.40	11.9%	0.7%	142	-1.40	3.58	183	84
Abel Duarte R 2015 · 4.84 FIP	21	SP-	4.84	12.5%	10.3%	2.7%	.306	3.93	13.9%	6.7%	79	-0.91	3.19	127	84
Felix Cepeda R 2019 · 5.78 FIP	19	SP-	5.78	11.5%	14.6%	3.3%	.297	5.81	17.0%	-6.4%	71	+0.03	3.58	204	84
Yondrei Rojas R 2023 · 4.59 FIP	20	SP-	4.59	14.0%	11.2%	2.3%	.312	4.10	20.9%	10.2%	123	-0.49	2.60	240	83
Miguel Vinicio R 2019 · 5.69 FIP	19	SP-	5.69	13.8%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	3.99	16.9%	1.4%	47	-1.70	3.63	164	82
Andres German R 2017 · 4.97 FIP	20	SW	4.97	8.7%	10.4%	2.3%	.302	3.04	13.4%	7.0%	73	-1.93	3.04	116	82
Gary Gill Hill R 2023 · 4.91 FIP	18	SP	4.91	14.1%	12.2%	2.6%	.356	4.59	16.1%	9.8%	380	-0.32	4.32	417	82
Tyler Gough R 2023 · 5.48 FIP	19	SP	5.48	13.4%	13.3%	3.3%	.297	3.58	20.0%	6.5%	158	-1.90	3.12	188	82
Jorge Cespedes R 2016 · 4.88 FIP	20	SW	4.88	11.2%	12.2%	2.1%	.284	4.14	12.9%	5.6%	107	-0.74	3.47	153	81
Nicholas Economos R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	20	SP-	4.95	15.3%	10.7%	3.3%	.233	5.28	10.4%	0.6%	57	+0.33	4.40	223	81
Josh Swales R 2022 · 5.51 FIP	20	SP-	5.51	11.8%	14.6%	2.9%	.356	5.64	15.1%	1.4%	66	+0.13	5.51	129	81
Logan Sendelbach R 2015 · 5.31 FIP	21	SP	5.31	11.4%	9.2%	3.7%	.300	4.58	12.8%	4.3%	297	-0.73	4.14	340	81
Yovanny Cabrera R 2021 · 5.18 FIP	20	SP	5.18	14.5%	13.7%	2.9%	.238	5.21	18.5%	1.6%	149	+0.03	4.39	243	80
Alejandro Manzano R 2022 · 4.89 FIP	20	SP-	4.89	14.8%	8.6%	3.5%	.347	4.81	15.6%	6.5%	199	-0.08	4.28	273	80
Mayky Perez R 2017 · 5.34 FIP	20	SP-	5.34	8.6%	11.6%	2.7%	.321	4.42	22.9%	7.0%	84	-0.92	3.44	160	80
Jairo Garcia R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	20	SP-	4.47	16.4%	11.3%	2.4%	.298	5.25	10.1%	-1.9%	96	+0.78	3.88	148	80
Alain Pena R 2023 · 5.48 FIP	20	SP-	5.48	14.2%	13.9%	3.3%	.222	5.68	15.6%	3.5%	191	+0.20	3.66	266	80
Moises Ruiz R 2019 · 5.62 FIP	20	SP-	5.62	8.7%	12.8%	3.0%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	4.57	104	80
Yenrri Rojas R 2023 · 5.23 FIP	19	SP-	5.23	10.2%	12.7%	2.5%	.369	4.22	14.0%	3.3%	230	-1.01	3.27	313	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.7	67	17.4%	9.8%	1.13	4.89
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Luis Cessa ('23)	2.1	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99