Luke Dotson
P
Hillsboro Hops
Age 22
LHP
6'4" / 210 lbs
A+
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION28 act + 20 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 98108vR 117
ERA4.30
FIP4.30
K%23.5%
BB%9.1%
K-BB%14.3%
ROS IP20
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 48 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | A+ | Hillsboro Hops | 23 | 0 | 28 | 112 | 41 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 27.5% | 6.2% | 21.3% | 2.2% | 2.57 | 2.79 | +0.6 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | ARI | 19 | 0 | 20 | 83 | 19 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.5% | 9.1% | 14.3% | 3.0% | 4.30 | 4.30 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 23.5% | 9.1% | 14.3% | 3.0% | 4.30 | 4.30 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 22 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 48 | 195 | 60 | 14 | 4 | — | — | 31.0% | 7.0% | 24.1% | 2.3% | 3.28 | 3.41 | +0.6 |
| 2026 FULL | 22 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 23.5% | 9.1% | 14.4% | 3.0% | 4.30 | 3.92 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | ARI | 19 | 0 | 20 | 86 | 21 | 7 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.2% | 8.7% | 15.5% | 2.9% | 4.22 | 4.16 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | ARI | 10 | 0 | 10 | 42 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.2% | 8.7% | 15.5% | 2.9% | 4.22 | 4.16 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 10 | 0 | 10 | 43 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.2% | 8.7% | 15.5% | 3.0% | 4.22 | 3.78 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 197 | 79 | 20 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.2% | 8.7% | 15.5% | 3.0% | 4.22 | 3.78 | +3.8 | ||
| Career | — | 23 | 0 | 28 | 112 | 31 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 27.5% | 6.2% | 21.3% | 2.2% | 2.57 | 2.79 | +0.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 164 | 0 | 200 | 800 | 220 | 49 | 18 | 0% | 1.2 | 27.5% | 6.2% | 21.3% | 2.2% | 2.57 | 2.79 | +6.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Luke Dotson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.30 | 23.5% | 9.1% | 3.0% | — | 4.16 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 20 | -0.14 | — | — | — |
| Andrew Mitchell L 2027 · 3.75 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.75 | 21.8% | 7.5% | 2.8% | .333 | 2.67 | 23.8% | 15.8% | 78 | -1.08 | 2.51 | 119 | 90 |
| Garvin Alston L 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.29 | 19.7% | 6.6% | 3.7% | .333 | 4.76 | 16.4% | 2.9% | 84 | +0.47 | 4.01 | 232 | 85 |
| Nick Dombkowski L 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.09 | 21.3% | 8.8% | 3.0% | .208 | 4.77 | 16.8% | 7.4% | 223 | +0.68 | 3.58 | 371 | 84 |
| Bryan Magdaleno L 2026 · 3.28 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.28 | 23.9% | 8.8% | 2.0% | .375 | 3.95 | 25.0% | 2.9% | 101 | +0.67 | 3.28 | 169 | 83 |
| Dominic LoBrutto L 2026 · 3.31 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.31 | 21.4% | 6.9% | 2.1% | .333 | 3.51 | 17.8% | 10.6% | 84 | +0.20 | 2.99 | 135 | 83 |
| Easton Lucas L 2028 · 4.21 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.21 | 23.6% | 9.2% | 3.5% | .316 | 4.00 | 21.8% | 11.4% | 184 | -0.21 | 3.49 | 311 | 82 |
| Marlon Perez L 2026 · 3.25 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.25 | 20.5% | 9.0% | 1.3% | .250 | 4.25 | 22.9% | 12.2% | 103 | +1.00 | 3.25 | 145 | 82 |
| Ronnie Glenn L 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.47 | 20.9% | 9.9% | 1.6% | .330 | 4.85 | 11.1% | -2.6% | 171 | +1.38 | 3.47 | 212 | 82 |
| Brian Marconi L 2028 · 3.61 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.61 | 25.3% | 12.3% | 2.0% | .265 | 4.96 | 20.3% | 2.1% | 57 | +1.35 | 3.61 | 101 | 81 |
| Hunter Schryver L 2027 · 3.54 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.54 | 23.2% | 6.8% | 2.8% | .259 | 4.09 | 19.9% | 7.5% | 106 | +0.55 | 3.54 | 206 | 81 |
| Jerry Vasto L 2027 · 3.18 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.18 | 21.2% | 9.5% | 1.2% | .265 | 3.39 | 23.3% | 12.8% | 147 | +0.21 | 2.84 | 206 | 80 |
| Wesley Moore L 2027 · 3.83 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.83 | 25.9% | 13.2% | 2.3% | .254 | 4.14 | 18.3% | 5.6% | 58 | +0.31 | 3.83 | 111 | 79 |
| Chris Cotton L 2028 · 3.66 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.66 | 20.7% | 7.0% | 2.6% | .288 | 4.13 | 9.7% | 3.3% | 61 | +0.47 | 3.66 | 128 | 79 |
| Jeff Singer L 2026 · 3.23 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.23 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 1.0% | .263 | 3.54 | 22.6% | 10.4% | 174 | +0.31 | 2.83 | 292 | 79 |
| Cody Beckman L 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.76 | 19.5% | 5.3% | 3.0% | .377 | 4.24 | 17.4% | 3.6% | 121 | +0.48 | 3.76 | 189 | 79 |
| Keylan Killgore L 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.30 | 20.7% | 12.7% | 2.5% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.82 | 161 | 79 |
| Mason Melotakis L 2029 · 3.12 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.12 | 23.6% | 9.2% | 1.6% | .379 | 4.28 | 18.2% | 7.1% | 80 | +1.16 | 3.12 | 142 | 78 |
| Michael Johnson L 2028 · 4.09 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.09 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .260 | 4.51 | 17.6% | 7.7% | 185 | +0.42 | 3.88 | 256 | 78 |
| Brandon Hughes L 2029 · 3.62 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.62 | 27.0% | 11.1% | 2.5% | .300 | 4.49 | 24.4% | 14.8% | 149 | +0.87 | 3.62 | 206 | 78 |
| Harry Gustin L 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.97 | 20.7% | 11.0% | 2.2% | .331 | 4.42 | 22.4% | 11.6% | 89 | +0.45 | 3.77 | 132 | 78 |