Dawson Brown — OGILVIE

Dawson Brown P Amarillo Sod Poodles

Age 25 RHP 6'1" / 200 lbs AA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 26 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133125vR 117

ERA5.25

FIP5.25

K%18.6%

BB%15.1%

K-BB%3.5%

ROS IP27

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 26 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	45	204	46	29	0	0%	1.2	17.0%	16.5%	0.5%	0.0%	3.60	3.75	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	45	204	46	29	0	0%	1.2	17.0%	16.5%	0.5%	0.0%	3.60	3.75	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	0	45	204	46	29	0	0%	1.2	22.5%	14.2%	8.3%	0.0%	3.60	2.99	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	34	0	62	275	75	35	5	0%	1.8	20.9%	15.2%	5.7%	2.4%	4.62	4.59	—
YTD	25	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	34	0	62	275	75	35	5	0%	1.8	20.9%	15.2%	5.7%	2.4%	4.62	4.59	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	A RAW	ARI	3	0	7	27	10	1	0	0%	2.2	37.0%	3.7%	33.3%	0.0%	2.70	0.44	—
2026	25	A+ RAW	ARI	8	0	16	72	20	8	0	0%	2.0	27.8%	11.1%	16.7%	0.0%	4.60	2.16	—
2026	25	AA RAW	ARI	23	0	40	176	45	26	5	0%	1.7	25.6%	14.8%	10.8%	2.8%	4.95	4.37	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	ARI	58	0	61	258	51	37	7	0%	1.1	19.7%	14.5%	5.2%	2.6%	5.13	5.11	-0.4
2028	27	MLB MLE	ARI	57	0	60	254	51	36	7	0%	1.1	19.9%	14.2%	5.8%	2.7%	5.08	5.09	-0.4
2027	26	MLB CTX	ARI	26	0	27	114	22	17	3	0%	1.0	19.7%	14.5%	5.2%	2.6%	5.13	5.11	-0.2
2028	27	MLB CTX	ARI	36	0	38	160	32	23	4	0%	1.1	19.9%	14.2%	5.8%	2.7%	5.08	5.09	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		62	0	65	274	54	39	7	0%	1.0	19.8%	14.3%	5.5%	2.7%	5.10	4.71	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	167	120	22	0%	1.1	19.8%	14.3%	5.5%	2.7%	5.10	4.71	-0.4
Career	—	MLE		71	0	107	479	92	76	7	0%	1.5	19.2%	15.8%	3.5%	1.4%	4.19	4.24	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		132	0	200	893	172	141	12	0%	1.5	19.2%	15.8%	3.5%	1.4%	4.19	4.24	-1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dawson Brown (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.25	18.6%	15.1%	2.6%	—	5.10	19.8%	5.5%	121	-0.15	—	—	—
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	90
Ray Gaither R 2023 · 4.89 FIP	25	SU	4.89	18.1%	16.4%	2.3%	.278	4.19	17.7%	6.6%	90	-0.70	3.90	164	89
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.42	16.0%	3.7%	182	-0.14	3.46	237	88
Andrew McInvale R 2022 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	17.6%	15.9%	2.8%	.324	6.44	24.5%	10.0%	23	+1.29	4.92	103	88
Jake Gilbert R 2022 · 4.65 FIP	25	SU	4.65	18.2%	16.2%	1.9%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	103	87
Derek Eitel R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	27	SU	4.35	18.1%	13.9%	1.8%	.338	4.26	19.7%	5.0%	113	-0.09	3.96	138	86
Yordy Cabrera R 2016 · 4.99 FIP	25	SU	4.99	15.8%	17.2%	1.9%	.321	4.17	13.7%	2.7%	140	-0.82	3.43	159	86
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	86
Carlos Ramirez R 2016 · 4.24 FIP	25	SU	4.24	18.9%	14.5%	1.6%	.291	3.10	23.5%	14.5%	103	-1.14	2.62	177	86
Cody Scroggins R 2022 · 4.50 FIP	25	SU	4.50	20.5%	16.2%	2.0%	.351	3.78	14.2%	4.6%	18	-0.72	3.78	108	86
Jacob Webb R 2023 · 4.55 FIP	24	SU	4.55	19.8%	15.3%	2.1%	.283	4.56	18.8%	8.2%	155	+0.01	3.33	268	86
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	85
Danny Reynolds R 2016 · 4.72 FIP	25	SU	4.72	16.6%	16.8%	1.6%	.263	3.71	16.0%	4.3%	88	-1.01	3.29	165	85
Yaramil Hiraldo R 2021 · 4.86 FIP	25	SU	4.86	18.5%	15.5%	2.5%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	2.88	153	85
Tanner Duncan R 2019 · 5.37 FIP	24	SU	5.37	17.5%	14.8%	3.4%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.28	123	85
Tyler Burch R 2023 · 4.92 FIP	25	SU	4.92	15.0%	12.6%	2.7%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	119	84
Marc Brakeman R 2018 · 4.67 FIP	24	SU	4.67	18.3%	13.7%	2.5%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.85	156	84
Matt Lollis R 2016 · 4.95 FIP	25	SU	4.95	19.2%	14.5%	3.0%	.221	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	120	84
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	84
Sean Wymer R 2022 · 4.71 FIP	25	SU	4.71	18.2%	14.1%	2.5%	.227	—	—	—	—	—	4.18	188	84

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	49	19.6%	14.5%	1.03	5.13
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77