Connor Charping
C Arkansas Travelers| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 25 | A+/A2 orgs | 284 | .276/.416/.364 | 1 | 12 | 85 | — | .248/.358/.324 |
| 2025 | 26 | AASEA | 176 | .299/.423/.326 | 0 | 8 | 100 | — | .285/.383/.311 |
| 2026 | 27 | AA/ROKSEA | 231 | .259/.391/.444 | 6 | 6 | 90 | — | .217/.326/.367 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 28 | MLBSEA | 2 | .230/.323/.329 | 0 | 0 | 90 | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ28% MLB | 29 | MLBSEA | 38 | .229/.320/.326 | 0 | 1 | 88 | 0.1 | |
| 2029PROJ43% MLB | 30 | MLBSEA | 72 | .226/.316/.322 | 1 | 1 | 86 | 0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 60 / POW 20
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 23 | ROK | ACL Mariners | — | 15 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 182 | 400 | 182 | 582 | 250 | 20 | 13 | 312 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2023 | 24 | ROK | ACL Mariners | — | 53 | 41 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 11 | 6 | 10 | 1 | 268 | 434 | 341 | 775 | 73 | 345 | 21 | 11 | 372 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | A+ | Everett AquaSox | — | 91 | 74 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 257 | 389 | 284 | 673 | 27 | 302 | 13 | 13 | 322 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | A | Modesto Nuts | — | 193 | 151 | 43 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 28 | 31 | 10 | 10 | 1 | 285 | 429 | 404 | 833 | 119 | 341 | 16 | 15 | 376 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | — | 176 | 144 | 43 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 26 | 27 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 299 | 423 | 326 | 749 | 28 | 364 | 15 | 15 | 353 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | — | 214 | 177 | 46 | 13 | 2 | 6 | 25 | 40 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 260 | 385 | 458 | 843 | 198 | 303 | 19 | 12 | 376 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | ROK | ACL Mariners | — | 17 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 250 | 471 | 250 | 721 | 333 | 18 | 12 | 371 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 23 | ROK MLE | ACL Mariners | — | 15 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 167 | 333 | 167 | 500 | 195 | 27 | 7 | 213 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2023 | 24 | ROK MLE | ACL Mariners | — | 53 | 43 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 6 | 10 | 1 | 209 | 358 | 279 | 638 | 70 | 272 | 30 | 8 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | A+ MLE | Everett AquaSox | — | 91 | 78 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 244 | 344 | 269 | 614 | 26 | 280 | 18 | 9 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | A MLE | Modesto Nuts | — | 193 | 160 | 40 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 19 | 42 | 10 | 10 | 1 | 250 | 365 | 350 | 715 | 100 | 298 | 22 | 10 | 306 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA MLE | Arkansas Travelers | — | 176 | 151 | 43 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 31 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 285 | 383 | 311 | 694 | 26 | 348 | 18 | 11 | 316 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AA MLE | Arkansas Travelers | — | 214 | 185 | 41 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 49 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 222 | 324 | 384 | 708 | 162 | 264 | 23 | 8 | 304 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | ROK MLE | ACL Mariners | — | 17 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 154 | 353 | 154 | 507 | 257 | 24 | 6 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2022 | 23 | ROK MLE | ACL Mariners | — | 15 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 167 | 333 | 167 | 500 | 250 | 27 | 7 | 213 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2022 | 23 | ROK RAW | ACL Mariners | — | 15 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 182 | 400 | 182 | 582 | 250 | 20 | 13 | 312 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2023 | 24 | ROK MLE | ACL Mariners | — | 53 | 43 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 6 | 10 | 1 | 209 | 358 | 279 | 638 | 70 | 308 | 30 | 8 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | ROK RAW | ACL Mariners | — | 53 | 41 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 11 | 6 | 10 | 1 | 268 | 434 | 341 | 775 | 73 | 345 | 21 | 11 | 372 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 284 | 239 | 57 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 26 | 59 | 14 | 12 | 4 | 238 | 348 | 310 | 657 | 71 | 304 | 21 | 9 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 284 | 225 | 62 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 40 | 43 | 14 | 12 | 4 | 276 | 416 | 364 | 780 | 89 | 328 | 15 | 14 | 359 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA MLE | Arkansas Travelers | — | 176 | 151 | 43 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 31 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 285 | 383 | 311 | 694 | 26 | 355 | 18 | 11 | 316 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA RAW | Arkansas Travelers | — | 176 | 144 | 43 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 26 | 27 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 299 | 423 | 326 | 749 | 28 | 364 | 15 | 15 | 353 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 231 | 198 | 43 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 18 | 53 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 217 | 326 | 369 | 695 | 152 | 270 | 23 | 8 | 301 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 231 | 189 | 49 | 13 | 2 | 6 | 27 | 43 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 259 | 391 | 444 | 836 | 185 | 305 | 19 | 12 | 376 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | ROK MLE | ACL Mariners | — | 15 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 167 | 333 | 167 | 500 | 195 | 27 | 7 | 213 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2023 | 24 | ROK MLE | ACL Mariners | — | 53 | 43 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 6 | 10 | 1 | 209 | 358 | 279 | 638 | 70 | 272 | 30 | 8 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 284 | 242 | 57 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 26 | 59 | 14 | 12 | 4 | 236 | 348 | 306 | 653 | 70 | 292 | 21 | 9 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA MLE | Arkansas Travelers | — | 176 | 150 | 43 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 31 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 287 | 383 | 313 | 696 | 27 | 348 | 18 | 11 | 316 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 231 | 197 | 43 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 18 | 53 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 218 | 326 | 371 | 697 | 152 | 263 | 23 | 8 | 301 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 25 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 284 | 242 | 57 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 26 | 59 | 14 | 12 | 4 | 236 | 348 | 306 | 653 | 70 | 292 | 21 | 9 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AA MLE | Arkansas Travelers | — | 176 | 150 | 43 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 31 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 287 | 383 | 313 | 696 | 27 | 348 | 18 | 11 | 316 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 231 | 197 | 43 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 18 | 53 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 218 | 326 | 371 | 697 | 152 | 263 | 23 | 8 | 301 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB MLE | SEA | 2% | 281 | 245 | 57 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 26 | 65 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 232 | 325 | 333 | 658 | 100 | 299 | 23 | 9 | 301 | 90 | -3 | +0 | +0 | +5 | +6 | 0.4 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB CTX | SEA | 2% | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 230 | 323 | 329 | 652 | 98 | 296 | 0 | 0 | 299 | 90 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 29 | MLB MLE | SEA | 28% | 135 | 118 | 27 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 31 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 231 | 322 | 330 | 652 | 100 | 297 | 23 | 9 | 299 | 88 | -2 | +0 | -1 | +2 | +3 | 0.2 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB MLE | SEA | 43% | 166 | 146 | 33 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 39 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 228 | 318 | 326 | 644 | 98 | 295 | 23 | 9 | 295 | 86 | -3 | +0 | -2 | +3 | +4 | 0.2 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB CTX | SEA | 28% | 38 | 34 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 229 | 320 | 326 | 646 | 98 | 295 | 24 | 8 | 296 | 88 | -1 | +0 | -0 | +1 | +1 | 0.1 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB CTX | SEA | 43% | 72 | 64 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 226 | 316 | 322 | 639 | 96 | 293 | 24 | 8 | 293 | 86 | -1 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +2 | 0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 110 | 98 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 26 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 204 | 291 | 276 | 566 | 71 | 268 | 24 | 8 | 294 | 88 | -2 | +0 | -1 | +2 | +2 | 0.2 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 579 | 119 | 24 | 0 | 6 | 53 | 154 | 18 | 12 | 0 | 206 | 292 | 278 | 570 | 73 | 270 | 24 | 8 | 294 | 88 | -10 | +2 | -8 | +12 | +14 | 1.0 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1178 | 1010 | 238 | 39 | 8 | 12 | 106 | 260 | 52 | 46 | 11 | 236 | 339 | 326 | 665 | 90 | 302 | 22 | 9 | 298 | 88 | -6 | +1 | -3 | +7 | +9 | 0.8 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 557 | 132 | 22 | 4 | 7 | 58 | 143 | 29 | 25 | 6 | 237 | 340 | 329 | 669 | 92 | 303 | 22 | 9 | 298 | 88 | -9 | +1 | -5 | +12 | +14 | 1.2 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAArkansas Travelers · 214 PAwOBA .369 → .304 (−65)K% 18.7% → 22.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.69% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 22.80% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.68% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.978 | 8.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.14% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.978 | 4.37% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.25% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.007 | ×0.978 | 16.53% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.49% | ÷1.000 | ×0.840 | ×1.007 | ×0.978 | 7.85% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.46% | ÷1.000 | ×0.940 | ×1.007 | ×0.978 | 1.35% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.38% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 3.43% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.007.
Result: wOBA .369 → .304; ISO .198 → .163; BABIP .303 → .264. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 ROKACL Mariners · 17 PAwOBA .364 → .260 (−104)K% 17.6% → 25.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.65% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 25.41% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.76% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.940 | 6.86% |
| HBP% /PA | 17.65% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 11.94% |
| Singles /BIP | 33.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.940 | 25.69% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 19.5 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (7.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .364 → .260; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .333 → .257. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAArkansas Travelers · 176 PAwOBA .347 → .316 (−32)K% 15.3% → 17.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.34% | ÷1.061 | ×1.220 | — | — | 17.63% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.77% | ÷0.950 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 10.76% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.84% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.988 | 2.44% |
| Singles /BIP | 34.19% | ÷0.998 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×0.988 | 32.68% |
| Doubles /BIP | 1.71% | ÷0.914 | ×0.840 | ×1.050 | ×0.988 | 1.63% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.85% | ÷1.018 | ×0.940 | ×1.050 | ×0.988 | 0.82% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.800 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 60, 1B 100, 2B 83, 3B 104, K 112, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .347 → .316; ISO .028 → .028; BABIP .364 → .348. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AModesto Nuts · 193 PAwOBA .375 → .306 (−70)K% 16.1% → 22.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.06% | ÷0.993 | ×1.360 | — | — | 21.99% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.51% | ÷1.010 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.970 | 9.61% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.18% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.970 | 3.92% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.17% | ÷0.970 | ×0.920 | ×1.006 | ×0.970 | 22.36% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.17% | ÷1.076 | ×0.830 | ×1.006 | ×0.970 | 6.90% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.67% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×1.006 | ×0.970 | 1.29% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.83% | ÷0.897 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.970 | 0.72% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 79, 1B 94, 2B 115, 3B 130, K 99, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.0 → −3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.006.
Result: wOBA .375 → .306; ISO .119 → .096; BABIP .341 → .298. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Everett AquaSox · 91 PAwOBA .318 → .269 (−49)K% 13.2% → 17.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.19% | ÷1.003 | ×1.350 | — | — | 17.76% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.19% | ÷1.082 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.978 | 8.46% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.40% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×0.978 | 3.48% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.42% | ÷0.992 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×0.978 | 25.82% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.23% | ÷1.040 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×0.978 | 2.64% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.904 | ×0.820 | ×1.050 | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.175 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 135, 1B 98, 2B 108, 3B 81, K 101, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .318 → .269; ISO .027 → .023; BABIP .302 → .280. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKACL Mariners · 53 PAwOBA .364 → .261 (−103)K% 20.8% → 30.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.75% | ÷0.992 | ×1.440 | — | — | 30.13% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.32% | ÷0.989 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.955 | 6.78% |
| HBP% /PA | 11.32% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.955 | 7.78% |
| Singles /BIP | 33.33% | ÷0.987 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.955 | 26.44% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.993 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.955 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.955 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.33% | ÷0.945 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.955 | 2.63% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 97, 2B 99, 3B 100, K 98, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 19.5 → −4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .364 → .261; ISO .073 → .056; BABIP .345 → .272. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ROKACL Mariners · 15 PAwOBA .306 → .213 (−93)K% 20.0% → 29.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.00% | ÷0.984 | ×1.440 | — | — | 29.27% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.33% | ÷1.023 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.965 | 7.80% |
| HBP% /PA | 13.33% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 9.26% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷1.014 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.965 | 19.51% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.132 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.033 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.965 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 103, 2B 126, 3B 80, K 97, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 19.5 → −3.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .306 → .213; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .250 → .195. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).