Sergio Villa
P
ACL Reds
Age 20
RHP
6'2" / 155 lbs
ROK
2026 ROS PROJECTION22 act + 16 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121112vR 103
ERA4.50
FIP4.50
K%22.4%
BB%9.9%
K-BB%12.4%
ROS IP16
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 38 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 18 | ROK | DSL Reds | 14 | 0 | 22 | 95 | 14 | 10 | 0 | 0% | 1.5 | 10.0% | 13.2% | -3.1% | 0.0% | 6.23 | 3.92 | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK | DSL Reds | 14 | 0 | 22 | 95 | 14 | 10 | 0 | 0% | 1.5 | 14.7% | 10.5% | 4.2% | 0.0% | 6.23 | 3.19 | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK | DSL Rojos | 12 | 3 | 29 | 129 | 28 | 17 | 4 | 25% | 2.4 | 14.8% | 16.5% | -1.7% | 4.5% | 5.65 | 6.38 | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK | DSL Rojos | 12 | 3 | 29 | 129 | 28 | 17 | 4 | 25% | 2.4 | 21.7% | 13.2% | 8.5% | 3.1% | 5.65 | 4.74 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 20 | ROK | ACL Reds | 13 | 0 | 22 | 112 | 25 | 18 | 4 | 0% | 1.7 | 15.2% | 20.1% | -4.9% | 5.0% | 8.06 | 7.11 | -0.7 |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | CIN | 15 | 0 | 16 | 66 | 15 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.4% | 9.9% | 12.4% | 3.0% | 4.50 | 4.50 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 22.4% | 9.9% | 12.4% | 3.0% | 4.50 | 4.50 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 20 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 38 | 178 | 40 | 25 | 6 | — | — | 22.3% | 13.8% | 8.6% | 3.4% | 6.59 | 6.03 | -0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | CIN | 19 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 19 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 9.4% | 13.5% | 3.0% | 4.41 | 4.36 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | CIN | 10 | 0 | 10 | 42 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.9% | 9.4% | 13.5% | 3.0% | 4.41 | 4.36 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 9 | 0 | 10 | 42 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 9.4% | 13.5% | 3.0% | 4.41 | 3.98 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 183 | 81 | 20 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 9.4% | 13.5% | 3.0% | 4.41 | 3.98 | +3.3 | ||
| Career | — | 39 | 3 | 73 | 336 | 46 | 56 | 11 | 8% | 1.9 | 13.6% | 16.7% | -3.2% | 3.4% | 6.56 | 5.93 | -0.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 107 | 8 | 200 | 925 | 125 | 155 | 31 | 8% | 1.9 | 13.6% | 16.7% | -3.2% | 3.4% | 6.56 | 5.93 | -1.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Sergio Villa (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.50 | 22.4% | 9.9% | 3.0% | — | 4.36 | 22.9% | 13.5% | 20 | -0.14 | — | — | — |
| Kyle Zurak R 2028 · 3.96 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.96 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 2.6% | .302 | 3.48 | 16.7% | 7.5% | 121 | -0.48 | 3.28 | 181 | 88 |
| Chris Gau R 2027 · 4.76 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.76 | 20.0% | 8.6% | 4.1% | .290 | 3.23 | 29.5% | 23.5% | 37 | -1.53 | 2.88 | 211 | 87 |
| Cody Palmquist R 2028 · 4.04 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.04 | 21.9% | 9.0% | 3.0% | .278 | 5.78 | 14.7% | 7.1% | 62 | +1.74 | 4.04 | 104 | 86 |
| Blake Workman R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.00 | 18.9% | 9.5% | 2.4% | .307 | 3.92 | 23.8% | 19.5% | 105 | -0.08 | 3.34 | 213 | 86 |
| Carlos Campos R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.43 | 20.4% | 10.7% | 3.1% | .304 | 5.57 | 15.3% | 8.1% | 19 | +1.14 | 4.43 | 134 | 86 |
| Sandy Lugo R 2027 · 3.86 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.86 | 20.7% | 9.5% | 2.4% | .352 | 3.94 | 23.6% | 12.5% | 119 | +0.08 | 3.28 | 146 | 86 |
| Michael Gomez R 2028 · 3.38 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.38 | 22.6% | 9.2% | 1.9% | .283 | 3.78 | 17.9% | 8.3% | 110 | +0.40 | 3.33 | 286 | 86 |
| Danny Dopico R 2027 · 3.87 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.87 | 25.4% | 10.8% | 2.8% | .333 | 3.98 | 22.8% | 8.1% | 173 | +0.11 | 3.00 | 318 | 86 |
| Addison Russ R 2028 · 3.90 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.90 | 22.2% | 7.9% | 3.1% | .324 | 3.02 | 25.6% | 17.5% | 121 | -0.88 | 2.96 | 194 | 86 |
| Kai Wynyard R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.41 | 21.1% | 9.1% | 3.5% | .269 | 4.09 | 16.5% | 3.9% | 138 | -0.32 | 3.29 | 240 | 85 |
| Enmanuel Marcano R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.32 | 21.1% | 8.4% | 3.5% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 138 | 85 |
| Osiris German R 2025 · 4.26 FIP | 19 | SU | 4.26 | 20.6% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .346 | 3.25 | 26.3% | 15.5% | 59 | -1.01 | 3.11 | 187 | 85 |
| Kendeglys Virguez R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.58 | 22.5% | 10.8% | 3.7% | .260 | 3.26 | 25.7% | 12.2% | 25 | -1.32 | 3.26 | 126 | 85 |
| Heath Holder R 2029 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.16 | 21.1% | 10.1% | 2.8% | .287 | 3.13 | 22.3% | 13.1% | 247 | -1.03 | 2.74 | 367 | 83 |
| Caleb Freeman R 2027 · 3.98 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.98 | 24.6% | 12.9% | 2.4% | .267 | 5.17 | 21.7% | 8.1% | 58 | +1.19 | 3.98 | 222 | 83 |
| David Garner R 2028 · 3.94 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.94 | 21.7% | 10.0% | 2.6% | .282 | 4.65 | 19.8% | 5.2% | 98 | +0.71 | 3.94 | 154 | 83 |
| Jhoanbert Cedeno R 2026 · 3.41 FIP | 20 | SU | 3.41 | 22.5% | 9.3% | 1.9% | .360 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 129 | 83 |
| Jake Elliott R 2027 · 3.82 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.82 | 19.2% | 7.1% | 2.6% | .353 | 3.81 | 18.1% | 10.0% | 202 | -0.01 | 3.10 | 354 | 83 |
| Jeff Bain R 2027 · 3.94 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.94 | 19.7% | 6.7% | 3.0% | .339 | 4.13 | 19.1% | 10.7% | 274 | +0.19 | 3.37 | 475 | 83 |
| Mason Fox R 2027 · 3.59 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.59 | 21.9% | 11.5% | 1.6% | .260 | 7.31 | 21.3% | 4.8% | 30 | +3.72 | 3.59 | 112 | 83 |