Tyler Howard

C Hill City Howlers

Age 23 R/R 6'1" / 215 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP40OGV rank#342ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	21	ALynchburg Hil…	38	.312/.421/.344	0	0	79	—	.273/.368/.303
2026	22	A+/ACLE	319	.275/.422/.375	4	6	87	—	.231/.346/.305
2027PROJMLE	23	MLBCLE	429	.224/.323/.332	7	8	89	0.7
2028PROJ38% MLB	24	MLBCLE	89	.227/.325/.339	2	2	92	0.3
2029PROJ55% MLB	25	MLBCLE	165	.229/.325/.345	3	3	93	0.5

Next 3 projected WAR 1.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A+

K%97

Z-Con%97

Whiff%96

wOBA90

wRC+88

BB%87

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 1.6, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 94%

CompsJamie Ritchie (age 23) · Miguel Amaya (age 23) · Leo Jiménez (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 205 proj PA

wRC+†89

AVG/OBP/SLG.222 / .321 / .329

PA205

HR3

K%24

BB%11

ISO108

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$31M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 51 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT51

scouting grade only

POWER40

scouting grade only

EYE69

scouting grade only

SPEED52

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2035	Arb-1	$1M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M
2036	Arb-2	$0.4M	—	—	—
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$4M		$5M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	21	A	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	38	32	10	1	0	0	4	7	2	0	0	312	421	344	765	31	400	18	11	360	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+	Lake County Captains	—	121	98	29	5	1	3	21	15	2	0	0	296	430	459	889	163	325	12	17	401	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A	Hill City Howlers	—	198	153	40	6	0	1	36	43	5	6	0	261	418	320	738	59	345	22	18	346	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	21	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	38	33	9	1	0	0	3	10	2	0	0	273	368	303	671	30	350	26	8	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	—	121	104	25	4	1	2	15	19	2	0	0	240	347	356	703	115	278	16	12	321	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A MLE	Hill City Howlers	—	198	164	37	5	0	1	25	58	5	6	0	226	345	274	620	49	312	29	13	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	38	33	9	1	0	0	3	10	2	0	0	273	368	303	671	30	391	26	8	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A RAW	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	38	32	10	1	0	0	4	7	2	0	0	312	421	344	765	31	400	18	11	360	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	319	268	62	9	1	3	40	77	7	6	0	231	346	306	652	75	307	24	13	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A RAW	2 teams	—	319	251	69	11	1	4	57	58	7	6	0	275	422	375	797	100	337	18	18	367	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	38	33	9	1	0	0	3	10	2	0	0	273	368	303	671	30	350	26	8	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	319	269	62	9	1	3	40	77	7	6	0	230	346	305	651	74	299	24	13	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	21	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	38	33	9	1	0	0	3	10	2	0	0	273	368	303	671	30	350	26	8	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	319	269	62	9	1	3	40	77	7	6	0	230	346	305	651	74	299	24	13	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	23	MLB MLE	CLE	0%	429	371	83	15	2	7	49	104	6	8	2	224	323	332	655	108	290	24	11	300	89	-6	+1	+0	+8	+9	0.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	CLE	38%	235	204	45	8	1	4	26	57	3	4	1	227	325	340	665	114	291	24	11	304	92	-2	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.8
2029	25	MLB MLE	CLE	55%	298	259	59	11	2	5	33	71	4	6	1	228	325	346	671	118	291	24	11	306	93	-2	+1	+0	+5	+6	1.0
2030	26	MLB MLE	CLE	64%	344	299	70	13	2	7	38	82	4	7	2	229	325	349	674	120	291	24	11	307	94	-3	+1	+0	+6	+7	1.2
2031	27	MLB MLE	CLE	66%	361	315	72	13	2	7	39	86	4	7	2	229	324	350	673	121	290	24	11	306	93	-3	+1	+0	+6	+8	1.2
2032	28	MLB MLE	CLE	67%	368	321	73	13	2	7	40	89	4	6	2	228	321	348	669	120	289	24	11	304	92	-3	+0	-1	+7	+8	1.1
2033	29	MLB MLE	CLE	66%	364	318	72	13	2	7	39	89	4	6	2	225	318	341	660	116	288	24	11	300	90	-5	+0	-1	+7	+8	0.9
2034	30	MLB MLE	CLE	65%	356	311	70	13	2	6	38	88	4	5	2	222	315	333	648	111	286	25	11	296	86	-6	+0	-2	+6	+8	0.7
2035	31	MLB MLE	CLE	65%	324	283	61	11	1	5	34	81	4	4	2	218	310	323	633	105	283	25	10	290	82	-7	+0	-3	+6	+7	0.3
2036	32	MLB MLE	CLE	65%	287	252	53	9	1	4	30	73	3	3	3	212	304	310	614	98	278	25	10	282	77	-8	-1	-4	+5	+6	-0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	CLE	38%	89	78	17	3	0	2	10	21	1	2	0	227	325	339	664	112	291	24	11	303	92	-1	+0	+0	+2	+2	0.3
2029	25	MLB CTX	CLE	55%	165	144	33	6	1	3	18	40	2	3	1	229	325	345	670	116	291	24	11	305	93	-1	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.5
2030	26	MLB CTX	CLE	64%	219	190	43	8	1	4	24	52	3	4	1	229	325	348	673	119	291	24	11	306	94	-2	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.8
2031	27	MLB CTX	CLE	66%	237	206	48	9	1	5	26	57	3	5	1	229	324	348	672	119	290	24	11	306	93	-2	+1	+0	+4	+5	0.8
2032	28	MLB CTX	CLE	67%	246	214	49	9	1	5	27	59	3	4	1	228	322	347	668	119	290	24	11	304	92	-2	+0	-0	+4	+5	0.7
2033	29	MLB CTX	CLE	66%	239	208	47	9	1	4	26	58	3	4	1	226	319	340	659	115	288	24	11	300	90	-3	+0	-1	+4	+5	0.6
2034	30	MLB CTX	CLE	65%	232	202	45	8	1	4	25	57	3	4	1	222	315	332	647	110	286	25	11	296	86	-4	+0	-1	+4	+5	0.5
2035	31	MLB CTX	CLE	65%	210	184	40	7	1	3	22	53	2	3	1	218	310	322	632	104	283	25	10	290	82	-4	+0	-2	+4	+5	0.2
2036	32	MLB CTX	CLE	65%	185	162	35	6	1	3	19	47	2	2	2	213	304	310	614	97	279	25	10	282	77	-5	-0	-2	+3	+4	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1822	1588	357	65	8	33	197	444	22	31	9	225	319	338	657	113	290	24	11	299	89	-24	+3	-7	+33	+39	4.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	567	128	23	3	12	70	158	8	11	3	226	319	340	660	115	290	24	11	299	89	-9	+1	-2	+12	+14	1.6
Career	—	MLE		—	3499	3040	685	121	17	58	383	853	46	58	18	225	321	334	655	108	292	24	11	299	89	-41	+3	-10	+56	+68	7.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	565	127	22	3	11	71	158	9	11	3	225	321	333	654	108	290	24	11	299	89	-9	+1	-2	+12	+14	1.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AHill City Howlers · 198 PAwOBA .345 → .282 (−63)K% 21.7% → 29.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.72%	÷1.000	×1.360	—	—	29.54%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	18.18%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	—	12.55%
HBP% /PA	2.53%	—	×0.780	—	—	1.97%
Singles /BIP	30.00%	÷1.000	×0.920	×0.998	—	27.56%
Doubles /BIP	5.45%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.998	—	4.52%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.910	×0.998	—	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.91%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	—	0.73%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.998.

Result: wOBA .345 → .282; ISO .059 → .049; BABIP .345 → .312. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Lake County Captains · 121 PAwOBA .391 → .321 (−70)K% 12.4% → 15.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	12.40%	÷1.000	×1.270	—	—	15.74%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	17.36%	÷1.000	×0.710	—	×1.012	12.47%
HBP% /PA	1.65%	—	×0.790	—	×1.012	1.32%
Singles /BIP	24.10%	÷1.000	×0.920	×0.950	×1.012	21.31%
Doubles /BIP	6.02%	÷1.000	×0.810	×0.950	×1.012	4.69%
Triples /BIP	1.20%	÷1.000	×0.850	×0.950	×1.012	0.98%
Home runs /BIP	3.61%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.012	2.93%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .391 → .321; ISO .163 → .134; BABIP .325 → .278. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ALynchburg Hillcats · 38 PAwOBA .352 → .285 (−67)K% 18.4% → 25.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.42%	÷0.989	×1.360	—	—	25.32%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.53%	÷0.975	×0.690	—	×1.015	7.56%
HBP% /PA	5.26%	—	×0.780	—	×1.015	4.17%
Singles /BIP	36.00%	÷1.071	×0.920	—	×1.015	31.38%
Doubles /BIP	4.00%	÷0.921	×0.830	—	×1.015	3.66%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.020	×0.910	—	×1.015	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.184	×0.800	—	×1.015	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 137, 1B 114, 2B 84, 3B 104, K 98, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .352 → .285; ISO .031 → .027; BABIP .400 → .350. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Tucker Barnhartlast yr '24 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,088 PA	4.7	3,088	53	8	241	318	351	+55	+57	16.5	16.1
/162	664	11	2	+11.9	+12.3	3.6	pk7: 16
#2Austin Barneslast yr '24 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,639 PA	2.5	1,639	35	22	225	325	344	+29	+59	12.4	12.5
/162	664	14	9	+11.9	+23.8	5.0	pk7: 13
#3Jacob Stallingslast yr '25 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,850 PA	2.8	1,850	33	0	229	310	340	+33	+50	10.3	10.3
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+17.9	3.7	pk7: 10
#4Mike Fitzgerald'83-'92 * career totals — 9 seasons, 2,667 PA	4.0	2,667	48	31	234*	320*	372*	+43	-1	9.5	9.3
/162	664	12	8	+10.8	-0.3	2.4	pk7: 9
#5Buck Rodgers'61-'69 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,353 PA	5.0	3,353	31	17	239*	294*	339*	+60	+0	6.4	6.5
/162	664	6	3	+11.8	+0.0	1.3	pk7: 7
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	3.1	2,027	36	34	225	316	339	+36	+24	6.6	6.1
/162	664	12	11	+11.9	+7.9	2.2	pk7: 6
#6Jerry May'64-'73 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,716 PA	2.6	1,716	15	1	236*	314*	355*	+31	+0	5.6	5.6
/162	664	6	0	+11.8	+0.0	2.2	pk7: 6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Tyler Howard (OGILVIE)	23	46→51	35→40	47→52	69	222/321/329	107	290	3	4	24%	11%	89	+0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jamie Ritchie 2016 · A	23	52→53	39→40	45	57	240/337/331	91	317	6	8	24%	12%	95	+0.9	235/319/321	86	314	6	6	25%	10%	86	+0.3	247/328/340	93	319	6	3	22%	9%	90	+0.3
✕Miguel Amaya 2022 · AA	23	44→43	44→50	50→40	51	216/311/333	117	280	11	7	25%	10%	86	+0.3	226/312/365	139	299	15	5	28%	9%	94	+0.9	230/302/374	144	273	16	1	22%	7%	92	+0.3
✕Leo Jiménez 2023 · A	22	48→52	41→45	48→45	51	225/337/325	100	294	8	9	24%	9%	95	+1.0	235/325/347	112	296	10	7	23%	7%	95	+0.9	237/330/347	110	299	10	5	22%	7%	95	+0.5
✕Graysen Tarlow 2024 · A	23	45	43→30	49→40	50	217/307/331	113	283	10	8	25%	9%	84	+0.1	211/291/285	74	299	6	6	29%	8%	68	-1.0	224/307/292	68	313	6	7	28%	8%	76	-0.1
✕Noah Cardenas 2023 · A	23	46→45	44→45	47→45	54	223/326/344	120	286	11	9	24%	11%	95	+0.9	203/302/303	100	275	8	8	27%	10%	76	-0.4	185/290/277	92	251	8	6	27%	11%	63	-0.7
●Chase Meidroth 2024 · AA	23	52→58	43→40	52→50	53	249/341/361	113	320	11	12	24%	10%	103	+1.6	259/348/358	99	312	9	12	18%	11%	105	+1.7	263/352/365	101	313	10	11	17%	11%	107	+1.8
✕Austin Martin 2022 · AA	23	53→55	40	51→60	52	244/354/343	98	329	7	14	25%	10%	105	+1.7	232/327/317	85	288	6	25	20%	9%	88	+0.5	256/352/337	81	314	4	22	17%	11%	102	+0.9
✕Nolan Fontana 2014 · A	23	45	40	52→50	60	209/326/308	98	294	7	14	28%	14%	86	+0.3	210/308/299	89	309	4	9	29%	12%	77	-0.3	186/292/310	124	256	11	12	29%	12%	73	-0.3
✕Steve Tolleson 2007 · A	23	46→53	42→45	44→50	51	223/298/330	106	272	9	9	21%	9%	80	-0.2	242/310/342	100	307	7	14	22%	8%	86	+0.3	256/314/373	117	303	10	12	18%	7%	92	+0.6
✕Carlos Mendoza 2023 · A	23	52→56	36→40	49→55	60	241/347/312	72	303	3	13	20%	12%	95	+0.9	243/334/320	77	306	4	16	20%	10%	91	+0.7	246/335/334	88	300	7	18	19%	10%	93	+0.6
✕Jeremy Lucas 2014 · AA	23	47→44	43→45	50→30	53	228/309/347	120	288	9	4	23%	10%	88	+0.4	224/290/346	122	277	12	3	22%	8%	80	-0.1	219/286/340	120	267	13	1	22%	7%	75	-0.3
✕Joel Capote 2013 · A	23	50	41→45	45→50	50	238/305/345	106	284	7	9	18%	8%	85	+0.2	209/268/286	77	268	4	10	22%	6%	58	-1.7	187/244/244	57	241	2	12	22%	5%	36	-2.0
✕Curtis Thigpen 2006 · AA	23	51→53	42→45	51→45	53	248/314/357	109	279	9	5	15%	8%	91	+0.7	233/293/336	103	277	7	6	18%	7%	79	-0.2	223/279/318	95	267	6	4	18%	6%	68	-0.7
✕Alan Ahmady 2011 · A	23	53→43	39→45	47→40	53	241/330/333	91	336	6	6	27%	11%	93	+0.8	221/308/312	91	299	5	4	25%	10%	80	-0.2	214/306/304	90	287	4	3	24%	10%	76	-0.3
✕Brad Emaus 2009 · A	23	53→55	45→50	48→50	52	256/317/390	134	288	11	9	15%	8%	100	+1.3	242/308/367	125	276	12	9	16%	8%	92	+0.7	238/309/364	126	270	12	9	16%	9%	90	+0.5
✕David Adams 2010 · A	23	50→55	42→45	46→40	48	237/303/358	121	297	7	8	22%	7%	88	+0.4	257/318/381	124	320	8	8	21%	7%	99	+1.2	284/345/409	126	344	9	6	19%	7%	113	+0.9
✕Curt Casali 2012 · A	23	45	45→50	49→30	51	220/287/348	129	253	11	7	18%	8%	80	-0.2	235/306/363	128	282	12	3	20%	8%	91	+0.6	238/310/384	146	297	17	0	25%	8%	97	+0.4
✕Zelous Wheeler 2010 · A	23	48→54	42→50	47→45	47	230/301/339	108	294	9	9	24%	8%	83	+0.1	243/316/363	120	292	11	8	20%	8%	94	+0.9	245/320/372	126	288	12	7	18%	8%	95	+0.7
✕David Freitas 2012 · A	23	47→57	45	45→40	51	233/309/354	122	288	13	3	23%	9%	90	+0.6	225/290/344	119	274	12	2	22%	7%	80	-0.1	269/329/382	113	323	10	0	19%	7%	101	+0.7
✕Jesus Rodriguez 2024 · A	22	52→61	43→45	53→50	48	249/311/362	113	301	9	14	20%	7%	91	+0.7	256/314/367	111	304	10	14	18%	7%	94	+0.9	261/323/368	107	303	10	16	17%	7%	95	+0.6

Tyler Howard

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps