Leuris Portorreal

P Fredericksburg Nationals

Age 21 RHP 6'3" / 160 lbs A peak 0.7 · 2030

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	19	ROKWSH	11	6	40	5.13	4.07	16.9%	6.6%	—	K 11.5% · BB 8.2% · FIP 4.75
2026	20	AWSH	20	13	65	4.87	3.50	17.4%	8.5%	—	K 12.9% · BB 10.1% · FIP 4.30
2027PROJ	21	MLBWSH	—	—	0	5.58	5.58	10.8%	11.5%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBWSH	4	4	22	5.31	5.21	14.0%	10.8%	0.0
2029PROJ73% MLB	23	MLBWSH	6	6	33	5.07	4.96	16.0%	10.4%	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff25Control50Command30

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 0.9, comp-based) · star 3% · didn't stick 92%

CompsJuan Gomez (age 20) · Ramon Santos (age 21) · Abel Duarte (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 139131vR 123

ERA5.58

FIP5.58

K%10.8%

BB%11.5%

K-BB%-0.7%

Proj IP42

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 42 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF2525

CTRL5050

CMD3030

K†3045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	11	11	36	162	29	10	2	100%	3.2	12.2%	7.7%	4.5%	1.7%	4.79	3.99	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Nationals	11	11	36	162	29	10	2	100%	3.2	17.9%	6.2%	11.7%	1.2%	4.79	3.04	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	13	11	52	230	40	21	5	85%	4.0	11.8%	11.4%	0.4%	3.1%	3.83	5.26	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	13	11	52	230	40	21	5	85%	4.0	11.8%	11.4%	0.4%	3.1%	3.83	5.26	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	FCL Nationals	13	11	52	230	40	21	5	85%	4.0	17.4%	9.1%	8.3%	2.2%	3.83	4.03	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	11	6	40	183	31	12	5	55%	3.7	11.5%	8.2%	3.3%	2.9%	5.13	4.75	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	11	6	40	183	31	12	5	55%	3.7	11.5%	8.2%	3.3%	2.9%	5.13	4.75	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	FCL Nationals	11	6	40	183	31	12	5	55%	3.7	16.9%	6.6%	10.4%	2.7%	5.13	4.07	—
2026	20	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	20	13	65	281	49	24	4	65%	3.2	12.9%	10.1%	2.8%	1.9%	4.87	4.30	—
2026	20	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	20	13	65	281	49	24	4	65%	3.2	12.9%	10.1%	2.8%	1.9%	4.87	4.30	—
2026	20	A RAW	Fredericksburg Nationals	20	13	65	281	49	24	4	65%	3.2	17.4%	8.5%	8.9%	1.4%	4.87	3.50	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	WSH	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	10.8%	11.5%	-0.7%	2.8%	5.58	5.58	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	WSH	9	9	45	188	26	20	5	100%	5.0	14.0%	10.8%	3.2%	2.8%	5.31	5.21	+0.1
2029	23	MLB MLE	WSH	8	8	45	188	30	20	5	100%	5.6	16.0%	10.4%	5.6%	2.8%	5.07	4.96	+0.2
2030	24	MLB MLE	WSH	8	8	45	188	32	19	5	100%	5.6	17.2%	10.1%	7.1%	2.8%	4.91	4.82	+0.3
2031	25	MLB MLE	WSH	7	7	41	172	31	17	5	100%	5.8	17.9%	10.0%	7.9%	2.7%	4.80	4.74	+0.3
2032	26	MLB MLE	WSH	7	7	41	172	31	17	5	100%	5.8	18.1%	9.9%	8.2%	2.7%	4.75	4.72	+0.3
2033	27	MLB MLE	WSH	7	7	40	168	30	17	5	100%	5.7	18.1%	10.0%	8.1%	2.8%	4.75	4.75	+0.3
2028	22	MLB CTX	WSH	4	4	22	93	13	10	3	100%	5.5	14.0%	10.8%	3.2%	2.8%	5.31	5.21	+0.0
2029	23	MLB CTX	WSH	6	6	33	139	22	15	4	100%	5.5	16.0%	10.4%	5.6%	2.8%	5.07	4.96	+0.2
2030	24	MLB CTX	WSH	7	7	37	156	27	16	4	100%	5.3	17.2%	10.1%	7.1%	2.8%	4.91	4.82	+0.2
2031	25	MLB CTX	WSH	6	6	36	152	27	15	4	100%	6.0	17.9%	10.0%	7.9%	2.7%	4.80	4.74	+0.3
2032	26	MLB CTX	WSH	6	6	37	156	28	16	4	100%	6.2	18.1%	9.9%	8.2%	2.7%	4.75	4.72	+0.3
2033	27	MLB CTX	WSH	6	6	37	156	28	16	4	100%	6.2	18.1%	10.0%	8.1%	2.8%	4.75	4.75	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		35	35	201	850	146	86	23	100%	5.8	17.1%	10.2%	7.0%	2.8%	4.90	4.46	+2.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	145	85	23	100%	5.7	17.1%	10.2%	7.0%	2.8%	4.90	4.46	+2.2
Career	—	MLE		55	41	192	856	104	82	20	75%	3.5	12.2%	9.6%	2.6%	2.4%	4.63	4.60	+1.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		57	43	200	890	108	85	21	75%	3.5	12.2%	9.6%	2.6%	2.4%	4.63	4.60	+1.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AFredericksburg Nationals · 65 IPFIP 3.49 → 4.30 (+0.81)K% 17.4% → 12.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.44%	—	×0.740	12.90%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.54%	—	×1.180	10.08%
HR / BF /BF	1.42%	÷1.000	×1.300	1.85%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.49 → 4.30, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKFCL Nationals · 40 IPFIP 4.00 → 4.75 (+0.75)K% 16.9% → 11.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.94%	—	×0.680	11.52%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.56%	—	×1.250	8.20%
HR / BF /BF	2.73%	÷1.328	×1.400	2.88%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 166).

Result: FIP 4.00 → 4.75, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKFCL Nationals · 52 IPFIP 3.98 → 5.26 (+1.28)K% 17.4% → 11.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.39%	—	×0.680	11.83%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.13%	—	×1.250	11.41%
HR / BF /BF	2.17%	÷0.975	×1.400	3.12%

Result: FIP 3.98 → 5.26, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKDSL Nationals · 36 IPFIP 3.05 → 3.99 (+0.94)K% 17.9% → 12.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.90%	—	×0.680	12.17%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.17%	—	×1.250	7.72%
HR / BF /BF	1.23%	÷1.008	×1.400	1.71%

Result: FIP 3.05 → 3.99, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Leuris Portorreal (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.58	10.8%	11.5%	2.8%	—	5.00	15.8%	5.3%	134	-0.58	—	—	—
Juan Gomez R 2017 · 5.39 FIP	20	SP-	5.39	10.9%	12.6%	2.9%	.345	3.58	11.2%	-0.1%	61	-1.81	3.58	113	88
Ramon Santos R 2016 · 5.00 FIP	21	SP-	5.00	12.7%	10.6%	3.0%	.323	4.18	15.6%	5.5%	199	-0.82	3.74	355	86
Abel Duarte R 2015 · 4.84 FIP	21	SP-	4.84	12.5%	10.3%	2.7%	.306	3.93	13.9%	6.7%	79	-0.91	3.19	127	85
Luis Mateo R 2015 · 5.17 FIP	22	SP-	5.17	11.4%	14.7%	2.1%	.315	5.67	15.0%	-1.3%	55	+0.50	4.52	112	84
Abel Brito R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	21	SP-	4.79	15.7%	12.6%	2.6%	.310	5.66	13.2%	-8.6%	70	+0.87	4.13	147	83
Will Childers R 2023 · 5.41 FIP	22	SP-	5.41	11.8%	12.1%	3.2%	.305	4.43	19.5%	8.9%	150	-0.98	3.60	209	82
Logan Sendelbach R 2015 · 5.31 FIP	21	SP	5.31	11.4%	9.2%	3.7%	.300	4.58	12.8%	4.3%	297	-0.73	4.14	340	82
Dillon Drabble R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	21	SP-	4.60	11.2%	11.6%	1.8%	.370	—	—	—	—	—	3.41	110	82
Edelvis Perez R 2024 · 5.19 FIP	19	SP	5.19	11.9%	13.8%	2.4%	.267	5.56	17.9%	-1.9%	62	+0.37	5.19	103	82
Moises Ruiz R 2019 · 5.62 FIP	20	SP-	5.62	8.7%	12.8%	3.0%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	4.57	104	81
Aaron Cook R 2002 · 4.83 FIP	23	SP-	4.83	9.1%	8.4%	2.6%	.301	4.27	7.8%	0.7%	304	-0.56	3.65	1,406	81
Luke Prokopec R 2000 · 4.49 FIP	22	SP-	4.49	13.6%	10.2%	2.3%	.262	5.44	14.2%	7.6%	210	+0.95	4.49	231	81
Justin Germano R 2004 · 4.49 FIP	21	SP-	4.49	14.7%	12.8%	1.8%	.377	4.12	13.8%	7.3%	133	-0.37	3.73	405	81
Tyler McKay R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	21	SP-	5.32	15.1%	10.2%	4.0%	.262	4.64	13.2%	2.2%	106	-0.68	3.10	275	80
Danny Flatt R 2024 · 6.12 FIP	20	SP-	6.12	14.5%	15.7%	4.1%	.304	5.81	13.0%	-1.9%	76	-0.31	5.37	122	80
Luis Hernandez R 2022 · 4.94 FIP	21	SP	4.94	16.7%	14.0%	2.7%	.311	5.62	21.4%	4.1%	64	+0.68	4.09	109	80
Luis Rodriguez R 2019 · 4.96 FIP	19	SP-	4.96	12.8%	12.5%	2.5%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	4.96	111	80
Jeremiah Burke R 2019 · 4.88 FIP	21	SP-	4.88	11.9%	9.3%	2.9%	.330	3.78	15.7%	8.1%	34	-1.10	3.78	137	80
David Rodriguez R 2024 · 4.50 FIP	22	SP-	4.50	13.5%	11.7%	1.9%	.316	3.85	16.9%	9.9%	125	-0.65	3.80	184	80
Alfredo Romero R 2024 · 4.45 FIP	21	SP-	4.45	12.5%	12.9%	1.4%	.368	4.82	15.6%	-1.2%	162	+0.37	4.40	256	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.5	42	16.0%	10.4%	1.07	5.03
Tom Martin ('07)	1.6	53	15.8%	10.1%	1.02	4.92
Vic Darensbourg ('05)	1.5	50	17.0%	9.3%	1.01	4.96
Travis Miller ('02)	1.3	45	16.3%	9.2%	0.91	5.05
Mike Munoz ('89-'00, 1 WAR*)	1.8	46	17.6%*	10.2%*	0.93*	4.46*
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*
Dennis Powell ('85-'93, -2 WAR*)	1.7	49	17.6%*	10.1%*	1.18*	5.31*