Sergio Villa — OGILVIE

Sergio Villa P ACL Reds

Age 20 RHP 6'2" / 155 lbs ROK

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 15 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134126vR 118

ERA5.30

FIP5.30

K%19.3%

BB%14.2%

K-BB%5.1%

ROS IP16

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 15 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	14	0	22	95	14	10	0	0%	1.5	10.0%	13.2%	-3.1%	0.0%	6.23	3.92	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	14	0	22	95	14	10	0	0%	1.5	10.0%	13.2%	-3.1%	0.0%	6.23	3.92	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Reds	14	0	22	95	14	10	0	0%	1.5	14.7%	10.5%	4.2%	0.0%	6.23	3.19	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Rojos	12	3	29	129	28	17	4	25%	2.4	14.8%	16.5%	-1.7%	4.4%	5.65	6.35	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Rojos	12	3	29	129	28	17	4	25%	2.4	14.8%	16.5%	-1.7%	4.4%	5.65	6.35	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	DSL Rojos	12	3	29	129	28	17	4	25%	2.4	21.7%	13.2%	8.5%	3.1%	5.65	4.74	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	14	0	24	117	26	18	4	0%	1.7	15.1%	19.2%	-4.1%	4.8%	7.50	6.89	—
YTD	20	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	14	0	24	117	26	18	4	0%	1.7	15.1%	19.2%	-4.1%	4.8%	7.50	6.89	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	ROK RAW	CIN	14	0	24	117	26	18	4	0%	1.7	22.2%	15.4%	6.8%	3.4%	7.50	5.05	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	CIN	26	0	27	114	23	14	3	0%	1.0	20.3%	12.6%	7.7%	2.9%	5.07	4.98	-0.1
2027	21	MLB CTX	CIN	12	0	13	55	11	7	2	0%	1.1	20.3%	12.6%	7.7%	2.9%	5.07	4.98	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		13	0	13	56	11	7	2	0%	1.0	20.3%	12.6%	7.7%	2.9%	5.07	4.60	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	165	105	30	0%	1.1	20.3%	12.6%	7.7%	2.9%	5.07	4.60	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		40	3	74	341	46	56	11	8%	1.9	13.6%	16.5%	-2.9%	3.3%	6.42	5.86	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		108	8	200	917	124	151	30	8%	1.9	13.6%	16.5%	-2.9%	3.3%	6.42	5.86	-1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Sergio Villa (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.30	19.3%	14.2%	3.0%	—	4.98	20.3%	7.7%	27	-0.32	—	—	—
Tyler Smith R 2018 · 5.30 FIP	22	SU	5.30	17.8%	14.3%	3.4%	.329	4.35	19.8%	7.8%	94	-0.95	3.44	121	86
Tommy DeJuneas R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	21	SU	4.72	19.1%	15.5%	2.3%	.357	4.59	20.8%	4.9%	100	-0.13	3.93	178	86
Will Kobos R 2018 · 5.58 FIP	20	SW	5.58	19.3%	16.0%	3.8%	.313	3.46	26.6%	11.6%	76	-2.12	2.44	139	85
Devon Fisher R 2016 · 4.39 FIP	20	SU	4.39	16.5%	12.5%	2.0%	.333	5.76	15.1%	0.9%	88	+1.37	4.39	102	85
Brandon Dufault R 2021 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	22.1%	15.9%	3.8%	.278	4.83	21.0%	4.2%	66	-0.49	4.38	152	85
Rolddy Muñoz R 2021 · 4.32 FIP	21	SU	4.32	21.4%	13.7%	2.4%	.342	3.54	21.1%	9.8%	149	-0.78	3.18	287	85
Jonathan Jimenez R 2023 · 5.41 FIP	19	SU	5.41	16.4%	16.2%	3.0%	.333	5.09	14.1%	2.2%	178	-0.32	3.49	189	85
Adam Ravenelle R 2015 · 4.32 FIP	22	SU	4.32	19.6%	14.8%	1.8%	.322	5.06	17.1%	4.3%	130	+0.74	4.32	165	85
Junior Rincon R 2015 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	17.8%	13.8%	2.9%	.318	3.75	17.6%	5.1%	82	-1.18	3.52	113	85
Luis Alvarado R 2018 · 5.24 FIP	21	SU	5.24	20.2%	12.4%	4.2%	.276	5.16	18.7%	4.4%	140	-0.08	4.89	162	84
Paul Gervase R 2022 · 4.91 FIP	22	SU	4.91	20.3%	16.2%	2.7%	.345	3.79	29.0%	15.6%	152	-1.12	3.38	209	84
Orlando Romero R 2017 · 4.53 FIP	20	SU	4.53	19.4%	14.8%	2.2%	.294	4.66	18.5%	6.7%	62	+0.13	3.92	162	84
Jeremy Beasley R 2017 · 4.71 FIP	21	SU	4.71	19.5%	11.6%	3.3%	.273	4.10	17.7%	8.7%	234	-0.61	3.17	337	83
Michael Brewer R 2021 · 4.30 FIP	20	SU	4.30	23.7%	16.2%	2.1%	.303	4.69	19.7%	6.3%	114	+0.39	3.14	144	83
Alejandro Méndez R 2021 · 5.70 FIP	20	SU	5.70	14.6%	14.5%	3.6%	.321	5.60	15.8%	-7.5%	91	-0.10	4.65	136	83
Kyle Hinton R 2018 · 4.17 FIP	21	SU	4.17	23.5%	15.0%	2.1%	.275	5.69	17.7%	-0.7%	75	+1.52	4.17	106	83
Jake Bird R 2018 · 4.59 FIP	22	SU	4.59	17.7%	13.0%	2.4%	.254	3.65	16.1%	4.9%	156	-0.94	3.06	523	83
Alexander Martinez R 2017 · 4.40 FIP	20	SU	4.40	17.1%	12.4%	2.1%	.337	3.35	21.3%	13.0%	87	-1.05	3.06	170	83
Kasey Ford R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	23	SU	4.89	20.3%	14.5%	3.0%	.310	4.26	21.9%	5.8%	98	-0.63	2.53	114	83
Jordan Mikel R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	22	SU	4.49	20.5%	12.5%	2.8%	.330	4.16	19.2%	9.0%	109	-0.33	3.04	195	83