Derniche Valdez

SS Myrtle Beach Pelicans

Age 21 R/R 5'10" / 150 lbs A HR -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	19	ROKCHC	40	.135/.200/.189	0	2	-43	—	.079/.125/.105
2026	20	ACHC	420	.212/.250/.351	10	12	26	—	.172/.202/.274
2027PROJ0% MLB	21	MLBCHC	493	.199/.233/.307	9	9	49	-0.7
2028PROJ34% MLB	22	MLBCHC	156	.206/.243/.323	3	3	55	-0.3
2029PROJ48% MLB	23	MLBCHC	237	.210/.249/.332	5	5	59	-0.3

Next 3 projected WAR -1.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A

Speed85

ISO53

K%26

Z-Con%21

Whiff%18

wRC+15

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsJohan Mieses (age 21) · Jase Bowen (age 21) · Steven Baron (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 320 proj PA

wRC+†49

AVG/OBP/SLG.197 / .231 / .304

PA320

HR6

SB6

K%28

BB%3

ISO107

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$3M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 44

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT25

scouting grade only

POWER44

scouting grade only

EYE37

scouting grade only

SPEED54

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	17	ROK	DSL Cubs Blue	—	125	107	25	4	2	6	15	51	1	4	4	234	333	477	810	243	365	41	12	351	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	ACL Cubs	—	64	59	16	4	2	2	4	19	0	2	1	271	317	508	826	237	359	30	6	352	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK	ACL Cubs	—	40	37	5	2	0	0	3	15	0	2	5	135	200	189	389	54	227	38	8	184	-43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	420	396	84	13	6	10	17	120	3	12	2	212	250	351	601	139	274	29	4	264	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Blue	—	125	112	14	2	1	3	10	62	1	4	4	125	203	241	444	116	223	50	8	200	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	—	64	60	10	3	1	1	3	28	0	2	1	167	206	300	506	133	277	44	5	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	—	40	38	3	1	0	0	2	22	0	2	5	79	125	105	230	26	180	55	5	105	-43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	420	401	69	10	5	7	12	163	3	12	2	172	202	274	476	102	258	39	3	206	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Blue	—	125	112	14	2	1	3	10	62	1	4	4	125	203	241	444	116	224	50	8	200	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Cubs Blue	—	125	107	25	4	2	6	15	51	1	4	4	234	333	477	810	243	365	41	12	351	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	—	64	60	10	3	1	1	3	28	0	2	1	167	206	300	506	133	281	44	5	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	ACL Cubs	—	64	59	16	4	2	2	4	19	0	2	1	271	317	508	826	237	359	30	6	352	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	—	40	38	3	1	0	0	2	22	0	2	5	79	125	105	230	26	188	55	5	105	-43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	ACL Cubs	—	40	37	5	2	0	0	3	15	0	2	5	135	200	189	389	54	227	38	8	184	-43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	420	401	69	10	5	7	12	163	3	12	2	172	202	274	476	102	264	39	3	206	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A RAW	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	420	396	84	13	6	10	17	120	3	12	2	212	250	351	601	139	274	29	4	264	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Blue	—	125	113	14	2	1	3	10	62	1	4	4	124	203	239	442	115	223	50	8	200	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	—	64	61	10	3	1	1	3	28	0	2	1	164	206	295	501	131	277	44	5	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	—	40	38	3	1	0	0	2	22	0	2	5	79	125	105	230	26	180	55	5	105	-43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	420	402	69	10	5	7	12	163	3	12	2	172	202	274	476	102	258	39	3	206	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	18	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	—	64	61	10	3	1	1	3	28	0	2	1	164	206	295	501	131	277	44	5	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	—	40	38	3	1	0	0	2	22	0	2	5	79	125	105	230	26	180	55	5	105	-43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	—	420	402	69	10	5	7	12	163	3	12	2	172	202	274	476	102	258	39	3	206	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	21	MLB MLE	CHC	0%	493	469	93	17	3	9	17	138	4	9	2	199	233	307	540	107	260	28	3	240	49	-30	+1	+0	+5	+11	-0.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	CHC	34%	454	430	87	16	3	9	17	125	4	9	2	204	241	320	561	116	262	28	4	249	55	-24	+1	+0	+5	+10	-0.9
2029	23	MLB MLE	CHC	48%	490	463	95	18	3	10	20	132	4	10	3	208	247	329	576	121	265	27	4	256	59	-24	+1	+0	+5	+11	-0.7
2030	24	MLB MLE	CHC	53%	529	497	105	19	4	12	23	141	4	11	3	211	252	336	588	125	267	27	4	261	63	-23	+1	+0	+6	+11	-0.5
2031	25	MLB MLE	CHC	55%	560	524	112	21	4	13	26	148	5	12	3	213	256	340	597	128	268	26	5	265	65	-23	+1	+0	+6	+12	-0.4
2032	26	MLB MLE	CHC	56%	569	532	114	21	4	13	27	149	5	12	3	214	259	343	603	129	269	26	5	268	67	-22	+1	+0	+6	+12	-0.3
2033	27	MLB MLE	CHC	55%	570	532	114	21	4	13	28	150	5	12	3	213	258	341	599	128	269	26	5	266	66	-23	+1	+0	+6	+12	-0.3
2034	28	MLB MLE	CHC	55%	565	528	113	21	4	13	27	150	5	10	3	212	257	337	593	125	268	27	5	264	65	-24	+1	-1	+6	+12	-0.5
2028	22	MLB CTX	CHC	34%	156	148	30	6	1	3	6	43	1	3	1	206	243	323	565	117	266	28	4	251	55	-8	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.3
2029	23	MLB CTX	CHC	48%	237	223	47	9	2	5	10	64	2	5	1	210	249	332	580	122	268	27	4	258	59	-11	+1	+0	+3	+5	-0.3
2030	24	MLB CTX	CHC	53%	279	263	56	11	2	6	12	74	2	6	1	213	254	338	592	126	270	27	4	263	63	-12	+1	+0	+3	+6	-0.3
2031	25	MLB CTX	CHC	55%	306	286	62	12	2	7	14	81	3	6	2	215	258	343	601	128	271	26	5	267	65	-13	+0	+0	+3	+7	-0.2
2032	26	MLB CTX	CHC	56%	317	296	63	12	2	7	15	83	3	7	2	216	261	346	607	130	272	26	5	269	67	-12	+1	+0	+3	+7	-0.1
2033	27	MLB CTX	CHC	55%	314	293	63	12	2	7	15	83	3	6	2	215	260	343	603	128	272	26	5	268	66	-13	+0	+0	+3	+7	-0.2
2034	28	MLB CTX	CHC	55%	309	289	62	12	2	7	15	82	2	6	2	213	258	339	597	126	271	27	5	265	65	-13	+0	-0	+3	+7	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1918	1798	383	74	13	42	87	510	16	39	11	213	256	339	594	126	271	27	5	264	57	-83	+3	-0	+21	+42	-1.8
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	609	129	25	4	14	29	173	5	13	4	212	253	335	588	123	270	27	4	264	57	-28	+1	-0	+7	+14	-0.6
Career	—	MLE		—	4706	4420	896	164	35	100	206	1360	39	102	34	203	245	324	568	121	266	29	4	252	57	-183	+8	-1	+43	+88	-4.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	610	124	23	5	14	28	188	5	14	5	203	244	326	570	123	267	29	4	252	57	-29	+1	-0	+7	+14	-0.7

