Alfredo Duno

C Dayton Dragons

Age 21 R/R 6'2" / 210 lbs A+ HR +16%BB +6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

Overview

A+PROSPECTFG #20MiLBFA 2034

Scout OFP56ETA2028FG ETA2027MLB%11%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	19	ACIN	495	.287/.434/.518	18	6	114	—	.237/.356/.408
2025	19	INTLPeoria Javeli…	59	.213/.362/.298	0	1	95	—
2026	20	AACIN	138	.322/.406/.488	3	3	112	—	.286/.348/.437
2026	20	A+CIN	295	.260/.391/.512	16	2	97	—	.207/.310/.398
2027PROJ11% MLB	21	MLBCIN	34	.215/.312/.390	1	0	95	0.1
2028PROJ59% MLB	22	MLBCIN	308	.224/.320/.417	13	4	103	1.4
2029PROJ76% MLB	23	MLBCIN	394	.231/.326/.437	18	5	110	2.2

Next 3 projected WAR 3.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$7M2032Arb-2$12M2033Arb-3$18M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA

wOBA89

K%88

wRC+85

Chase%83

BB%69

ISO60

Career WAR6 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 44, comp-based) · star 12% · didn't stick 44%

CompsDerek Norris (age 21) · Andy Pages (age 22) · Logan O'Hoppe (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†95

AVG/OBP/SLG.215 / .312 / .390

PA34

HR1

K%26

BB%12

BABIP258

ISO133

MLB%11%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$74M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 47 / POW 64

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT47

scouting grade only

POWER64

scouting grade only

EYE63

scouting grade only

SPEED40

scouting grade only

DEFENSE53

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.4	$10M	+$10M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.2	$15M	+$14M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.5	$16M	+$15M
2031	Arb-1	$7M	+2.7	$17M	+$12M
2032	Arb-2	$12M	+2.7	$16M	+$8M
2033	Arb-3	$18M	+2.6	$14M	+$4M
Totals		$40M		$87M	+$64M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	17	ROK	DSL Reds	—	195	152	46	9	1	6	38	41	4	6	0	303	454	493	947	191	377	21	19	422	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	A	Daytona Tortugas	—	139	116	31	7	1	3	18	40	2	2	0	267	375	422	797	155	368	29	13	352	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A	Daytona Tortugas	—	495	390	112	32	2	18	95	91	6	6	6	287	434	518	952	231	330	18	19	418	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	INTL	Peoria Javelinas	—	59	47	10	2	1	0	11	16	0	1	0	213	362	298	660	85	312	27	19	308	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	138	121	39	9	1	3	17	23	0	3	0	322	406	488	893	165	379	17	12	397	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A+	Dayton Dragons	—	295	242	63	13	0	16	49	79	3	2	0	260	391	512	904	252	318	27	17	397	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	INTL	Leones del Caracas	—	29	26	5	1	0	1	3	5	0	0	0	192	276	346	622	154	200	17	10	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	—	195	164	31	6	1	3	26	51	4	6	0	189	314	293	607	104	240	26	13	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	—	139	121	25	5	1	2	13	55	2	2	0	207	294	314	608	107	334	40	9	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	—	495	414	98	25	2	14	71	123	6	6	6	237	356	408	765	171	292	25	14	337	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	138	126	36	8	1	3	12	28	0	3	0	286	348	437	784	151	346	20	9	333	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	295	256	53	10	0	13	35	100	3	2	0	207	310	398	708	191	278	34	12	311	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	—	195	164	31	6	1	3	26	51	4	6	0	189	314	293	607	104	252	26	13	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Reds	—	195	152	46	9	1	6	38	41	4	6	0	303	454	493	947	191	377	21	19	422	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	—	139	121	25	5	1	2	13	55	2	2	0	207	294	314	608	107	343	40	9	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	A RAW	Daytona Tortugas	—	139	116	31	7	1	3	18	40	2	2	0	267	375	422	797	155	368	29	13	352	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	554	464	110	28	2	16	79	137	6	7	6	237	355	409	765	172	297	25	14	337	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A RAW	2 teams	—	554	437	122	34	3	18	106	107	6	7	6	279	426	494	921	215	328	19	19	406	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	462	408	95	20	1	16	50	137	3	5	0	233	321	404	725	172	309	30	11	318	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	462	389	107	23	1	20	69	107	3	5	0	275	388	494	882	219	331	23	15	390	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	—	195	163	31	6	1	3	26	51	4	6	0	190	314	294	609	104	240	26	13	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	—	139	123	25	5	1	2	13	55	2	2	0	203	294	309	603	106	334	40	9	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	554	464	110	28	2	16	79	137	6	7	6	237	355	409	765	172	292	25	14	337	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	462	406	95	20	1	16	50	137	3	5	0	234	321	406	727	172	300	30	11	318	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	18	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	—	139	123	25	5	1	2	13	55	2	2	0	203	294	309	603	106	334	40	9	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	554	464	110	28	2	16	79	137	6	7	6	237	355	409	765	172	292	25	14	337	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	462	406	95	20	1	16	50	137	3	5	0	234	321	406	727	172	300	30	11	318	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	21	MLB MLE	CIN	11%	543	472	101	21	2	18	62	139	4	6	1	212	310	379	688	166	257	26	11	309	95	-3	+1	-0	+10	+12	1.3
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	21	MLB CTX	CIN	11%	34	30	6	1	0	1	4	9	0	0	0	215	312	390	702	175	258	26	12	314	95	-0	+0	-0	+1	+1	0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	CIN	59%	520	451	100	20	2	20	60	130	4	6	1	221	317	404	721	183	260	25	12	321	103	+2	+1	+0	+9	+11	2.4
2029	23	MLB MLE	CIN	76%	520	451	103	20	2	22	60	127	4	6	1	227	323	423	745	196	263	24	12	330	110	+6	+1	+1	+9	+11	2.9
2030	24	MLB MLE	CIN	80%	520	451	105	20	2	23	60	125	4	6	1	231	326	434	760	203	266	24	12	336	114	+8	+1	+1	+9	+11	3.2
2031	25	MLB MLE	CIN	81%	520	452	106	20	2	23	59	124	4	6	1	234	328	440	768	206	267	24	11	339	116	+10	+1	+2	+9	+11	3.3
2032	26	MLB MLE	CIN	82%	520	452	106	20	2	23	59	124	4	6	1	235	328	442	770	207	269	24	11	340	116	+10	+1	+2	+9	+11	3.4
2033	27	MLB MLE	CIN	80%	520	452	106	20	2	23	59	125	4	5	1	234	327	439	766	205	268	24	11	338	115	+9	+1	+2	+9	+11	3.3
2034	28	MLB MLE	CIN	80%	520	452	106	20	2	23	59	126	4	4	1	232	325	434	759	202	267	24	11	336	113	+8	+0	+1	+9	+11	3.1
2035	29	MLB MLE	CIN	77%	520	453	103	20	1	22	58	127	4	2	1	230	322	428	750	198	265	24	11	332	111	+7	+0	+0	+9	+11	2.8
2036	30	MLB MLE	CIN	76%	520	453	103	20	1	22	58	129	4	1	1	226	319	419	738	193	263	25	11	327	108	+5	-0	-0	+9	+11	2.5
2037	31	MLB MLE	CIN	76%	504	440	99	19	1	21	56	127	3	1	0	222	314	409	723	187	260	25	11	321	103	+2	+0	-1	+9	+11	2.1
2038	32	MLB MLE	CIN	75%	489	430	92	17	1	19	53	125	3	0	0	216	307	396	703	179	255	26	11	313	98	-1	+0	-2	+9	+11	1.7
2039	33	MLB MLE	CIN	75%	470	414	87	16	1	18	51	123	2	0	0	210	300	379	679	170	250	26	11	304	92	-5	+0	-3	+8	+10	1.1
2040	34	MLB MLE	CIN	71%	413	364	74	13	1	15	44	111	2	0	0	201	290	360	650	159	242	27	11	292	84	-8	+0	-4	+7	+9	0.5
2028	22	MLB CTX	CIN	59%	308	267	61	12	1	13	36	77	2	4	1	224	320	417	737	193	261	25	12	327	103	+1	+0	+0	+6	+7	1.4
2029	23	MLB CTX	CIN	76%	394	343	79	15	1	18	45	96	3	5	1	231	326	437	763	207	264	24	11	337	110	+5	+1	+0	+7	+9	2.2
2030	24	MLB CTX	CIN	80%	413	360	84	16	1	19	47	99	3	5	1	235	330	450	779	214	267	24	11	343	114	+7	+1	+1	+7	+9	2.5
2031	25	MLB CTX	CIN	81%	421	367	86	16	1	20	48	101	3	5	1	238	331	456	787	218	269	24	11	346	116	+8	+1	+1	+8	+9	2.7
2032	26	MLB CTX	CIN	82%	424	370	88	16	1	21	48	101	3	5	1	239	332	458	789	218	270	24	11	347	116	+8	+1	+1	+8	+9	2.7
2033	27	MLB CTX	CIN	80%	417	364	86	16	1	20	47	100	3	4	1	238	331	455	785	217	269	24	11	345	115	+7	+0	+1	+7	+9	2.6
2034	28	MLB CTX	CIN	80%	414	361	86	16	1	20	47	100	3	3	1	236	329	450	778	213	268	24	11	343	113	+7	+0	+1	+7	+9	2.4
2035	29	MLB CTX	CIN	77%	403	352	82	15	1	19	45	99	3	2	1	233	326	443	768	209	267	25	11	339	111	+5	+0	+0	+7	+9	2.2
2036	30	MLB CTX	CIN	76%	397	347	80	15	1	18	44	98	3	1	0	230	322	434	756	204	264	25	11	334	108	+4	+0	-0	+7	+9	2.0
2037	31	MLB CTX	CIN	76%	381	334	76	14	1	17	42	96	2	0	0	226	317	423	740	198	261	25	11	328	103	+2	+0	-1	+7	+8	1.6
2038	32	MLB CTX	CIN	75%	369	324	72	13	1	16	40	95	2	0	0	220	311	409	720	189	257	26	11	320	98	-1	+0	-1	+7	+8	1.3
2039	33	MLB CTX	CIN	75%	353	310	67	12	1	14	38	93	2	0	0	213	303	392	695	179	251	26	11	310	92	-4	+0	-2	+6	+8	0.9
2040	34	MLB CTX	CIN	71%	292	258	52	9	0	11	31	79	1	0	0	204	293	372	665	168	244	27	11	298	84	-6	+0	-3	+5	+6	0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	4986	4357	999	185	12	226	558	1234	33	34	8	229	321	433	754	204	265	25	11	333	105	+43	+4	-1	+89	+108	24.8
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	568	130	24	2	29	73	161	4	4	1	229	321	431	752	202	265	25	11	333	105	+6	+0	-0	+12	+14	3.2
Career	—	MLE		—	8226	7150	1610	316	26	322	941	2085	63	66	16	225	321	412	732	187	269	25	11	324	105	+52	+5	-2	+123	+149	33.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	565	127	25	2	25	74	165	5	5	1	225	320	409	729	184	269	25	11	324	105	+5	+0	-0	+12	+14	3.2

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Matt Wieterslast yr '19 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,387 PA	6.6	4,387	146	9	250	313	411	+78	+81	30.0	28.4
/162	664	22	1	+11.9	+12.2	4.5	pk7: 27
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 10 projected seasons	7.6	5,020	210	35	226	316	420	+90	+12	27.4	23.0
/162	664	28	5	+11.9	+1.6	3.6	pk7: 19
#2Charles Johnson'94-'05 * career totals — 11 seasons, 4,385 PA	6.6	4,385	167	6	235*	316*	421*	+78	+0	21.1	19.6
/162	664	25	1	+11.8	+0.0	3.2	pk7: 18
#3Jody Davis'81-'90 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,984 PA	6.0	3,984	127	7	242*	306*	433*	+70	+0	15.9	16.0
/162	664	21	1	+11.7	+0.0	2.6	pk7: 16
#4John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	6.0	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
/162	664	22	1	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#5Jarrod Saltalamacchialast yr '16 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,127 PA	4.7	3,127	110	5	235	308	414	+56	-10	14.1	14.8
/162	664	23	1	+11.9	-2.1	3.0	pk7: 16
#6Ozzie Virgil'80-'90 * career totals — 7 seasons, 2,555 PA	3.8	2,555	98	4	240*	323*	445*	+44	+0	14.1	14.2
/162	664	25	1	+11.6	+0.0	3.7	pk7: 14

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Alfredo Duno (OGILVIE)	21	38→47	52→64	45→40	63	211/307/375	165	257	11	3	26%	12%	95	+0.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Derek Norris 2010 · A	21	45→55	52→55	45→50	49	228/310/392	164	299	20	5	30%	10%	99	+1.3	209/309/374	165	282	20	9	31%	12%	95	+1.0	257/333/410	152	314	16	5	22%	9%	112	+1.6
●Andy Pages 2023 · AA	22	39→49	56→60	45→50	45	211/297/402	191	273	24	6	31%	9%	97	+1.1	243/312/420	177	306	20	9	26%	7%	106	+1.8	269/326/453	184	315	23	10	22%	6%	121	+2.8
✕Logan O'Hoppe 2023 · MLB	23	46→48	53→55	45	50	238/315/406	168	271	22	7	21%	8%	104	+1.6	238/301/417	179	290	25	5	26%	7%	101	+1.4	230/285/405	175	287	26	2	29%	6%	94	+0.6
✕Francisco Alvarez 2023 · AAA	21	46→47	59→60	43→40	48	242/325/451	209	307	28	4	30%	9%	118	+2.7	235/309/436	201	288	27	4	28%	9%	109	+2.0	231/307/434	204	276	28	2	27%	9%	108	+1.3
●Iván Herrera 2022 · AA	22	43→53	48→50	40→50	48	219/299/351	132	281	17	4	28%	9%	86	+0.3	245/334/373	128	318	13	10	25%	11%	103	+1.6	263/357/416	152	307	19	10	20%	10%	123	+2.6
●Mike Zunino 2013 · AA	22	49→48	51→65	49→30	46	252/301/414	162	289	19	9	20%	6%	100	+1.3	208/267/379	171	271	22	3	31%	5%	80	-0.1	229/305/466	236	295	33	0	33%	8%	115	+1.9
●Gary Sánchez 2014 · AA	21	45→53	48→65	47→45	41	228/279/370	142	291	16	6	28%	6%	82	+0.0	248/299/402	154	302	19	6	24%	6%	97	+1.1	245/318/474	229	271	32	4	23%	8%	121	+2.3
✕Travis Denker 2007 · A	21	45→51	49→50	37→45	54	228/313/371	143	268	17	3	22%	10%	95	+1.0	231/301/358	127	283	12	5	21%	9%	87	+0.4	228/292/363	135	273	14	6	21%	7%	83	+0.1
✕Andy Marte 2006 · MLB	22	45→49	53→55	37→40	52	233/305/408	175	268	20	3	22%	10%	101	+1.4	228/278/386	158	268	18	3	22%	6%	85	+0.2	240/289/401	161	270	19	2	19%	6%	92	+0.4
●Devin Mesoraco 2011 · AAA	23	45→50	53→60	42→40	43	232/289/406	174	284	20	3	26%	6%	95	+0.9	233/287/389	156	272	17	3	21%	6%	89	+0.5	235/319/433	198	264	26	1	22%	9%	112	+1.1
✕Michael McKenry 2008 · A	23	46→47	54→55	41→40	49	238/309/421	183	282	21	7	24%	9%	105	+1.7	223/292/377	154	278	17	4	25%	8%	88	+0.5	248/321/426	177	294	23	2	23%	9%	111	+0.8
●Sean Rodríguez 2007 · AA	22	47→51	52→60	48→50	46	240/313/415	174	307	20	12	28%	8%	105	+1.7	236/309/417	181	299	21	10	28%	7%	105	+1.7	244/318/452	208	301	26	12	27%	7%	113	+1.7
●Jordan Diaz 2022 · A	21	49→59	49→55	42→30	44	249/294/398	149	296	16	5	22%	6%	93	+0.8	268/308/425	157	313	19	2	20%	5%	105	+1.7	274/316/435	161	317	20	0	20%	5%	108	+1.5
✕Agustín Ramírez 2024 · AA	22	44→48	48→55	48→55	47	226/286/366	140	275	16	10	24%	8%	84	+0.1	237/299/402	165	282	19	17	22%	7%	97	+1.1	236/301/405	169	279	19	20	22%	7%	97	+1.1
●Spencer Torkelson 2022 · AAA	22	43→45	57→60	45→40	51	229/318/434	206	277	25	6	27%	10%	112	+2.2	220/302/392	172	276	20	3	27%	10%	96	+1.0	227/317/425	198	291	25	1	30%	10%	110	+2.2
●Chris Iannetta 2006 · AA	23	45→55	50→60	44→45	49	230/305/389	159	291	17	4	26%	9%	96	+1.0	255/344/421	166	310	17	3	22%	10%	118	+2.6	262/364/443	181	313	19	0	21%	11%	129	+2.2
●Brandon Drury 2015 · AA	22	48→56	48→60	41→40	42	242/285/391	149	288	15	3	22%	5%	88	+0.5	259/301/396	137	308	13	3	20%	5%	95	+1.0	255/306/468	213	301	27	1	24%	6%	116	+1.9
●Gleyber Torres 2019 · MLB	22	51→55	53→60	46→50	47	259/324/431	172	322	20	10	26%	8%	113	+2.3	262/329/447	185	304	24	9	22%	9%	118	+2.7	259/345/399	140	294	17	6	17%	11%	114	+2.6
●Alejandro Kirk 2022 · MLB	23	50→57	51→50	47→40	55	252/328/416	163	272	18	4	15%	9%	111	+2.1	262/340/389	127	281	14	2	12%	10%	109	+2.0	260/341/374	114	279	12	0	11%	10%	106	+1.3
●Josmil Pinto 2010 · A	21	44→54	48→50	47→40	44	225/277/373	147	267	16	3	22%	6%	82	-0.0	217/263/349	132	268	14	2	24%	5%	71	-0.8	257/325/415	158	308	17	0	21%	8%	106	+1.5

Alfredo Duno

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps