Shane Gray
P
Tampa Tarpons
+0.4
WAR
Age 26
RHP
6'3" / 215 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 0.4 · 2026
ERA4.38
FIP4.38
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%23.1%
BB%9.2%
K-BB%13.9%
IP61
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2026
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 22 | A | Tampa Tarpons | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Hudson Valley Renegades | 40 | 0 | 61 | 272 | 70 | 23 | 10 | 19.3% | 9.9% | 4.5% | 5.46 | 5.21 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | NYY | 11 | 11 | 61 | 258 | 59 | 24 | 8 | 23.1% | 9.2% | 3.1% | 4.38 | 4.38 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | NYY | 11 | 11 | 60 | 255 | 59 | 24 | 8 | 23.2% | 9.2% | 3.1% | 4.37 | 4.38 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | NYY | 60 | — | 60 | 252 | 58 | 23 | 8 | 23.1% | 9.3% | 3.1% | 4.39 | 4.40 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | NYY | 58 | — | 58 | 246 | 57 | 23 | 8 | 23.0% | 9.4% | 3.1% | 4.42 | 4.44 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | NYY | 57 | — | 57 | 239 | 55 | 23 | 8 | 22.8% | 9.5% | 3.2% | 4.47 | 4.50 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | NYY | 55 | — | 55 | 231 | 52 | 22 | 8 | 22.6% | 9.6% | 3.3% | 4.53 | 4.58 | +0.2 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | NYY | 52 | — | 52 | 221 | 49 | 22 | 7 | 22.3% | 9.8% | 3.3% | 4.61 | 4.66 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | NYY | 50 | — | 50 | 211 | 46 | 21 | 7 | 22.0% | 9.9% | 3.4% | 4.70 | 4.76 | +0.1 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | NYY | 48 | — | 48 | 201 | 43 | 20 | 7 | 21.6% | 10.1% | 3.5% | 4.80 | 4.87 | +0.0 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | NYY | 45 | — | 45 | 189 | 40 | 20 | 7 | 21.2% | 10.4% | 3.6% | 4.92 | 4.99 | -0.0 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | NYY | 42 | — | 42 | 177 | 37 | 19 | 7 | 20.8% | 10.6% | 3.8% | 5.04 | 5.13 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 41 | 0 | 62 | 277 | 53 | 28 | 12 | 19.3% | 10.1% | 4.5% | 5.37 | 5.19 | -0.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 132 | 0 | 200 | 894 | 171 | 90 | 39 | 19.3% | 10.1% | 4.5% | 5.37 | 5.19 | +0.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Shane Gray (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.38 | 23.1% | 9.2% | 3.1% | — | 4.41 | 23.1% | 13.8% | 178 | +0.03 | — | — | — |
| Colton Murray R 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.05 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .295 | 4.28 | 21.8% | 13.1% | 41 | +0.23 | 3.34 | 187 | 90 |
| Matt Pushard R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.86 | 24.1% | 8.9% | 3.0% | .242 | 2.97 | 25.1% | 15.7% | 62 | -0.89 | 2.97 | 167 | 89 |
| Shawn Armstrong R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.33 | 22.1% | 9.2% | 3.5% | .282 | 3.20 | 26.9% | 17.2% | 144 | -1.13 | 1.79 | 618 | 89 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.85 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.3% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.07 | 3.23 | 161 | 89 |
| Jarret Whorff R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.84 | 21.6% | 8.2% | 2.8% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 206 | 89 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.52 | 23.1% | 9.3% | 2.2% | .244 | 3.73 | 18.9% | 11.1% | 168 | +0.21 | 3.18 | 253 | 89 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.22 | 23.4% | 11.6% | 3.0% | .273 | 4.53 | 18.7% | 7.1% | 88 | +0.31 | 3.70 | 187 | 89 |
| R.J. Alaniz R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.90 | 20.7% | 8.9% | 2.6% | .318 | 3.29 | 23.8% | 15.0% | 96 | -0.61 | 2.45 | 362 | 88 |
| Joe Broussard R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.82 | 23.5% | 7.9% | 3.1% | .316 | 3.73 | 21.1% | 12.0% | 95 | -0.09 | 2.62 | 304 | 87 |
| Randall Delgado R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.83 | 20.2% | 9.8% | 2.2% | .303 | 4.06 | 19.2% | 12.5% | 143 | +0.23 | 3.05 | 290 | 87 |
| Scott Oberg R 2026 · 3.24 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.24 | 22.9% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .260 | 2.93 | 23.8% | 16.4% | 188 | -0.31 | 2.59 | 302 | 86 |
| Fernery Ozuna R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.86 | 22.4% | 8.7% | 2.8% | .324 | 5.86 | 19.5% | 6.0% | 49 | +2.00 | 3.86 | 157 | 86 |
| Jaye Chapman R 2028 · 3.34 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.34 | 21.6% | 8.5% | 1.8% | .276 | 4.07 | 20.3% | 11.3% | 85 | +0.73 | 3.25 | 150 | 86 |
| Simon Castro R 2027 · 3.26 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.26 | 26.4% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .320 | 3.48 | 26.0% | 17.6% | 128 | +0.22 | 3.07 | 185 | 86 |
| Brad Boxberger R 2027 · 3.86 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.86 | 27.3% | 10.0% | 3.3% | .280 | 4.05 | 28.5% | 17.2% | 107 | +0.19 | 3.02 | 363 | 86 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2028 · 3.68 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.68 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.1% | .289 | 3.07 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -0.61 | 2.31 | 403 | 86 |
| Steve Geltz R 2027 · 3.88 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.88 | 22.7% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .209 | 4.78 | 22.2% | 12.0% | 89 | +0.90 | 3.57 | 157 | 86 |
| Héctor Neris R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.97 | 20.9% | 10.0% | 2.5% | .298 | 3.00 | 31.5% | 23.7% | 221 | -0.97 | 1.99 | 682 | 86 |
| Jose Rafael De Paula R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.45 | 19.9% | 9.8% | 3.3% | .278 | 4.78 | 22.7% | 10.3% | 89 | +0.33 | 2.65 | 315 | 86 |
| Madison Younginer IV R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.22 | 23.0% | 9.8% | 3.3% | .370 | 4.72 | 14.0% | -5.3% | 27 | +0.50 | 3.08 | 219 | 86 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.2 | $0.9M | +$0.0M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.2 | $1.0M | +$0.0M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.2M | +0.1 | $0.5M | +$0.2M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $5M | — | — | — |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $7M | — | — | — |
| Totals | $15M | $4M | -$12M | ||