Joan Ogando

P Asheville Tourists

Age 23 RHP 6'1" / 179 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	20	MIX2 levels	20	2	40	5.80	2.78	28.9%	12.3%	—	K 20.3% · BB 14.9% · FIP 3.98
2025	21	AHOU	25	13	95	4.07	3.58	27.2%	16.6%	—	K 20.1% · BB 19.6% · FIP 4.74
2026	22	A+HOU	25	0	37	14.35	6.53	26.9%	23.3%	—	K 20.7% · BB 26.8% · FIP 6.90
2027PROJ	23	MLBHOU	50	0	52	5.95	5.95	20.1%	20.0%	-0.8
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBHOU	36	0	38	5.62	5.51	20.9%	17.1%	-0.4
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBHOU	56	0	59	5.35	5.23	21.3%	15.3%	-0.4

Next 3 projected WAR -1.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control20Command35

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsJames Acuna (age 23) · Blake Quinn (age 23) · Will Varmette (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 146138vR 130

ERA5.95

FIP5.95

K%20.1%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%0.1%

Proj IP52

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL2020

CMD3535

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Orange	9	1	10	43	10	10	1	11%	1.1	23.3%	23.3%	0.0%	2.3%	1.74	5.36	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	DSL Astros Orange	9	1	10	43	10	10	1	11%	1.1	23.3%	23.3%	0.0%	2.3%	1.74	5.33	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	2	40	187	54	23	2	10%	2.0	20.3%	14.9%	5.4%	1.3%	5.80	3.98	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	2	40	187	54	23	2	10%	2.0	20.3%	14.9%	5.4%	1.3%	5.80	3.98	—
2024	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	2	40	187	54	23	2	10%	2.0	28.9%	12.3%	16.6%	1.1%	5.80	2.78	—
2025	21	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	25	13	95	416	113	69	5	52%	3.8	20.1%	19.6%	0.5%	1.6%	4.07	4.74	—
2025	21	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	25	13	95	416	113	69	5	52%	3.8	20.1%	19.6%	0.5%	1.6%	4.07	4.74	—
2025	21	A RAW	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	25	13	95	416	113	69	5	52%	3.8	27.2%	16.6%	10.6%	1.2%	4.07	3.58	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	25	0	37	223	60	52	7	0%	1.5	20.7%	26.8%	-6.1%	3.9%	14.35	6.90	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	25	0	37	223	60	52	7	0%	1.5	20.7%	26.8%	-6.1%	3.9%	14.35	6.90	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	Asheville Tourists	25	0	37	223	60	52	7	0%	1.5	26.9%	23.3%	3.6%	3.1%	14.35	6.53	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	HOU	50	0	52	220	44	44	7	0%	1.0	20.1%	20.0%	0.1%	3.0%	5.95	5.95	-0.8
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	HOU	83	0	88	370	77	63	11	0%	1.1	20.9%	17.1%	3.8%	3.0%	5.62	5.51	-0.9
2029	25	MLB MLE	HOU	84	0	89	375	80	57	11	0%	1.1	21.3%	15.3%	6.1%	2.9%	5.35	5.23	-0.7
2030	26	MLB MLE	HOU	84	0	89	375	81	56	11	0%	1.1	21.6%	14.8%	6.7%	3.0%	5.22	5.16	-0.6
2031	27	MLB MLE	HOU	83	0	87	369	80	54	11	0%	1.1	21.6%	14.7%	6.8%	3.0%	5.18	5.17	-0.6
2032	28	MLB MLE	HOU	81	0	85	358	77	53	11	0%	1.0	21.4%	14.9%	6.5%	3.1%	5.23	5.26	-0.7
2033	29	MLB MLE	HOU	77	0	81	342	72	52	11	0%	1.1	21.2%	15.1%	6.1%	3.3%	5.33	5.39	-0.8
2034	30	MLB MLE	HOU	72	0	76	321	73	47	11	0%	1.1	22.8%	14.6%	8.2%	3.5%	5.31	5.30	-0.6
2028	24	MLB CTX	HOU	36	0	38	160	33	27	5	0%	1.1	20.9%	17.1%	3.8%	3.0%	5.62	5.51	-0.4
2029	25	MLB CTX	HOU	56	0	59	249	53	38	7	0%	1.1	21.3%	15.3%	6.1%	2.9%	5.35	5.23	-0.4
2030	26	MLB CTX	HOU	67	0	70	296	64	44	9	0%	1.0	21.6%	14.8%	6.7%	3.0%	5.22	5.16	-0.5
2031	27	MLB CTX	HOU	71	0	75	317	68	47	10	0%	1.1	21.6%	14.7%	6.8%	3.0%	5.18	5.17	-0.5
2032	28	MLB CTX	HOU	71	0	75	317	68	47	10	0%	1.1	21.4%	14.9%	6.5%	3.1%	5.23	5.26	-0.6
2033	29	MLB CTX	HOU	70	0	74	312	66	47	10	0%	1.1	21.2%	15.1%	6.1%	3.3%	5.33	5.39	-0.7
2034	30	MLB CTX	HOU	67	0	70	296	67	43	10	0%	1.0	22.8%	14.6%	8.2%	3.5%	5.31	5.30	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		439	0	461	1945	420	293	60	0%	1.0	21.6%	15.1%	6.5%	3.1%	5.30	4.89	-1.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	182	127	26	0%	1.1	21.6%	15.1%	6.5%	3.1%	5.30	4.89	-0.8
Career	—	MLE		79	16	183	869	178	179	19	20%	2.3	20.5%	20.6%	-0.1%	2.1%	6.41	5.16	-5.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		86	18	200	951	195	196	20	20%	2.3	20.5%	20.6%	-0.1%	2.1%	6.41	5.16	-1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Joan Ogando (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.95	20.1%	20.0%	3.0%	—	5.30	21.2%	5.5%	265	-0.65	—	—	—
James Acuna R 2021 · 5.12 FIP	23	SU	5.12	21.3%	17.0%	3.0%	.302	4.33	19.4%	4.6%	60	-0.79	4.33	107	85
Blake Quinn R 2017 · 5.41 FIP	23	SW	5.41	16.9%	15.3%	3.3%	.328	4.42	17.1%	3.3%	48	-0.99	4.42	122	85
Will Varmette R 2024 · 5.06 FIP	21	SU	5.06	22.8%	19.3%	2.6%	.302	5.13	16.1%	2.3%	135	+0.07	4.69	182	83
Garrett Apker R 2023 · 6.24 FIP	23	SW	6.24	15.0%	18.8%	3.7%	.343	4.93	18.9%	5.2%	53	-1.31	4.01	101	82
Brett Lockwood R 2021 · 5.46 FIP	24	SU	5.46	16.2%	15.5%	3.2%	.312	4.58	11.0%	-6.3%	79	-0.88	4.24	132	82
Cole Percival R 2022 · 5.21 FIP	23	SU	5.21	15.4%	14.5%	2.9%	.297	4.27	17.9%	5.9%	182	-0.94	3.58	327	82
Hayden Snelsire R 2024 · 5.10 FIP	23	SU	5.10	18.9%	13.8%	3.4%	.272	4.28	20.0%	13.7%	135	-0.82	3.83	178	81
Junior Rincon R 2015 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	17.8%	13.8%	2.9%	.318	3.75	17.6%	5.1%	82	-1.18	3.52	113	81
Jordan Brink R 2016 · 5.96 FIP	23	SW	5.96	18.3%	19.2%	3.6%	.233	—	—	—	—	—	3.99	132	80
Hudson Leach R 2024 · 5.37 FIP	22	SU	5.37	20.5%	20.0%	2.7%	.261	4.54	20.9%	3.1%	71	-0.83	2.77	101	80
Morgan McSweeney R 2021 · 5.36 FIP	23	SU	5.36	21.9%	16.3%	3.7%	.295	5.15	18.5%	5.3%	93	-0.21	3.20	213	80
Luis Ledo R 2018 · 5.51 FIP	23	SU	5.51	17.1%	17.6%	3.0%	.329	3.65	20.8%	8.0%	85	-1.86	3.27	376	80
Jacob Morris R 2015 · 5.43 FIP	24	SU	5.43	18.0%	19.6%	2.5%	.218	4.77	18.7%	-2.4%	46	-0.66	4.77	102	80
Cole Aker R 2019 · 5.60 FIP	22	SW	5.60	19.5%	20.6%	2.8%	.239	6.17	12.0%	-9.9%	28	+0.57	3.60	147	80
Willian Suarez R 2021 · 5.23 FIP	23	SU	5.23	20.4%	17.3%	3.0%	.329	5.13	25.4%	9.5%	128	-0.10	3.99	219	80
Sal Biasi R 2019 · 5.22 FIP	23	SU	5.22	20.1%	15.8%	3.3%	.295	7.66	15.3%	-0.2%	23	+2.44	4.68	188	80
Frank Martinez R 2024 · 5.90 FIP	22	SU	5.90	20.0%	21.5%	3.2%	.268	5.08	16.8%	3.7%	77	-0.82	3.30	135	80
Tommy DeJuneas R 2019 · 5.15 FIP	23	SU	5.15	20.8%	18.8%	2.6%	.324	5.65	13.7%	-3.9%	51	+0.50	3.93	178	79
Jon Keller R 2016 · 5.48 FIP	23	SW	5.48	15.3%	20.9%	1.9%	.265	3.84	8.9%	-2.9%	15	-1.64	3.64	156	79
Jake Eddington R 2024 · 5.02 FIP	23	SW	5.02	18.8%	24.1%	0.8%	.316	4.83	16.6%	-1.5%	105	-0.19	4.70	135	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.2	81	21.4%	15.6%	1.19	5.37
George Smith ('26-'30, -3 WAR*)	1.7	66	22.6%*	14.5%*	1.13*	5.29*
Touki Toussaint ('25)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.24	5.42
Tim Conroy ('78-'87, -3 WAR*)	2.3	78	20.8%*	13.6%*	1.12*	5.23*
Bob Gibson ('83-'87, -0 WAR*)	1.3	67	20.4%*	14.0%*	1.14*	4.52*
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Seth McClung ('09)	2.2	86	16.2%	13.1%	1.28	5.46