Tyler Howard — OGILVIE

Tyler HowardC Hill City Howlers

Age 22 R/R 6'1" / 215 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 ROS PROJECTION319 act + 9 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†88

AVG/OBP/SLG.125 / .222 / .125

PA9

HR0

K%22

BB%11

BABIP298

ISO113

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$54M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 48 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT48

scouting grade only

POWER40

scouting grade only

EYE67

scouting grade only

SPEED52

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.2	$7M	+$6M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.1	$6M	+$5M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.0	$5M	+$4M
2034	Arb-1	$3M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.5M
2035	Arb-2	$4M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Arb-3	$4M	+0.4	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$21M	+$16M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	21	A	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	38	32	10	1	0	0	4	7	2	0	0	312	421	344	765	31	400	18	11	360	130	+1	+0	—	—	+1	0.2
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	21	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	38	33	8	1	0	0	3	10	2	0	0	242	342	273	615	30	352	26	8	281	76	-1	+0	—	—	+1	-0.0
2025	21	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	38	33	8	1	0	0	3	10	2	0	0	242	342	273	615	30	348	26	8	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A RAW	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	38	32	10	1	0	0	4	7	2	0	0	312	421	344	765	31	400	18	11	360	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	38	33	8	1	0	0	3	10	2	0	0	242	342	273	615	30	352	26	8	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	21	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	38	33	8	1	0	0	3	10	2	0	0	242	342	273	615	30	352	26	8	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	22	A MLE	CLE	—	319	270	62	9	1	3	38	81	7	6	0	230	340	304	643	74	311	25	12	292	84	-6	+1	+0	+6	+7	0.8
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A RAW	CLE	—	198	153	40	6	0	1	36	43	5	6	0	261	418	320	738	59	345	22	18	346	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	22	A+ RAW	CLE	—	121	98	29	5	1	3	21	15	2	0	0	296	430	459	889	163	325	12	17	401	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	22	A MLE	CLE	0%	9	8	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	125	222	125	347		298	22	11	299	88	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
TOT	22	A MLE	CLE	—	328	278	63	9	1	3	39	83	7	6	0	227	336	299	635	72	306	25	12	293	84	-6	+1	+0	+6	+7	0.8
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	CLE	43%	289	252	58	10	1	5	31	70	4	5	1	230	324	337	661	107	297	24	11	303	91	-3	+1	+0	+5	+6	0.9
2028	24	MLB MLE	CLE	58%	376	327	77	13	2	7	40	91	6	7	1	235	330	352	681	116	298	24	11	307	94	-3	+1	+0	+7	+8	1.3
2029	25	MLB MLE	CLE	65%	417	364	85	15	2	8	44	100	6	8	1	234	326	352	678	118	297	24	11	309	96	-2	+1	+0	+7	+9	1.6
2030	26	MLB MLE	CLE	68%	443	386	91	16	2	9	47	106	7	9	2	236	330	358	687	122	297	24	11	310	96	-2	+1	+0	+8	+10	1.7
2031	27	MLB MLE	CLE	68%	450	392	92	16	2	9	48	108	7	9	2	235	329	355	683	120	297	24	11	310	96	-2	+1	+0	+8	+10	1.7
2032	28	MLB MLE	CLE	68%	451	393	92	16	2	9	48	109	7	9	2	234	328	354	682	120	296	24	11	309	95	-2	+1	-1	+8	+10	1.6
2033	29	MLB MLE	CLE	66%	444	387	90	15	2	9	48	108	6	8	1	233	327	351	678	119	296	24	11	307	94	-3	+1	-1	+8	+10	1.5
2034	30	MLB MLE	CLE	66%	436	380	87	15	2	8	47	107	6	8	1	229	323	342	665	113	294	25	11	305	92	-4	+1	-2	+8	+9	1.3
2035	31	MLB MLE	CLE	65%	410	357	80	14	1	7	44	102	6	7	1	224	319	328	647	104	292	25	11	300	89	-5	+1	-3	+7	+9	0.9
2036	32	MLB MLE	CLE	65%	381	332	73	12	1	7	41	96	5	6	1	220	315	325	640	105	289	25	11	295	86	-6	+1	-4	+7	+8	0.6
2037	33	MLB MLE	CLE	70%	342	297	63	10	1	5	37	88	5	5	1	212	310	303	613	91	285	26	11	288	81	-8	+1	-4	+6	+7	0.2
2038	34	MLB MLE	CLE	66%	291	254	53	8	1	4	31	77	4	4	1	209	304	295	600	87	279	26	11	280	76	-8	+0	-5	+5	+6	-0.1
2027	23	MLB CTX	CLE	43%	125	109	24	4	0	2	13	30	2	2	0	220	315	312	626	92	297	24	10	291	91	-1	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.4
2028	24	MLB CTX	CLE	58%	218	190	45	8	1	4	23	52	3	4	1	237	329	353	681	116	297	24	11	296	94	-2	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.8
2029	25	MLB CTX	CLE	65%	270	235	55	10	1	5	29	65	4	5	1	234	328	349	677	115	297	24	11	298	96	-1	+1	+0	+5	+6	1.0
2030	26	MLB CTX	CLE	68%	301	262	62	11	1	6	32	72	4	6	1	237	329	355	684	118	297	24	11	299	96	-1	+1	+0	+5	+7	1.2
2031	27	MLB CTX	CLE	68%	306	265	62	11	1	6	33	73	5	6	1	234	330	351	681	117	296	24	11	299	96	-1	+1	+0	+5	+7	1.2
2032	28	MLB CTX	CLE	68%	307	266	62	11	1	6	33	74	5	6	1	233	329	350	679	117	296	24	11	298	95	-2	+1	-0	+5	+7	1.1
2033	29	MLB CTX	CLE	66%	295	257	59	10	1	6	32	72	4	6	1	230	324	346	671	117	295	24	11	296	94	-2	+1	-1	+5	+6	1.0
2034	30	MLB CTX	CLE	66%	286	249	57	10	1	5	31	70	4	5	1	229	324	337	661	108	294	24	11	293	92	-3	+1	-1	+5	+6	0.8
2035	31	MLB CTX	CLE	65%	267	232	53	9	1	5	29	66	4	5	1	228	325	341	665	112	292	25	11	289	89	-3	+1	-2	+5	+6	0.6
2036	32	MLB CTX	CLE	65%	247	215	48	8	1	4	27	62	3	4	1	223	318	326	644	102	288	25	11	284	86	-4	+0	-2	+4	+5	0.4
2037	33	MLB CTX	CLE	70%	240	209	45	7	1	4	26	62	3	4	1	215	311	316	627	100	284	26	11	278	81	-5	+0	-3	+4	+5	0.2
2038	34	MLB CTX	CLE	66%	191	166	35	5	1	3	20	50	3	3	1	211	307	307	614	96	279	26	10	270	76	-6	+0	-3	+3	+4	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3053	2655	607	104	11	56	328	748	44	56	11	229	323	339	663	111	295	25	11	292	91	-32	+7	-13	+55	+66	8.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	565	129	22	2	12	70	159	9	12	2	228	322	338	661	110	295	24	11	292	91	-7	+1	-3	+12	+14	1.8
Career	—	MLE		—	4777	4162	950	161	19	87	510	1174	71	85	15	228	323	339	662	111	295	25	11	303	91	-49	+11	-20	+85	+103	13.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	566	130	22	3	12	69	160	10	12	2	230	324	343	667	113	297	25	11	303	91	-7	+2	-3	+12	+14	1.8

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jason Castrolast yr '22 career totals — 12 seasons, 3,381 PA	5.1	3,381	97	6	227	312	387	+60	+77	22.5	21.6
/162	664	19	1	+11.9	+15.1	4.4	pk7: 21
#2Tucker Barnhartlast yr '24 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,088 PA	4.7	3,088	53	8	241	318	351	+55	+57	16.5	16.1
/162	664	11	2	+11.9	+12.3	3.6	pk7: 16
#3Omar Narváezlast yr '24 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,298 PA	3.5	2,298	53	0	251	334	374	+41	+15	12.6	12.9
/162	664	15	0	+11.9	+4.3	3.6	pk7: 13
#4Austin Barneslast yr '24 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,639 PA	2.5	1,639	35	22	225	325	344	+29	+59	12.4	12.5
/162	664	14	9	+11.9	+23.8	5.0	pk7: 13
#5Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	4.3	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
/162	664	15	8	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 9 projected seasons	4.8	3,164	59	58	230	320	343	+57	+36	11.5	9.9
/162	664	12	12	+11.9	+7.6	2.4	pk7: 8
#6Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	4.7	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
/162	664	8	18	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Tyler Howard (OGILVIE)	22	43→48	35→40	47→52	67	225/323/322	96	298	2	2	25%	11%	88	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Leo Jiménez 2023 · A	22	46→49	40→45	48→45	49	216/322/312	96	283	8	9	24%	9%	86	+0.3	226/314/335	109	285	10	7	23%	7%	88	+0.4	228/319/335	107	286	10	5	22%	7%	87	+0.2
✕José Caballero 2019 · A	22	48→46	43→45	47→70	45	232/293/349	117	280	10	9	21%	6%	82	-0.0	219/293/329	110	283	9	26	25%	8%	78	-0.3	225/318/339	113	300	10	63	26%	9%	88	+0.3
✕Jesus Rodriguez 2023 · A	21	49→55	41→45	50	49	236/301/348	112	284	7	12	19%	7%	84	+0.2	250/311/362	112	306	9	14	20%	7%	91	+0.7	256/318/360	105	310	9	16	19%	7%	92	+0.5
✕Lou Marson 2008 · A	22	50→54	40	49→50	47	236/302/335	99	315	7	4	26%	8%	82	+0.0	247/319/337	90	319	6	7	22%	9%	89	+0.5	239/318/326	87	301	5	8	21%	10%	84	+0.1
✕Jeferson Morales 2021 · A	22	44→48	41→45	48→50	51	208/295/315	107	257	6	8	21%	9%	76	-0.4	199/281/329	130	264	13	9	28%	8%	74	-0.5	221/295/347	125	275	11	8	22%	7%	80	-0.1
✕Jamie Ritchie 2016 · A	23	52→53	39→40	45	57	239/336/330	91	316	6	8	24%	12%	94	+0.9	235/319/321	86	314	6	6	25%	10%	86	+0.3	247/327/340	92	319	6	3	22%	9%	90	+0.3
✕Nick Senzel 2017 · A	22	48→57	45→50	51→50	46	230/295/364	133	302	10	16	26%	8%	86	+0.3	251/305/391	140	330	12	14	26%	7%	96	+1.0	256/310/402	146	332	13	16	26%	7%	97	+0.7
✕Blaze Alexander 2021 · A	22	45→48	42→45	51→50	42	215/281/322	107	301	9	11	30%	7%	72	-0.7	206/277/331	125	321	14	12	37%	7%	73	-0.6	239/319/362	123	339	12	15	30%	8%	93	+0.6
✕Luis Santana 2021 · AA	22	50	39→45	48→50	48	236/306/325	89	282	6	8	18%	7%	82	-0.0	216/274/336	120	286	13	9	28%	6%	72	-0.7	215/272/344	129	278	15	8	27%	5%	70	-0.4
✕Henry Henry 2008 · A	21	52	41→40	50→60	53	246/331/344	98	291	8	14	18%	9%	95	+1.0	238/298/316	78	271	5	21	13%	6%	76	-0.4	250/305/317	67	277	4	30	11%	6%	75	-0.2
✕Corey Toups 2015 · A	22	50	40→45	54→50	52	233/312/338	105	299	6	8	23%	9%	86	+0.3	225/285/339	114	307	8	16	28%	7%	77	-0.3	217/277/333	116	302	9	18	29%	6%	70	-0.7
✕Alexander Campos 2022 · A	22	42	42→40	46→45	48	206/291/311	105	278	9	6	28%	9%	73	-0.6	220/302/308	88	316	7	6	30%	9%	76	-0.4	234/327/306	73	330	7	6	28%	11%	84	+0.1
✕Luis Alvarez 2011 · A	21	47	42→45	48→45	45	228/296/337	109	289	9	6	24%	7%	80	-0.1	219/274/328	109	275	11	5	24%	5%	70	-0.8	212/264/322	110	252	12	1	21%	4%	62	-0.3
✕Andrew Knizner 2017 · A	22	49	44→50	48→40	48	241/316/361	120	271	11	3	16%	6%	94	+0.9	251/299/368	117	287	12	3	17%	5%	88	+0.5	253/300/372	119	287	14	2	17%	5%	88	+0.3
✕Steve Tolleson 2006 · A	22	42→52	44→45	50	51	209/292/329	120	248	12	8	20%	9%	78	-0.3	237/309/339	102	303	8	12	22%	9%	86	+0.3	252/311/367	115	300	10	12	18%	7%	89	+0.4
✕Joel Capote 2013 · A	23	51	41→45	45→50	50	243/312/353	109	291	7	9	18%	8%	90	+0.6	211/271/289	78	271	4	10	22%	6%	60	-1.6	189/247/247	57	244	2	12	22%	5%	38	-1.9
✕Austin Martin 2022 · AA	23	51→52	40	51→60	51	238/344/333	95	319	6	14	25%	10%	99	+1.3	228/320/311	83	283	5	25	20%	9%	85	+0.2	257/354/339	82	314	4	22	17%	11%	101	+0.8
✕Juan Mora 2022 · A	22	46	44→45	55	46	225/303/346	121	300	11	14	27%	8%	86	+0.3	225/283/333	108	304	9	9	28%	5%	75	-0.5	222/278/328	106	295	10	8	27%	5%	70	-0.4
✕Connor Norby 2022 · A	22	48→49	42→55	48→50	45	226/302/334	109	325	10	11	31%	9%	82	+0.0	234/295/389	155	306	18	11	28%	7%	92	+0.7	239/312/395	156	325	18	14	30%	8%	98	+1.0
✕Abrahan Gutierrez 2022 · A	22	50→43	41→45	48→40	51	236/312/337	102	298	7	3	22%	9%	86	+0.3	219/284/318	99	294	8	4	27%	7%	72	-0.7	222/258/285	63	282	4	2	22%	4%	50	-0.5

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps