Zach Thornton

P New York Mets

Age 25 LHP 6'3" / 170 lbs MLB Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 1.2 · 2028

Overview

MLBSP40-MANFG #299Pre-ArbFA 2032

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX2 levels	20	12	68	4.10	3.07	18.4%	6.1%	—	K 13.8% · BB 7.2% · FIP 3.90
2025	23	MIX2 levels	14	14	73	1.98	2.30	28.5%	4.0%	—	K 22.7% · BB 4.5% · FIP 2.95
2026	24	MIX3 levels	29	28	147	3.67	4.22	21.1%	7.4%	1.2	K 19.4% · BB 7.3% · FIP 4.46
2027PROJ	25	MLBNYM	14	14	84	4.20	4.57	17.9%	4.9%	0.3
2028PROJ95% MLB	26	MLBNYM	22	22	132	4.35	4.48	18.9%	5.2%	0.6
2029PROJ95% MLB	27	MLBNYM	22	22	134	4.43	4.50	19.1%	5.4%	0.6

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.2 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2031Service1.000First FA2032

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Arb-1$3M2030Arb-2$5M2031Arb-3$6M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs39

K%26

FB Velo19

Whiff%10

CompsJake McSteen (age 25) · Colton Gordon (age 25) · Christian Friedrich (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 102110vR 118

ERA4.20

FIP4.57

K%17.9%

BB%4.9%

K-BB%13.0%

Proj IP84

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 84 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$2M ctrl surplus

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4550

CTRL6060

CMD6070

K†4045

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1992.3

Whiff%

p1017.8%

p2618.7%

xwOBA vs

p390.325

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 1.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$2M
2029	Arb-1	$3M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-2	$5M	+0.5	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-3	$6M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$8M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	12	68	294	54	18	4	60%	3.4	13.8%	7.2%	6.6%	1.9%	4.10	3.90	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	12	68	294	54	18	4	60%	3.4	13.8%	7.2%	6.6%	1.9%	4.10	3.90	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	12	68	294	54	18	4	60%	3.4	18.4%	6.1%	12.2%	1.4%	4.10	3.07	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	14	73	274	78	11	5	100%	5.2	22.7%	4.5%	18.2%	2.2%	1.98	2.95	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	14	73	274	78	11	5	100%	5.2	22.7%	4.5%	18.2%	2.2%	1.98	2.95	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	14	73	274	78	11	5	100%	5.2	28.5%	4.0%	24.5%	1.8%	1.98	2.30	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	28	147	606	128	45	22	97%	5.1	19.4%	7.3%	12.1%	3.8%	3.67	4.46	+0.8
2026	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	29	28	147	606	128	45	22	97%	5.1	19.4%	7.3%	12.1%	3.8%	3.67	4.46	+0.8
2026	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	29	28	147	606	128	45	22	97%	5.1	21.1%	7.4%	13.7%	3.6%	3.67	4.22	+1.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			15	15	84	337	63	18	14	100%	5.6	18.7%	5.3%	13.4%	4.2%	3.42	4.40	+0.5
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	NYM	14	14	84	355	63	18	13	100%	6.0	17.9%	4.9%	13.0%	3.6%	4.20	4.57	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	NYM	23	23	139	588	111	30	21	100%	6.1	18.9%	5.2%	13.7%	3.5%	4.35	4.48	+0.7
2029	27	MLB MLE	NYM	24	24	141	596	114	32	21	100%	5.9	19.1%	5.4%	13.6%	3.5%	4.43	4.50	+0.7
2030	28	MLB MLE	NYM	24	24	141	596	114	34	22	100%	5.9	19.1%	5.7%	13.4%	3.6%	4.51	4.57	+0.5
2031	29	MLB MLE	NYM	22	22	135	569	106	34	21	100%	6.1	18.6%	6.0%	12.6%	3.7%	4.64	4.72	+0.3
2032	30	MLB MLE	NYM	21	21	127	535	96	34	21	100%	6.0	17.9%	6.3%	11.6%	3.9%	4.81	4.93	-0.0
2033	31	MLB MLE	NYM	20	20	118	499	85	33	21	100%	5.9	17.1%	6.6%	10.5%	4.2%	5.02	5.16	-0.3
2028	26	MLB CTX	NYM	22	22	132	557	105	29	20	100%	6.0	18.9%	5.2%	13.7%	3.5%	4.35	4.48	+0.6
2029	27	MLB CTX	NYM	22	22	134	566	108	31	20	100%	6.1	19.1%	5.4%	13.6%	3.5%	4.43	4.50	+0.6
2030	28	MLB CTX	NYM	22	22	134	566	108	32	20	100%	6.1	19.1%	5.7%	13.4%	3.6%	4.51	4.57	+0.5
2031	29	MLB CTX	NYM	21	21	128	540	100	32	20	100%	6.1	18.6%	6.0%	12.6%	3.7%	4.63	4.71	+0.3
2032	30	MLB CTX	NYM	20	20	120	507	91	32	20	100%	6.0	17.9%	6.3%	11.6%	3.9%	4.80	4.92	-0.0
2033	31	MLB CTX	NYM	19	19	112	473	81	31	20	100%	5.9	17.1%	6.6%	10.5%	4.2%	5.01	5.15	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		142	142	846	3551	657	206	134	100%	6.0	18.5%	5.8%	12.7%	3.8%	4.49	4.34	+5.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	840	155	49	32	100%	6.0	18.5%	5.8%	12.7%	3.8%	4.49	4.34	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		63	54	288	1174	220	77	35	86%	4.6	18.8%	6.6%	12.2%	2.9%	3.35	3.97	+2.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	38	200	816	153	54	24	86%	4.6	18.8%	6.6%	12.2%	2.9%	3.35	3.97	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Zach Thornton (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.57	17.9%	4.9%	3.6%	—	4.52	19.0%	13.6%	422	-0.05	—	—	—
Jake McSteen L 2021 · 5.05 FIP	25	SP-	5.05	16.8%	7.3%	4.5%	.322	5.18	19.2%	12.5%	172	+0.13	2.22	286	79
Colton Gordon L 2024 · 3.89 FIP	25	SP	3.89	20.4%	6.7%	3.0%	.286	4.69	18.3%	13.4%	281	+0.80	2.73	586	78
Christian Friedrich L 2012 · 4.26 FIP	25	SP	4.26	19.6%	8.0%	3.3%	.340	3.59	19.0%	10.6%	83	-0.67	3.39	297	76
Brant Hurter L 2024 · 3.80 FIP	25	SP-	3.80	19.7%	5.4%	3.1%	.298	3.08	21.7%	12.6%	98	-0.72	2.84	440	76
Nick Bush L 2022 · 4.76 FIP	25	SP	4.76	19.3%	4.3%	5.0%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	320	74
Jake Bennett L 2023 · 3.41 FIP	22	SP	3.41	21.2%	7.2%	2.2%	.339	3.29	19.3%	13.9%	222	-0.12	3.22	285	73
J.C. Romero L 2001 · 4.89 FIP	25	SP-	4.89	13.6%	8.0%	3.5%	.285	3.46	20.7%	10.3%	218	-1.43	2.88	652	73
Anthony Veneziano L 2023 · 4.21 FIP	25	SP	4.21	19.4%	8.0%	3.1%	.292	4.51	17.5%	8.3%	190	+0.30	4.18	539	72
Juan Pablo Oramas L 2015 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	16.5%	8.6%	2.2%	.313	3.87	17.4%	6.8%	186	-0.12	3.46	440	72
Jordan Carr L 2022 · 3.86 FIP	25	SP-	3.86	12.5%	5.2%	2.1%	.304	4.01	14.9%	6.2%	162	+0.15	3.49	269	72
Will Dion L 2024 · 4.97 FIP	24	SP	4.97	19.3%	9.4%	4.2%	.309	3.39	23.5%	16.3%	186	-1.58	3.14	535	71
Austin Emener L 2024 · 4.86 FIP	22	SP	4.86	19.4%	9.3%	4.1%	.306	5.38	21.4%	5.6%	63	+0.52	4.86	123	71
Shane Murphy L 2024 · 5.52 FIP	23	SP-	5.52	16.4%	4.7%	5.8%	.262	4.77	15.6%	10.2%	272	-0.75	4.00	460	71
Dalton Sawyer L 2017 · 4.11 FIP	23	SP-	4.11	20.6%	9.4%	2.8%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	160	71
Tim Cooney L 2015 · 3.55 FIP	24	SP	3.55	18.0%	5.1%	2.4%	.225	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	120	71
Zach Hirsch L 2015 · 3.47 FIP	25	SP-	3.47	11.2%	3.2%	1.7%	.299	2.82	16.9%	12.0%	59	-0.65	2.82	162	71
Antonio Velez L 2022 · 5.02 FIP	25	SP	5.02	19.5%	6.5%	5.0%	.324	5.02	18.7%	12.5%	26	+0.00	3.58	187	70
Chris Jones L 2015 · 3.80 FIP	26	SP-	3.80	15.0%	4.9%	2.4%	.305	4.07	13.4%	5.6%	118	+0.27	3.80	268	70
David Purcey L 2008 · 4.39 FIP	26	SP	4.39	20.1%	10.0%	3.1%	.301	4.39	17.9%	5.0%	116	-0.00	3.60	206	70
Marco Tovar L 2015 · 3.78 FIP	26	SP	3.78	17.1%	7.8%	2.1%	.323	4.70	13.0%	6.1%	120	+0.92	3.78	327	70

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.8	121	18.5%	5.7%	1.46	4.47
Zach Plesac ('24)	2.4	96	18.1%	6.5%	1.43	4.31
Johnny Marcum ('33-'39, 13 WAR*)	5.5	157	18.4%*	6.2%*	1.37*	4.18*
Iván Nova ('20)	6.7	135	16.7%	6.4%	1.24	4.38
Anthony DeSclafani ('25)	4.9	109	20.9%	6.4%	1.34	4.24
Rick Langford ('76-'86, 10 WAR*)	7.5	149	16.8%*	6.6%*	1.27*	4.48*
Ad Brennan ('10-'18, 6 WAR*)	3.4	113	18.9%*	6.9%*	1.31*	4.13*