Leuris Portorreal P Fredericksburg Nationals
+0.0 WAR
Age 20 RHP 6'3" / 160 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.5 · 2030
ERA4.48
FIP4.48
xFIP
SIERA
K%21.3%
BB%9.2%
K-BB%12.1%
IP37
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2030
K†5060

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

YearAge LvlTeam GGSIPBF KBBHR K%BB%HR% ERAFIP WAR
202317ROKDSL Nationals1111361622910212.2%7.7%1.7%4.793.98+0.4
202418ROKFCL Nationals1311522304021511.8%11.4%3.2%3.835.29-0.2
202519ROKFCL Nationals116401833112511.5%8.2%2.4%5.134.47+0.2
▸ 2026 Season
202620AFredericksburg Nationals33135080211.8%0.0%5.2%3.554.95-0.0
ROS20MLBWSH37371553314521.3%9.2%3.0%4.484.48+0.2
2026 Total20MLBWSH492054114720.0%7.0%3.2%4.244.60+0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
202721MLBWSH39391633614521.9%8.9%2.9%4.404.35+0.3
202822MLBWSH40401713914522.9%8.4%2.9%4.274.18+0.4
202923MLBWSH42421774214523.7%8.2%2.8%4.154.06+0.4
203024MLBWSH43431824414524.2%8.0%2.8%4.053.98+0.5
203125MLBWSH44441844514524.6%7.8%2.8%3.973.92+0.5
203226MLBWSH44441844614524.8%7.8%2.8%3.933.90+0.5
203327MLBWSH43431824514524.8%7.8%2.8%3.923.91+0.5
203428MLBWSH43431804514524.8%7.9%2.8%3.933.94+0.5
203529MLBWSH42421764314524.6%8.0%2.9%3.963.98+0.5
203630MLBWSH40401714214524.4%8.1%2.9%4.014.04+0.4
203731MLBWSH39391654013524.2%8.2%3.0%4.074.12+0.4
203832MLBWSH37371583813523.9%8.3%3.1%4.154.20+0.3
203933MLBWSH36361513613523.6%8.5%3.2%4.244.30+0.3
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career383114062574541711.8%8.6%2.7%4.434.68+1.0
/ 200 IP5444200891105772411.8%8.6%2.7%4.434.68+1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Profile at Match Age Next 3 Yrs Career
CompAgeRole FIPK%BB%HR/BFBABIP FIPK%K-BB%IP ΔFIPLow FIPIPMatch
Leuris Portorreal (OGILVIE) 4.48 21.3%9.2%3.0% 4.19 22.9%14.4%121 -0.29
Brandon Komar R 2026 · 4.74 FIP 20 SU 4.74 17.7%11.6%3.0%.327 4.93 16.7%5.7%198 +0.19 3.03 538 94
Eccel Correa R 2026 · 4.34 FIP 20 SU 4.34 19.4%11.9%2.5%.316 4.01 14.2%3.6%122 -0.33 3.99 157 94
Logan Lombana R 2027 · 4.63 FIP 21 SU 4.63 16.9%10.0%3.1%.315 4.01 15.7%8.1%123 -0.62 3.80 155 93
Blake Workman R 2026 · 4.00 FIP 20 SU 4.00 18.9%9.5%2.4%.307 3.94 23.8%19.5%105 -0.06 3.11 213 92
Austin Mason R 2027 · 4.41 FIP 21 SU 4.41 17.1%11.6%2.4%.289 4.06 16.2%6.5%151 -0.35 3.60 179 92
Tyler Gray R 2027 · 4.49 FIP 21 SU 4.49 18.2%11.7%2.6%.333 4.39 11.9%3.6%72 -0.10 4.39 119 91
Josnier Parra R 2027 · 4.53 FIP 21 SU 4.53 15.9%9.8%2.8%.319 4.37 9.8%1.9%70 -0.16 3.79 102 91
Logan Gragg R 2026 · 4.12 FIP 20 SU 4.12 17.4%9.5%2.3%.343 5.21 15.2%8.2%202 +1.09 4.12 412 91
Audry Lugo R 2026 · 4.05 FIP 20 SU 4.05 18.5%11.4%2.0%.247 5.31 15.6%-0.4%77 +1.26 4.05 113 90
Aneudy Duarte R 2026 · 4.79 FIP 20 SU 4.79 17.1%11.7%3.0%.295 4.26 102 90
Jordany Ventura R 2025 · 4.08 FIP 19 SU 4.08 16.8%8.9%2.3%.264 4.08 219 89
Joshua Quezada R 2026 · 4.38 FIP 20 SU 4.38 18.3%11.7%2.4%.293 4.30 15.8%7.4%35 -0.08 3.53 116 89
Saul Teran R 2026 · 5.16 FIP 20 SU 5.16 17.5%9.8%4.2%.333 3.86 20.8%8.7%94 -1.30 2.28 126 89
Felix Arronde R 2026 · 4.42 FIP 20 SU 4.42 20.2%12.1%2.7%.275 4.19 16.1%7.1%239 -0.23 4.15 337 89
Mike Morrison R 2028 · 4.86 FIP 22 SU 4.86 17.3%10.7%3.4%.280 4.00 19.0%7.1%128 -0.86 3.32 145 88
Ulices Campos R 2026 · 4.60 FIP 20 SU 4.60 17.9%11.5%2.8%.253 5.37 12.0%1.0%65 +0.77 4.11 153 88
Alec Kisena R 2025 · 4.01 FIP 19 SU 4.01 17.6%11.8%1.7%.306 3.55 248 88
Deretd Parra R 2025 · 5.29 FIP 19 SU 5.29 16.8%10.9%4.1%.295 3.82 15.7%2.3%83 -1.47 2.79 161 88
Yeuris Jimenez R 2026 · 4.42 FIP 20 SU 4.42 16.3%9.6%2.7%.290 4.24 18.1%4.6%162 -0.18 3.31 276 88
Michael Dominguez R 2026 · 4.09 FIP 20 SU 4.09 17.9%11.1%2.0%.289 5.70 20.1%5.0%280 +1.61 3.82 383 88

Contract

ESTIMATED  ·  service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2031
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2036
First FA Year   2037
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2026MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031Arb-3$0.9M+0.5$2M+$1M
2032Ext / FA-deal$0.9M+0.5$2M+$1M
2033Ext / FA-deal$1.0M+0.5$2M+$1M
2034Ext / FA-deal$0.6M+0.5$3M+$2M
2035Ext / FA-deal$1M+0.5$3M+$2M
2036Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $4M $12M +$8M