Aiden Butler — OGILVIE

Aiden Butler P Inland Empire 66ers

Age 22 RHP 6'6" / 193 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 1.1 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 52 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 139131vR 123

ERA5.58

FIP5.58

K%10.2%

BB%8.3%

K-BB%1.8%

ROS IP52

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$7M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF2525

CTRL5555

CMD3535

K†3040

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2034	Arb-1	$0.4M	—	—	—
2035	Arb-2	$5M	—	—	—
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.8M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	13	64	283	52	16	10	81%	4.0	11.5%	6.9%	4.6%	6.7%	5.74	6.66	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	13	64	283	52	16	10	81%	4.0	11.5%	6.9%	4.6%	6.7%	5.74	6.66	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	13	64	283	52	16	10	81%	4.0	18.4%	5.7%	12.7%	3.5%	5.74	4.25	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	22	21	89	424	81	29	15	95%	4.0	14.1%	8.1%	6.1%	4.6%	8.02	5.45	—
YTD	22	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	22	21	89	424	81	29	15	95%	4.0	14.1%	8.1%	6.1%	4.6%	8.02	5.45	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A RAW	SEA	22	21	89	424	81	29	15	95%	4.0	19.1%	6.8%	12.3%	3.5%	8.02	4.29	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	SEA	17	17	90	380	50	30	13	100%	5.3	13.3%	8.0%	5.3%	3.4%	5.31	5.22	-0.3
2028	24	MLB MLE	SEA	17	17	92	390	59	30	13	100%	5.4	15.2%	7.7%	7.5%	3.3%	5.09	4.99	-0.1
2029	25	MLB MLE	SEA	16	16	94	395	65	30	13	100%	5.8	16.4%	7.6%	8.8%	3.3%	4.94	4.86	+0.0
2030	26	MLB MLE	SEA	16	16	94	395	67	30	13	100%	5.8	17.0%	7.5%	9.4%	3.3%	4.85	4.80	+0.1
2031	27	MLB MLE	SEA	15	15	92	389	66	30	13	100%	6.1	17.0%	7.6%	9.4%	3.3%	4.84	4.84	+0.1
2032	28	MLB MLE	SEA	15	15	89	377	64	29	13	100%	6.0	16.8%	7.8%	9.1%	3.4%	4.89	4.92	-0.0
2033	29	MLB MLE	SEA	14	14	85	361	60	29	13	100%	6.1	16.6%	8.0%	8.6%	3.6%	4.99	5.06	-0.2
2034	30	MLB MLE	SEA	13	13	80	339	55	28	13	100%	6.2	16.2%	8.3%	8.0%	3.8%	5.14	5.23	-0.3
2027	23	MLB CTX	SEA	8	8	44	186	25	15	6	100%	5.5	13.3%	8.0%	5.3%	3.3%	5.26	5.17	-0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	SEA	11	11	64	270	41	21	9	100%	5.8	15.2%	7.7%	7.5%	3.2%	5.04	4.94	-0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	SEA	13	13	76	321	53	24	10	100%	5.8	16.4%	7.6%	8.8%	3.2%	4.89	4.81	+0.0
2030	26	MLB CTX	SEA	14	14	82	346	59	26	11	100%	5.9	17.0%	7.5%	9.4%	3.2%	4.80	4.75	+0.1
2031	27	MLB CTX	SEA	14	14	83	350	59	27	11	100%	5.9	17.0%	7.6%	9.4%	3.2%	4.79	4.79	+0.1
2032	28	MLB CTX	SEA	14	14	82	346	58	27	12	100%	5.9	16.8%	7.8%	9.1%	3.3%	4.84	4.87	-0.0
2033	29	MLB CTX	SEA	13	13	79	334	55	27	12	100%	6.1	16.6%	8.0%	8.6%	3.5%	4.94	5.01	-0.1
2034	30	MLB CTX	SEA	12	12	75	317	51	26	12	100%	6.2	16.2%	8.3%	8.0%	3.7%	5.09	5.18	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		100	100	587	2477	403	193	83	100%	5.9	16.3%	7.8%	8.5%	3.3%	4.94	4.55	+2.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	137	66	28	100%	5.9	16.3%	7.8%	8.5%	3.3%	4.94	4.55	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		38	34	153	707	93	54	38	89%	4.0	13.1%	7.6%	5.5%	5.4%	7.06	5.94	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	44	200	924	121	70	50	89%	4.0	13.1%	7.6%	5.5%	5.4%	7.06	5.94	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Aiden Butler (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.58	10.2%	8.3%	3.5%	—	5.02	15.0%	7.2%	276	-0.56	—	—	—
Drew McDaniel R 2023 · 4.71 FIP	22	SP	4.71	14.1%	9.1%	3.0%	.323	5.08	18.7%	8.7%	152	+0.37	4.24	230	85
Jose Campos R 2015 · 4.89 FIP	23	SP	4.89	12.0%	5.8%	3.8%	.320	3.67	16.0%	6.8%	170	-1.22	3.28	241	84
Carlos Felix R 2017 · 5.21 FIP	21	SP	5.21	12.9%	6.7%	4.3%	.374	4.92	8.7%	2.4%	64	-0.29	4.92	121	82
Bradley Brehmer R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SP	4.43	14.6%	9.5%	2.5%	.349	3.27	20.0%	11.5%	94	-1.16	2.83	165	82
Will Rudy R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.2%	9.2%	3.3%	.299	5.28	17.4%	8.6%	113	+0.52	4.76	194	81
Cole Wiper R 2015 · 5.41 FIP	23	SP	5.41	14.6%	10.5%	4.0%	.343	4.52	15.6%	5.2%	136	-0.89	3.97	170	81
Cody Sedlock R 2017 · 4.69 FIP	22	SP	4.69	12.6%	9.6%	2.6%	.353	4.45	18.2%	4.9%	115	-0.24	4.21	378	80
Jeremiah Burke R 2019 · 4.88 FIP	21	SP-	4.88	11.9%	9.3%	2.9%	.330	3.78	15.7%	8.1%	34	-1.10	3.78	137	80
Kevin Folman R 2018 · 4.54 FIP	23	SP	4.54	13.2%	5.9%	3.3%	.312	5.37	16.0%	6.4%	122	+0.83	4.54	161	80
Melvi Acosta R 2017 · 4.80 FIP	22	SP-	4.80	9.5%	9.5%	2.4%	.319	3.69	15.1%	7.0%	137	-1.11	2.74	357	79
Conor Fisk R 2015 · 4.77 FIP	23	SP-	4.77	11.2%	6.7%	3.2%	.282	4.20	15.2%	8.4%	352	-0.57	3.38	523	79
Gage Hinsz R 2017 · 4.88 FIP	21	SP	4.88	9.5%	8.5%	2.7%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	4.34	226	79
Grant Kipp R 2022 · 5.66 FIP	22	SP	5.66	14.3%	9.4%	4.7%	.230	4.57	18.8%	6.8%	243	-1.09	4.32	352	79
Michael Kelly R 2015 · 5.19 FIP	22	SP	5.19	10.1%	8.6%	3.4%	.317	4.56	17.7%	4.3%	323	-0.63	2.77	666	78
Michael Murray R 2016 · 4.71 FIP	22	SP	4.71	14.4%	7.3%	3.5%	.343	4.37	16.1%	6.8%	42	-0.34	4.32	116	78
Kenlly Montas R 2018 · 4.60 FIP	22	SP-	4.60	9.8%	10.4%	1.8%	.358	7.59	13.8%	-8.3%	26	+2.99	4.03	166	78
Derek Casey R 2019 · 5.30 FIP	23	SP	5.30	13.6%	8.5%	4.2%	.311	2.96	22.3%	13.2%	58	-2.34	2.96	180	78
Gerardo Salas R 2023 · 5.00 FIP	20	SP	5.00	14.0%	10.5%	3.2%	.307	4.94	17.5%	8.9%	273	-0.06	3.44	397	78
Archie Bradley R 2015 · 4.40 FIP	22	SP	4.40	16.0%	10.4%	2.4%	.315	3.25	24.6%	16.2%	327	-1.15	2.23	570	77
Nicholas Economos R 2016 · 5.28 FIP	21	SP	5.28	10.4%	9.8%	3.3%	.312	4.40	17.7%	8.7%	134	-0.88	4.40	223	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.8	86	15.7%	7.8%	1.32	5.04
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Ty Blach ('24)	2.5	84	12.8%	6.9%	1.23	5.56
Jaime Barria ('23)	2.3	77	17.9%	7.7%	1.61	4.38
Luis Perdomo ('22)	2.3	90	16.6%	7.8%	1.08	5.09
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32