Juan Sierra

OF Fayetteville Woodpeckers

Age 21 R/R 6'2" / 208 lbs A HR -6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	19	ROKHOU	122	.289/.415/.402	2	1	70	—	.229/.314/.324
2026	20	AHOU	266	.236/.309/.414	10	7	55	—	.193/.248/.320
2026	20	ROKHOU	15	.000/.267/.000	0	0	-38	—	.000/.133/.000
2027PROJ0% MLB	21	MLBHOU	391	.207/.268/.333	9	7	69	-0.4
2028PROJ34% MLB	22	MLBHOU	113	.214/.276/.347	3	2	73	-0.2
2029PROJ48% MLB	23	MLBHOU	199	.217/.280/.355	5	4	77	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A

ISO70

wRC+41

Z-Con%41

Speed40

wOBA38

K%37

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 92%

CompsJohan Mieses (age 21) · Brian Sanchez (age 21) · Jhonkensy Noel (age 20)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 271 proj PA

wRC+†69

AVG/OBP/SLG.205 / .266 / .330

PA271

HR6

SB5

K%28

BB%7

ISO126

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$3M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 31 / POW 48

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT31

scouting grade only

POWER48

scouting grade only

EYE51

scouting grade only

SPEED52

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	17	ROK	DSL Astros Blue	—	150	121	21	3	0	4	25	29	3	1	1	174	329	298	626	124	191	19	17	297	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	DSL Astros Blue	—	195	163	44	10	0	9	22	40	7	10	3	270	380	497	877	227	299	21	11	383	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK	FCL Astros	—	122	97	28	5	0	2	19	26	2	1	2	289	415	402	817	113	356	21	16	363	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	266	237	56	10	1	10	22	70	3	7	6	236	309	414	723	177	286	26	8	318	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK	FCL Astros	—	15	11	0	0	0	0	4	4	0	0	0		267		267			27	27	186	-38	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	—	150	128	13	2	0	2	18	35	3	1	1	102	228	164	392	62	116	23	12	188	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	—	195	170	27	6	0	4	15	50	7	10	3	159	255	265	520	106	189	26	8	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	—	122	105	24	4	0	2	11	38	2	1	2	229	314	324	637	95	287	31	9	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	266	244	47	8	1	7	15	95	3	7	6	193	248	320	568	127	263	36	6	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	—	15	13	0	0	0	0	2	6	0	0	0		133		133			40	13	112	-38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	—	150	128	13	2	0	2	18	35	3	1	1	102	228	164	392	62	120	23	12	188	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Astros Blue	—	150	121	21	3	0	4	25	29	3	1	1	174	329	298	626	124	191	19	17	297	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	—	195	170	27	6	0	4	15	50	7	10	3	159	255	265	520	106	193	26	8	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Astros Blue	—	195	163	44	10	0	9	22	40	7	10	3	270	380	497	877	227	299	21	11	383	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	—	122	105	24	4	0	2	11	38	2	1	2	229	314	324	637	95	319	31	9	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	FCL Astros	—	122	97	28	5	0	2	19	26	2	1	2	289	415	402	817	113	356	21	16	363	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	281	256	47	8	1	7	18	101	3	7	6	184	245	305	550	121	263	36	6	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A RAW	2 teams	—	281	248	56	10	1	10	26	74	3	7	6	226	307	395	702	169	274	26	9	311	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	—	150	128	13	2	0	2	18	35	3	1	1	102	228	164	392	62	116	23	12	188	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	—	195	171	27	6	0	4	15	50	7	10	3	158	255	263	518	105	189	26	8	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	—	122	108	24	4	0	2	11	38	2	1	2	222	314	315	628	93	287	31	9	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	281	258	47	8	1	7	18	101	3	7	6	182	245	302	548	120	249	36	6	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	—	195	171	27	6	0	4	15	50	7	10	3	158	255	263	518	105	189	26	8	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	—	122	108	24	4	0	2	11	38	2	1	2	222	314	315	628	93	287	31	9	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	281	258	47	8	1	7	18	101	3	7	6	182	245	302	548	120	249	36	6	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	21	MLB MLE	HOU	0%	391	358	74	14	2	9	26	109	4	7	3	207	268	333	601	126	267	28	7	270	69	-15	+0	+0	-2	+8	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	HOU	34%	330	302	64	12	2	8	22	90	3	6	2	211	274	344	618	133	269	27	7	277	73	-10	+0	+0	-2	+7	-0.5
2029	23	MLB MLE	HOU	48%	411	375	81	15	2	11	29	110	4	8	3	215	278	352	631	137	271	27	7	282	77	-11	+0	+0	-2	+9	-0.5
2030	24	MLB MLE	HOU	53%	465	424	92	17	2	13	33	123	5	9	3	218	282	358	640	140	273	26	7	286	80	-11	+1	+0	-3	+10	-0.4
2031	25	MLB MLE	HOU	55%	495	451	98	18	2	14	36	130	5	10	4	219	284	361	646	142	274	26	7	288	81	-11	+0	+0	-3	+11	-0.3
2032	26	MLB MLE	HOU	56%	511	464	102	19	2	14	37	133	5	10	4	220	286	363	649	143	275	26	7	290	82	-11	+0	+0	-3	+11	-0.2
2033	27	MLB MLE	HOU	55%	517	469	102	19	2	14	38	135	5	10	4	219	285	361	646	141	274	26	7	288	81	-12	+0	+0	-3	+11	-0.3
2034	28	MLB MLE	HOU	55%	516	468	102	19	2	14	38	136	5	9	4	218	283	356	639	139	273	26	7	286	79	-13	+0	-1	-3	+11	-0.5
2028	22	MLB CTX	HOU	34%	113	103	22	4	1	3	8	31	1	2	1	214	276	347	623	133	273	27	7	279	73	-4	+0	+0	-1	+2	-0.2
2029	23	MLB CTX	HOU	48%	199	181	40	8	1	5	14	53	2	4	1	217	280	355	635	137	275	27	7	284	77	-5	+0	+0	-1	+4	-0.2
2030	24	MLB CTX	HOU	53%	245	223	49	10	1	6	17	65	3	5	2	220	284	360	644	140	277	27	7	288	80	-6	+0	+0	-1	+5	-0.2
2031	25	MLB CTX	HOU	55%	271	247	54	11	1	7	19	71	3	5	2	222	286	364	650	142	278	26	7	290	81	-6	+0	+0	-2	+6	-0.2
2032	26	MLB CTX	HOU	56%	284	258	57	11	1	8	21	74	3	5	2	223	288	366	654	143	279	26	7	292	82	-6	+0	+0	-2	+6	-0.1
2033	27	MLB CTX	HOU	55%	284	258	57	11	1	8	21	74	3	5	2	222	287	363	650	141	278	26	7	290	81	-6	+0	+0	-2	+6	-0.2
2034	28	MLB CTX	HOU	55%	282	256	56	11	1	7	21	74	3	5	2	220	285	358	643	139	277	26	7	288	79	-7	+0	-0	-2	+6	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1678	1526	335	66	7	44	121	442	18	31	12	220	285	358	643	139	278	26	7	288	73	-40	+1	-0	-10	+36	-1.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	591	130	26	3	17	47	171	7	12	5	220	285	360	646	140	278	26	7	288	73	-16	+1	-0	-4	+14	-0.5
Career	—	MLE		—	4264	3860	803	149	16	109	313	1156	50	86	38	208	276	340	616	132	264	27	7	276	73	-89	+3	-1	-21	+76	-3.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	588	123	23	2	17	48	176	8	13	6	209	278	342	620	133	265	27	7	276	73	-16	+1	-0	-4	+14	-0.6

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	4.1	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
/162	664	20	13	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Chris Heiseylast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,758 PA	2.6	1,758	62	25	238	296	413	-18	+3	3.0	3.2
/162	664	23	9	-6.7	+1.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#3Jake Powell'30-'45 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,767 PA	4.2	2,767	22	65	248*	294*	373*	-14	-2	0.2	2.0
/162	664	5	16	-3.3	-0.5	0.0	pk7: 4
#4Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	2.4	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
/162	664	19	6	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#5Karim Garcia'95-'04 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,560 PA	2.3	1,560	66	10	231*	269*	413*	-16	-3	-1.0	0.1
/162	664	28	4	-6.7	-1.3	-0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	2.9	1,950	52	37	217	278	356	-12	+0	-0.6	-0.3
/162	664	18	12	-4.0	+0.0	-0.2	pk7: 0
#6Rip Russell'39-'47 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,522 PA	2.3	1,522	29	4	236*	279*	389*	-16	-12	-2.7	-2.7
/162	664	13	2	-6.9	-5.1	-1.2	pk7: -3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Juan Sierra (OGILVIE)	21	26→31	43→48	47→52	51	205/266/330	124	267	6	5	28%	7%	69	-0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Johan Mieses 2016 · A	21	40→33	45→55	52→50	40	204/250/330	126	265	12	14	28%	5%	61	-1.5	189/238/351	162	266	20	4	37%	5%	63	-1.4	192/268/358	166	237	23	7	30%	7%	73	-0.4
✕Brian Sanchez 2017 · A	21	37	43→50	45	42	189/257/303	113	261	11	4	31%	7%	59	-1.7	184/237/278	94	281	8	4	35%	6%	45	-2.7	133/186/201	68	218	4	0	39%	6%	6	-1.0
✕Jhonkensy Noel 2021 · A	20	40→42	43→55	47→45	42	202/266/309	107	265	11	7	28%	6%	63	-1.3	222/273/394	172	288	23	5	31%	5%	86	+0.3	200/264/382	182	250	25	1	31%	6%	78	-0.3
✕Jabari Henry 2013 · A	22	41	46→55	49→45	44	208/269/341	133	270	13	6	28%	7%	72	-0.7	206/283/358	152	269	17	6	28%	9%	81	-0.1	191/276/354	163	247	19	6	30%	10%	74	-0.4
✕Oliver Carrillo 2023 · A	21	42→28	46→45	52→45	49	210/293/339	129	282	13	7	29%	10%	80	-0.1	187/296/309	122	278	13	4	34%	12%	76	-0.4	158/271/272	114	242	14	3	37%	11%	58	-0.8
✕Kevin Padlo 2017 · A	21	37→42	47→55	46→50	47	190/279/325	135	275	14	9	34%	10%	73	-0.6	191/275/329	138	281	14	8	34%	9%	72	-0.7	196/269/361	165	267	20	12	33%	8%	75	-0.3
✕Clint Coulter 2014 · A	21	41→43	43→50	45→40	42	205/271/311	106	279	10	5	29%	7%	65	-1.2	214/288/349	135	274	14	4	26%	7%	81	-0.1	200/266/338	137	245	16	4	25%	5%	67	-0.4
✕Sean Coyle 2013 · A	21	40→38	45→50	54→50	38	199/264/327	128	286	12	13	34%	6%	67	-1.1	211/271/364	153	307	18	14	36%	6%	78	-0.3	204/267/368	165	294	22	15	37%	7%	75	-0.2
✕Bryan Ramos 2022 · A	20	41→42	45→50	49→50	42	206/277/332	126	281	12	8	30%	7%	73	-0.6	219/279/362	143	273	18	5	26%	6%	80	-0.1	214/275/354	140	261	19	5	25%	6%	74	-0.4
✕Brayan Buelvas 2023 · A	21	36→45	47→50	50→55	40	190/251/322	132	249	14	13	30%	6%	61	-1.5	196/259/315	119	279	11	18	32%	7%	62	-1.4	205/266/334	130	290	12	14	32%	7%	66	-0.8
✕Iverson Leonardo 2023 · A	21	37	44→45	49→50	40	186/254/299	114	273	12	9	35%	7%	57	-1.8	197/278/292	95	346	7	8	41%	8%	64	-1.3	149/272/225	76	351	3	4	50%	12%	46	-0.6
✕Sherten Apostel 2020 · A	21	38→35	47→45	45→40	45	195/272/324	128	273	15	4	33%	9%	70	-0.9	207/271/335	128	319	14	4	37%	7%	71	-0.8	208/271/342	134	323	16	0	38%	7%	70	-0.4
✕Jeter Downs 2019 · A	21	42→41	43→50	52→55	44	208/273/317	109	269	11	18	26%	7%	68	-1.0	210/276/360	150	277	17	18	29%	7%	79	-0.2	176/270/315	139	246	15	26	33%	9%	66	-0.6
✕Luis Baez 2024 · A	20	38→36	47→50	44→45	41	197/261/332	135	272	14	6	32%	7%	67	-1.1	208/253/329	121	296	13	9	33%	6%	62	-1.4	203/243/316	113	284	13	10	33%	5%	53	-1.0
✕Jhostynxon Garcia 2024 · A	21	38→44	41→50	52→50	43	182/258/286	104	279	7	9	35%	8%	55	-1.9	220/276/370	150	298	17	10	31%	6%	81	-0.1	226/279/379	153	297	20	9	30%	5%	81	-0.0
✕Allan Cerda 2021 · A	21	43→25	40→55	47→45	44	206/283/296	90	283	7	7	28%	7%	67	-1.1	185/280/351	166	286	19	5	39%	9%	80	-0.2	159/268/326	167	242	20	5	41%	10%	67	-0.7
✕Walking Cabrera 2022 · A	21	40→37	45	53→45	44	204/264/328	124	266	13	13	28%	7%	67	-1.1	198/252/302	104	295	10	8	34%	6%	56	-1.9	189/242/289	101	282	10	6	35%	6%	48	-1.5
✕Marino Campana 2019 · A	21	39→38	47→55	49→45	36	203/248/342	139	280	15	4	33%	4%	63	-1.3	196/242/310	114	326	11	6	41%	5%	54	-2.0	102/142/153	51	226	6	3	56%	4%	-22	-1.5
✕Yassel Pino 2023 · A	21	39	46→45	46→40	46	197/270/322	124	275	13	7	32%	9%	68	-1.0	196/256/301	105	259	10	6	27%	7%	57	-1.8	180/240/276	96	230	10	5	26%	6%	43	-1.2
✕Tyler Kolodny 2010 · A	22	41→37	44→45	49→50	41	202/273/319	117	276	11	8	30%	6%	69	-0.9	208/282/339	131	278	13	10	29%	6%	77	-0.3	207/286/352	145	264	16	10	27%	6%	79	-0.1

Juan Sierra

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps