Jaren Warwick

P Rancho Cucamonga Quakes

Age 25 RHP 6'3" / 175 lbs A

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	ASEA	12	17	4.24	2.75	23.4%	13.0%	—	K 17.3% · BB 15.3% · FIP 3.58
2025	23	ASEA	42	57	5.53	2.57	26.4%	12.3%	—	K 19.5% · BB 14.5% · FIP 3.54
2026	24	MIX2 levels	40	60	4.77	3.58	24.9%	15.4%	—	K 18.6% · BB 18.1% · FIP 4.56
2027PROJ	25	MLBLAA	67	70	5.65	5.65	18.3%	18.1%	-0.8
2028PROJ43% MLB	26	MLBLAA	29	30	5.51	5.50	19.0%	17.2%	-0.3
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBLAA	41	43	5.44	5.45	19.3%	16.6%	-0.4

Next 3 projected WAR -1.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control30Command40

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsJake Gilbert (age 25) · Jeff Ames (age 25) · Aroni Nina (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 140132vR 124

ERA5.65

FIP5.65

K%18.3%

BB%18.1%

K-BB%0.2%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL3030

CMD4040

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	22	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	12	0	17	77	18	10	0	0%	1.4	17.3%	15.3%	2.0%	0.0%	4.24	3.58	—
2024	22	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	12	0	17	77	18	10	0	0%	1.4	17.3%	15.3%	2.0%	0.0%	4.24	3.58	—
2024	22	A RAW	Inland Empire 66ers	12	0	17	77	18	10	0	0%	1.4	23.4%	13.0%	10.4%	0.0%	4.24	2.75	—
2025	23	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	42	0	57	269	71	33	1	0%	1.4	19.5%	14.5%	5.1%	0.5%	5.53	3.54	—
2025	23	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	42	0	57	269	71	33	1	0%	1.4	19.5%	14.5%	5.1%	0.5%	5.53	3.54	—
2025	23	A RAW	Inland Empire 66ers	42	0	57	269	71	33	1	0%	1.4	26.4%	12.3%	14.1%	0.4%	5.53	2.57	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	60	285	71	44	3	0%	1.5	18.6%	18.1%	0.5%	1.4%	4.77	4.56	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	60	285	71	44	3	0%	1.5	18.6%	18.1%	0.5%	1.4%	4.77	4.56	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	0	60	285	71	44	3	0%	1.5	24.9%	15.4%	9.5%	1.1%	4.77	3.58	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	LAA	67	0	70	296	54	53	8	0%	1.0	18.3%	18.1%	0.2%	2.6%	5.65	5.65	-0.8
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	LAA	67	0	70	296	56	51	8	0%	1.0	19.0%	17.2%	1.8%	2.6%	5.51	5.50	-0.7
2029	27	MLB MLE	LAA	66	0	69	291	56	48	8	0%	1.0	19.3%	16.6%	2.7%	2.7%	5.44	5.45	-0.7
2030	28	MLB MLE	LAA	64	0	67	282	55	46	8	0%	1.0	19.4%	16.4%	3.0%	2.8%	5.44	5.48	-0.7
2031	29	MLB MLE	LAA	61	0	64	270	52	44	8	0%	1.0	19.2%	16.4%	2.8%	3.0%	5.51	5.58	-0.7
2028	26	MLB CTX	LAA	29	0	30	127	24	22	3	0%	1.0	19.0%	17.2%	1.8%	2.6%	5.51	5.50	-0.3
2029	27	MLB CTX	LAA	41	0	43	182	35	30	5	0%	1.0	19.3%	16.6%	2.7%	2.7%	5.44	5.45	-0.4
2030	28	MLB CTX	LAA	48	0	50	211	41	35	6	0%	1.0	19.4%	16.4%	3.0%	2.8%	5.44	5.48	-0.5
2031	29	MLB CTX	LAA	50	0	52	220	42	36	7	0%	1.0	19.2%	16.4%	2.8%	3.0%	5.51	5.58	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		167	0	175	741	143	123	21	0%	1.1	19.3%	16.6%	2.6%	2.8%	5.47	5.12	-1.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	163	140	24	0%	1.1	19.3%	16.6%	2.6%	2.8%	5.47	5.12	-1.3
