Luke Dotson — OGILVIE

Luke Dotson P Hillsboro Hops

Age 22 LHP 6'4" / 210 lbs A+ peak 0.3 · 2028

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 31 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 98106vR 115

ERA4.28

FIP4.28

K%23.4%

BB%9.0%

K-BB%14.4%

ROS IP32

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 31 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5560

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Hillsboro Hops	34	0	45	196	64	15	3	0%	1.3	24.7%	8.8%	15.9%	1.9%	3.00	3.18	—
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Hillsboro Hops	34	0	45	196	64	15	3	0%	1.3	24.7%	8.8%	15.9%	1.9%	3.00	3.18	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A RAW	ARI	10	0	13	50	26	1	0	0%	1.3	52.0%	2.0%	50.0%	0.0%	1.42	-1.04	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	ARI	24	0	32	146	38	14	3	0%	1.3	26.0%	9.6%	16.4%	2.1%	3.62	3.24	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	ARI	44	0	46	193	47	17	6	0%	1.0	24.1%	8.6%	15.5%	2.9%	4.20	4.15	+0.2
2028	24	MLB MLE	ARI	45	0	47	198	49	17	6	0%	1.0	24.6%	8.4%	16.2%	2.9%	4.12	4.07	+0.3
2029	25	MLB MLE	ARI	45	0	48	201	50	17	6	0%	1.1	24.9%	8.3%	16.6%	2.9%	4.07	4.02	+0.3
2030	26	MLB MLE	ARI	45	0	48	201	50	17	6	0%	1.1	25.1%	8.3%	16.8%	2.9%	4.04	4.01	+0.3
2031	27	MLB MLE	ARI	45	0	47	198	50	17	6	0%	1.0	25.1%	8.4%	16.7%	3.0%	4.04	4.05	+0.3
2027	23	MLB CTX	ARI	22	0	23	97	23	8	3	0%	1.0	24.1%	8.6%	15.5%	2.9%	4.20	4.15	+0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	ARI	31	0	33	139	34	12	4	0%	1.1	24.6%	8.4%	16.2%	2.9%	4.12	4.07	+0.2
2029	25	MLB CTX	ARI	37	0	39	165	41	14	5	0%	1.1	24.9%	8.3%	16.6%	2.9%	4.07	4.02	+0.2
2030	26	MLB CTX	ARI	40	0	42	177	45	15	5	0%	1.1	25.1%	8.3%	16.8%	2.9%	4.04	4.01	+0.3
2031	27	MLB CTX	ARI	40	0	42	177	44	15	5	0%	1.1	25.1%	8.4%	16.7%	3.0%	4.04	4.05	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		169	0	178	751	187	63	22	0%	1.1	24.9%	8.4%	16.4%	2.9%	4.08	3.67	+1.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	210	71	25	0%	1.0	24.9%	8.4%	16.4%	2.9%	4.08	3.67	+2.1
Career	—	MLE		34	0	45	196	48	17	4	0%	1.3	24.7%	8.8%	15.9%	1.9%	3.00	3.18	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		151	0	200	871	216	77	17	0%	1.3	24.7%	8.8%	15.9%	1.9%	3.00	3.18	+1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luke Dotson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.28	23.4%	9.0%	3.0%	—	4.08	24.6%	16.1%	140	-0.20	—	—	—
Andrew Mitchell L 2018 · 3.75 FIP	23	SU	3.75	21.8%	7.5%	2.8%	.333	2.71	23.8%	15.8%	78	-1.04	2.51	119	88
Dominic LoBrutto L 2018 · 3.22 FIP	22	SU	3.22	21.4%	6.9%	1.9%	.333	3.44	17.8%	10.6%	84	+0.22	2.99	135	85
Garvin Alston L 2019 · 4.29 FIP	22	SU	4.29	19.7%	6.6%	3.7%	.333	4.74	16.4%	2.9%	84	+0.45	4.01	232	85
Hunter Schryver L 2018 · 3.58 FIP	23	SU	3.58	23.2%	6.8%	2.9%	.259	4.22	19.9%	7.5%	106	+0.64	3.58	206	84
Nick Dombkowski L 2021 · 4.48 FIP	22	SU	4.48	21.3%	8.8%	3.7%	.208	4.72	16.6%	7.5%	223	+0.24	3.71	420	84
Ronnie Glenn L 2015 · 3.47 FIP	22	SU	3.47	20.9%	9.9%	1.6%	.330	5.00	11.1%	-2.6%	171	+1.53	3.47	212	84
Marlon Perez L 2022 · 3.30 FIP	22	SU	3.30	20.5%	9.0%	1.4%	.250	4.15	22.9%	12.2%	103	+0.85	3.30	145	84
Brian Marconi L 2021 · 3.89 FIP	24	SU	3.89	25.3%	12.3%	2.5%	.265	5.02	20.3%	2.1%	57	+1.13	3.89	101	83
Jerry Vasto L 2015 · 3.28 FIP	23	SU	3.28	21.2%	9.5%	1.4%	.265	3.52	23.3%	12.8%	147	+0.24	2.89	206	83
Easton Lucas L 2021 · 4.29 FIP	24	SU	4.29	23.6%	9.2%	3.7%	.316	4.03	21.2%	11.6%	184	-0.26	3.43	311	83
Chris Cotton L 2015 · 3.69 FIP	24	SU	3.69	20.7%	7.0%	2.6%	.288	4.17	9.7%	3.3%	61	+0.48	3.69	128	83
Bryan Magdaleno L 2023 · 3.40 FIP	22	SU	3.40	23.9%	8.8%	2.2%	.375	3.84	25.0%	4.6%	122	+0.44	3.40	191	82
Michael Johnson L 2015 · 3.92 FIP	24	SU	3.92	20.6%	9.4%	2.5%	.260	4.70	17.6%	7.7%	185	+0.78	3.92	256	81
Jeff Singer L 2016 · 3.21 FIP	22	SU	3.21	21.3%	10.8%	1.0%	.263	3.63	22.6%	10.4%	174	+0.42	2.92	292	80
Ryne Slack L 2015 · 4.07 FIP	23	SU	4.07	18.8%	9.0%	2.6%	.293	5.00	15.4%	2.5%	142	+0.93	4.07	212	80
Keylan Killgore L 2019 · 4.23 FIP	22	SU	4.23	20.7%	12.7%	2.3%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	161	80
Daniel Zamora L 2016 · 3.57 FIP	23	SU	3.57	20.3%	10.8%	1.5%	.294	2.75	24.7%	16.8%	135	-0.82	2.15	310	80
Wesley Moore L 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SU	3.62	25.9%	13.2%	1.9%	.254	4.18	18.3%	5.6%	58	+0.56	3.62	111	80
Sam Moll L 2015 · 4.33 FIP	23	SU	4.33	21.8%	6.9%	4.0%	.240	3.78	17.1%	8.9%	120	-0.55	2.38	507	80
Mason Melotakis L 2016 · 3.32 FIP	25	SU	3.32	23.6%	9.2%	1.9%	.379	4.35	18.2%	7.1%	80	+1.03	3.32	142	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	44	24.6%	8.5%	1.13	4.12
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Chris Devenski ('24)	1.9	62	26.0%	6.9%	1.25	3.61