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
/162	664	10	9	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#2Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#3Lena Blackburne'10-'27 * career totals — 5 seasons, 2,086 PA	3.1	2,086	4	54	215*	288*	334*	+13	+11	2.0	2.0
/162	664	1	17	+4.2	+3.4	0.6	pk7: 2
#4Andres Thomas'85-'90 * career totals — 5 seasons, 2,185 PA	3.3	2,185	42	22	234*	256*	361*	+23	+24	0.5	0.5
/162	664	13	7	+7.1	+7.3	0.2	pk7: 0
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	3.4	2,238	49	45	210	249	334	+24	+15	-1.1	-0.5
/162	664	14	13	+7.1	+4.5	-0.3	pk7: 0
#5Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1
#6Billy Hunter'53-'58 * career totals — 6 seasons, 2,052 PA	3.1	2,052	16	23	213*	254*	312*	+20	+13	-2.7	-2.7
/162	664	5	7	+6.4	+4.3	-0.9	pk7: -3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Derniche Valdez (OGILVIE)	21	20→25	39→44	49→54	37	197/231/304	107	260	6	6	28%	3%	49	-1.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Johan Mieses 2016 · A	21	40→33	45→55	52→50	40	204/250/330	126	265	12	14	28%	5%	61	-1.5	189/238/351	162	266	20	4	37%	5%	63	-1.4	192/268/358	166	237	23	7	30%	7%	73	-0.4
✕Jase Bowen 2022 · A	21	37→42	42→50	54→55	35	186/247/286	100	284	10	12	37%	5%	51	-2.2	197/249/316	119	284	14	16	34%	5%	59	-1.7	209/260/343	134	298	14	23	33%	6%	66	-0.7
✕Steven Baron 2012 · A	21	34	39→45	45→50	36	174/218/258	84	255	7	7	34%	5%	32	-3.6	190/226/284	94	268	6	9	30%	4%	41	-3.0	236/292/311	74	314	4	8	24%	7%	69	-0.4
✕Frank Rodriguez 2024 · A	22	35	42→45	47→30	38	180/236/279	99	250	10	4	32%	5%	45	-2.7	188/246/274	86	257	8	4	29%	6%	47	-2.5	183/244/267	84	241	9	1	27%	6%	43	-0.9
✕Kyle Nevin 2023 · A	21	41→40	40	52→50	39	199/251/297	98	277	6	10	29%	5%	54	-2.0	219/276/320	101	333	8	10	34%	7%	69	-0.9	214/275/310	96	327	9	12	35%	7%	64	-0.8
✕Jesus Feliz 2021 · A	21	38	41→50	47→45	37	192/235/296	103	254	8	8	27%	4%	48	-2.5	202/251/320	118	295	13	6	35%	4%	60	-1.6	179/229/314	135	250	20	5	37%	3%	47	-0.9
✕Sean Coyle 2013 · A	21	40→38	45→50	54→50	38	199/264/327	128	286	12	13	34%	6%	67	-1.1	211/271/364	153	307	18	14	36%	6%	78	-0.3	204/267/368	165	294	22	15	37%	7%	75	-0.2
✕Sthervin Matos 2015 · A	21	36→35	44→50	51→50	36	186/224/297	111	241	12	11	28%	4%	44	-2.8	183/232/268	85	273	8	11	34%	5%	40	-3.0	164/218/235	72	249	6	13	35%	6%	27	-2.0
✕Sammy Hernandez 2024 · A	20	37	43→40	51→50	40	188/254/301	113	262	11	5	31%	6%	57	-1.8	203/291/298	95	270	8	9	26%	9%	71	-0.8	201/300/298	97	262	9	13	24%	10%	72	-0.4
✕Brayan Buelvas 2023 · A	21	36→45	47→50	50→55	40	190/251/322	132	249	14	13	30%	6%	61	-1.5	196/259/315	119	279	11	18	32%	7%	62	-1.4	205/266/334	130	290	12	14	32%	7%	66	-0.8
✕Ethan Workinger 2023 · A	21	37→41	42→45	45	39	187/239/300	113	260	9	5	31%	6%	51	-2.3	205/255/326	121	270	13	6	28%	6%	63	-1.4	198/253/321	123	239	15	9	24%	6%	58	-1.1
✕Brandon Dailey 2013 · A	21	42	40→45	55	37	203/249/301	98	294	7	12	32%	5%	54	-2.0	195/248/297	102	288	9	6	34%	6%	53	-2.1	144/199/220	76	199	6	0	30%	5%	17	-1.1
✕Freuddy Batista 2021 · A	21	38	39→50	48→40	36	186/240/272	87	288	7	5	36%	6%	45	-2.7	203/268/343	140	296	15	6	35%	6%	72	-0.7	195/262/337	142	285	14	5	35%	6%	66	-0.5
✕Rafael Morel 2022 · A	20	36	39→40	51→50	40	181/244/269	88	257	7	13	31%	6%	46	-2.6	196/262/273	77	311	7	10	36%	7%	53	-2.1	190/263/263	73	291	8	10	35%	7%	49	-1.2
✕Osiris Johnson 2022 · A	21	35	44→40	51→50	37	181/235/289	108	264	12	7	36%	6%	47	-2.6	192/240/283	91	267	10	11	31%	5%	47	-2.5	183/230/260	77	248	9	15	29%	5%	36	-1.5
✕Jose Cordoba 2023 · A	20	37	41→40	44→55	40	185/250/278	93	262	9	9	32%	6%	50	-2.3	205/259/296	91	278	6	11	27%	6%	57	-1.8	203/257/294	91	267	4	15	24%	5%	53	-0.9
✕Claudio Bautista 2015 · A	21	40→42	44→45	51→45	34	204/232/324	120	271	12	8	30%	3%	53	-2.1	202/242/308	106	279	10	7	30%	5%	53	-2.1	192/237/291	99	265	11	5	31%	5%	46	-1.6
✕Riccio Torrez 2012 · A	22	41→34	43→40	46→45	39	205/249/308	103	258	11	7	25%	4%	56	-1.9	193/249/284	91	245	8	5	24%	4%	51	-2.2	184/240/270	86	233	7	4	24%	4%	42	-1.5
✕Carlos Dominguez 2021 · A	21	39→26	40→45	50	39	190/272/284	94	273	6	12	31%	5%	61	-1.5	170/238/291	121	318	15	12	49%	5%	49	-2.4	137/207/253	116	269	16	13	53%	5%	27	-1.7
✕Jose Rosario 2014 · A	22	41	44→40	51→50	42	207/260/321	114	253	11	12	23%	5%	63	-1.3	235/273/320	85	293	5	9	21%	4%	67	-1.1	246/276/325	79	308	4	9	21%	3%	65	-0.7

Derniche Valdez

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps