Joey Volini

P Beloit Sky Carp

Age 24 LHP 6'4" / 247 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.5 · 2028

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2036

OGV OFP35OGV rank#682ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	MIX2 levels	6	1	10	0.87	0.49	38.5%	2.6%	—	K 38.5% · BB 2.6% · FIP 0.18
2026	23	MIX2 levels	17	15	67	4.70	3.58	24.8%	8.3%	—	K 19.5% · BB 9.3% · FIP 4.48
2027PROJ	24	MLBMIA	—	—	0	4.78	4.78	18.9%	9.3%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBMIA	7	7	39	4.56	4.51	20.4%	8.9%	0.4
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBMIA	10	10	62	4.46	4.41	21.2%	8.8%	0.7

Next 3 projected WAR 1.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Ext$0.9M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$0.8M2034Ext$0.7M+1

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 6.1, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 84%

CompsBrian Holmes (age 24) · Jimmy Robbins (age 24) · Hayden Wynja (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 108116vR 124

ERA4.78

FIP4.78

K%18.9%

BB%9.3%

K-BB%9.6%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$14M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.8M		$2M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	1	10	39	15	1	0	17%	1.7	38.5%	2.6%	35.9%	0.0%	0.87	0.18	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	1	10	39	15	1	0	17%	1.7	38.5%	2.6%	35.9%	0.0%	0.87	0.18	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	6	1	10	39	15	1	0	17%	1.7	38.5%	2.6%	35.9%	0.0%	0.87	0.49	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	15	67	290	72	24	8	88%	3.9	19.5%	9.3%	10.1%	3.4%	4.70	4.48	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	15	67	290	72	24	8	88%	3.9	19.5%	9.3%	10.1%	3.4%	4.70	4.48	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	15	67	290	72	24	8	88%	3.9	24.8%	8.3%	16.6%	2.8%	4.70	3.58	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	MIA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	18.9%	9.3%	9.6%	3.1%	4.78	4.78	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	MIA	15	15	90	380	77	34	12	100%	6.0	20.4%	8.9%	11.5%	3.1%	4.64	4.59	+0.8
2029	26	MLB MLE	MIA	15	15	93	392	83	34	12	100%	6.2	21.2%	8.8%	12.4%	3.1%	4.54	4.49	+1.0
2030	27	MLB MLE	MIA	15	15	88	373	79	33	12	100%	5.9	21.2%	8.8%	12.4%	3.1%	4.53	4.52	+0.9
2031	28	MLB MLE	MIA	14	14	84	354	75	32	11	100%	6.0	21.1%	8.9%	12.2%	3.2%	4.57	4.60	+0.8
2032	29	MLB MLE	MIA	13	13	78	328	68	30	11	100%	6.0	20.9%	9.1%	11.8%	3.4%	4.67	4.73	+0.6
2033	30	MLB MLE	MIA	12	12	70	296	61	28	11	100%	5.9	20.5%	9.4%	11.1%	3.6%	4.81	4.91	+0.4
2034	31	MLB MLE	MIA	10	10	63	264	53	26	10	100%	6.3	20.1%	9.8%	10.3%	3.8%	4.99	5.11	+0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	MIA	7	7	39	165	34	15	5	100%	5.6	20.4%	8.9%	11.5%	2.9%	4.56	4.51	+0.4
2029	26	MLB CTX	MIA	10	10	62	262	56	23	8	100%	6.2	21.2%	8.8%	12.4%	2.9%	4.46	4.41	+0.7
2030	27	MLB CTX	MIA	11	11	68	287	61	25	9	100%	6.2	21.2%	8.8%	12.4%	3.0%	4.44	4.43	+0.7
2031	28	MLB CTX	MIA	12	12	70	296	62	26	9	100%	5.8	21.1%	8.9%	12.2%	3.1%	4.48	4.51	+0.6
2032	29	MLB CTX	MIA	11	11	68	287	60	26	9	100%	6.2	20.9%	9.1%	11.8%	3.2%	4.58	4.64	+0.5
2033	30	MLB CTX	MIA	10	10	63	266	55	25	9	100%	6.3	20.5%	9.4%	11.1%	3.4%	4.71	4.81	+0.4
2034	31	MLB CTX	MIA	10	10	57	241	48	24	9	100%	5.7	20.1%	9.8%	10.3%	3.6%	4.89	5.01	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		71	71	428	1805	376	164	57	100%	6.0	20.8%	9.1%	11.7%	3.2%	4.58	4.23	+5.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	176	77	27	100%	6.0	20.8%	9.1%	11.7%	3.2%	4.58	4.23	+2.7
Career	—	MLE		23	16	77	329	71	28	10	70%	3.4	21.7%	8.5%	13.2%	3.0%	4.19	3.97	+4.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		59	41	200	851	185	73	25	70%	3.4	21.7%	8.5%	13.2%	3.0%	4.19	3.97	+1.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Beloit Sky Carp · 34 IPFIP 2.64 → 3.71 (+1.08)K% 32.2% → 24.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.19%	—	×0.770	24.79%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.90%	—	×1.150	10.24%
HR / BF /BF	2.05%	÷1.000	×1.250	2.57%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.64 → 3.71, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 33 IPFIP 4.51 → 5.26 (+0.76)K% 17.4% → 14.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.36%	—	×0.810	14.06%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.64%	—	×1.100	8.40%
HR / BF /BF	3.47%	÷1.000	×1.200	4.17%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.51 → 5.26, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Beloit Sky Carp · 7 IPFIP 0.33 → 1.14 (+0.80)K% 37.9% → 29.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	37.93%	—	×0.770	29.21%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.45%	—	×1.150	3.97%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.006	×1.250	0.00%

Result: FIP 0.33 → 1.14, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Joey Volini (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.1%	—	4.53	20.9%	12.1%	271	-0.25	—	—	—
Brian Holmes L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	24	SP-	4.32	21.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.333	4.78	17.3%	8.0%	104	+0.46	3.60	205	85
Jimmy Robbins L 2022 · 3.85 FIP	24	SP-	3.85	23.3%	11.3%	2.3%	.286	4.82	18.0%	2.8%	99	+0.97	3.85	176	85
Hayden Wynja L 2023 · 4.74 FIP	24	SP-	4.74	20.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.315	4.79	18.0%	7.5%	56	+0.05	4.74	154	83
Luis Leroy Cruz L 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SP-	5.03	16.0%	10.1%	3.7%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	5.03	116	83
Hayden Mullins L 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	23.4%	12.4%	3.1%	.288	3.69	25.5%	11.8%	194	-0.70	3.54	283	83
T.J. Sikkema L 2022 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	21.9%	9.0%	3.9%	.298	4.54	16.9%	7.5%	231	-0.01	3.57	300	82
A.J. Block L 2021 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	22.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.262	5.74	20.1%	8.4%	51	+2.02	3.65	203	82
Jake McSteen L 2021 · 5.05 FIP	25	SP-	5.05	16.8%	7.3%	4.5%	.322	5.18	19.2%	12.5%	172	+0.13	2.22	286	82
Billy Traber L 2003 · 4.17 FIP	23	SP-	4.17	17.5%	7.2%	3.0%	.321	4.17	12.4%	6.5%	43	+0.00	3.75	211	81
Odalis Perez L 2001 · 3.77 FIP	24	SP-	3.77	17.0%	9.3%	1.7%	.336	3.91	17.5%	12.8%	604	+0.14	3.40	1,324	79
Chipper Smith L 2015 · 3.81 FIP	25	SP-	3.81	15.6%	9.5%	1.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	109	79
Bryan Radziewski L 2015 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	16.4%	10.5%	2.0%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.15	106	79
Justin Marks L 2015 · 4.60 FIP	27	SP-	4.60	15.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.323	3.88	19.0%	9.1%	216	-0.72	3.83	324	79
Danny Wirchansky L 2024 · 4.47 FIP	27	SP-	4.47	16.2%	7.4%	3.3%	.246	5.88	13.0%	0.2%	68	+1.41	4.47	179	78
Dalton Sawyer L 2017 · 4.11 FIP	23	SP-	4.11	20.6%	9.4%	2.8%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	160	78
John Michael Bertrand L 2023 · 3.71 FIP	25	SP-	3.71	14.8%	8.1%	1.5%	.294	4.33	14.2%	5.3%	345	+0.62	3.71	463	77
Chuck James L 2006 · 4.88 FIP	24	SP-	4.88	18.1%	8.9%	4.0%	.233	5.50	16.5%	8.1%	191	+0.62	4.88	310	77
Will Dion L 2024 · 4.97 FIP	24	SP	4.97	19.3%	9.4%	4.2%	.309	3.39	23.5%	16.3%	186	-1.58	3.14	535	77
Marc Rzepczynski L 2010 · 4.23 FIP	24	SP	4.23	19.9%	10.1%	2.8%	.332	3.54	21.2%	13.0%	139	-0.69	2.43	491	77
Demetrio Gutierrez L 2015 · 5.33 FIP	25	SP-	5.33	12.3%	8.5%	4.0%	.327	4.78	10.7%	3.9%	181	-0.55	3.68	322	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.3	82	20.6%	9.1%	1.27	4.68
Odell Jones ('75-'88, 2 WAR*)	2.7	78	20.8%*	8.8%*	1.18*	4.62*
Scott Sanders ('99)	3.4	97	21.2%	9.3%	1.23	4.86
Adam Conley ('21)	2.2	87	19.8%	9.4%	1.16	4.71
Rich Folkers ('70-'77, -0 WAR*)	2.1	85	19.1%*	8.8%*	1.35*	4.91*
Mike Trombley ('02)	4.0	80	19.4%	9.2%	1.29	4.48
Dave Hamilton ('72-'80, 2 WAR*)	3.5	78	21.3%*	10.2%*	1.13*	4.58*