Luis Morellis — OGILVIE

Luis Morellis P ACL Reds

Age 23 RHP 6'2" / 165 lbs ROK

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 19 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 136128vR 120

ERA5.44

FIP5.44

K%21.1%

BB%16.8%

K-BB%4.3%

ROS IP19

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 19 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	19	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	12	4	31	139	33	18	3	33%	2.6	16.1%	16.2%	-0.0%	2.9%	4.02	5.35	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	ACL Reds	12	4	31	139	33	18	3	33%	2.6	23.7%	12.9%	10.8%	2.2%	4.02	3.96	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	12	4	38	161	58	18	4	33%	3.1	24.5%	14.0%	10.5%	3.3%	3.35	4.60	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	12	4	38	161	58	18	4	33%	3.1	24.5%	14.0%	10.5%	3.3%	3.35	4.60	—
2024	20	ROK RAW	ACL Reds	12	4	38	161	58	18	4	33%	3.1	36.0%	11.2%	24.8%	2.5%	3.35	2.83	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	10	6	29	149	27	27	1	60%	2.9	12.3%	22.7%	-10.3%	0.8%	8.90	5.34	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	10	6	29	149	27	27	1	60%	2.9	12.3%	22.7%	-10.3%	0.8%	8.90	5.34	—
2025	21	ROK RAW	ACL Reds	10	6	29	149	27	27	1	60%	2.9	18.1%	18.1%	0.0%	0.7%	8.90	4.46	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	CIN	18	0	19	80	17	13	2	0%	1.1	21.1%	16.8%	4.3%	3.0%	5.44	5.44	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	CIN	26	0	27	114	25	17	3	0%	1.0	21.9%	14.5%	7.4%	2.9%	5.17	5.07	-0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	CIN	11	0	12	51	11	7	1	0%	1.1	21.9%	14.5%	7.4%	2.9%	5.17	5.07	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		11	0	12	49	11	7	1	0%	1.1	21.9%	14.5%	7.4%	2.9%	5.17	4.69	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	190	121	17	0%	1.1	21.9%	14.5%	7.4%	2.9%	5.17	4.69	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		34	14	98	449	80	79	10	41%	2.9	17.9%	17.5%	0.3%	2.3%	5.22	5.08	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		69	28	200	913	163	160	21	41%	2.9	17.9%	17.5%	0.3%	2.3%	5.22	5.08	-1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Morellis (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.44	21.1%	16.8%	3.0%	—	5.07	21.9%	7.4%	27	-0.37	—	—	—
Radhames Liz R 2007 · 5.07 FIP	23	SW	5.07	19.7%	18.0%	2.5%	.301	5.66	14.5%	2.3%	84	+0.59	2.81	219	90
Wills Montgomerie R 2018 · 5.10 FIP	23	SP-	5.10	19.3%	19.1%	2.2%	.275	4.51	20.1%	6.0%	105	-0.59	4.51	153	80
Kevin Abel R 2022 · 5.92 FIP	23	SW	5.92	25.2%	22.4%	3.9%	.441	4.63	18.6%	4.5%	308	-1.29	4.50	450	80
Nick Gallagher R 2019 · 4.56 FIP	23	SP-	4.56	22.0%	17.9%	1.9%	.274	5.02	21.0%	7.0%	73	+0.46	4.10	196	80
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	78
Seth McClung R 2003 · 5.63 FIP	22	SW	5.63	15.0%	14.4%	3.6%	.241	5.29	15.3%	2.8%	212	-0.34	2.52	430	78
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.34	18.3%	5.8%	123	-0.51	3.84	164	78
Joey Matulovich R 2019 · 5.52 FIP	22	SW	5.52	19.8%	14.6%	4.1%	.378	5.04	20.5%	8.9%	133	-0.48	3.22	201	76
Patrick Halligan R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SW	4.43	18.8%	11.6%	2.6%	.330	3.80	25.1%	15.0%	175	-0.63	2.47	305	76
Sam Ryan R 2021 · 4.38 FIP	22	SW	4.38	16.4%	14.7%	1.5%	.328	3.85	13.7%	2.9%	49	-0.53	3.80	178	75
Jordan Brink R 2016 · 5.96 FIP	23	SW	5.96	18.3%	19.2%	3.6%	.233	—	—	—	—	—	3.99	132	75
Dylan King R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	22	SW	4.43	21.4%	20.5%	1.0%	.233	4.79	27.1%	17.7%	90	+0.36	3.78	121	75
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.71	16.1%	6.1%	316	+0.16	3.97	371	75
Drew Conover R 2024 · 6.25 FIP	23	SW	6.25	15.6%	29.8%	1.3%	.272	5.19	12.6%	-3.4%	106	-1.06	4.49	145	74
Eriq Swan R 2024 · 4.85 FIP	22	SP-	4.85	19.7%	17.3%	2.2%	.371	5.28	19.7%	0.9%	109	+0.43	4.85	132	74
Hansel Rosario R 2024 · 5.54 FIP	21	SW	5.54	19.2%	22.2%	2.3%	.306	7.16	16.3%	-21.0%	19	+1.62	5.25	107	74
Alex Makarewich R 2024 · 6.15 FIP	22	SP-	6.15	19.7%	26.7%	2.4%	.425	5.15	26.4%	-3.3%	83	-1.00	4.26	110	74
Jeff Niemann R 2008 · 5.04 FIP	25	SW	5.04	18.4%	10.5%	4.0%	.294	4.16	17.4%	10.3%	490	-0.88	2.96	544	74
Tyler Santana R 2021 · 4.28 FIP	23	SU	4.28	20.3%	15.1%	1.8%	.333	4.37	16.0%	5.7%	259	+0.09	3.37	401	74
James McArthur R 2019 · 5.04 FIP	22	SP-	5.04	18.8%	15.5%	2.9%	.304	4.41	20.0%	10.7%	131	-0.63	3.48	352	74