Joey Volini — OGILVIE

Joey Volini P Beloit Sky Carp

Age 23 LHP 6'4" / 247 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.9 · 2028

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 33 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 103111vR 119

ERA4.52

FIP4.52

K%21.3%

BB%9.3%

K-BB%12.0%

ROS IP33

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 33 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$10M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	1	10	39	15	1	0	17%	1.7	38.5%	2.6%	35.9%	0.0%	0.87	0.18	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	1	10	39	15	1	0	17%	1.7	38.5%	2.6%	35.9%	0.0%	0.87	0.18	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	6	1	10	39	15	1	0	17%	1.7	38.5%	2.6%	35.9%	0.0%	0.87	0.49	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	17	15	67	290	72	24	8	88%	3.9	19.5%	9.3%	10.1%	3.4%	4.70	4.48	—
YTD	23	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	17	15	67	290	72	24	8	88%	3.9	19.5%	9.3%	10.1%	3.4%	4.70	4.48	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A+ RAW	MIA	10	8	34	146	47	13	3	80%	3.4	32.2%	8.9%	23.3%	2.1%	4.50	2.64	—
2026	23	AA RAW	MIA	7	7	33	144	25	11	5	100%	4.7	17.4%	7.6%	9.7%	3.5%	4.91	4.51	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	MIA	12	12	67	284	63	25	8	100%	5.6	22.1%	8.9%	13.2%	3.0%	4.43	4.39	+0.4
2028	25	MLB MLE	MIA	12	12	68	287	65	25	9	100%	5.7	22.5%	8.7%	13.8%	3.0%	4.36	4.32	+0.5
2029	26	MLB MLE	MIA	11	11	68	287	65	25	9	100%	6.2	22.8%	8.7%	14.1%	3.0%	4.32	4.29	+0.5
2030	27	MLB MLE	MIA	11	11	67	283	64	25	9	100%	6.1	22.8%	8.8%	14.0%	3.0%	4.33	4.33	+0.4
2031	28	MLB MLE	MIA	11	11	65	274	62	25	9	100%	5.9	22.7%	8.9%	13.7%	3.1%	4.38	4.42	+0.4
2027	24	MLB CTX	MIA	5	5	29	122	27	11	3	100%	5.8	22.1%	8.9%	13.2%	2.8%	4.35	4.31	+0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	MIA	8	8	45	190	43	17	5	100%	5.6	22.5%	8.7%	13.8%	2.8%	4.28	4.24	+0.3
2029	26	MLB CTX	MIA	9	9	54	228	52	20	6	100%	6.0	22.8%	8.7%	14.1%	2.8%	4.24	4.21	+0.4
2030	27	MLB CTX	MIA	10	10	57	241	55	21	7	100%	5.7	22.8%	8.8%	14.0%	2.9%	4.25	4.25	+0.4
2031	28	MLB CTX	MIA	10	10	58	245	55	22	7	100%	5.8	22.7%	8.9%	13.7%	3.0%	4.29	4.33	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		41	41	243	1026	232	90	30	100%	5.9	22.6%	8.8%	13.8%	2.9%	4.27	3.88	+3.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	191	74	25	100%	5.9	22.6%	8.8%	13.8%	2.9%	4.27	3.88	+2.4
Career	—	MLE		23	16	77	329	71	28	10	70%	3.4	21.7%	8.5%	13.2%	3.0%	4.19	3.97	+2.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		59	41	200	851	185	73	25	70%	3.4	21.7%	8.5%	13.2%	3.0%	4.19	3.97	+1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Joey Volini (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.52	21.3%	9.3%	3.0%	—	4.33	22.5%	13.7%	203	-0.19	—	—	—
Mac Lardner L 2021 · 4.75 FIP	23	SP-	4.75	18.9%	8.5%	4.0%	.332	4.34	17.5%	8.1%	119	-0.41	3.66	186	84
Ryan Williamson L 2018 · 4.10 FIP	23	SP-	4.10	18.4%	5.9%	3.3%	.286	5.57	18.4%	5.8%	102	+1.47	4.10	123	83
Jimmy Robbins L 2022 · 3.85 FIP	24	SP-	3.85	23.3%	11.3%	2.3%	.286	4.83	17.9%	2.7%	99	+0.98	3.85	176	82
Brady Basso L 2021 · 3.93 FIP	23	SP-	3.93	21.8%	8.7%	2.8%	.333	4.20	21.6%	15.5%	179	+0.27	2.24	306	81
T.J. Sikkema L 2022 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	21.9%	9.0%	3.9%	.298	4.54	16.8%	7.5%	231	-0.01	3.57	300	80
Tommy Shirley L 2015 · 3.35 FIP	26	SP-	3.35	19.6%	7.0%	1.9%	.252	4.93	13.0%	4.2%	106	+1.58	3.35	147	79
Matt Mikulski L 2022 · 4.92 FIP	23	SP-	4.92	19.4%	10.0%	4.0%	.360	6.03	16.3%	-2.8%	144	+1.11	4.92	223	79
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	79
Bailey Horn L 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP-	4.99	19.7%	12.7%	3.6%	.300	4.64	21.9%	9.9%	152	-0.35	3.96	265	78
Thomas Ireland L 2023 · 4.64 FIP	21	SP-	4.64	16.7%	8.7%	3.4%	.286	3.80	17.3%	7.9%	201	-0.84	2.95	245	78
Robby Ahlstrom L 2022 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP-	4.62	20.1%	9.0%	3.8%	.349	4.06	21.6%	8.6%	175	-0.56	3.74	330	77
Hogan Harris L 2019 · 3.84 FIP	22	SP	3.84	20.5%	10.6%	2.1%	.235	3.71	27.4%	12.7%	74	-0.13	3.11	495	76
Ben Brecht L 2021 · 4.43 FIP	23	SP	4.43	17.3%	5.5%	3.8%	.237	4.44	21.1%	17.2%	43	+0.01	4.43	118	75
Cole Ragans L 2021 · 5.14 FIP	23	SP	5.14	20.2%	11.2%	4.2%	.296	3.34	26.7%	17.4%	445	-1.80	2.48	623	74
Jake Bennett L 2023 · 3.41 FIP	22	SP	3.41	21.2%	7.2%	2.2%	.339	3.36	19.1%	13.6%	214	-0.05	3.32	277	74
Hayden Wynja L 2023 · 4.74 FIP	24	SP-	4.74	20.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.315	4.79	18.0%	7.5%	56	+0.05	4.74	154	74
A.J. Block L 2021 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	22.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.262	5.74	20.1%	8.4%	51	+2.02	3.65	203	73
Evan Lee L 2021 · 3.84 FIP	24	SP	3.84	24.2%	11.1%	2.5%	.333	4.49	21.0%	2.7%	52	+0.65	3.82	129	73
Jack Owen L 2021 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	17.6%	5.0%	4.2%	.359	4.22	16.0%	8.7%	201	-0.36	3.44	221	73
Christian MacLeod L 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	16.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.312	4.60	19.5%	5.2%	212	+0.08	3.90	277	73

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.8	61	22.5%	8.8%	1.17	4.38
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Archie Bradley ('21)	2.2	74	23.2%	9.8%	0.85	3.93