Mathias LaCombe

P Winston-Salem Dash

Age 25 RHP 6'2" / 185 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECTFG #759

Scout OFP50ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	23	MIX2 levels	19	14	53	3.04	2.44	32.6%	10.7%	—	K 22.8% · BB 13.0% · FIP 3.73
2026	24	MIX4 levels	35	2	49	4.20	2.69	31.3%	11.7%	—	K 24.8% · BB 13.1% · FIP 3.70
2027PROJ	25	MLBCWS	57	0	60	4.67	4.67	23.9%	13.5%	-0.1
2028PROJ43% MLB	26	MLBCWS	25	0	26	4.62	4.61	24.1%	13.1%	-0.0
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBCWS	35	0	37	4.62	4.63	24.0%	12.8%	-0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff46Control50Command40FB velo55

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 94%

CompsGarrett Mock (age 25) · Ben Hecht (age 24) · Gabriel Ponce (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 106

ERA4.67

FIP4.67

K%23.9%

BB%13.5%

K-BB%10.4%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF4045

CTRL5050

CMD2540

K†5560

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	14	53	224	73	24	3	74%	2.8	22.8%	13.0%	9.8%	1.7%	3.04	3.73	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	14	53	224	73	24	3	74%	2.8	22.8%	13.0%	9.8%	1.7%	3.04	3.73	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	14	53	224	73	24	3	74%	2.8	32.6%	10.7%	21.9%	1.3%	3.04	2.44	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	35	2	49	214	67	25	3	6%	1.4	24.8%	13.1%	11.6%	1.9%	4.20	3.70	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	4 levels	35	2	49	214	67	25	3	6%	1.4	24.8%	13.1%	11.6%	1.9%	4.20	3.70	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	4 levels	35	2	49	214	67	25	3	6%	1.4	31.3%	11.7%	19.6%	1.4%	4.20	2.69	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	CWS	57	0	60	253	61	34	7	0%	1.1	23.9%	13.5%	10.4%	2.7%	4.67	4.67	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	CWS	57	0	60	251	61	33	7	0%	1.0	24.1%	13.1%	11.0%	2.8%	4.62	4.61	-0.0
2029	27	MLB MLE	CWS	56	0	59	247	59	32	7	0%	1.0	24.0%	12.8%	11.2%	2.8%	4.62	4.63	-0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	CWS	25	0	26	110	26	14	3	0%	1.0	24.1%	13.1%	11.0%	2.8%	4.62	4.61	-0.0
2029	27	MLB CTX	CWS	35	0	37	156	38	20	4	0%	1.1	24.0%	12.8%	11.2%	2.8%	4.62	4.63	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		59	0	62	264	63	34	7	0%	1.1	24.1%	12.9%	11.1%	2.8%	4.62	4.24	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	202	109	22	0%	1.1	24.1%	12.9%	11.1%	2.8%	4.62	4.24	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		54	16	103	438	104	57	8	30%	1.9	23.8%	13.1%	10.7%	1.8%	3.59	3.72	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		105	31	200	853	203	111	15	30%	1.9	23.8%	13.1%	10.7%	1.8%	3.59	3.72	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Mathias LaCombe (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.67	23.9%	13.5%	2.7%	—	4.62	24.1%	11.1%	118	-0.05	—	—	—
Garrett Mock R 2008 · 3.57 FIP	25	SU	3.57	25.6%	11.1%	2.2%	.300	4.06	17.1%	7.4%	91	+0.49	3.57	132	85
Ben Hecht R 2019 · 4.51 FIP	24	SU	4.51	22.7%	12.9%	3.1%	.293	7.98	14.1%	-11.4%	13	+3.47	4.39	155	83
Gabriel Ponce R 2023 · 4.59 FIP	24	SU	4.59	24.1%	14.9%	3.0%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	4.45	161	82
William Kempner R 2023 · 4.02 FIP	22	SU	4.02	21.5%	12.2%	2.2%	.277	3.17	28.8%	15.2%	112	-0.85	3.14	173	82
Emmanuel Chapman R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	25	SW	4.08	19.7%	10.6%	2.4%	.256	4.52	17.8%	1.3%	117	+0.44	3.81	198	82
Carter Loewen R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	25	SU	4.26	23.1%	15.0%	2.2%	.312	4.16	20.0%	11.9%	23	-0.10	2.67	145	82
Jesus Pirela R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.08	3.24	161	82
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.40	16.3%	4.0%	182	-0.16	3.45	237	82
Barrett Loseke R 2022 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	21.7%	10.1%	3.4%	.311	5.24	23.5%	12.2%	22	+0.82	4.42	152	82
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	81
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	81
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.23	26.7%	16.4%	76	-0.81	2.28	121	81
Grant Black R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	27	SW	4.46	19.0%	13.9%	2.2%	.327	5.35	15.0%	3.8%	156	+0.89	4.46	215	81
Eric Cerantola R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	24	SW	4.65	25.7%	16.6%	2.9%	.245	3.74	26.2%	15.9%	100	-0.91	3.37	270	81
Cody Tucker R 2024 · 4.97 FIP	25	SU	4.97	22.0%	12.0%	4.0%	.272	5.36	15.8%	-1.9%	40	+0.39	4.97	105	81
Sean Isaac R 2018 · 4.20 FIP	25	SW	4.20	24.2%	16.3%	2.0%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	155	81
Eric Orze R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	25	SU	3.98	25.6%	13.6%	2.4%	.319	3.57	24.1%	14.8%	196	-0.41	3.33	354	80
Dylan Hall R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	25	SU	3.98	21.0%	13.2%	1.8%	.305	7.24	15.1%	2.4%	58	+3.26	3.47	153	80
Layne Somsen R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	26	SU	3.74	19.5%	12.5%	1.3%	.265	4.00	19.9%	6.7%	92	+0.26	3.66	154	80
Carlos Fisher R 2009 · 3.90 FIP	26	SU	3.90	21.2%	12.8%	1.8%	.317	3.80	18.2%	8.1%	46	-0.10	2.48	245	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	59	24.0%	13.1%	1.07	4.64
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. ('16)	1.2	58	24.6%	11.1%	0.93	4.35