Zack Qin
P
ACL Padres
Age 21
LHP
6'1" / 198 lbs
ROK
peak 0.1 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION31 act + 19 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 99109vR 118
ERA4.34
FIP4.34
K%23.3%
BB%9.3%
K-BB%13.9%
ROS IP19
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 50 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | ACL Padres | 10 | 5 | 32 | 149 | 34 | 19 | 2 | 50% | 3.2 | 15.5% | 15.9% | -0.4% | 2.3% | 5.62 | 5.06 | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | ACL Padres | 10 | 5 | 32 | 149 | 34 | 19 | 2 | 50% | 3.2 | 22.8% | 12.8% | 10.1% | 1.3% | 5.62 | 3.57 | — |
| 2024 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 11 | 2 | 18 | 74 | 23 | 5 | 1 | 18% | 1.6 | 31.1% | 6.8% | 24.3% | 1.4% | 1.50 | 2.07 | — |
| 2024 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 11 | 2 | 18 | 74 | 23 | 5 | 1 | 18% | 1.6 | 31.1% | 6.8% | 24.3% | 1.4% | 1.50 | 2.10 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | A | Lake Elsinore Storm | 10 | 3 | 31 | 125 | 43 | 9 | 3 | 30% | 3.1 | 27.8% | 5.7% | 22.1% | 3.2% | 1.76 | 3.22 | +0.5 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | SD | 18 | 0 | 19 | 80 | 19 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 13.9% | 3.0% | 4.34 | 4.34 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | SD | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 23.3% | 9.3% | 13.9% | 3.0% | 4.34 | 4.34 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 21 | MLB | SD | — | — | 50 | 205 | 62 | 16 | 5 | — | — | 30.0% | 8.0% | 22.0% | 2.6% | 2.75 | 3.65 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | SD | 19 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 20 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.2% | 8.8% | 15.4% | 2.9% | 4.23 | 4.16 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | SD | 10 | 0 | 10 | 42 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.2% | 8.8% | 15.4% | 2.9% | 4.23 | 4.16 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 9 | 0 | 10 | 42 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.2% | 8.8% | 15.4% | 2.9% | 4.23 | 3.78 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 203 | 81 | 20 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.2% | 8.8% | 15.4% | 2.9% | 4.23 | 3.78 | +3.8 | ||
| Career | — | 31 | 10 | 81 | 348 | 81 | 36 | 8 | 32% | 2.6 | 23.2% | 10.3% | 12.9% | 2.4% | 3.24 | 3.76 | +1.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 77 | 25 | 200 | 863 | 201 | 89 | 21 | 32% | 2.6 | 23.2% | 10.3% | 12.9% | 2.4% | 3.24 | 3.76 | +3.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Zack Qin (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.34 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 3.0% | — | 4.16 | 24.2% | 15.4% | 20 | -0.18 | — | — | — |
| Taylor Hearn L 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 21 | SW | 3.88 | 26.1% | 10.6% | 3.0% | .347 | 3.97 | 22.3% | 11.7% | 236 | +0.09 | 3.66 | 572 | 86 |
| Josh Hendrickson L 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 21 | SW | 3.99 | 21.8% | 6.7% | 3.4% | .250 | 4.39 | 19.3% | 10.9% | 110 | +0.40 | 3.93 | 319 | 83 |
| Carlos Peña L 2025 · 3.17 FIP | 20 | SW | 3.17 | 23.8% | 10.5% | 1.4% | .301 | 3.85 | 19.1% | 10.2% | 145 | +0.68 | 3.17 | 577 | 82 |
| Sam Long L 2026 · 3.26 FIP | 21 | SW | 3.26 | 20.7% | 9.8% | 1.2% | .371 | 4.18 | 21.3% | 13.1% | 97 | +0.92 | 3.08 | 446 | 79 |
| Matt Osterberg L 2027 · 3.89 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.89 | 20.2% | 12.3% | 1.7% | .255 | 4.14 | 15.6% | 9.3% | 274 | +0.25 | 3.59 | 294 | 78 |
| Josh Simpson L 2028 · 4.43 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.43 | 23.5% | 11.5% | 3.4% | .290 | 3.28 | 33.4% | 19.3% | 102 | -1.15 | 3.07 | 247 | 77 |
| Jacob Lopez L 2025 · 3.66 FIP | 20 | SW | 3.66 | 24.3% | 7.9% | 2.9% | .302 | 3.58 | 30.4% | 21.6% | 55 | -0.08 | 3.50 | 478 | 77 |
| Harry Gustin L 2027 · 3.97 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.97 | 20.7% | 11.0% | 2.2% | .331 | 4.42 | 22.4% | 11.6% | 89 | +0.45 | 3.77 | 132 | 76 |
| Adrian Gusman L 2028 · 3.57 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.57 | 16.5% | 6.6% | 1.9% | .280 | 3.65 | 15.0% | 7.2% | 63 | +0.08 | 2.91 | 141 | 75 |
| Ronny Agustin L 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.70 | 22.1% | 9.4% | 2.3% | .329 | 3.90 | 20.2% | 3.5% | 81 | +0.20 | 3.13 | 158 | 75 |
| Sean Mellen L 2028 · 4.62 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.62 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 3.3% | .364 | 3.97 | 21.3% | 10.9% | 55 | -0.65 | 3.97 | 101 | 75 |
| Kenny Rosenberg L 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.65 | 20.8% | 6.9% | 2.6% | .313 | 4.79 | 17.3% | 6.9% | 361 | +1.14 | 3.34 | 755 | 74 |
| Caden Favors L 2027 · 4.09 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.09 | 18.2% | 4.5% | 3.6% | .351 | 4.91 | 19.1% | 6.3% | 187 | +0.82 | 4.09 | 198 | 74 |
| Dante Biasi L 2028 · 4.88 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.88 | 21.5% | 12.6% | 3.6% | .251 | 6.01 | 19.3% | 2.3% | 153 | +1.13 | 4.88 | 224 | 74 |
| Luis Angel Rodriguez L 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 21 | SW | 3.47 | 27.3% | 9.0% | 2.8% | .245 | 4.61 | 23.7% | 8.3% | 212 | +1.14 | 2.73 | 388 | 74 |
| Keyshawn Askew L 2027 · 3.37 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.37 | 25.6% | 12.2% | 1.6% | .274 | 3.78 | 20.7% | 5.5% | 196 | +0.41 | 3.37 | 262 | 73 |
| Cameron Ming L 2027 · 4.03 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.03 | 17.7% | 7.1% | 2.8% | .308 | 5.28 | 14.3% | 4.9% | 49 | +1.25 | 4.03 | 111 | 73 |
| Christian Torres L 2027 · 3.26 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.26 | 16.8% | 8.9% | 0.8% | .297 | 2.96 | 16.2% | 9.0% | 141 | -0.30 | 2.75 | 172 | 73 |
| Alex Cornwell L 2028 · 3.97 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.97 | 18.9% | 7.3% | 2.8% | .382 | 3.85 | 16.5% | 8.0% | 311 | -0.12 | 3.10 | 381 | 73 |
| David Rodriguez L 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 21 | SP- | 3.74 | 19.8% | 5.7% | 2.9% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.58 | 120 | 73 |