Career	—	MLE		94	0	134	631	119	102	5	0%	1.4	18.8%	16.2%	2.6%	0.8%	5.02	4.01	-3.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		140	0	200	939	177	152	8	0%	1.4	18.8%	16.2%	2.6%	0.8%	5.02	4.01	-2.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jaren Warwick (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.65	18.3%	18.1%	2.6%	—	5.48	19.2%	2.5%	206	-0.17	—	—	—
Jake Gilbert R 2022 · 4.65 FIP	25	SU	4.65	18.2%	16.2%	1.9%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	103	87
Jeff Ames R 2016 · 5.17 FIP	25	SU	5.17	18.0%	16.1%	2.8%	.229	4.34	25.2%	11.2%	142	-0.83	3.85	272	87
Aroni Nina R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	25	SU	4.90	16.8%	20.5%	1.1%	.312	3.04	18.8%	8.7%	64	-1.86	2.68	115	85
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.40	16.3%	4.0%	182	-0.16	3.45	237	85
Haden Erbe R 2024 · 5.28 FIP	25	SU	5.28	18.4%	16.5%	3.0%	.320	5.19	17.8%	0.5%	40	-0.09	5.19	116	85
Ray Gaither R 2023 · 4.89 FIP	25	SU	4.89	18.1%	16.4%	2.3%	.278	4.13	18.4%	7.3%	90	-0.76	3.84	164	84
Cole Hillier R 2024 · 4.64 FIP	23	SU	4.64	16.9%	14.7%	2.0%	.297	4.45	18.1%	4.5%	111	-0.19	3.80	169	83
Andrew McInvale R 2022 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	17.6%	15.9%	2.8%	.324	6.44	24.5%	10.0%	23	+1.29	4.92	103	83
Lukas Schiraldi R 2018 · 5.00 FIP	25	SU	5.00	18.7%	19.3%	1.9%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	319	83
Ryan Jensen R 2023 · 4.61 FIP	25	SU	4.61	20.9%	17.0%	2.0%	.329	4.12	24.4%	7.6%	107	-0.49	3.92	311	83
Danny Reynolds R 2016 · 4.72 FIP	25	SU	4.72	16.6%	16.8%	1.6%	.263	3.71	16.0%	4.3%	88	-1.01	3.29	165	83
José A. Váldez R 2015 · 4.55 FIP	25	SU	4.55	15.3%	15.3%	1.5%	.279	4.32	22.3%	9.9%	167	-0.23	4.02	328	83
Christian Ruebeck R 2024 · 6.03 FIP	23	SU	6.03	20.6%	24.4%	2.9%	.265	4.57	21.6%	1.9%	70	-1.46	4.35	104	83
Jonathan Teaney R 2019 · 5.65 FIP	23	SU	5.65	16.4%	15.7%	3.5%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.77	108	82
Cody Scroggins R 2022 · 4.50 FIP	25	SU	4.50	20.5%	16.2%	2.0%	.351	3.78	14.2%	4.6%	18	-0.72	3.78	108	82
Miguel Rosario R 2017 · 4.83 FIP	24	SU	4.83	16.4%	18.6%	1.4%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	197	82
Rob Huber R 2016 · 4.73 FIP	24	SU	4.73	15.7%	14.7%	2.0%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.90	117	82
Livan Reinoso R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	25	SU	4.90	15.1%	17.7%	1.5%	.229	5.67	16.1%	-2.1%	99	+0.77	4.36	219	82
Luis García R 2013 · 4.92 FIP	26	SU	4.92	16.7%	16.7%	2.0%	.270	3.68	20.3%	9.3%	151	-1.24	2.33	662	82
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	68	19.0%	17.0%	1.06	5.51
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Dave Jolly ('53-'57, -0 WAR*)	1.5	58	20.2%*	14.3%*	0.91*	4.33*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*