Bryce Archie — OGILVIE

Bryce Archie P Daytona Tortugas

Age 22 RHP 6'3" / 212 lbs A peak 0.1 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 41 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129121vR 113

ERA5.06

FIP5.06

K%21.3%

BB%13.7%

K-BB%7.5%

ROS IP41

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 41 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	24	0	59	280	61	44	5	0%	2.4	16.3%	18.4%	-2.1%	2.3%	5.37	5.32	—
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Dayton Dragons	24	0	59	280	61	44	5	0%	2.4	16.3%	18.4%	-2.1%	2.3%	5.37	5.32	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A RAW	CIN	16	0	46	208	46	27	4	0%	2.9	22.1%	13.0%	9.1%	1.9%	3.69	3.93	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	CIN	8	0	12	72	15	17	1	0%	1.5	20.8%	23.6%	-2.8%	1.4%	11.68	5.09	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	CIN	57	0	60	252	56	31	7	0%	1.0	22.2%	12.1%	10.1%	2.9%	4.84	4.75	-0.1
2028	24	MLB MLE	CIN	58	0	61	258	59	29	8	0%	1.1	22.9%	11.1%	11.8%	2.9%	4.65	4.55	0.0
2029	25	MLB MLE	CIN	59	0	62	262	61	27	8	0%	1.1	23.3%	10.4%	12.9%	2.9%	4.51	4.42	+0.1
2030	26	MLB MLE	CIN	59	0	62	262	61	27	8	0%	1.1	23.5%	10.3%	13.1%	2.9%	4.44	4.40	+0.1
2031	27	MLB MLE	CIN	58	0	61	258	60	27	8	0%	1.1	23.4%	10.4%	13.1%	3.0%	4.44	4.44	+0.1
2027	23	MLB CTX	CIN	28	0	29	122	27	15	4	0%	1.0	22.2%	12.1%	10.1%	2.9%	4.84	4.75	-0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	CIN	41	0	43	182	42	20	5	0%	1.0	22.9%	11.1%	11.8%	2.9%	4.65	4.55	0.0
2029	25	MLB CTX	CIN	48	0	50	211	49	22	6	0%	1.0	23.3%	10.4%	12.9%	2.9%	4.51	4.42	+0.1
2030	26	MLB CTX	CIN	51	0	54	228	53	24	7	0%	1.1	23.5%	10.3%	13.1%	2.9%	4.44	4.40	+0.1
2031	27	MLB CTX	CIN	52	0	55	232	54	24	7	0%	1.1	23.4%	10.4%	13.1%	3.0%	4.44	4.44	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		221	0	232	978	226	105	29	0%	1.0	23.1%	10.7%	12.4%	2.9%	4.54	4.11	+1.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	195	91	25	0%	1.1	23.1%	10.7%	12.4%	2.9%	4.54	4.11	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		24	0	59	280	46	51	6	0%	2.4	16.3%	18.4%	-2.1%	2.3%	5.37	5.32	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		82	0	200	955	155	175	22	0%	2.4	16.3%	18.4%	-2.1%	2.3%	5.37	5.32	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Bryce Archie (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.06	21.3%	13.7%	3.0%	—	4.57	22.8%	11.6%	183	-0.49	—	—	—
Kyle Marman R 2019 · 3.97 FIP	22	SU	3.97	22.2%	12.8%	2.0%	.270	5.16	22.5%	8.4%	71	+1.19	3.97	117	86
Jayson McKinley R 2017 · 4.39 FIP	23	SU	4.39	17.5%	11.4%	2.4%	.308	3.60	20.4%	11.3%	134	-0.79	2.35	173	85
Brandyn Sittinger R 2017 · 4.37 FIP	23	SU	4.37	22.2%	13.8%	2.5%	.324	3.97	21.2%	7.2%	72	-0.40	3.58	152	85
José Mesa Jr. R 2016 · 5.41 FIP	22	SU	5.41	22.4%	17.2%	3.7%	.311	4.00	22.8%	9.6%	113	-1.41	3.33	176	85
Adam Ravenelle R 2015 · 4.32 FIP	22	SU	4.32	19.6%	14.8%	1.8%	.322	5.06	17.1%	4.3%	130	+0.74	4.32	165	84
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	84
Marc Davis R 2022 · 5.26 FIP	22	SU	5.26	20.7%	14.0%	3.9%	.151	4.87	17.1%	-0.3%	88	-0.39	4.02	111	84
Bryan Bonnell R 2016 · 4.32 FIP	22	SU	4.32	21.3%	11.3%	2.9%	.338	4.46	16.8%	10.5%	179	+0.14	3.55	333	83
Sean Isaac R 2016 · 4.27 FIP	23	SU	4.27	19.5%	12.3%	2.3%	.342	3.76	25.0%	10.7%	128	-0.51	3.27	155	83
Tyler Vogel R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	22	SU	4.93	23.4%	14.3%	3.6%	.305	4.48	19.1%	6.1%	135	-0.45	3.84	200	83
Bailey Dees R 2022 · 4.26 FIP	23	SU	4.26	21.3%	13.2%	2.4%	.248	4.35	21.3%	9.7%	278	+0.09	3.41	330	83
Alec Barger R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SW	4.55	21.7%	13.6%	2.8%	.289	4.17	21.3%	9.4%	148	-0.38	3.85	242	83
Tyler Santana R 2021 · 4.28 FIP	23	SU	4.28	20.3%	15.1%	1.8%	.333	4.37	16.0%	5.7%	259	+0.09	3.37	399	83
Jordan Mikel R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	22	SU	4.49	20.5%	12.5%	2.8%	.330	4.16	19.2%	9.0%	109	-0.33	3.04	195	82
Morgan McSweeney R 2021 · 5.36 FIP	23	SU	5.36	21.9%	16.3%	3.7%	.295	5.17	18.2%	4.9%	93	-0.19	3.20	213	82
Tanner Jacobson R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.8%	13.8%	2.1%	.313	4.89	21.1%	5.4%	115	+0.80	4.09	168	82
Brandon Dufault R 2021 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	22.1%	15.9%	3.8%	.278	4.83	21.0%	4.2%	66	-0.49	4.38	152	82
Junior Rincon R 2015 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	17.8%	13.8%	2.9%	.318	3.75	17.6%	5.1%	82	-1.18	3.52	113	82
Tyler Mitzel R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	23	SU	4.34	24.1%	12.0%	3.2%	.245	4.10	22.4%	14.3%	96	-0.24	4.03	142	82
Craig Missigman R 2016 · 4.01 FIP	22	SU	4.01	19.2%	11.4%	2.0%	.270	5.01	19.2%	10.4%	53	+1.00	4.01	124	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	58	22.8%	11.2%	1.13	4.63
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84