Zack Qin — OGILVIE

Zack Qin P Lake Elsinore Storm

Age 21 LHP 6'1" / 198 lbs A peak 0.3 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 19 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 106114vR 122

ERA4.67

FIP4.67

K%22.7%

BB%11.5%

K-BB%11.2%

ROS IP19

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 19 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5560

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	10	5	32	149	34	19	2	50%	3.2	15.5%	15.9%	-0.4%	2.1%	5.62	4.94	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	10	5	32	149	34	19	2	50%	3.2	15.5%	15.9%	-0.4%	2.1%	5.62	4.94	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	ACL Padres	10	5	32	149	34	19	2	50%	3.2	22.8%	12.8%	10.1%	1.3%	5.62	3.57	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	2	18	74	23	5	1	18%	1.6	31.1%	6.8%	24.3%	1.4%	1.50	2.07	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	2	18	74	23	5	1	18%	1.6	31.1%	6.8%	24.3%	1.4%	1.50	2.07	—
2024	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	11	2	18	74	23	5	1	18%	1.6	31.1%	6.8%	24.3%	1.4%	1.50	2.10	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	18	4	52	223	65	21	7	22%	2.9	20.6%	11.2%	9.4%	4.2%	4.53	5.07	—
YTD	21	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	18	4	52	223	65	21	7	22%	2.9	20.6%	11.2%	9.4%	4.2%	4.53	5.07	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	ROK RAW	SD	7	3	22	88	36	4	2	43%	3.1	40.9%	4.5%	36.4%	2.3%	1.25	1.47	—
2026	21	A RAW	SD	11	1	30	135	29	17	5	9%	2.7	21.5%	12.6%	8.9%	3.7%	6.90	4.91	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	SD	51	0	53	224	53	23	7	0%	1.0	23.7%	10.4%	13.3%	2.9%	4.50	4.41	+0.1
2028	23	MLB MLE	SD	52	0	55	233	57	22	7	0%	1.1	24.4%	9.7%	14.7%	2.9%	4.34	4.23	+0.2
2029	24	MLB MLE	SD	54	0	56	239	59	22	7	0%	1.0	24.9%	9.2%	15.7%	2.9%	4.21	4.12	+0.3
2030	25	MLB MLE	SD	54	0	57	242	61	22	7	0%	1.1	25.2%	8.9%	16.3%	2.9%	4.12	4.05	+0.3
2031	26	MLB MLE	SD	54	0	57	242	61	22	7	0%	1.1	25.4%	8.9%	16.5%	2.9%	4.07	4.03	+0.4
2032	27	MLB MLE	SD	54	0	56	238	60	21	7	0%	1.0	25.4%	9.0%	16.4%	2.9%	4.07	4.07	+0.3
2027	22	MLB CTX	SD	25	0	26	110	26	11	3	0%	1.0	23.7%	10.4%	13.3%	2.9%	4.50	4.41	+0.0
2028	23	MLB CTX	SD	38	0	40	169	41	16	5	0%	1.1	24.4%	9.7%	14.7%	2.9%	4.34	4.23	+0.2
2029	24	MLB CTX	SD	45	0	47	198	49	18	6	0%	1.0	24.9%	9.2%	15.7%	2.9%	4.21	4.12	+0.2
2030	25	MLB CTX	SD	49	0	51	215	54	19	6	0%	1.0	25.2%	8.9%	16.3%	2.9%	4.12	4.05	+0.3
2031	26	MLB CTX	SD	50	0	52	220	56	20	6	0%	1.0	25.4%	8.9%	16.5%	2.9%	4.07	4.03	+0.3
2032	27	MLB CTX	SD	50	0	52	220	56	20	6	0%	1.0	25.4%	9.0%	16.4%	2.9%	4.07	4.07	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		255	0	268	1132	282	105	33	0%	1.1	24.9%	9.2%	15.7%	2.9%	4.19	3.75	+2.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	210	78	25	0%	1.1	24.9%	9.2%	15.7%	2.9%	4.19	3.75	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		39	11	102	446	92	54	13	28%	2.6	20.6%	12.1%	8.6%	3.0%	4.34	4.53	+1.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		77	22	200	877	181	106	26	28%	2.6	20.6%	12.1%	8.6%	3.0%	4.34	4.53	+0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Zack Qin (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.67	22.7%	11.5%	3.0%	—	4.25	24.3%	14.6%	165	-0.42	—	—	—
Taylor Hearn L 2016 · 3.99 FIP	21	SW	3.99	26.1%	10.6%	3.2%	.347	4.01	22.3%	11.7%	236	+0.02	3.72	572	83
Matt Osterberg L 2021 · 3.88 FIP	22	SW	3.88	20.2%	12.3%	1.7%	.255	4.04	15.6%	9.3%	274	+0.16	3.70	294	81
Sean Mellen L 2021 · 4.59 FIP	23	SU	4.59	21.5%	12.1%	3.2%	.364	4.01	21.3%	10.9%	55	-0.58	4.01	101	80
Josh Simpson L 2021 · 4.57 FIP	23	SW	4.57	23.5%	11.5%	3.6%	.290	3.29	32.8%	19.4%	102	-1.28	3.04	255	79
Lucas Knowles L 2021 · 3.90 FIP	23	SW	3.90	20.5%	12.9%	1.6%	.366	4.22	18.5%	9.4%	177	+0.32	3.37	308	79
Dante Biasi L 2021 · 4.91 FIP	23	SW	4.91	21.5%	12.6%	3.7%	.251	5.70	19.3%	2.3%	153	+0.79	4.91	224	78
Josh Hendrickson L 2019 · 3.80 FIP	21	SW	3.80	21.8%	6.7%	3.1%	.250	4.67	19.3%	10.9%	110	+0.87	3.80	365	78
Chase Watkins L 2022 · 3.75 FIP	22	SU	3.75	20.6%	11.8%	1.7%	.346	4.34	17.7%	9.0%	156	+0.59	3.30	232	77
Ronny Agustin L 2016 · 3.70 FIP	21	SU	3.70	22.1%	9.4%	2.3%	.329	3.91	20.2%	3.5%	81	+0.21	3.11	158	77
Destin Dotson L 2021 · 3.90 FIP	21	SU	3.90	22.3%	12.2%	2.1%	.288	5.84	23.0%	3.1%	48	+1.94	2.90	113	75
Manuel Medina L 2023 · 5.09 FIP	21	SU	5.09	22.3%	11.2%	4.5%	.319	2.79	24.2%	15.4%	78	-2.30	1.26	157	74
Shane McCain L 2015 · 4.34 FIP	23	SU	4.34	19.8%	9.7%	3.0%	.324	4.75	16.6%	10.0%	125	+0.41	4.34	201	74
Jake Higginbotham L 2018 · 5.15 FIP	22	SU	5.15	17.2%	10.6%	3.9%	.256	4.77	18.8%	6.4%	59	-0.38	3.30	335	74
Cameron Ming L 2018 · 3.80 FIP	22	SU	3.80	17.7%	7.1%	2.4%	.308	5.54	14.3%	4.9%	49	+1.74	3.80	111	73
Connor Curlis L 2018 · 3.49 FIP	21	SU	3.49	19.3%	10.8%	1.2%	.306	6.08	16.6%	4.6%	172	+2.59	3.49	309	73
Ronnie Glenn L 2015 · 3.47 FIP	22	SU	3.47	20.9%	9.9%	1.6%	.330	5.00	11.1%	-2.6%	171	+1.53	3.47	212	72
Kenny Rosenberg L 2016 · 3.65 FIP	21	SU	3.65	20.8%	6.9%	2.6%	.313	4.64	17.3%	6.9%	361	+0.99	3.44	755	72
Vance Tatum L 2016 · 5.04 FIP	21	SU	5.04	17.2%	9.7%	3.9%	.319	5.06	15.6%	2.3%	85	+0.02	4.90	116	72
Luis Paulino L 2019 · 3.54 FIP	21	SU	3.54	19.1%	10.5%	1.3%	.269	2.75	20.2%	9.5%	50	-0.79	2.57	103	72
Zach Morris L 2015 · 3.59 FIP	22	SU	3.59	18.5%	10.1%	1.4%	.286	4.38	13.9%	2.4%	84	+0.79	3.34	109	72

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.8	51	24.7%	9.5%	1.12	4.24
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Archie Bradley ('21)	2.2	74	23.2%	9.8%	0.85	3.93