Shane Gray
P
Tampa Tarpons
Age 26
RHP
6'3" / 215 lbs
A
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 42 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118109vR 100
ERA4.37
FIP4.37
K%23.1%
BB%9.2%
K-BB%13.9%
ROS IP43
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 42 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 22 | A | Tampa Tarpons | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.0% | 20.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 3.94 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A | Tampa Tarpons | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.0% | 20.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 4.10 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 0 | 61 | 272 | 70 | 23 | 10 | 0% | 1.5 | 19.3% | 9.9% | 9.4% | 4.3% | 5.46 | 5.09 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 0 | 61 | 272 | 70 | 23 | 10 | 0% | 1.5 | 25.7% | 8.5% | 17.3% | 3.7% | 5.46 | 4.07 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | NYY | 41 | 0 | 43 | 180 | 42 | 17 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.1% | 9.2% | 13.9% | 3.0% | 4.37 | 4.37 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | NYY | 40 | 0 | 42 | 178 | 41 | 17 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.1% | 9.3% | 13.8% | 3.1% | 4.39 | 4.40 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | NYY | 39 | 0 | 41 | 172 | 40 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.0% | 9.4% | 13.6% | 3.2% | 4.44 | 4.48 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | NYY | 37 | 0 | 39 | 165 | 38 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.8% | 9.7% | 13.1% | 3.3% | 4.54 | 4.60 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | NYY | 14 | 0 | 15 | 63 | 15 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.1% | 9.3% | 13.8% | 3.1% | 4.39 | 4.40 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | NYY | 23 | 0 | 24 | 101 | 23 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.0% | 9.4% | 13.6% | 3.2% | 4.44 | 4.48 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | NYY | 26 | 0 | 27 | 114 | 26 | 11 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.8% | 9.7% | 13.1% | 3.3% | 4.54 | 4.60 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 63 | 0 | 67 | 281 | 65 | 27 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 9.5% | 13.4% | 3.2% | 4.47 | 4.13 | +0.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 195 | 81 | 27 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 9.5% | 13.4% | 3.2% | 4.47 | 4.13 | +3.0 | ||
| Career | — | 41 | 0 | 62 | 277 | 53 | 28 | 12 | 0% | 1.5 | 19.3% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 4.2% | 5.37 | 5.07 | -0.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 132 | 0 | 200 | 894 | 173 | 90 | 38 | 0% | 1.5 | 19.3% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 4.2% | 5.37 | 5.07 | +0.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Shane Gray (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.37 | 23.1% | 9.2% | 3.0% | — | 4.49 | 23.0% | 13.5% | 122 | +0.12 | — | — | — |
| Jason Stoffel R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.54 | 23.4% | 10.1% | 2.1% | .267 | 3.70 | 27.2% | 19.2% | 59 | +0.16 | 3.54 | 103 | 90 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.91 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.5% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.01 | 3.21 | 161 | 89 |
| Kaleb Bowman R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.80 | 22.0% | 7.5% | 2.9% | .333 | 4.41 | 18.1% | 6.6% | 151 | +0.61 | 3.74 | 185 | 89 |
| Matt Pushard R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.77 | 24.1% | 8.9% | 2.9% | .242 | 3.56 | 22.5% | 12.4% | 100 | -0.21 | 3.05 | 205 | 89 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.34 | 23.4% | 11.6% | 3.2% | .273 | 4.52 | 18.7% | 7.1% | 88 | +0.18 | 3.57 | 187 | 88 |
| Shawn Armstrong R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.11 | 22.1% | 9.2% | 3.1% | .282 | 3.23 | 26.9% | 17.2% | 144 | -0.88 | 1.79 | 647 | 88 |
| Colton Murray R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.04 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .295 | 4.19 | 21.8% | 13.1% | 41 | +0.15 | 3.43 | 187 | 87 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.46 | 23.1% | 9.3% | 2.1% | .244 | 3.76 | 18.9% | 11.1% | 168 | +0.30 | 3.23 | 253 | 87 |
| Nick Altermatt R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.51 | 23.2% | 8.5% | 4.2% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.25 | 121 | 87 |
| Jack Hartman R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.36 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 3.5% | .310 | 4.40 | 17.6% | 5.6% | 46 | +0.04 | 3.42 | 161 | 86 |
| Joe Broussard R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.84 | 23.5% | 7.9% | 3.1% | .316 | 3.66 | 21.1% | 12.0% | 95 | -0.18 | 2.61 | 304 | 86 |
| Jose Rafael De Paula R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.46 | 19.9% | 9.8% | 3.3% | .278 | 5.02 | 22.7% | 10.3% | 89 | +0.56 | 2.69 | 315 | 86 |
| Jarret Whorff R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.81 | 21.6% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .316 | 6.96 | 13.7% | 6.1% | 26 | +3.15 | 3.81 | 233 | 86 |
| Kyle Winkler R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.60 | 23.1% | 8.7% | 2.5% | .234 | 3.53 | 18.4% | 8.3% | 43 | -0.07 | 2.96 | 114 | 86 |
| Cale Coshow R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.51 | 23.1% | 10.9% | 3.6% | .300 | 3.61 | 23.0% | 12.8% | 63 | -0.90 | 3.16 | 377 | 85 |
| Fernery Ozuna R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.97 | 22.4% | 8.7% | 3.0% | .324 | 5.77 | 19.5% | 6.0% | 49 | +1.80 | 3.97 | 157 | 85 |
| Michael Flynn R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.57 | 26.5% | 11.2% | 4.2% | .299 | 4.42 | 22.3% | 10.3% | 87 | -0.15 | 3.74 | 163 | 85 |
| Jackson Hicks R 2025 · 3.94 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.94 | 22.6% | 10.5% | 2.6% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 116 | 85 |
| Dugan Darnell R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.55 | 23.1% | 10.1% | 3.9% | .302 | 3.24 | 24.5% | 15.5% | 94 | -1.31 | 2.35 | 238 | 84 |
| Daniel Corcino R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.75 | 21.7% | 11.4% | 1.9% | .292 | 4.81 | 19.0% | 7.9% | 223 | +1.06 | 3.75 | 299 | 84 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 41 | 23.0% | 9.4% | 1.22 | 4.43 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |