Alejandro Nunez
SS Asheville Tourists| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 19 | A+/AHOU | 380 | .248/.332/.355 | 4 | 18 | 42 | — | .193/.259/.273 |
| 2025 | 20 | A+HOU | 402 | .269/.324/.400 | 8 | 22 | 46 | — | .207/.247/.293 |
| 2026 | 21 | AA/A+HOU | 467 | .242/.312/.368 | 13 | 22 | 53 | — | .208/.258/.319 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 22 | MLBHOU | 1 | .215/.260/.317 | 0 | 0 | 60 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ35% MLB | 23 | MLBHOU | 147 | .219/.266/.329 | 3 | 4 | 65 | -0.1 | |
| 2029PROJ46% MLB | 24 | MLBHOU | 219 | .222/.272/.338 | 5 | 6 | 69 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 40
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 17 | ROK | DSL HOU Orange | — | 212 | 181 | 53 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 20 | 26 | 10 | 20 | 5 | 293 | 393 | 392 | 786 | 99 | 333 | 12 | 9 | 358 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | FCL Astros | — | 164 | 135 | 35 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 25 | 24 | 4 | 16 | 3 | 259 | 390 | 356 | 746 | 96 | 309 | 15 | 15 | 348 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A+ | Asheville Tourists | — | 42 | 38 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 184 | 262 | 263 | 525 | 79 | 304 | 36 | 10 | 243 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 338 | 297 | 76 | 17 | 2 | 4 | 36 | 92 | 3 | 18 | 3 | 256 | 341 | 367 | 708 | 111 | 356 | 27 | 11 | 322 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A+ | Asheville Tourists | — | 402 | 360 | 97 | 19 | 2 | 8 | 26 | 96 | 4 | 22 | 9 | 269 | 324 | 400 | 724 | 131 | 340 | 24 | 6 | 316 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 136 | 125 | 29 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 33 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 232 | 284 | 312 | 596 | 80 | 300 | 24 | 6 | 268 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ | Asheville Tourists | — | 331 | 293 | 72 | 10 | 0 | 11 | 32 | 59 | 2 | 16 | 10 | 246 | 323 | 392 | 716 | 147 | 271 | 18 | 10 | 319 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL HOU Orange | — | 212 | 189 | 35 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 32 | 10 | 20 | 5 | 185 | 270 | 233 | 503 | 48 | 219 | 15 | 6 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Astros | — | 164 | 144 | 29 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 33 | 4 | 16 | 3 | 201 | 299 | 278 | 577 | 76 | 250 | 20 | 10 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A+ MLE | Asheville Tourists | — | 42 | 39 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 154 | 214 | 231 | 445 | 77 | 271 | 48 | 7 | 171 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 338 | 309 | 61 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 25 | 123 | 3 | 18 | 3 | 197 | 264 | 278 | 542 | 81 | 306 | 36 | 7 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A+ MLE | Asheville Tourists | — | 402 | 372 | 77 | 13 | 2 | 5 | 16 | 129 | 4 | 22 | 9 | 207 | 247 | 293 | 540 | 86 | 283 | 32 | 4 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | AA MLE | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 136 | 127 | 28 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 40 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 220 | 261 | 299 | 560 | 79 | 297 | 29 | 4 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ MLE | Asheville Tourists | — | 331 | 306 | 62 | 8 | 0 | 10 | 20 | 77 | 2 | 16 | 10 | 203 | 256 | 327 | 583 | 124 | 231 | 23 | 6 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL HOU Orange | — | 212 | 189 | 35 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 32 | 10 | 20 | 5 | 185 | 270 | 233 | 503 | 48 | 218 | 15 | 6 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL HOU Orange | — | 212 | 181 | 53 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 20 | 26 | 10 | 20 | 5 | 293 | 393 | 392 | 786 | 99 | 333 | 12 | 9 | 358 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Astros | — | 164 | 144 | 29 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 33 | 4 | 16 | 3 | 201 | 299 | 278 | 577 | 76 | 255 | 20 | 10 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK RAW | FCL Astros | — | 164 | 135 | 35 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 25 | 24 | 4 | 16 | 3 | 259 | 390 | 356 | 746 | 96 | 309 | 15 | 15 | 348 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 380 | 348 | 65 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 28 | 143 | 3 | 18 | 3 | 187 | 253 | 264 | 518 | 78 | 305 | 38 | 7 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 380 | 335 | 83 | 18 | 3 | 4 | 40 | 107 | 3 | 18 | 3 | 248 | 332 | 355 | 688 | 107 | 351 | 28 | 11 | 313 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A+ MLE | Asheville Tourists | — | 402 | 372 | 77 | 13 | 2 | 5 | 16 | 129 | 4 | 22 | 9 | 207 | 247 | 293 | 540 | 86 | 295 | 32 | 4 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A+ RAW | Asheville Tourists | — | 402 | 360 | 97 | 19 | 2 | 8 | 26 | 96 | 4 | 22 | 9 | 269 | 324 | 400 | 724 | 131 | 340 | 24 | 6 | 316 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 467 | 434 | 89 | 11 | 0 | 11 | 25 | 118 | 3 | 22 | 13 | 205 | 253 | 306 | 560 | 101 | 254 | 25 | 5 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 467 | 418 | 101 | 14 | 0 | 13 | 40 | 92 | 3 | 22 | 13 | 242 | 312 | 368 | 680 | 127 | 279 | 20 | 9 | 304 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL HOU Orange | — | 212 | 188 | 35 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 32 | 10 | 20 | 5 | 186 | 270 | 234 | 504 | 48 | 219 | 15 | 6 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Astros | — | 164 | 143 | 29 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 33 | 4 | 16 | 3 | 203 | 299 | 280 | 579 | 77 | 250 | 20 | 10 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 380 | 346 | 65 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 28 | 143 | 3 | 18 | 3 | 188 | 253 | 266 | 519 | 78 | 302 | 38 | 7 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A+ MLE | Asheville Tourists | — | 402 | 379 | 77 | 13 | 2 | 5 | 16 | 129 | 4 | 22 | 9 | 203 | 247 | 288 | 535 | 84 | 283 | 32 | 4 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 467 | 436 | 89 | 11 | 0 | 11 | 25 | 118 | 3 | 22 | 13 | 204 | 253 | 305 | 558 | 101 | 250 | 25 | 5 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 380 | 346 | 65 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 28 | 143 | 3 | 18 | 3 | 188 | 253 | 266 | 519 | 78 | 302 | 38 | 7 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A+ MLE | Asheville Tourists | — | 402 | 379 | 77 | 13 | 2 | 5 | 16 | 129 | 4 | 22 | 9 | 203 | 247 | 288 | 535 | 84 | 283 | 32 | 4 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 467 | 436 | 89 | 11 | 0 | 11 | 25 | 118 | 3 | 22 | 13 | 204 | 253 | 305 | 558 | 101 | 250 | 25 | 5 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB MLE | HOU | 0% | 577 | 539 | 115 | 18 | 2 | 11 | 29 | 151 | 4 | 17 | 8 | 212 | 258 | 314 | 572 | 102 | 271 | 26 | 5 | 256 | 60 | -28 | +0 | +0 | +6 | +13 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB CTX | HOU | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 215 | 260 | 317 | 577 | 102 | 275 | 0 | 0 | 258 | 60 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 23 | MLB MLE | HOU | 35% | 426 | 397 | 86 | 14 | 1 | 9 | 23 | 109 | 3 | 12 | 6 | 217 | 264 | 326 | 591 | 110 | 273 | 26 | 5 | 265 | 65 | -18 | +0 | +0 | +5 | +9 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB MLE | HOU | 46% | 474 | 441 | 97 | 16 | 1 | 11 | 27 | 119 | 3 | 13 | 6 | 220 | 270 | 335 | 605 | 115 | 274 | 25 | 6 | 271 | 69 | -17 | +0 | +0 | +5 | +10 | -0.2 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB MLE | HOU | 52% | 521 | 482 | 107 | 17 | 2 | 12 | 30 | 130 | 4 | 14 | 7 | 222 | 273 | 341 | 614 | 119 | 275 | 25 | 6 | 275 | 72 | -17 | +0 | +0 | +6 | +11 | -0.0 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB MLE | HOU | 54% | 534 | 493 | 111 | 18 | 2 | 13 | 32 | 133 | 4 | 14 | 7 | 223 | 276 | 344 | 620 | 121 | 276 | 25 | 6 | 277 | 74 | -17 | +0 | +0 | +6 | +12 | 0.1 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB MLE | HOU | 54% | 537 | 495 | 111 | 18 | 2 | 13 | 33 | 133 | 4 | 13 | 7 | 223 | 277 | 345 | 622 | 122 | 276 | 25 | 6 | 278 | 74 | -16 | -0 | +0 | +6 | +12 | 0.1 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB MLE | HOU | 54% | 533 | 491 | 109 | 18 | 2 | 12 | 33 | 134 | 4 | 11 | 6 | 222 | 275 | 341 | 616 | 119 | 275 | 25 | 6 | 276 | 73 | -17 | -0 | -1 | +6 | +12 | -0.1 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB MLE | HOU | 53% | 522 | 482 | 105 | 17 | 1 | 12 | 32 | 132 | 3 | 9 | 6 | 219 | 272 | 335 | 607 | 116 | 274 | 25 | 6 | 272 | 70 | -18 | -1 | -1 | +6 | +11 | -0.4 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB MLE | HOU | 52% | 510 | 471 | 102 | 17 | 1 | 11 | 31 | 131 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 217 | 269 | 328 | 597 | 111 | 273 | 26 | 6 | 268 | 67 | -20 | -1 | -2 | +5 | +11 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB CTX | HOU | 35% | 147 | 137 | 30 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 38 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 219 | 266 | 329 | 595 | 110 | 276 | 26 | 5 | 266 | 65 | -6 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +3 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB CTX | HOU | 46% | 219 | 203 | 46 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 55 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 222 | 272 | 338 | 610 | 116 | 278 | 25 | 5 | 273 | 69 | -8 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +5 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB CTX | HOU | 52% | 269 | 249 | 55 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 16 | 67 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 224 | 275 | 344 | 619 | 119 | 279 | 25 | 6 | 277 | 72 | -9 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +6 | -0.0 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB CTX | HOU | 54% | 290 | 269 | 60 | 10 | 1 | 7 | 17 | 72 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 225 | 278 | 347 | 624 | 121 | 280 | 25 | 6 | 279 | 74 | -9 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +6 | 0.0 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB CTX | HOU | 54% | 291 | 269 | 60 | 10 | 1 | 7 | 18 | 72 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 225 | 279 | 347 | 626 | 122 | 280 | 25 | 6 | 280 | 74 | -9 | -0 | +0 | +3 | +6 | 0.0 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB CTX | HOU | 54% | 289 | 267 | 60 | 10 | 1 | 7 | 18 | 72 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 224 | 277 | 343 | 620 | 119 | 279 | 25 | 6 | 277 | 73 | -9 | +0 | -0 | +3 | +6 | -0.0 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB CTX | HOU | 53% | 277 | 256 | 57 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 70 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 222 | 275 | 337 | 612 | 116 | 278 | 25 | 6 | 274 | 70 | -10 | -0 | -1 | +3 | +6 | -0.2 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB CTX | HOU | 52% | 267 | 247 | 55 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 16 | 69 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 219 | 271 | 330 | 601 | 111 | 277 | 26 | 6 | 270 | 67 | -10 | -0 | -1 | +3 | +6 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 2049 | 1897 | 423 | 71 | 7 | 47 | 122 | 515 | 15 | 47 | 25 | 223 | 275 | 342 | 617 | 119 | 280 | 25 | 6 | 275 | 64 | -71 | -1 | -2 | +22 | +44 | -0.7 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 602 | 135 | 23 | 2 | 15 | 39 | 163 | 5 | 15 | 8 | 224 | 278 | 344 | 621 | 120 | 281 | 25 | 6 | 275 | 64 | -22 | -0 | -1 | +7 | +14 | -0.2 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 5892 | 5435 | 1165 | 188 | 20 | 118 | 349 | 1531 | 53 | 197 | 86 | 214 | 268 | 321 | 590 | 107 | 274 | 26 | 6 | 263 | 64 | -151 | -1 | -4 | +46 | +92 | -1.9 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 600 | 129 | 21 | 2 | 13 | 39 | 169 | 6 | 22 | 9 | 215 | 271 | 322 | 592 | 107 | 275 | 26 | 6 | 263 | 64 | -23 | -0 | -1 | +7 | +14 | -0.3 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 A+Asheville Tourists · 331 PAwOBA .313 → .251 (−62)K% 17.8% → 23.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.82% | ÷1.000 | ×1.310 | — | — | 23.35% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.012 | 5.87% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.60% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.012 | 0.47% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.79% | ÷1.000 | ×0.870 | ×0.989 | ×1.012 | 18.98% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.27% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | ×0.989 | ×1.012 | 3.34% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | ×0.989 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.70% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 4.19% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.989.
Result: wOBA .313 → .251; ISO .147 → .126; BABIP .271 → .231. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 136 PAwOBA .261 → .236 (−25)K% 24.3% → 29.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.26% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 29.60% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.88% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.042 | 4.29% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.74% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.042 | 0.67% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.042 | 25.16% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.35% | ÷1.000 | ×0.840 | ×1.050 | ×1.042 | 4.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.940 | ×1.050 | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.17% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.042 | 1.81% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .261 → .236; ISO .080 → .067; BABIP .300 → .297. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Asheville Tourists · 402 PAwOBA .312 → .236 (−76)K% 23.9% → 32.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.88% | ÷0.977 | ×1.310 | — | — | 32.02% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.47% | ÷1.016 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.027 | 3.92% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.00% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.027 | 0.79% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.76% | ÷0.984 | ×0.870 | ×0.966 | ×1.027 | 22.59% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.20% | ÷1.095 | ×0.780 | ×0.966 | ×1.027 | 5.09% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.76% | ÷0.900 | ×0.850 | ×0.966 | ×1.027 | 0.71% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.03% | ÷1.297 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.027 | 2.11% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 159, 1B 97, 2B 119, 3B 80, K 95, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.966.
Result: wOBA .312 → .236; ISO .131 → .091; BABIP .340 → .283. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AFayetteville Woodpeckers · 338 PAwOBA .314 → .238 (−77)K% 27.2% → 36.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.22% | ÷1.020 | ×1.360 | — | — | 36.29% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.65% | ÷1.024 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 7.39% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.89% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 0.71% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.85% | ÷1.038 | ×0.920 | ×0.982 | ×1.030 | 23.19% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.29% | ÷1.132 | ×0.830 | ×0.982 | ×1.030 | 6.15% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.98% | ÷0.900 | ×0.910 | ×0.982 | ×1.030 | 1.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.95% | ÷1.118 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 1.44% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 124, 1B 108, 2B 126, 3B 80, K 104, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.982.
Result: wOBA .314 → .238; ISO .111 → .079; BABIP .356 → .306. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Asheville Tourists · 42 PAwOBA .237 → .171 (−66)K% 35.7% → 47.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 35.71% | ÷0.991 | ×1.310 | — | — | 47.19% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.52% | ÷0.977 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.042 | 6.10% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.74% | ÷0.988 | ×0.870 | — | ×1.042 | 19.96% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.35% | ÷1.079 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.042 | 3.27% |
| Triples /BIP | 4.35% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | — | ×1.042 | 3.85% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.073 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 115, 1B 98, 2B 116, 3B 100, K 98, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .237 → .171; ISO .079 → .057; BABIP .304 → .271. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKFCL Astros · 164 PAwOBA .340 → .254 (−86)K% 14.6% → 19.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.63% | ÷1.058 | ×1.440 | — | — | 19.92% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.24% | ÷1.007 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 9.46% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.44% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 1.77% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.62% | ÷1.014 | ×0.820 | ×1.013 | ×1.008 | 17.86% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.01% | ÷0.939 | ×0.720 | ×1.013 | ×1.008 | 7.05% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.720 | ×1.013 | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.90% | ÷1.379 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 0.51% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 176, 1B 103, 2B 88, 3B 80, K 112, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.013.
Result: wOBA .340 → .254; ISO .096 → .072; BABIP .309 → .250. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 DSLDSL HOU Orange · 212 PAwOBA .348 → .231 (−117)K% 12.3% → 15.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.26% | ÷0.978 | ×1.220 | — | — | 15.30% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.96% | ÷1.127 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 5.61% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.72% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 3.33% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.74% | ÷0.978 | ×0.680 | ×0.971 | ×1.008 | 18.87% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.58% | ÷1.051 | ×0.600 | ×0.971 | ×1.008 | 1.44% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.58% | ÷1.035 | ×0.600 | ×0.971 | ×1.008 | 1.46% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.29% | ÷0.912 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 0.67% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 96, 2B 110, 3B 107, K 96, BB 125 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.971.
Result: wOBA .348 → .231; ISO .099 → .057; BABIP .333 → .219. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).