Justin Militello

P Palm Beach Cardinals

Age 23 RHP 6'1" / 190 lbs A

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	20	ROKATL	12	5	32	10.23	4.96	14.1%	15.9%	—	K 9.6% · BB 19.9% · FIP 5.52
2025	21	MIX2 levels	15	7	43	5.86	3.61	23.2%	14.7%	—	K 16.5% · BB 17.9% · FIP 4.92
2026	22	ASTL	31	0	39	7.85	4.64	20.7%	17.2%	—	K 15.3% · BB 20.3% · FIP 5.44
2027PROJ	23	MLBSTL	23	0	24	5.83	5.83	17.9%	18.3%	-0.3
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBSTL	16	0	17	5.48	5.35	19.4%	15.5%	-0.2

Next 2 projected WAR -0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsJordan Brink (age 23) · Hudson Leach (age 22) · James Acuna (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 144136vR 128

ERA5.83

FIP5.83

K%17.9%

BB%18.3%

K-BB%-0.4%

Proj IP24

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 24 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	20	ROK MLE	FCL Braves	12	5	32	170	24	27	2	42%	2.6	9.6%	19.9%	-10.3%	1.3%	10.23	5.52	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	FCL Braves	12	5	32	170	24	27	2	42%	2.6	9.6%	19.9%	-10.3%	1.3%	10.23	5.52	—
2024	20	ROK RAW	FCL Braves	12	5	32	170	24	27	2	42%	2.6	14.1%	15.9%	-1.8%	1.2%	10.23	4.96	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	7	43	190	44	28	2	47%	2.9	16.5%	17.9%	-1.4%	1.7%	5.86	4.92	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	7	43	190	44	28	2	47%	2.9	16.5%	17.9%	-1.4%	1.7%	5.86	4.92	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	7	43	190	44	28	2	47%	2.9	23.2%	14.7%	8.4%	1.1%	5.86	3.61	—
2026	22	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	31	0	39	203	42	35	3	0%	1.3	15.3%	20.3%	-5.0%	1.9%	7.85	5.44	—
2026	22	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	31	0	39	203	42	35	3	0%	1.3	15.3%	20.3%	-5.0%	1.9%	7.85	5.44	—
2026	22	A RAW	Palm Beach Cardinals	31	0	39	203	42	35	3	0%	1.3	20.7%	17.2%	3.4%	1.5%	7.85	4.64	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	STL	23	0	24	101	18	19	3	0%	1.0	17.9%	18.3%	-0.4%	2.8%	5.83	5.83	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	STL	38	0	40	168	33	26	5	0%	1.0	19.4%	15.5%	3.9%	2.8%	5.48	5.35	-0.4
2028	24	MLB CTX	STL	16	0	17	72	14	11	2	0%	1.1	19.4%	15.5%	3.9%	2.8%	5.48	5.35	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		16	0	17	72	14	11	2	0%	1.1	19.4%	15.5%	3.9%	2.8%	5.48	4.97	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	165	130	24	0%	1.1	19.4%	15.5%	3.9%	2.8%	5.48	4.97	-1.0
Career	—	MLE		58	12	114	563	79	109	9	21%	2.0	14.0%	19.4%	-5.4%	1.7%	7.76	5.29	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		102	21	200	991	138	192	17	21%	2.0	14.0%	19.4%	-5.4%	1.7%	7.76	5.29	-1.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Justin Militello (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.83	17.9%	18.3%	2.8%	—	5.35	19.4%	3.9%	40	-0.48	—	—	—
Jordan Brink R 2016 · 5.96 FIP	23	SW	5.96	18.3%	19.2%	3.6%	.233	—	—	—	—	—	3.99	132	85
Hudson Leach R 2024 · 5.37 FIP	22	SU	5.37	20.5%	20.0%	2.7%	.261	4.54	20.9%	3.1%	71	-0.83	2.77	101	85
James Acuna R 2021 · 5.12 FIP	23	SU	5.12	21.3%	17.0%	3.0%	.302	4.33	19.4%	4.6%	60	-0.79	4.33	107	84
Michael Perez R 2024 · 5.44 FIP	21	SU	5.44	18.3%	16.1%	3.4%	.296	4.65	23.4%	7.7%	132	-0.79	4.38	153	84
Junior Rincon R 2015 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	17.8%	13.8%	2.9%	.318	3.75	17.6%	5.1%	82	-1.18	3.52	113	84
Christian Ruebeck R 2024 · 6.03 FIP	23	SU	6.03	20.6%	24.4%	2.9%	.265	4.57	21.6%	1.9%	70	-1.46	4.35	104	83
Jackson Rose R 2018 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	17.3%	17.2%	2.8%	.267	4.77	23.5%	16.5%	56	-0.55	3.33	147	83
Yordy Cabrera R 2016 · 4.99 FIP	25	SU	4.99	15.8%	17.2%	1.9%	.321	4.17	13.7%	2.7%	140	-0.82	3.43	159	83
Garrett Apker R 2023 · 6.24 FIP	23	SW	6.24	15.0%	18.8%	3.7%	.343	4.93	18.9%	5.2%	53	-1.31	4.01	101	83
Brett Lockwood R 2021 · 5.46 FIP	24	SU	5.46	16.2%	15.5%	3.2%	.312	4.58	11.0%	-6.3%	79	-0.88	4.24	132	83
Franklyn German R 2003 · 5.17 FIP	23	SU	5.17	18.5%	18.9%	2.2%	.313	5.27	13.1%	0.1%	86	+0.10	3.37	152	82
Carlos Contreras R 2014 · 4.77 FIP	23	SU	4.77	20.2%	18.1%	2.0%	.304	4.35	18.4%	5.0%	107	-0.42	4.29	127	82
Jake Eddington R 2024 · 5.02 FIP	23	SW	5.02	18.8%	24.1%	0.8%	.316	4.83	16.6%	-1.5%	105	-0.19	4.70	135	82
Will McAffer R 2019 · 4.68 FIP	22	SU	4.68	20.4%	18.1%	1.8%	.270	5.96	18.5%	-4.0%	77	+1.28	4.68	133	82
Derrick Turnbow R 2000 · 6.58 FIP	22	SU	6.58	13.8%	19.9%	3.9%	.257	1.43	28.3%	22.6%	15	-5.15	1.43	245	82
Jeff Soptic R 2015 · 5.30 FIP	24	SU	5.30	15.5%	17.2%	2.5%	.237	5.52	13.6%	-1.7%	68	+0.22	5.30	124	82
Zach Barnes R 2022 · 5.35 FIP	23	SU	5.35	18.2%	22.0%	1.8%	.378	5.03	15.0%	1.5%	119	-0.32	4.90	145	81
Josh Wolf R 2024 · 5.28 FIP	23	SU	5.28	18.4%	20.1%	2.2%	.344	5.77	18.5%	-5.0%	57	+0.49	4.16	226	81
Roberto Espinosa R 2015 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	18.9%	18.6%	1.9%	.273	4.43	14.8%	2.2%	77	-0.49	4.32	117	81
Will Varmette R 2024 · 5.06 FIP	21	SU	5.06	22.8%	19.3%	2.6%	.302	5.13	16.1%	2.3%	135	+0.07	4.69	182	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	32	18.9%	16.6%	1.09	5.61
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
John Parrish ('10)	1.4	46	17.6%	14.8%	0.88	4.51
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*