Luke Pelzer

LF Quad Cities River Bandits

Age 24 L/L 5'10" / 190 lbs A+ HR -15%K -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

Scout OFP40ETA2030MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	22	AKC	83	.446/.561/.585	0	6	166	—	.357/.451/.471
2026	23	AANorthwest Ark…	186	.337/.416/.405	0	14	99	—	.294/.351/.353
2026	23	A+KC	295	.337/.405/.506	4	28	105	—	.285/.337/.415
2027PROJ0% MLB	24	MLBKC	2	.233/.294/.318	0	0	75	-0.0
2028PROJ22% MLB	25	MLBKC	82	.236/.298/.331	1	3	79	-0.1
2029PROJ35% MLB	26	MLBKC	141	.237/.300/.339	2	4	83	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Ext$3M+2

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA

Whiff%90

Speed86

Z-Con%85

wOBA78

K%78

wRC+75

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 2, comp-based) · star 3% · didn't stick 89%

CompsKyle Wren (age 24) · Jacob Young (age 24) · Zack Granite (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†75

AVG/OBP/SLG.233 / .294 / .318

PA2

HR0

K%24

BB%7

BABIP305

ISO86

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$3M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 55 / POW 30

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT55

scouting grade only

POWER30

scouting grade only

EYE49

scouting grade only

SPEED70

scouting grade only

DEFENSE50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	22	A	Columbia Fireflies	—	83	65	29	9	0	0	15	10	2	6	3	446	561	585	1.146	138	518	12	18	501	166	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AA	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	186	163	55	7	2	0	20	36	2	14	4	337	416	405	821	67	430	19	11	372	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A+	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	295	261	88	18	7	4	30	63	0	28	4	337	405	506	911	169	431	21	10	397	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	22	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	—	83	70	25	8	0	0	10	14	2	6	3	357	451	471	923	114	441	17	12	413	166	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	186	170	50	6	2	0	13	44	2	14	4	294	351	353	704	59	391	24	7	315	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	295	270	77	14	6	3	21	80	0	28	4	285	337	415	752	130	386	27	7	324	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	—	83	70	25	8	0	0	10	14	2	6	3	357	451	471	923	114	439	17	12	413	166	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A RAW	Columbia Fireflies	—	83	65	29	9	0	0	15	10	2	6	3	446	561	585	1.146	138	518	12	18	501	166	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	481	440	127	20	8	3	34	124	2	42	8	289	342	391	733	102	394	26	7	321	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	481	424	143	25	9	4	50	99	2	42	8	337	410	467	877	130	430	21	10	387	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	—	83	71	25	8	0	0	10	14	2	6	3	352	451	465	916	113	441	17	12	413	166	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	481	442	127	20	8	3	34	124	2	42	8	287	342	389	732	102	388	26	7	321	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	22	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	—	83	71	25	8	0	0	10	14	2	6	3	352	451	465	916	113	441	17	12	413	166	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	481	442	127	20	8	3	34	124	2	42	8	287	342	389	732	102	388	26	7	321	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	24	MLB MLE	KC	0%	380	347	81	15	3	3	27	91	3	13	3	235	295	320	615	85	307	24	7	279	75	-11	+1	-0	-4	+8	-0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	24	MLB CTX	KC	0%	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	233	294	318	612	85	305	0	0	277	75	-0	+0	-0	-0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	KC	22%	370	337	80	15	3	4	27	88	3	12	3	237	299	334	633	97	306	24	7	286	79	-9	+1	-0	-4	+8	-0.4
2029	26	MLB MLE	KC	35%	407	371	88	16	3	5	30	96	3	13	3	239	301	344	645	105	306	24	7	290	83	-8	+1	-0	-4	+9	-0.3
2030	27	MLB MLE	KC	40%	420	382	91	17	3	6	32	100	3	13	3	238	301	344	645	106	305	24	8	290	83	-9	+1	-0	-4	+9	-0.3
2031	28	MLB MLE	KC	44%	425	387	92	17	3	6	32	101	3	12	3	237	300	343	643	106	303	24	8	289	82	-9	+1	-1	-5	+9	-0.4
2032	29	MLB MLE	KC	45%	420	382	90	17	3	6	32	101	3	11	3	235	298	340	638	105	301	24	8	287	81	-10	+1	-1	-4	+9	-0.6
2033	30	MLB MLE	KC	45%	414	377	87	16	3	5	31	101	3	10	3	232	295	332	627	100	299	24	7	283	78	-11	+1	-2	-4	+9	-0.8
2028	25	MLB CTX	KC	22%	82	75	18	3	1	1	6	19	1	3	1	236	298	331	628	95	305	23	7	284	79	-2	+0	-0	-1	+2	-0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	KC	35%	141	129	31	6	1	2	10	33	1	4	1	237	300	339	639	102	304	23	7	288	83	-3	+0	-0	-2	+3	-0.1
2030	27	MLB CTX	KC	40%	169	153	36	7	1	2	13	40	1	5	1	236	299	340	639	103	303	24	8	288	83	-3	+1	-0	-2	+4	-0.1
2031	28	MLB CTX	KC	44%	185	168	38	7	1	2	14	44	1	5	1	235	298	338	636	103	301	24	8	287	82	-4	+1	-0	-2	+4	-0.2
2032	29	MLB CTX	KC	45%	187	170	38	7	1	2	14	45	1	5	1	233	297	335	632	102	299	24	7	285	81	-4	+1	-1	-2	+4	-0.2
2033	30	MLB CTX	KC	45%	187	170	38	7	1	2	14	46	1	5	1	230	293	328	621	98	298	25	7	280	78	-5	+1	-1	-2	+4	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	951	865	199	37	6	11	71	227	6	27	6	230	293	325	618	95	297	24	7	285	86	-22	+3	-2	-10	+21	-1.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	591	136	25	4	8	49	155	4	18	4	230	293	327	620	96	297	24	8	285	86	-15	+2	-1	-7	+14	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		—	3340	3038	749	139	29	37	251	801	24	130	32	247	309	348	657	101	321	24	8	295	86	-66	+8	-5	-30	+60	-3.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	591	146	27	6	7	49	156	5	25	6	247	310	349	659	102	323	24	8	295	86	-15	+2	-1	-7	+14	-0.8

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Willie Harrislast yr '11 career totals — 10 seasons, 2,743 PA	4.1	2,743	39	106	241	331	351	-11	-2	5.3	6.2
/162	664	9	26	-2.7	-0.5	1.3	pk7: 7
#2Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	4.1	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
/162	664	20	13	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#3Jake Powell'30-'45 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,767 PA	4.2	2,767	22	65	248*	294*	373*	-14	-2	0.2	2.0
/162	664	5	16	-3.3	-0.5	0.0	pk7: 4
#4Eric Young Jr.last yr '18 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,925 PA	2.9	1,925	13	161	245	312	332	-11	-8	1.2	1.6
/162	664	4	56	-3.9	-2.7	0.4	pk7: 2
#5Eric Owens'95-'03 * career totals — 7 seasons, 2,576 PA	3.9	2,576	26	126	253*	303*	334*	-18	+1	-0.9	0.4
/162	664	7	32	-4.5	+0.2	-0.2	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	1.4	952	13	27	237	297	341	-6	+0	0.1	0.2
/162	664	9	19	-4.0	+0.0	0.1	pk7: 0
#6Ray Coleman'47-'52 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,902 PA	2.9	1,902	20	19	249*	297*	399*	-12	-1	-0.1	-0.1
/162	664	7	7	-4.4	-0.4	-0.0	pk7: -0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Luke Pelzer (OGILVIE)	24	55	30	70	49	233/293/317	85	307	2	11	24%	7%	75	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Kyle Wren 2015 · AA	24	56→62	36→40	60	45	261/303/339	77	319	2	32	18%	5%	82	-0.0	253/304/319	66	314	2	28	19%	7%	78	-0.3	254/314/331	77	325	3	25	21%	8%	82	-0.0
✕Jacob Young 2023 · A	24	48→57	36→40	62→60	47	224/291/290	66	287	3	28	22%	7%	68	-1.0	246/305/325	79	305	4	32	19%	6%	80	-0.1	242/306/331	89	291	7	29	18%	7%	83	+0.1
✕Zack Granite 2017 · AA	24	54→61	36→40	59→60	48	253/298/324	71	290	3	30	14%	6%	77	-0.3	250/294/327	77	282	4	24	12%	6%	76	-0.4	247/289/316	70	276	4	22	12%	5%	69	-0.7
✕Hak-Ju Lee 2014 · AAA	23	54→59	39→40	60→55	47	252/309/349	97	323	5	27	22%	7%	87	+0.4	213/271/293	80	303	6	20	29%	7%	61	-1.5	201/259/269	69	292	5	20	31%	7%	48	-1.2
✕Yoyner Fajardo 2024 · AA	25	53→58	41→40	59→60	46	251/305/353	101	312	7	31	21%	7%	86	+0.3	245/302/330	85	317	5	25	23%	7%	80	-0.1	248/308/313	65	326	3	26	23%	7%	75	-0.2
✕Ryan Rogowski 2008 · A	24	47→46	39→40	61→55	50	219/289/319	100	273	4	25	20%	8%	74	-0.6	218/286/303	85	270	5	25	20%	8%	69	-0.9	215/286/284	70	259	5	32	18%	8%	63	-1.1
✕Ian Miller 2016 · AA	24	52→59	35→40	59→60	43	241/281/304	64	308	1	31	22%	5%	65	-1.2	248/294/311	63	311	2	35	20%	5%	72	-0.7	243/292/329	86	310	6	35	22%	5%	74	-0.5
✕Cody Milligan 2024 · AA	25	52→56	38→40	57→60	48	239/308/327	88	324	4	20	26%	8%	82	-0.0	209/272/298	89	302	5	28	30%	7%	62	-1.4	189/253/270	81	279	4	34	31%	7%	46	-1.8
✕Darrell Ceciliani 2014 · AA	24	53→56	40→45	57→55	41	250/296/347	97	333	6	22	26%	5%	82	-0.0	249/289/362	113	326	10	21	25%	5%	83	+0.1	247/287/366	119	316	11	21	25%	4%	82	-0.0
✕Travis Jankowski 2015 · AA	24	52→62	35→40	61→65	46	243/295/306	63	309	2	36	21%	7%	72	-0.7	257/321/333	76	332	3	32	21%	8%	88	+0.4	260/330/331	71	340	2	35	22%	9%	89	+0.4
✕Jose Constanza 2008 · A	24	53→63	36→40	58→60	46	248/300/313	65	321	3	26	22%	7%	75	-0.5	263/312/328	65	318	1	30	16%	7%	82	+0.0	288/334/346	58	335	2	37	14%	6%	91	+0.6
✕Matt Angle 2010 · AA	24	55→57	35→40	55→60	49	255/312/318	63	317	3	23	20%	7%	81	-0.1	248/304/312	64	310	4	26	20%	7%	77	-0.3	246/305/310	63	310	4	28	20%	7%	74	-0.5
✕Emeel Salem 2009 · A	24	52	37→40	60→55	47	244/288/320	76	290	4	30	17%	6%	72	-0.7	236/287/311	75	276	3	20	14%	6%	70	-0.8	237/290/311	73	275	2	20	14%	6%	67	-0.9
✕Charlie Tilson 2018 · AAA	25	54→60	40	57→55	47	259/307/360	100	305	6	22	17%	6%	88	+0.5	232/278/302	70	294	4	13	21%	5%	65	-1.2	238/284/300	62	307	2	16	22%	5%	64	-0.8
✕Thomas Coyle 2015 · A	24	47→51	39→40	58→55	48	223/292/312	89	292	5	21	24%	8%	73	-0.6	199/264/292	93	285	6	19	30%	8%	58	-1.7	177/246/271	94	259	6	22	32%	8%	45	-1.4
✕Leon Johnson 2008 · A	23	48	40	58→60	50	227/300/324	96	299	6	22	24%	9%	78	-0.3	217/281/294	77	280	5	17	23%	7%	65	-1.2	198/260/219	21	246	0	22	18%	6%	36	-0.7
✕James Rapoport 2009 · AA	24	47→55	36→40	56→55	42	224/267/287	63	291	3	22	24%	5%	57	-1.8	237/299/305	68	286	4	11	17%	8%	74	-0.6	236/307/296	60	278	3	8	15%	8%	73	-0.6
✕John Andreoli 2014 · AA	24	55→58	36→45	61→60	49	251/319/328	77	334	2	32	24%	9%	86	+0.3	228/302/314	86	316	5	34	27%	9%	77	-0.3	212/294/333	120	304	10	33	31%	10%	76	-0.4
✕Kyle Mottice 2019 · A	23	49	35→30	58→55	54	226/330/288	62	269	2	18	15%	9%	84	+0.1	231/325/290	59	283	2	18	17%	8%	82	-0.0	240/333/283	43	295	0	25	16%	7%	79	-0.1
●Michael Bourn 2007 · AAA	24	55→62	39→45	64→65	46	256/310/349	93	332	5	31	24%	7%	87	+0.4	252/310/342	90	322	5	43	22%	8%	86	+0.3	273/334/374	101	348	5	38	21%	8%	103	+1.7

Luke Pelzer

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps