Aiden Butler
P
Inland Empire 66ers
Age 22
RHP
6'6" / 193 lbs
A
peak 0.3 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION58 act + 52 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 151142vR 133
ERA5.90
FIP5.90
K%10.2%
BB%9.1%
K-BB%1.1%
ROS IP52
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 110 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 13 | 64 | 283 | 52 | 16 | 10 | 81% | 4.0 | 11.5% | 6.9% | 4.6% | 9.8% | 5.74 | 8.36 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 13 | 64 | 283 | 52 | 16 | 10 | 81% | 4.0 | 18.4% | 5.7% | 12.7% | 3.5% | 5.74 | 4.25 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | A | Inland Empire 66ers | 15 | 14 | 58 | 277 | 55 | 18 | 11 | 93% | 3.9 | 14.7% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 8.38 | 5.66 | -0.8 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | SEA | 10 | 10 | 52 | 222 | 23 | 20 | 9 | 100% | 5.2 | 10.2% | 9.1% | 1.1% | 3.9% | 5.90 | 5.90 | -0.8 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 10.2% | 9.1% | 1.1% | 3.9% | 5.90 | 5.90 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 22 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 110 | 499 | 78 | 38 | 20 | — | — | 15.5% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 3.9% | 7.20 | 5.78 | -0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | SEA | 10 | 10 | 54 | 230 | 31 | 20 | 9 | 100% | 5.5 | 13.4% | 8.8% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 5.60 | 5.51 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | SEA | 10 | 10 | 56 | 236 | 36 | 20 | 9 | 100% | 5.6 | 15.4% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 3.7% | 5.37 | 5.27 | -0.5 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | SEA | 10 | 10 | 57 | 239 | 40 | 20 | 9 | 100% | 5.7 | 16.6% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 3.6% | 5.21 | 5.14 | -0.4 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | SEA | 9 | 9 | 57 | 239 | 41 | 20 | 9 | 100% | 6.3 | 17.2% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 3.6% | 5.12 | 5.07 | -0.3 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | SEA | 9 | 9 | 56 | 236 | 40 | 20 | 9 | 100% | 6.2 | 17.2% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 3.6% | 5.12 | 5.11 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | SEA | 5 | 5 | 27 | 114 | 15 | 10 | 4 | 100% | 5.4 | 13.4% | 8.8% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 5.60 | 5.51 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | SEA | 7 | 7 | 39 | 165 | 25 | 14 | 6 | 100% | 5.6 | 15.4% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 3.7% | 5.37 | 5.27 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | SEA | 8 | 8 | 46 | 194 | 32 | 17 | 7 | 100% | 5.8 | 16.6% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 3.6% | 5.21 | 5.14 | -0.3 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | SEA | 8 | 8 | 49 | 207 | 36 | 18 | 7 | 100% | 6.1 | 17.2% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 3.6% | 5.12 | 5.07 | -0.3 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | SEA | 8 | 8 | 50 | 211 | 36 | 18 | 8 | 100% | 6.2 | 17.2% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 3.6% | 5.12 | 5.11 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 36 | 36 | 212 | 893 | 145 | 77 | 32 | 100% | 5.9 | 16.2% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 3.6% | 5.25 | 4.81 | +1.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 137 | 73 | 30 | 100% | 5.8 | 16.2% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 3.6% | 5.25 | 4.81 | +1.4 | ||
| Career | — | 31 | 27 | 122 | 560 | 73 | 41 | 42 | 87% | 3.9 | 13.1% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 6.99 | 7.03 | -2.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 51 | 44 | 200 | 916 | 120 | 67 | 69 | 87% | 3.9 | 13.1% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 6.99 | 7.03 | -3.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Aiden Butler (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.90 | 10.2% | 9.1% | 3.9% | — | 5.30 | 15.1% | 6.5% | 167 | -0.60 | — | — | — |
| Drew McDaniel R 2026 · 5.03 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.03 | 14.1% | 9.1% | 3.6% | .323 | 5.65 | 18.6% | 8.5% | 122 | +0.62 | 4.72 | 200 | 85 |
| Bryce Warrecker R 2026 · 5.43 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.43 | 11.3% | 11.7% | 3.3% | .271 | 3.28 | 21.7% | 13.4% | 72 | -2.15 | 2.48 | 135 | 85 |
| Cole Wiper R 2027 · 5.38 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.38 | 14.6% | 10.5% | 4.0% | .343 | 4.33 | 15.6% | 5.2% | 136 | -1.05 | 3.85 | 170 | 82 |
| Carlos Felix R 2025 · 5.22 FIP | 21 | SP | 5.22 | 12.9% | 6.7% | 4.3% | .374 | 4.97 | 8.7% | 2.4% | 64 | -0.25 | 4.97 | 121 | 81 |
| Jeremiah Burke R 2025 · 4.88 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.88 | 11.9% | 9.3% | 2.9% | .330 | 3.83 | 15.7% | 8.1% | 34 | -1.05 | 3.83 | 137 | 81 |
| Jose Campos R 2027 · 5.42 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.42 | 12.0% | 5.8% | 4.7% | .320 | 3.73 | 16.0% | 6.8% | 170 | -1.69 | 3.35 | 241 | 81 |
| Evan Truitt R 2026 · 5.93 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.93 | 12.8% | 12.2% | 4.3% | .281 | 5.58 | 14.1% | 7.0% | 73 | -0.35 | 5.58 | 172 | 80 |
| Brooks Auger R 2027 · 5.00 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.00 | 11.8% | 11.8% | 2.5% | .299 | 3.81 | 26.3% | 14.4% | 46 | -1.19 | 3.81 | 138 | 80 |
| Wellington Caceres R 2026 · 5.73 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.73 | 12.0% | 11.4% | 4.0% | .366 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.16 | 121 | 79 |
| Ben Hansen R 2027 · 4.86 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.86 | 12.5% | 11.9% | 2.4% | .372 | 4.29 | 21.5% | 13.2% | 88 | -0.57 | 4.29 | 149 | 78 |
| Grant Kipp R 2026 · 5.83 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.83 | 14.3% | 9.4% | 5.0% | .230 | 4.64 | 18.8% | 6.8% | 243 | -1.19 | 4.26 | 325 | 78 |
| Michael Ross R 2027 · 5.05 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.05 | 16.3% | 9.9% | 3.8% | .275 | 5.83 | 12.5% | 3.6% | 64 | +0.78 | 5.05 | 146 | 78 |
| Adrian Del Moral R 2026 · 6.80 FIP | 22 | SP- | 6.80 | 11.8% | 9.4% | 6.4% | .365 | 5.97 | 18.4% | -5.9% | 30 | -0.83 | 3.40 | 147 | 78 |
| Melvi Acosta R 2026 · 4.80 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.80 | 9.5% | 9.5% | 2.4% | .319 | 3.54 | 15.1% | 7.0% | 137 | -1.26 | 2.74 | 357 | 78 |
| Wuilberth Mendez R 2025 · 5.18 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.18 | 13.2% | 8.9% | 3.8% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 137 | 78 |
| Jaison Vilera R 2026 · 5.64 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.64 | 11.2% | 12.8% | 3.4% | .311 | 7.41 | 13.8% | 5.5% | 87 | +1.77 | 3.67 | 256 | 77 |
| Tommy Mace R 2027 · 5.24 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.24 | 16.0% | 12.1% | 3.6% | .261 | 5.13 | 14.7% | 2.7% | 376 | -0.11 | 4.93 | 501 | 77 |
| Josiah Romeo R 2024 · 5.37 FIP | 20 | SP | 5.37 | 14.4% | 11.1% | 3.8% | .353 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.22 | 110 | 77 |
| Michael Kelly R 2026 · 5.51 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.51 | 10.1% | 8.6% | 4.0% | .317 | 4.55 | 17.7% | 4.3% | 323 | -0.96 | 2.83 | 666 | 77 |
| Gage Hinsz R 2025 · 4.91 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.91 | 9.5% | 8.5% | 2.8% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.25 | 226 | 77 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 6 | 55 | 15.0% | 8.7% | 1.42 | 5.38 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Mike Wright Jr. ('19) | 5 | 52 | 17.7% | 8.4% | 1.53 | 6.00 |
| Ross Detwiler ('22) | 5 | 51 | 17.3% | 9.5% | 1.76 | 6.03 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Alex Young ('23) | 5 | 52 | 19.5% | 8.6% | 1.61 | 4.43 |
| Wily Peralta ('22) | 7 | 71 | 16.1% | 9.8% | 1.22 | 4.66 |