Dawson Brown
P
Hillsboro Hops
Age 25
RHP
6'1" / 200 lbs
A+
2026 ROS PROJECTION36 act + 27 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122112vR 103
ERA4.52
FIP4.52
K%21.6%
BB%11.3%
K-BB%10.3%
ROS IP27
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 63 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 0 | 45 | 204 | 46 | 29 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 17.0% | 16.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 3.60 | 3.75 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 0 | 45 | 204 | 46 | 29 | 0 | 0% | 1.2 | 22.5% | 14.2% | 8.3% | 0.0% | 3.60 | 2.99 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | 20 | 0 | 36 | 159 | 48 | 20 | 4 | 0% | 1.8 | 22.7% | 16.1% | 6.6% | 3.6% | 4.25 | 5.22 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | ARI | 26 | 0 | 27 | 113 | 24 | 13 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.6% | 11.3% | 10.3% | 2.6% | 4.52 | 4.52 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 21.6% | 11.3% | 10.3% | 2.6% | 4.52 | 4.52 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 63 | 272 | 72 | 33 | 7 | — | — | 26.6% | 12.1% | 14.6% | 2.6% | 4.37 | 4.92 | -0.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 21.6% | 11.3% | 10.3% | 2.6% | 4.52 | 4.14 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | ARI | 26 | 0 | 27 | 113 | 25 | 13 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.0% | 11.1% | 10.9% | 2.6% | 4.49 | 4.48 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | ARI | 11 | 0 | 12 | 51 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.0% | 11.1% | 10.9% | 2.6% | 4.49 | 4.48 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 11 | 0 | 12 | 49 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.0% | 11.1% | 10.9% | 2.6% | 4.49 | 4.10 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 189 | 86 | 17 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.0% | 11.1% | 10.9% | 2.6% | 4.49 | 4.10 | +3.0 | ||
| Career | — | 57 | 0 | 81 | 363 | 71 | 59 | 6 | 0% | 1.4 | 19.5% | 16.3% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 3.89 | 4.40 | +0.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 141 | 0 | 200 | 896 | 175 | 146 | 14 | 0% | 1.4 | 19.5% | 16.3% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 3.89 | 4.40 | +2.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Dawson Brown (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.52 | 21.6% | 11.3% | 2.6% | — | 4.48 | 22.0% | 10.9% | 27 | -0.04 | — | — | — |
| Chris Jefferson R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.74 | 22.4% | 10.2% | 2.3% | .330 | 4.97 | 16.5% | 3.9% | 101 | +1.23 | 3.74 | 140 | 91 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2027 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.91 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.5% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.01 | 3.21 | 161 | 89 |
| Jason Stoffel R 2027 · 3.54 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.54 | 23.4% | 10.1% | 2.1% | .267 | 3.70 | 27.2% | 19.2% | 59 | +0.16 | 3.54 | 103 | 88 |
| Dylan Hall R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.02 | 21.0% | 13.2% | 1.9% | .305 | 7.93 | 15.1% | 2.4% | 58 | +3.91 | 3.54 | 153 | 88 |
| Dakota Donovan R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.70 | 21.9% | 10.3% | 2.1% | .291 | 3.67 | 18.9% | 6.4% | 50 | -0.03 | 3.17 | 153 | 87 |
| Jackson Hicks R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.94 | 22.6% | 10.5% | 2.6% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 116 | 87 |
| Cameron Gann R 2025 · 4.16 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.16 | 21.4% | 12.4% | 2.4% | .296 | 5.44 | 21.1% | 6.8% | 23 | +1.28 | 3.52 | 146 | 87 |
| Tyler Mitzel R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.95 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 2.0% | .323 | 4.34 | 23.4% | 17.9% | 58 | +0.39 | 3.95 | 142 | 86 |
| Taylor Floyd R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.14 | 21.7% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .331 | 4.88 | 18.1% | 8.6% | 167 | +0.74 | 3.34 | 334 | 85 |
| Ben Hecht R 2025 · 4.56 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.56 | 22.7% | 12.9% | 3.2% | .293 | 7.95 | 14.1% | -11.4% | 13 | +3.39 | 4.55 | 155 | 85 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2027 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.16 | 24.5% | 13.2% | 2.6% | .256 | 4.34 | 20.3% | 9.0% | 115 | +0.18 | 3.78 | 180 | 85 |
| Barrett Loseke R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.36 | 21.7% | 10.1% | 3.3% | .311 | 5.39 | 24.0% | 10.9% | 22 | +1.03 | 4.36 | 152 | 85 |
| Jordan Milbrath R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.04 | 19.9% | 10.4% | 2.4% | .272 | 3.57 | 19.6% | 9.7% | 129 | -0.47 | 3.26 | 386 | 85 |
| Easton Sikorski R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.24 | 21.1% | 10.6% | 2.9% | .286 | 6.43 | 14.1% | 7.0% | 24 | +2.19 | 4.09 | 183 | 85 |
| Guido Knudson R 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.49 | 20.7% | 11.1% | 1.3% | .255 | 4.83 | 17.5% | 6.7% | 47 | +1.34 | 3.49 | 106 | 85 |
| Gavin Hollowell R 2026 · 4.35 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.35 | 21.7% | 10.7% | 3.1% | .273 | 3.78 | 28.1% | 13.4% | 81 | -0.57 | 2.30 | 208 | 85 |
| Zach Franklin R 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.53 | 26.4% | 10.9% | 2.3% | .301 | 4.31 | 28.4% | 19.1% | 97 | +0.78 | 3.48 | 138 | 84 |
| Will Latcham R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.56 | 18.8% | 11.5% | 2.9% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 134 | 84 |
| Roman Mendez R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.12 | 19.1% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .275 | 4.62 | 20.2% | 10.4% | 118 | +0.50 | 4.12 | 230 | 84 |
| Luis Ramirez R 2025 · 3.58 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.58 | 24.0% | 12.6% | 1.7% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 104 | 84 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 27 | 21.8% | 11.2% | 1.02 | 4.50 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |
| Keegan Thompson ('24) | 4 | 57 | 23.0% | 11.3% | 1.19 | 3.64 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |