Jose Serrano

P Fayetteville Woodpeckers

Age 23 RHP 6'2" / 212 lbs A

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	20	ROKDSL Astros Or…	13	12	48	2.62	2.83	22.7%	10.8%	—	K 15.4% · BB 13.5% · FIP 3.94
2025	21	MIX2 levels	11	0	13	4.05	3.18	25.9%	10.3%	—	K 18.7% · BB 12.3% · FIP 4.55
2026	22	MIX3 levels	18	1	58	6.48	4.78	20.4%	12.9%	—	K 16.3% · BB 17.7% · FIP 5.04
2027PROJ	23	MLBHOU	19	0	20	5.43	5.43	18.8%	15.5%	-0.2
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBHOU	22	0	23	5.16	5.05	20.2%	13.5%	-0.1
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBHOU	34	0	36	4.94	4.83	20.9%	12.2%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsTyler Santana (age 23) · Sam Ryan (age 22) · Jarret Whorff (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 136128vR 120

ERA5.43

FIP5.43

K%18.8%

BB%15.5%

K-BB%3.4%

Proj IP20

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL HOU Blue	7	0	11	52	7	4	1	0%	1.6	9.2%	9.6%	-0.5%	2.7%	4.91	5.04	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	DSL HOU Blue	7	0	11	52	7	4	1	0%	1.6	13.5%	7.7%	5.8%	1.9%	4.91	4.10	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	3	0	3	15	4	1	0	0%	1.1	26.7%	6.7%	20.0%	0.0%	5.40	1.69	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	DSL Astros Blue	3	0	3	15	4	1	0	0%	1.1	26.7%	6.7%	20.0%	0.0%	5.40	1.60	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Orange	13	12	48	203	46	22	1	92%	3.7	15.4%	13.5%	1.9%	0.8%	2.62	3.94	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Orange	13	12	48	203	46	22	1	92%	3.7	15.4%	13.5%	1.9%	0.8%	2.62	3.94	—
2024	20	ROK RAW	DSL Astros Orange	13	12	48	203	46	22	1	92%	3.7	22.7%	10.8%	11.8%	0.5%	2.62	2.83	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	0	13	58	15	6	1	0%	1.2	18.7%	12.3%	6.4%	2.7%	4.05	4.55	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	0	13	58	15	6	1	0%	1.2	18.7%	12.3%	6.4%	2.7%	4.05	4.55	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	11	0	13	58	15	6	1	0%	1.2	25.9%	10.3%	15.5%	1.7%	4.05	3.18	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	1	58	280	57	36	8	6%	3.2	16.3%	17.7%	-1.4%	1.9%	6.48	5.04	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	1	58	280	57	36	8	6%	3.2	16.3%	17.7%	-1.4%	1.9%	6.48	5.04	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	18	1	58	280	57	36	8	6%	3.2	20.4%	12.9%	7.5%	2.9%	6.48	4.78	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	HOU	19	0	20	84	16	13	2	0%	1.1	18.8%	15.5%	3.4%	2.9%	5.43	5.43	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	HOU	51	0	54	227	46	31	6	0%	1.1	20.2%	13.5%	6.7%	2.9%	5.16	5.05	-0.3
2029	25	MLB MLE	HOU	52	0	54	230	48	28	7	0%	1.0	20.9%	12.2%	8.7%	2.9%	4.94	4.83	-0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	HOU	22	0	23	97	20	13	3	0%	1.0	20.2%	13.5%	6.7%	2.9%	5.16	5.05	-0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	HOU	34	0	36	152	32	19	4	0%	1.1	20.9%	12.2%	8.7%	2.9%	4.94	4.83	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		56	0	59	250	51	32	7	0%	1.1	20.6%	12.7%	7.9%	2.9%	5.03	4.53	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	173	108	24	0%	1.1	20.6%	12.7%	7.9%	2.9%	5.03	4.53	+0.0
Career	—	MLE		52	13	134	608	96	90	10	25%	2.6	15.9%	14.8%	1.0%	1.6%	4.70	4.54	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		78	19	200	907	144	135	15	25%	2.6	15.9%	14.8%	1.0%	1.6%	4.70	4.54	-0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jose Serrano (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.43	18.8%	15.5%	2.9%	—	4.94	20.5%	7.7%	108	-0.49	—	—	—
Tyler Santana R 2021 · 4.28 FIP	23	SU	4.28	20.3%	15.1%	1.8%	.333	4.37	16.0%	5.7%	259	+0.09	3.37	401	85
Sam Ryan R 2021 · 4.38 FIP	22	SW	4.38	16.4%	14.7%	1.5%	.328	3.85	13.7%	2.9%	49	-0.53	3.80	178	85
Jarret Whorff R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	24	SW	4.24	19.5%	14.2%	1.8%	.287	4.34	19.4%	10.8%	193	+0.10	3.88	257	82
Junior Rincon R 2015 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	17.8%	13.8%	2.9%	.318	3.75	17.6%	5.1%	82	-1.18	3.52	113	82
Hayden Snelsire R 2024 · 5.10 FIP	23	SU	5.10	18.9%	13.8%	3.4%	.272	4.28	20.0%	13.7%	135	-0.82	3.83	178	82
Dylan Heid R 2022 · 4.70 FIP	24	SU	4.70	21.6%	16.9%	2.4%	.287	3.33	22.6%	9.0%	103	-1.37	2.66	135	81
Blake Quinn R 2017 · 5.41 FIP	23	SW	5.41	16.9%	15.3%	3.3%	.328	4.42	17.1%	3.3%	48	-0.99	4.42	122	80
Radhames Liz R 2007 · 5.07 FIP	23	SW	5.07	19.7%	18.0%	2.5%	.301	5.66	14.5%	2.3%	84	+0.59	2.81	219	80
Orlando Ortiz-Mayr R 2022 · 4.61 FIP	24	SU	4.61	21.0%	13.2%	2.9%	.341	4.74	15.7%	4.0%	343	+0.13	3.65	492	80
Blake Holub R 2022 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	21.7%	15.3%	2.4%	.339	3.73	23.4%	12.7%	156	-0.82	3.22	258	80
Jhonny Polanco R 2015 · 4.75 FIP	23	SW	4.75	18.9%	14.2%	2.6%	.283	4.06	21.3%	5.7%	48	-0.69	4.06	116	79
Alec Barger R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SW	4.55	21.7%	13.6%	2.8%	.289	4.17	21.3%	9.4%	148	-0.38	3.85	242	79
Dylan King R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	22	SW	4.43	21.4%	20.5%	1.0%	.233	4.79	27.1%	17.7%	90	+0.36	3.78	121	79
Jordan Brink R 2016 · 5.96 FIP	23	SW	5.96	18.3%	19.2%	3.6%	.233	—	—	—	—	—	3.99	132	78
Seth McClung R 2003 · 5.63 FIP	22	SW	5.63	15.0%	14.4%	3.6%	.241	5.29	15.3%	2.8%	212	-0.34	2.52	430	78
Hansel Rosario R 2024 · 5.54 FIP	21	SW	5.54	19.2%	22.2%	2.3%	.306	7.16	16.3%	-21.0%	19	+1.62	5.25	107	78
Garrett Apker R 2023 · 6.24 FIP	23	SW	6.24	15.0%	18.8%	3.7%	.343	4.93	18.9%	5.2%	53	-1.31	4.01	101	77
Ryan Vogelsong R 2001 · 5.34 FIP	24	SU	5.34	14.6%	11.6%	3.7%	.287	4.78	14.9%	5.7%	155	-0.56	3.14	1,184	77
Austin Amaral R 2024 · 5.94 FIP	22	SU	5.94	12.1%	14.4%	3.7%	.254	3.55	18.6%	6.3%	113	-2.39	3.53	136	77
Tayler Scott R 2015 · 4.48 FIP	23	SU	4.48	16.7%	12.7%	2.1%	.309	4.09	17.9%	6.2%	162	-0.39	3.17	528	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.6	43	20.3%	13.2%	1.11	5.11
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43